Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 240723
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
323 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ~1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS MORNING. ALOFT, A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS... WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING EAST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY, WITH LLVL S-SE FLOW
ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARM-UP TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. POPS REMAIN NEAR NIL UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70/LOWER 70S OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN SHORE...MID TO UPPER 70S SE
COAST...AND LOW TO MID 80S INLAND UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY.

BENIGN WX CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH ALIGNED JUST OFFSHORE.
LGT S FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER COOL NIGHT, THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS
TEMPERATURES WE`RE SEEING THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
U50S-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE
PERIOD...AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPR RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY
DESPITE INCRG PW / DP TEMPS. LOOK FOR A CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY SKY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS MONDAY L-M80S. HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH
DAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SE-S AROUND 10KT OR LESS...WITH A BRIEF
UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS DURING PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
MON AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SLY AND INCREMENTALLY MORE
BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING MON AND TUE. RIDGING BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN ON WED AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM A REMNANT
WRN TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY BE FROM THE SE-S AT SPEEDS AOB 15KT. GUSTS MAY REACH
AROUND 20KT DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. OTHERWISE...THE
WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 1-2FT. SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT (PERIODICALLY UP TO 4FT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS
MON NIGHT THROUGH THU).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



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