Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
658 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF
THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN
TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN
OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC
LOW OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN
LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY
LOWER POPS THROUGH MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO
THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85
TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70
ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





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