Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290220
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1020 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE....CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES LATE THIS EVENING...IS PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD AGAIN
OVERNIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. BASED ON LAST NIGHT...HAVE
STAYED UNDER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH READINGS AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO SLIDE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER A BIT...BUT
EXPECT THAT THIS CIRRUS WILL BE PRETTY THIN SO SHOULD STILL SEE
LOTS OF SUN. FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE TODAYS HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGIONS
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST
DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WERE THE MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE DRY WEATHER WITH
LOTS OF CLEAR SKY. BUT WITH SOME CIRRUS AROUND...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MOS GUIDANCE AS COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. ON SUNDAY...KEPT THE WEATHER DRY BUT WITH THE
FLOW BEGINNING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...SHOULD SEE HUMIDITY BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.

WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS THICKEN A LITTLE AND THE CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD THE CHANCES TO THE SE OF THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT
IF THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT COULD SEE SHOWERS REACH
ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
SEE A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ...BUT HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS MORE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS. KEPT FOG OUT
OF THE FCST BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER TEMPO MVFR FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT SBY FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. GENERALLY THE MOS
FCSTS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE WITH FOG THERE IN RECENT WEEKS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS PRODUCING A N-NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SPEEDS OF 5-
10KT (10-15KT S OF THE VA/NC BORDER). THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WIND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E-SE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH NE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER) WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10-
15KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
AT 3-4FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JDM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ



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