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000
FXUS62 KTBW 261431
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1031 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Dry and warm atmosphere remains over the region while a frontal
boundary sags into the Deep South tightening the pressure
gradient between the persistent surface ridging over the area to
produce occasionally gusty easterly winds today through this
evening. This stronger E low level flow will keep the Bay and Gulf
breezes pinned to the immediate coast allowing interior areas to
remain warm today and through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions continue with FEW-SCT fair wx cu field around 5k ft
today and increasing and occasionally gusty easterly winds with the
Gulf sea breeze pinned to the coast. Expect an evening easterly
surge before winds slowly decrease overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...
Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Clear skies and temperatures in the 60s across the Sunshine State.
A persistent upper level ridge slides and builds along the US
East Coast. This will keep dry airmass and rain free conditions
through the forecast period. Easterly winds gradually become
breezy today and over the weekend, but attempt to shift onshore in
areas along the coast this afternoon. Highs climb up to near 90
but dewpoints remain in the 60s, which would make conditions feel
a more comfortable. Increasing clouds should keep slightly cooler
conditions over the interior, but temperatures get toasty along
the coast on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN-THU)...
Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

By early next week, model guidance brings an disturbance to move north
of the area resulting in gusty winds as the pressure gradient tightens.
Winds should decrease through the first half of the week and the
sea breeze returns at least to coastal areas. Afternoon highs warm
up into the low 90s areawide while overnight lows stay in the
60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

High pressure ridge prevails across the Gulf waters through the
period. Easterly winds shifting onshore each afternoon remaining
below 15 knots with seas of around 2 feet or less through the end
of the week. Then, the interaction between the ridge and a
disturbance moving north of the area could bring cautionary level
winds to the waters for the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

High pressure continues to dominate across fire districts through
the next several days. Minimum humidities are expected to be at or
just below critical values each afternoon. Easterly winds increase
through the day and should shift onshore at the immediate coast. As
a result, high dispersions are anticipated in some areas during the
weekend. Winds should remain below Red Flag criteria during this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  68  86  68 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  89  66  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  87  65  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  89  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  89  60  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  87  71  85  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

RJD