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FXAK67 PAJK 302252

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
252 PM AKDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Weak ridge will remain over the area through Sun. A
weak low will move e toward haida gwaii but dissipate by late sun
afternoon. Made only small changes to the forecast overall as it
still looked good for the most part.

Looks like some drizzle will develop along much of the outer coast
by late evening then diminish late Sun morning. Some fog is likely
especially in the more fog-prone areas by late this evening. Much
of the cloud cover will be of the stratus or stratocumulus
variety...and there could be a few showers over the far southeast
area tonight as they have a little deeper moist layer to work
with and minor shortwaves to help trigger them. There is also a
slight chance for rain around Yakutat tonight as weak shortwave
passes over them.

Overall...winds will be diminishing tonight then increase again
Sun due to local effects on the inner channels. Currently think
winds should stay below SCA levels but Cross Sound may be a close
call late this afternoon and early evening. The gulf water winds
should diminish some tonight then increase a bit Sun afternoon
with largest changes close to the outer coast due to local
effects. Did make a few wind direction changes in Glacier Bay and
a few other areas. Tweaked wind speeds in a few locations as well
(mainly to lower them in the more sheltered areas) but overall
winds were in good shape.

.LONG TERM...We think traffic only wonderful when it flows
smoothly without sudden detours. Likewise we christen a forecast
as wonderful when it needs no synoptic revisions. This is just
such a forecast.

Sunday night into Monday we find a ridge parked across Southeast
Alaska. With low level onshore flow as well as stability aloft,
we will continue with the idea of drizzle as a good possibility
along the coast. Otherwise, northwest winds in the low levels
inland should keep skies partly cloudy. Aside from a thermal
gradient driving northwest winds up to small craft offshore of
Prince of Wales Island, winds will remain relatively light
through the period.

A short-wave dropping from the Northern Bering Sea will separate
from its parent trough extending from the Arctic today and tonight.
The resulting upper low will cross into the western Gulf Monday
night. This will bring some rain to the Panhandle by mid- week.
But the rain should be relatively short-lived as the low exits
southeast. Thus Southeast dries out again after Thursday from
north to south. After a brief cool-down under the low`s influence
mid-week, temperatures will once again rebound. How warm, it
remains to be seen, but the ECMWF hints of 70s by the weekend. For
now, we do show a representative warming trend with highs reaching
higher into the 60s.

Few changes were needed. Forecast confidence good.


.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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