Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 111726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT DRY
AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATER SATURDAY...LEADING TO A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THE WEATHER REMAINS ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 126 PM EDT...ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS ENJOYING A
BEAUTIFUL CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND UPSTATE NY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND IN THE VALLEYS. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MTNS...AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURE. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH H925 TEMPS ABOUT +18C TO +20C. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE U70S
TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

THE TRANQUILITY CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
WELL OFFSHORE LEAVING BEHIND SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
MAINLY INTO THE 50S /SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE DACKS/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN ITS TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA.

MODEL SUITE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS /ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I80/ IN RESPONSE
TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING OF THE UPPER LOW. THE
ZONAL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW FOR THIS COMPLEX
TO TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE INITIAL
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. QUESTION WILL BE
WHAT IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AS HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ARRIVES DURING THE MAX HEATING...CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM AND WE WILL PLACE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING /HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT/ AS WELL SO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND AN
INCREASE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVING OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE INTO THE 60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL POTENTIALLY BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY
OF THE WEEKEND AS IN COORDINATION WITH SPC WE WILL PLACE OUR
REGION INTO A "SEE TEXT". FROM THE SPC SWODY3 DISCUSSION
     ERN NY/NEW ENGLAND... MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO
STORM TIMING AND EVOLUTION ACROSS THESE AREAS. REGION WILL LIKELY
LIE NEAR THE NOSE OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE
LEADING/DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE CROSSING QUEBEC. MODEST INSTABILITY
AND ADEQUATE SHEAR COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL/WIND...POSSIBLY RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY FROM EASTERN
NEW YORK ACROSS VT/NH. IF GREATER CONFIDENCE IS REALIZED IN LATER
FORECASTS...SEVERE PROBABILITY OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY NEED
TO BE INCREASED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER CLOSE AND A BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US.  A DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH A SFC
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE 00Z GEFS SHOW 500
HPA ANOMALIES OF UP TO 4 STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE UPPER
PLAINS/MIDWEST. AS A RESULT OF THE DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW...THERE
WILL BE A STRONG SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PWAT VALUES TO REACH
AROUND 2.00 INCHES...WITH IS ABOUT 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL.  WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW TO MID
70S...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PERIODS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
POTENTIALLY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS LOCAL STUDIES HAVE SHOWN
THESE TYPES OF SETUPS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
T-STORMS...ESP ON TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHIFT CLOSER
TO OUR AREA...AND PUTS OUR AREA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD /RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION/ OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 130 KT JET AT 250 HPA. THE
DEGREE OF SEVERE WX WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE
WOULD SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND SPC
HAS ALREADY PLACED OUR AREA IN A HIGHLIGHTED AREA IN THEIR DAY 4-8
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA INTO
ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR WEDNESDAY. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE
EAST OF OUR AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN/STRONG STORMS WILL
DIMINISH...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH A MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  THE UPPER LOW
LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT ACROSS QUEBEC...WITH DRIER...
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IN OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SPAWN FEW-SCT
CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AT THE TAF SITES...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS FIRM ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN
PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT IFR/MVFR FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KALB AND KPOU.
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH THE TAF SITES BY 12Z
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RECENT WET WEATHER WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RATHER LOW
DESPITE A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH MORE WET WEATHER EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND...FIRE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT A MINIMUM. MIN
RH VALUES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT
WITH A LIGHT WIND.

LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A RECOVERY OF RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE
80 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. PROBABILITIES
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

GENERALLY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY
WITH BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS EVOLVING SITUATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM






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