Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 280750
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
350 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An elongated area of low pressure will move slowly east and off the
Carolina coast this morning. The low will rapidly strengthen well
off the coast on Friday, while high pressure moves across the
Southeast. A weak cold front will drop into WV and VA late Sunday
and then lift north late Monday. A stronger cold front will approach
the region on Tuesday and move across the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...

...Flood Watch remains in effect through 8 PM this evening for
the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain of NC...

As of 06Z the surface low was located invof southern Sampson county,
with the axis of strongest convection currently over the
southern/central Coastal Plain, immediately east of the low and
extending SSW along the quasi-stationary attendant front. The cold
front approaching from the west has stalled over the Foothills.
Showers and isolated storms continue between the two fronts,
coincident with the 850-700 mb f-gen max over the eastern Piedmont
and Sandhills of NC. The low over southeast NC and the attendant
front should continue slowly east and offshore through this morning.
Once the low shifts offshore this morning, the cold front to the
west will begin moving eastward into central NC, with rain ending
from W-E through the afternoon. The front should be through the area
by tonight, with cool high pressure building into the area in its
wake. Meanwhile aloft, the s/w over the lower MS Valley should
continue eastward through the Deep South and Southeast today, then
swing NE off and along the Carolina and mid-Atlantic coasts tonight.

Precipitation: Per the SPC mesoanalysis, PWATs range from about 1.0
inch just east of the Triad to 1.5 inches over the far southern
Coastal Plain. While there may be some additional light to moderate
rainfall between the Triad and Triangle that could produce half an
inch to an inch of rain during the next few hours, the heaviest,
most persistent rainfall should be over the eastern Piedmont and
Sandhills, with additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches possible
through this afternoon.

Temperatures: Highs will be lowest in the northeast where the rain
and cloud cover lingers longest, with low/mid 50s expected, while in
the west where the weather should dry out earliest and sun may try
to peek out, highs could rise into the low 60s. Tonight, skies
should be clear, although winds could stay stirred through a good
part of the night. Given the CAA and clear skies, expect lows
tonight mainly in the mid to upper 30s, possibly cooler if/where the
winds go light/calm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

* Breezy conditions with gusts of 25 to 30 mph on Friday
* Drier and warmer with a good deal of sunshine

The upper trough associated with much of the rain on Wednesday and
today will be closing off near the New England coast on Friday with
a robust northwesterly flow aloft across the Carolinas. Heights at
500mb will rise 8 to 12m from Friday morning to Friday evening. A
dry airmass will be in place during the day with PW values of 0.25
to 0.5 inches or a little more than 50% of normal. Surface low
pressure well off the mid-Atlantic coast will rapidly deepen on
Friday as it approaches the Canadian Maritimes. The pressure
gradient between the low and high pressure moving east across the
northeastern Gulf Coast will result in breezy conditions with
northwest to westerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35
mph. With a northwest flow aloft, some lee troughing is expected
across the western Piedmont with afternoon dew points holding in the
lower to mid 30s, further east the flow will be more westerly to
even southwesterly across the Coastal Plain allowing some dew point
recovery. RH values will drop to between 25 and 35% during the
afternoon, lowest in the Triad. We will need to monitor for possible
elevated fire weather conditions but given the precipitation over
the past couple of days, fuels may be wet enough to limit the
threat. Highs on Friday will range from mid 60s across the northern
Coastal Plain to the upper 60s in the Triangle to near 70 in the
Triad, western Piedmont and SC border counties.

As the flow aloft relaxes and flattens on Friday night, a couple of
upper air disturbances will track east across the mid-Atlantic
resulting in a minor increase in moisture and some high cloudiness.
Lows on Friday night will range in the lower to mid 40s. -Blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 AM Thursday...

* Turning warmer this weekend with highs in the upper 70s to lower
  80s on Easter Sunday.
* Best chance of showers and possibly some storms late Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

Saturday through Sunday night: The upper air pattern will feature a
brisk westerly to west-northwesterly flow across the mid-Atlantic
and the Carolinas through the weekend with the most active flow
extending from the northern Plains into New England. Surface high
pressure centered over northern FL on Saturday morning will shift
offshore with a southwesterly low level flow extending across the
Southeast and into the Carolinas through the weekend. A developing
frontal zone across the OH Valley on Saturday will extend east and
drop into WV and VA on Sunday and into southeastern VA late Sunday
night. NWP guidance has been trending southward with the frontal
position on Sunday night. Expect dry weather and a mix of sunshine
and some clouds on Saturday with continued warming. Highs will range
in the lower to mid 70s which is about 5 to 10 degrees above
average. Lows on Saturday night will range around 50. Clouds will
increase from the north and northwest on Sunday and especially
Sunday night. There is a small risk of some spotty rain near the VA
border on Sunday night with rain chances less than 20%. Highs on
Sunday will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s which is about 10 to
15 degrees above average. Lows will range in the 50s.

Monday through Wednesday night: The pattern will become more
amplified and faster across the eastern CONUS during the first half
of the work week. A storm system moving into CA over the weekend
will move into the Four Corners region on Monday and then across the
Plains on Tuesday and into the eastern Great Lakes by late Wednesday
with the mid/upper level trough axis forecast to approach the
southern Appalachians late Tuesday and move across the mid-
Atlantic/Carolinas on Wednesday.

On Monday a weak cold front will likely be extending across southern
VA with a region of enhanced cloudiness extending into NC. The front
should lift slowly north through Monday night with the best forcing
for ascent focused near and north of the front. While most of the
precipitation associated with this system should be in VA, there`s a
small threat of some spotty rain across far northern NC. Otherwise,
expect warm conditions with a southwest breeze. Highs on Monday will
mainly range in the lower 80s although highs may be confined to the
mid and upper 70s near the VA border in proximity to the front.

As the upper trough moves east across the MS/MO Valleys on Tuesday,
a deep southwesterly flow will transport deep moisture across the
Southeast with PW values of 1.0 to 1.25 inches across central NC by
Monday night into Tuesday which is about 150 to 175% of normal.
After an initial disturbance moves across the Carolinas early
Tuesday, PW values and forcing for ascent may relax a bit before
surging up again late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper
trough and associated cold front move across the area. There still
remains uncertainty with the timing of the front but it appears the
greatest precipitation chances are late Tuesday night into Wednesday
afternoon. Have included a slight chance of Thunderstorms for at
least parts of central NC on Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat of
stronger storms will likely depend on the timing of the convection
which could take advantage of greater instability around the time of
peak heating. Highs on Tuesday will range in the upper 70s to lower
80s with notably cooler highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower
70s. -Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: Fairly high confidence IFR/LIFR cigs will
prevail through 12Z at the eastern 3 terminals and through at least
06Z in the Triad (KINT/KGSO), with the exception of a few brief
periods of MVFR cigs. Vsbys should generally be VFR or MVFR, with
some brief drops to IFR possible. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms will persist, with the axis of convection slowly
shifting eastward through the night. The rain should start to move
out of central NC during the day Thu and be east of KRWI by 00Z Fri.
Cigs should gradually lift back to VFR from west to east behind the
convection through the morning/early aft, with VFR expected
everywhere by 00Z Fri. Northerly to nely winds should become more
northerly at most terminal tonight, then nwly by Thu aft/eve. There
will likely be periods of gusts in the 16-22 kt range, especially
Thu morn/aft. -KC

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through Monday. Gusty winds
of 20-30 kts are expected from the W/NW on Fri and from the SW on
Sat. -Danco

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ007>011-024>028-
040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...KC/Danco


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