Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 010737
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
237 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 236 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

The nearly stacked sfc-500mb low over far NW MN early this morning
will slowly exit across S Ontario this afternoon-Thursday. The
result for our area will continued NW flow overhead. The pressure
gradient will weaken through the day today as high pressure building
across NE shifts a ridge over our area, but still could expect some
20-25kt wind gusts through early afternoon. The sfc ridge will be
directly overhead 03-09Z Thursday, before sliding across MN during
the daylight hours Thursday. Warmer air will be on the return later
Thursday. Sfc temps should top out in the mid 70s to mid 80s
Thursday, warmest southwest.

More zonal flow-subtle ridging will move through the Dakotas
Thursday night aloft. However, there will be small waves in this
flow and a sfc trough extending from N Alberta through W SD at 06Z
Friday.

850mb temps could top out near 20C by daybreak Friday. Despite
additional clouds and precip, sfc temps should still top out in the
low 80s for most. The trough should be across central SD by 12z, and
then near the SD/MN border by 18Z. As a result, the best chance of
thunderstorms will be over the E third of the CWA Friday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

A western CONUS ridge and downstream trof should dominate the long
wave flow pattern over the region through the long term. One decent
looking system will be in the process of pulling away from the
region at the beginning of the period. Weak energy aloft along with
coolish temps at the mid levels may contribute to some afternoon
showers on Saturday in the eastern cwa.  Otherwise building heights
aloft and a generally dry lower troposphere should spell mostly dry
for the remainder of the long term.  Temperatures overall look to
favor near or slightly above normal during the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

Low vfr/mvfr mixing layer clouds will continue to move across the
region behind a low pressure area to our north through tonight and
into Wednesday. Also, west to northwest winds will remain
breezy/windy through tonight and into Wednesday in the 15 to 25 knot
range with gusts to 30 knots or so. The winds will fall off
Wednesday evening along with clearing skies.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK


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