Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081719
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1219 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING POWERFUL COASTAL SFC LOW (SUB 980 MB)
PULLING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.STILL BREEZY ALONG THE COAST
BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT SINCE THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

FOR TODAY...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AREA TO HAVE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACRS THE N AND AT THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S ACRS
INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST OVER THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER SOME ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND STRONG PV FEATURE IS DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SE ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM ACRS SRN VA THIS EVENING AND
WILL SLIDE THROUGH SE VA/ERN NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PT
SUNNY CONDS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER THIS AFTN...WITH POPS
RAMPING UP RATHER QUICKLY FROM W TO E BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. STILL
TOO WARM FOR THIS TO BE ANYTHING BUT RAIN ACRS THE AKQ CWA.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS A 3-6 HR
PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL
AVG 0.10 TO 0.20" OR LESS EXCEPT ACRS THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK
WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM TO HAVE RAIN AS PTYPE
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE VALUES ARE
MARGINALLY COLDER AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PARTICULARLY
DORCHESTER CO. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND DEEP MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DO FALL
BELOW 1300 M W OF I-95...BUT THE TREND IS WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WHILE A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NRN ZONES WEST OF CHES BAY...ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LOOKING UNLIKELY. GENLY A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS AROUND 30 F ACRS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LULL IN PCPN TUE
MORNING /EARLY AFTN ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W
DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS ALLOWS
FOR SOME PRTL SUN THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)... ALLOWING
TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45 F. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN ACRS THE NE TUE AFTN/EVENING...THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS
PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT A
LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS
MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER
ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENLY LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER A WINTER WX ADSY
FOR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NE. STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDS. KEPT 20% POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND
COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU- SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...SO
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...LOWS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS (POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE MID-UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES OFF THE NC CST...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE
NRN ATLC DURING TODAY TAKING PCPN WITH IT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT
ORF...ECG...AND SOMETIMES SBY. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TODAY...AS FCST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN EXITING LO PRES IN THE ATLC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FM THE W. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU WED...A STRONG
UPR LEVEL LO WILL DROP ESE FM THE GRT LKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE REGION.
THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT THRU
WED. THE UPR LO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE AREA WED NGT
WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. STILL SEEING 4-5 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
EXTENDED SCA THERE THRU 4 PM. SCA`S FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN
IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST EARLY WED MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED NGT AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU THIS EVENING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN ELEVATED. HAVE
EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM VA BEACH SOUTH
ALONG OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK THRU THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS
WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALSO THE LOWER
BAY FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND WILL ISSUE THOSE
HEADLINES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS (IF NECESSARY).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JDM


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