Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
FXUS61 KAKQ 271952
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
352 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
A cold front approaches from the northwest this evening and
crosses the local area tonight. High pressure returns for Friday
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Cold front lags back in the mountains attm. Partly cloudy-vrb
clouds and breezy SW winds (gusty to about 25 mph) in control
across the FA. A narrow area of showers/isold tstms was tracking
through nrn portions of the FA so far this afternoon and will be
moving to the coast in the next hour or so. Expecting a break
behind this initial area heading into early this eve. 17z/27 RAP13
guidance continues to show a period of higher moisture and at
least weak forcing by mid eve...resulting in carrying chc-likely
PoPs across the FA. PoPs expected to taper off W-E after
midnight. Highest PoPs (50-60%) from the Eastern Shore to the VA
Tidewater this evening...with 25-40% elsewhere. QPF averaging T to
about 0.25" (a bit higher amounts possible on the MD eastern
Shore). The front pushes offshore late tonight into early Fri
morning with clouds decreasing from NW-SE. Lows tonight from the
u40s far NW to around 60F far SE.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc hi pres returns by Fri afternoon. Remaining clouds are
expected to decrease rather quickly Friday morning...with most of
the area becoming sunny before noon. NW winds will be a bit gusty
to 20-25 mph...highest invof bay-atlantic coast into the
afternoon. Highs from the l60s Eastern Shore to around 70F far SW.
Sfc hi pres slides S of the region Sat with zonal flow aloft. Deep
layered WSW flow leads to substantial warming by Sat afternoon.
Mainly SKC Fri night-Sat. Lows Fri night mainly in the l-m40s.
Highs Sat from the u60s-around 70F on the Eastern Shore to the
m-u70s 70s along and W of the I95 corridor.
Hi pres elongated E-W from the SE Conus coast to the wrn gulf
states provides a continuation of a deep layered WSW flo and
mild-warm wx to end the weekend. Lo pres will be tracking into the
NE CONUS by Sun...w/ its trailing cold front sinking S into the FA
by late in the afternoon/eve (but w/ limited moisture). SKC Sat
night w/ lows ranging through the 50s. Sunny-partly cloudy and
breezy Sun w/ Highs from the m-u70s at the coast to the l-m80s
See climate section below for record highs Sat and Sun.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Only chance of pcpn in the long term period is Sun night with a
low chance of rain (20-30%) limited to ne areas in association
with a passing cold front. High pressure builds over the ne/mid
atlantic states thereafter through mid-week with continued above
normal temps. Wed will be the warmest day with highs reaching the
mid-upr 70s; at least ten degrees above normal.
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure is now centered off the coast while a cold
front continues to approach the area from the northwest. The cold
front will cross the area later this evening and will be located
off thecoast by early Friday morning.
Seeing some cumulus pop up across the area this afternoon,
mainly near the coast. The cumulus field is mainly SCT to BKN
with heights around 4000 feet. Winds have also been gusty out of
the south this afternoon near coastal TAF sites with gusts in
excess of 20 knots at times. Winds should die down a bit this
evening before picking backup during the early morning hours.
The cold front will bring a chance of scattered showers to the
area as it continues to progress NW to SE this afternoon and
evening.Recent guidance is still not all that bullish with
bringing lower ceilings/visibilities to the TAF sites through the
forecast period. Have kept VFR conditions in place through the
Outlook: High pressure and VFR conditions build into the region
for Friday and Saturday. Another cold front will approach the
area from the west on Sunday.
Sca headlines remain in place due to a tightening pressure
gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. The strongest winds
are still expected prior to the fropa, which occurs overnight.
With fairly weak caa behind the front, see no need to extend the
sca over the lwr james/sound/southern coastal waters into the day
Fri. Marginal sca conditions are expected however over the bay
through midday Fri in association with the nw flow. Over the
northern coastal waters, 5 ft seas and frequent gusts up to ~25 kt
will continue through at least late Fri aftn, so extended the
headline there. Sub-sca conditions expected thereafter with high
pressure over the area. Another cold front crosses the area Sun
night, with only brief sca conditions possible over the
Record High Temperatures Saturday (10/29) and Sunday (10/30)
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ633-638-654-
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652.