Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
633 FXUS65 KGGW 080900 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 300 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - The rain and wind continues to diminish through Thursday as drier air moves in from the east. - Flooding concerns remain minimal as a lot of the rain has soaked into the ground. Within bank rises are expected, but flooding is not at this time. - There is high confidence for warmer than normal and mostly dry conditions from this weekend into much of next week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A slow-moving strong spring storm system will continue to weaken and become more disorganized. Rain showers and a stray thunderstorm will continue at times into Thursday, particularly toward central Montana. Relatively drier air infiltrating from the northeast is just enough to elevate winds into Lake Wind Advisory criteria through this afternoon. A flat ridge will push in from the Pacific Northwest across the Northern Rockies later this week, allowing for a drying and warming trend to begin. CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST: There is medium confidence on the precise timing of when shower activity will subside through Thursday, with the winds and precipitation chances kept near or slightly above the NBM. High confidence exists on a warming trend this weekend, as deterministic forecast highs in the 70s and lower 80s are currently on the lower end of the ensemble ranges. -Zanker && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0830Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS: Low VFR/MVFR/IFR DISCUSSION: Ceilings will generally straddle MVFR/IFR threshold with lingering low clouds and scattered rain showers from a weakening low pressure system. There is medium (60%) confidence for gradual improvement to low end VFR across the TAF sites by 02Z. WINDS: Northeast at 15-20 kts gusting to around 30 kts through this afternoon, becoming north at 5-10 kts in the evening. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow