Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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961
FNUS22 KWNS 141826
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AREA ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN CA. LOCALLY CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY MON MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...BUT LIVE FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR CURRENTLY PRECLUDING
AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA...SEE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE NRN/ERN EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS HAS BEEN SHRUNK BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH RH VALUES ABOVE
25 PERCENT AND/OR WEAKER WINDS IN THESE AREAS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF
15-20 MPH TO COINCIDE WITH RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT AND DRY FUELS
STILL APPEARS TO EXIST MAINLY FROM S-CNTRL KS INTO WRN OK AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WRN N TX MON AFTERNOON.

..GLEASON.. 02/14/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0252 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID LEVELS...INITIALLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER
PARTS OF THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN CONUS WILL SLIGHTLY DEAMPLIFY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CORRESPONDING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF A
SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MULTIPLE SFC CYCLONES/TROUGHS WILL
TRACK EWD FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SERN CONUS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS.

...SRN CA COASTAL RANGES/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND VICINITY...
AFTER ONLY MODEST RH RECOVERY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY
NIGHT...LOW RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE ON MONDAY...WITH
MINIMUM RH IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S...POTENTIALLY NEAR
90F IN SOME AREAS...WHICH ARE WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL READINGS. A
RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT -- INITIALLY -- WILL SUPPORT
AREAS OF STRONG NELY TO ENELY SFC WINDS. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20-30
MPH MAY OCCUR -- STRONGEST THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS.
ELEVATED TO METEOROLOGICALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM D1/SUN INTO D2/MON.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE LOWEST RH ON D2/MON. THIS
COULD TEMPER THE OVERALL FIRE-WEATHER RISK TO SOME EXTENT.
FURTHERMORE...SUFFICIENT LIVE-FUEL MOISTURE MAY EXIST TO LIMIT THE
FIRE-WEATHER RISK IN SOME AREAS. THESE FACTORS PRECLUDE CRITICAL
DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED...AS CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER
SOME AREAS OF DRY FUELS.

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN KS...CNTRL/WRN OK...NRN TX...TX/OK
PANHANDLES...
A MODESTLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SFC CYCLONES/TROUGHS...AND A SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SE OF THE SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT
BASIN. ANTICYCLONIC TRAJECTORIES TO THE NE OF THE SRN-PLAINS SEGMENT
OF THE SFC RIDGE WILL MANIFEST DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-ENHANCED
WARMING/DRYING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT RH VALUES IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WNWLY TO NWLY SFC WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ACROSS THE ELEVATED AREA...WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY DIURNALLY ENHANCED
VERTICAL MIXING INTO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. FURTHERMORE...
BELOW-NORMAL RECENT PRECIPITATION SUPPORTS DRY FINE FUELS...
WARRANTING THE ELEVATED DESIGNATION. CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF
EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH IS LIMITED...THOUGH BORDERLINE-
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ENSUE IN SOME AREAS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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