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FXAK67 PAJK 301401
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
601 AM AKDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Today will see a weak trough move over SE Alaska ahead of a strong
front in the Gulf of Alaska. This trough, along with plenty of
low level moisture, will be enough to keep some scattered showers
around the northern part of the region through the day. Areas
south of Sitka are less likely to see these showers...though there
will be an increased chance of low clouds and morning fog in the
farther south areas.

Marine areas in the Gulf will see winds kick up to Gale force
this afternoon and rain.

Overnight the front will move on shore and bring rain everywhere.
This system is bringing a bit of warmer air with it so all
locations near sea level will see rain as the predominate
precipitation type tonight and Friday.

The winds will also make it farther inland tonight with many
TAF locations expected to see low level wind shear...including the
Juneau area.

Models continue to be in good agreement throughout the short term
with above average forecast confidence.

.LONG TERM...The strongest winds associated with tonight`s front
will be over by the start of the extended range forecast Friday
morning. Gales in Clarence Strait will diminish to 20 kts by
Friday evening. Likewise for small craft winds further north over
the inner channels.

The upcoming front will also advect in a significant amount of
warmer low level air. Daytime highs and overnight lows on Friday
are expected to be noticeably warmer than today, but by Saturday
morning, colder air will advect in from the west and cool things
down again.

Categorical precipitation will remain widespread over southeast
Alaska through Saturday night. For Friday night, am expected just
about everywhere except the highways to see rain or, at worst, a
rain snow mix with no accumulation. With the the cool down on
Saturday, rain will transition back to snow over much of the
northern half of the panhandle by saturday night.

Updates to the extended forecast limited mostly to saturday and
Saturday night. Used a blend of GFS and ECMWF for pressure and GFS
as a foundation for winds. PoP updated through Saturday afternoon
using NAMDNG5 and Canadian NH. QPF from GFS. Temps adjusted using
GFS MOS. Overall forecast confidence is average.


&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ023-
     027.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ017-
     022.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ035-036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>034-053.
&&

$$

EZ/Fritsch

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