Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280105
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW ANALYZED ALONG THE ERN NC COAST...AND PROGGED
TO SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. STILL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHERN/SE VA...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY
CLEARING. HAD SOME REPORTS OF SLEET WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SE VA...BUT SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S SO NO
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW
MORE HRS...TAPERING OFF BY 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING OFF
AS MUCH AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD...ESP NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. UPPER WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER OFF THE SE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL HELP CREATE
SKC OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AFTN. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT LATE
FRI MORNING AS CAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK... UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDS AND
DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM






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