Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 230852
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
352 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening frontal boundary will slowly lift north through the
area as a warm front today. The next cold front crosses the
area late Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a frontal bndry just south of the fa
with strong high pressure centered over New England. The front
will slowly try to slide north through the area today, with
patchy -DZ/-FG continuing north of the front. Also included a
low-end chance of -RA over northern areas though pcpn should
mainly be in the form of -DZ. Some clearing expected over at
least southern areas this aftn as the front slides north, also
allowing temps to rebound a bit into the 60s there late in the
day. Elsewhere, temps expected to max out in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All of the FA enters the warm sector tonight. Not much support
for pcpn but fog will be a good bet, especially after midnight.
Lows near 50 north, in the mid/upr 50s south.

Offshore ridge builds back into the area Sat. Moisture slowly incrs
with the best support for pcpn across the nw Sat aftn and eve.
Otw, pt sunny to mstly cldy and warmer. Highs in the mid 60s
ern shore with the 70s west of the bay. Lows Sat night in the
mid 50s-lwr 60s.

The next cold front approaches from the west Sun morning with the
fropa in the aftn/eve. Models depict a decent feed of moisture
across the mts but it weakens as it moves east into the
Piedmont. Daytime PoPs range from near 30% SE to 50-60% NW.
Highs in the 70s most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No major changes expected the the day 4-7 forecast. Still expecting
a cold frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. The front will be
slowing down as it approaches the area as it becomes nearly parallel
to the upper flow aloft. As such, will need to maintain chance pops
Sun night into Monday for all locations. Am expecting everyone to
see some light rain at some point, and guidance pointed to likely
pops both Sun Night into Monday. However, given that the rain will
be light and not continuous, we opted to just include chance of rain
showers for that period. Once the front moves south of the area, dry
Canadian high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic by
Tuesday, then offshore Wed. The next chance for showers will be
Thursday as the guidance suggests strong warm advection ahead of a
deepening Mississippi Valley low pressure system.

Despite the cool down from this week, temperatures will still be
above normal with temperatures in the upper 50-mid 60s and lows in
the upper 30s/mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Backdoor cold front now S of all sites. Period of ST...IFR/LIFR
CIGs and -DZ through this morning before CIGs slowly/gradually
rise (to at least MVFR - slowest to occur at SBY) as front
retreats back N as warm front this afternoon/eve. Region back
into the warm sector tonight-Sun (though there may be SCT
SHRAs). The next front will cross the area late Sun...w/ another
period of CIG/VSBY restrictions possible during that period.

&&

.MARINE...
Back door cold front has settled south of the region early this
morning, with NNE winds prevailing in its wake. Marine Dense
Fog Advisory in effect for coastal waters S of Parramore
Island/the mouth of the Bay/Currituck Sound through 10 am. SCA
headlines remain in effect for the Ocean N of Cape Charles Light
where seas avg 6-8 ft north and 4-6 ft south. South of Cape
Charles Light, seas that were 5 ft have dropped off to ~ 4ft so
have cancelled the SCA headline. For the Bay/Rivers/Sound, NNE
winds avg 10-15 kt with waves of 2-3 ft in the Bay and genly 1-2
ft for the Rivers and Sound and these winds will slowly
diminish through the late morning. SCA headlines in effect
through 21Z/4pm for far northern coastal waters where NE winds
remain elevated through midday and seas will be slow to subside
to below 5 ft, tapered to 15-18Z farther south.

Otherwise, the front begins to lift back N as a warm front later
today through tonight. Rather weak pressure gradient as this
occurs so winds will be on the light side (mainly 5-10 kt) later
today and tonight as they shift from the NE to the SE and
eventually to the SSW. SW flow increases on Sat but should stay
below SCA criteria. By Saturday night into Sunday, SSW winds
may increase enough for marginal small craft conditions with
gusts to ~20 kt over much of the marine area. This cold front
will pass through the waters on Monday with N to NE winds then
shifting to the N/NW by Tue as Canadian high pressure builds
into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley regions. At this time, not much
cold air associated with this frontal passage so winds/seas look
to genly stay below SCA thresholds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs were set Thu 2/22 at Richmond, Norfolk, and
Elizabeth City. Record high mins were not set as temperatures
plummeted behind the passage of the cold front, falling into the
40s.

* Date: Thu 2/22
* Site: Actual High...Previous Record High

* RIC:  75 F......... 73 (1985)
* ORF:  79 F..........77 (1937)
* ECG:  79 F..........77 (2003)

Very warm temperatures will return over the weekend, record
highs are listed for Sat 2/24 and Sun 2/25.

* Record Highs
* Site: Sat 2/24......Sun 2/25

* RIC:  82 (1985)     83 (1930)
* ORF:  82 (2012)     81 (2017)
* SBY:  77 (2012)     80 (1930)
* ECG:  79 (1985)     78 (2017)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ633-634-
     654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...AJB/MRD
AVIATION...ALB/MAS
MARINE...LKB
CLIMATE...AKQ


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