Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 030022
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
722 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds into the Mid Atlantic through Sunday.
Low pressure passes south of the region Sunday night into Monday.
Another low pressure system crosses the region Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest sfc analysis shows ~1025 mb hi pressure over the
Midwest/Mid-MS Valley with a weak trough of low pressure over the
Mid Atlantic. The trough weakens into tonight as high pressure
slowly builds in from the west. Expect light W/NW winds tonight
with mainly clear skies. Temps will be near to slightly below
normal, with lows in the low/mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather expected for the short term period with sfc high
pressure in the vicinity and fairly zonal flow aloft. Expect NW
flow Sat under a mostly sunny sky and high temps mainly in the
low/mid 50s. Increasing clouds then for Sat night/Sun ahead of the
next low pressure system to affect the area Sun night/Mon. Low
temps Sat night in the low/mid 30s and high temps Sun in the upr
40s to lwr 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Stage is setting up for an unsettled beginning week ahead. Low
pressure develops over the GOM Sunday with a warm front extending
east to the Carolina coast. At the same time, upper level energy is
progged to lift NE along this boundary but encounter somewhat drier
air over the region from high pressure over Ohio. Mid level moisture
increases Sunday night over the area. Support for pcpn remains
disorganized with the best chc for pcpn coming after midnight. Will
keep low chc pops across the west during the evening with chc pops
fa wide after midnight. In-situ wedge scenario will make for a
chilly rain with lows ranging from the mid to upr 30s except near 40
along the coast. Support for pcpn pushes east of the area Monday
morning with weak ridging seen during the afternoon. Thus, lingering
morning rain should give way to pt to mstly cloudy skies during the
aftrn. Highs in the low-mid 50s.  QPF from this first wave will be
rather light, ranging from a few hundredths across the north to less
than one quarter inch across the southeast.

Tricky forecast Tuesday into Wednesday as a complex system effects
the region. Low pressure tracks form near the GOM NE into the KY/TN
border Monday night into Tuesday with the warm front extending east
to the Carolina coast. What makes this forecast problematic is
whether the warm front can lift north into SERN VA/NERN NC Tuesday
afternoon as low pressure tracks NE along the boundary. Upshot here
is that copious amounts of moisture will override the cooler air at
the surface to allow a cool but mainly stratiform rainfall across
the area from about 06Z Tues to 00Z Wed. Pcpn may become more
convective across the SE but will all depend on the location of
the front. Enough model consistency to increase pops to
categorical Tuesday. Even enough support for a period of mdt
rainfall Tuesday. Lows Monday night in the mid 30s NW to mid to
upr 40s SE. Best shot at temps Tuesday attm will range from a
wedged mid 40s across the NW to near 60 across the SE. Pcpn shifts
towards the coast Tuesday night with lows from the upr 30s NW to
near 50 SE.

Lingering trofiness keeps residual moisture across the area Wed with
low chc pops east of I95 Wed. Seasonable with highs 55-60. Lows mid
30s to mid 40s.

Cold front crosses the area Thursday with chc shwrs into the evening
hrs. Seasonable as the CAA lags. Highs in the mid-upr 50s. Pcpn ends
before temps drop Thus evening. Lows by 12Z Friday from the mid 20s
to lwr 30s.

Cold high pressure builds into the area Friday with below normal
temps. Highs Friday 40-45. Lows Fri night upr teens to mid 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 00Z TAF period.
High pressure builds in from the west tonight through Sunday leading
to continued dry weather. A few higher clouds will be possible
across mainly northern portions of the area overnight, any cloud
bases will generally remain above 6000 feet. Winds will be gusty at
times out of the northwest on Sunday.

Outlook: Clouds will begin to increase Saturday night and into
Sunday. The next chance for showers arrives Sunday night, with rain
likely into Tuesday and MVFR conditions at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Secondary CAA surge will quickly increase winds into SCA levels this
evening. BUFKIT suggests a several period of minimal gale force
gusts across the MD coastal waters near buoy 44009 late tonight
and Sat morning. Thus, went ahead and issued a gale warning for
this time frame. Also, given a NW wind, went ahead and added the
eastern VA rivers to the SCA given the progged trajectory/fetch
tonight.

Headlines continue Saturday but expect improving conditions during
the afternoon and evening as high pressure settles over the area.
Waves build to 3-4 ft with 4-6 ft seas.

Winds diminish later Sunday and Monday, before a turn to an easterly
component Tuesday ahead of a complex low pressure system that will
lift northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley. SCA`s are a
possibility but will all depend on the location of a coastal
boundary. Seas may build to around 5 feet once again in the outer
portion of the coastal waters around as early as Tuesday,
potentially lasting through mid week.

A stronger cold front arrives by late in the week with another chc
for headlines.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for ANZ632-634-
     654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ630-631-
     652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ638.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJB/MAS
MARINE...MPR



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