Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
203 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS DVLPNG ERLY THIS AFTRN AS WEAK MID LVL TROF DRIFTS SE ACROSS
THE FA. ADDED SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THERE. OTW..NO CHANGES MADE.

ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL
VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO
NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC
OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY
PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND
AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED
MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW
WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.