Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 301717 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1217 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WITH GRADUAL EROSION/DEPARTURE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY AFFECT HIGHS A BIT ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES AT THIS POINT AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. DAYS ARE STILL QUITE LONG AND QUICK WARM UPS
ARE LIKELY ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS SEEM ON TRACK.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRATUS EAST RIVER...WITH PATCHY FOG WEST RIVER THIS MORNING. SLOW
STRATUS MOVEMENT WILL KEEP EASTERN COUNTIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF. BUFKIT
PROFILES SUGGEST CAP TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE TOO WARM FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...BUT CANT RULE OUT A
HAIL/HIGH WIND THREAT FOR CORSON/DEWEY BEFORE THE STORMS
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF AN ELEVATED MODE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER NAM/ABRWRF
AND SREF ALL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY FOR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAVE US UNSTABLE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM OVER OUR REGION TRANSITIONS
FROM WEST NORTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST AS MEAN TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHWEST US. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING LINGERING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE CWA
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST US AND A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN US.
THEREFORE...SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH AND
ACROSS OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE MODELS ALSO DISAGREE ON THE
TIMING OF A SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE EC QUICKER. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EAST SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MOST
OF TONIGHT. MORE LOW CIGS COULD DEVELOP TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING IN
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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