Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 190729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190729
SDZ000-NDZ000-190900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN SD...FAR S-CNTRL/SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 190729Z - 190900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK COULD PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS
PROGRESSING E/NE FROM N-CNTRL SD.

DISCUSSION...CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS HAS SUPPORTED A
FLARE-UP IN INTENSITY OF A CLUSTER ALONG THE CORSON/DEWEY COUNTY
LINE IN N-CNTRL SD. RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION IS QUITE
ELEVATED...ROOTED BETWEEN 700-650 MB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND A 12K FT CLOUD BASE SAMPLED BY KMBG AT 0712Z.
WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER LIKELY EXHIBIT MODEST
SPEED SHEAR PER BIS VWP DATA AOA 3 KM AGL...FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AMIDST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH
WEAKER DOWNSTREAM LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY/SHEAR...OVERALL SETUP APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS BEYOND ABOUT 09Z.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 09/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45690083 46130036 46399919 46299855 45989791 45669786
            45419811 45299850 45159903 45089952 45080010 45140046
            45240079 45690083




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