Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 280404
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1204 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple low pressure systems pass offshore tonight through
Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:04 PM Update: Moisture continues to stream north across the
area with rain and drizzle to continue overnight. Fog has
developed and is dense in many areas. The main update at this
time was to issue a dense fog advisory until 6 AM as the
combination of high dew points well above freezing, snow melt,
and light wind is a good recipe for dense fog and most
observation sites are reporting poor visibility early this
morning.

Previous Discussion...
Rain looks to increase in coverage after daybreak Thursday as
upr level jet streak intensifies over Quebec and places the FA
in right entrance region of jet. Total rainfall on Thursday
expected to range from 0.25 inches over the North Woods to as
much as one inch along the Downeast coast, especially over
Washington County. Given numerous rounds of rainfall moving
through interior Downeast over the next several days have issued
a Flood Watch through Friday (see hydro section below).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rainy weather will continue Thursday night into Friday as low
pressure develops along a stalled frontal boundary. Areas of fog
will continue to be possible Thursday night into Friday morning.
Model guidance has trended upward with QPF totals. Expecting 1.5
to 2 inches in the North Woods. 2 to 3.5 inches of QPF are
forecast for elsewhere, with the higher amounts over Downeast
Maine into Southeastern Aroostook County. A Flood Watch will
remain in effect through Friday evening from a line extending
from Dover-Foxcroft to Danforth southward. Here, confidence is
highest in heavy rainfall and flooding impacts.

As the new low moves northeastward offshore and strengthens,
colder air will get drawn into the region. This will cause
precipitation to change to wet snow over part of the area later
Friday into Friday night. Potentially even Thursday night near
the Quebec border. Conditions will be favorable for banding to
set up. However, there is still disagreement among models as to
where the snow axis sets up over the area.

The NAM is the furthest west, bringing heavy snow near the
Quebec border. The rest of the region would remain rain before
ending as some light snow or snow showers Saturday morning. The
RGEM, CMC, and ECMWF models are further east, with accumulating
snow near the New Brunswick border Friday night into Saturday
morning. The GFS is in the middle, with a band of accumulating
snow over much of the North, and possibly into the Bangor
region. Large spread exists amongst each ensemble suite as well.
Given the uncertainty, decided to stay close to WPC guidance
regarding snowfall. Advisory level snowfall will be possible
where the snow band sets up, and possibly low-end warning
snowfall in higher terrain.

Regardless, precipitation will mostly taper off Saturday
morning, though some snow showers could linger over the North
and close to the New Brunswick border through the day.
Northwesterly winds will increase in the wake of the low,
gusting 35-45 mph at times. Low temperatures Friday night will
be in the 20s to near 30 degrees in the North and lower 30s near
Bangor and Downeast. Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s in the
North, and lower 40s for Bangor and Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build into the area Saturday night into
Sunday as the aforementioned low departs. This will end any
leftover snow showers and allow winds to gradually diminish. The
high will remain in control at least through Monday night.
Models show another low pressure system approaching towards
midweek, but details remain uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR, occasional VLIFR, conditions are expected
across the region tonight through Thursday with occasional rain
and fog. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots tonight through Thursday.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday night...IFR or lower likely in RA and patchy fog. Winds
light and variable.

Friday...IFR or lower probable. Low chance for rain mixing with
or changing to snow in the afternoon across the North. NW winds
G15-25KT possible. LLWS possible at southern terminals in the
afternoon.

Friday night-Saturday morning...IFR or lower possible with snow
possibly mixed with rain at Northern terminals and rain
possibly mixed with snow at southern terminals. NW winds 15-20KT
G25-35KT possible with LLWS also possible at southern terminals
Friday night.

Saturday afternoon...Becoming VFR southern terminals and MVFR at
northern terminals with -SHSN. NW winds 10-15KT G20-35KT
possible.

Saturday night...Mainly VFR. NW winds G20-25KT possible.

Sunday-Monday...Mainly VFR. NW winds 5-15KT, G20KT possible.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of
the waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters, due
to seas tonight into Thursday morning. Conditions are then
expected to be below small craft advisory levels through the
remainder of Thursday. Rain and fog tonight through Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Fog and rain will continue to reduce visibility on
the waters Thursday night. As low pressure passes to the east,
northwest winds and seas will build above Small Craft Advisory
criteria by Friday morning. Winds are likely to reach gale
force Friday night into Saturday before dropping back to SCA
levels Saturday night. Winds and seas subside below SCA criteria
Sunday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rains over the next several day will accelerate snowmelt over
the area. The snowpack is not quite ripe for melt yet, but with
heavy rainfall and somewhat saturated soils, standing water could be
an issue before water enters the main stem rivers. In the north,
main stem rivers will mostly be able to absorb the additional input.
However the Piscataquis and Mattawamkeag River Basins are at risk
for reaching minor flood level late this week/early next week
respectively. The Penobscot will be slightly less impacted, but some
points on the lower reaches could reach action stage. In the far
north, the additional water input may be enough to finally move the
ice on the Saint John. A Flood Watch has been issued for portions of
the Central Highlands into interior Downeast through the day on
Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
     Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through Friday evening
     for MEZ011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/TWD/Buster
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...CB/TWD/Buster/Clark
Marine...CB/TWD/Buster/Clark
Hydrology...Buster/Maloit


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