Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ~1022MB SFC BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST, WITH ONLY A WEAK, WAVY INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SE COASTAL PLAIN.
GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING NE ALONG THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NC, WITH KAKQ RADAR SHOWING SOME LGT-MOD SHRAS
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. HV RETAINED A LIGHT CHC
POP EARLY THIS MORNING IN THIS AREA.

OTHERWISE, WITH THE TROUGH WASHING OUT TODAY, BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE TODAY...WITH DEEP LAYERED RETURN FLOW
ADVECTING VERY WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE RGN. PW VALUES INCREASE
INTO THE 1.75-2" RANGE (HIGHEST SE) TODAY, WHICH IN TANDEM WITH
HIGHS IN THE U80S/LOW 90S SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN, SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST (10-15 KT)
AND POOR FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
THUS, DISORGANIZED PULSE CONVECTION IS THE FAVORED STORM MODE FOR
THE DAY, WITH A DEVELOPING (PRE-FRONTAL) LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES SE SERVING AS SUBTLE FOCI FOR ISO TO WIDELY
SCT CONVECTION, MAINLY LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE.
OTHERWISE, A PARTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED W/ HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S INLAND, 85-90 ALONG THE COAST. STRONG LOW LVL MIXING AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW DEWPTS TO FALL OFF A FEW DEGS THIS
AFTN, SO WHILE HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100F ARE
EXPECTED, DROP IN TD`S SHOULD KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW HEAT
HEADLINE CRITERIA. WEAK SHEAR/FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LULL IN
POPS AFTER SUNSET THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
DROP FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST (THIS MORNING) TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES, BECOMING OVERCAST LATE ACROSS THE N/NW (PARTLY CLOUDY
SE). AS FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARDS THEA AREA LATE TONIGHT,
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHRAS/ISO T DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTHWEST...POTENTIALLY REACHING NORTHERN CWA BY DAY BREAK.
THEREFORE WENT WITH A 30-40% POP ACROSS THE NORTH...20% FARTHER
SOUTH. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUGGY WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST AC RS THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY AFTN. UNFORTUNATELY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FA (NAMELY CENTRAL VA/RICHMOND METRO) WHERE PCPN
DEFICITS PAST MONTH OR SO AVG A COUPLE/FEW INCHES, MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT BEST FORCING COINCIDENT WITH 60-70KT RRQ OF
UPPER JET ARRIVING BY THU AFTN AND ORIENTED FROM UPSTATE SC/CENTRAL
NC TOWARDS THE TIDEWATER AREA. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BEST
POP/HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA THU AFTN/EVENING,
GRADUALLY SPREADING SE AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH
INTO NE NC THU NGT/EARLY FRI. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS FAR SE CWA LT THU AND
MUCH OF FRI. OTHERWISE, FOR BULK OF FA...GRADUAL DRYING FM THE NW
TO SE IS INDICATED AS SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VLY.
DROP POPS OFF FOR MOST AREAS THU NGT, BUT DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACRS COASTAL NE NC THROUGH FRI AFTN.
OTHERWISE CLEARING AND BECOMING A BIT DRIER LATE THU THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE M/U80S N...U80S TO L90S S THU.
HIGHS FRI IN THE M/U80S INLAND...L/M80S AT THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. FRONT
REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NC ON SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWING LIFTING BACK
NORTH THROUGH VA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY FOR POSSIBILITY OF
AFTN CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL ALIGN
ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WILL
CARRY CHC POPS INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES NEARBY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOLER AIR ARRIVING NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. WARMEST SUNDAY/MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. COOLER AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT NEAR THE COASTAL VA/NC BORDER WILL KEEP LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND VICINITY THROUGH AT LEAST
23/0800Z. THEREAFTER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WARM
FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK. FOG
MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC...IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN VARIABLE VISIBILITIES OF 1-5SM AND
CIGS FLUCTUATING BTWN 100-1000 FT AGL. AT THIS TIME...KECG AND KSBY
SHOULD BE MOST ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS
1SM POSSIBLE AND CIGS BELOW 500 FT AGL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
LIFT/DISSIPATE BY 23/1400Z.

OTHERWISE...EARLY MORNING SUNSHINE IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT
WILL ALLOW SCT-BKN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY MID TO LATE AFTN
TODAY AND ALL TAF SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IMPACTED. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST BY LATE THIS EVENING...BRINGING A MORE FOCUSED LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL SHUNT PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR SE VA AND NE NC THROUGH
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW ON FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM...TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE ISSUE.
CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE
DIRECTLY. IN THE MEANTIME...AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE
KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SWITCHING ANYWHERE FROM ESE TO S TODAY WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 KT THIS MORNING...BECOMING 10-15 KT BY THIS AFTN
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WNW. A PRE-FRONTAL
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF IT AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE AFTN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT (AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS...GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE OVER OCEAN). THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO THU WITH SHOWERS/STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.
WINDS TURN TO A MORE S-SW DIRECTION TONIGHT...W-NW ON THU...THEN N
THU NIGHT. WAVES GENERALLY 1 FOOT THIS MORNING...BUILDING TO 1-2 FT
BY MID-LATE AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT THIS MORNING...
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WAVES/SEAS
START TO SUBSIDE THU AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL ALONG THE NC
COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE PRECIP TO BECOME SHUNTED OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING...BRINGING A RETURN TO ONSHORE E-SE WINDS AOB
15 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT
THE REGION WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUN NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR OFFLINE ATTM DUE TO A TRANSMITTER FAILURE ON-SITE.
TECHNICANS WILL BE DISPATCHED LATER THIS MORNING. UPDATES WILL BE
PASSED ALONG AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
EQUIPMENT...







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.