Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 031717 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1217 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD
DECK AS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
BASED ON THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...MOST NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH MAINLY RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. AS THE MCS CONTINUES EAST...EXPECT A CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE. THAT SAID...MODELS SUGGEST THE
PERIPHERY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE SO THERE MAY BE
EXPANSION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
MOVES EAST AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THIS HIGH WILL KEEP US DRY FOR MOST OF TODAY/TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS. WE WILL SEE A SLOW MOVING 500MB WAVE LIFT OVERHEAD
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US IN STABLE EASTERLY
FLOW...BUT MODELS DO GENERATE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS BEGINNING TO
FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEVADA EJECTS ENERGY INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DAKOTAS. AT THE SFC DRIER AIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES. ON SAT/SAT NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN AND SFC FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY THE REGION
WILL DRY OUT AND THE DRY AIR WILL LOWER THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUE.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
70S...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 OR ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MIX OUT TO
MOSTLY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TNT. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK



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