Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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970
FXUS61 KALY 280556
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
156 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure over the region will continue to result in dry
conditions through tonight. A weak frontal boundary and disturbance
will move through on Thursday, bringing widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. It will remain hot with increasing humidity on
Thursday. A low pressure system is then forecast to track from the
mid Atlantic states northeastward to just south of Cape Cod on
Friday. This system could bring some much needed rainfall to parts
of the region, especially south and east of Albany.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1220 AM EDT...Tranquil conditions prevail across the entire
area, with higher cirrus clouds streaming in from the west.
Convection along the St Lawrence Valley has rapidly diminished as
frontal boundary remains diffuse and quasi-stationary and should
remain so overnight. Temperatures were still warm with readings in
the mid 60s to lower 70s.

So a quiet night with patchy fog possible in some spots,
especially favored river valleys and locations near lakes/ponds.
Low temperatures forecast to range from the upper 50s in the
highest terrain, to mid 60s in most valley locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
We will see the first chance of rainfall since Monday across parts
of the region on Thursday, as widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected. The best coverage looks to be across the
Adirondacks, as a weak boundary approaches during the afternoon.
There will not be much forcing aloft, although the flow will become
more cyclonic with a weak disturbance moving through as well.
Instability should be rather marginal, with forecast SBCAPE around
500-1000 J/Kg looking reasonable. So non-severe thunderstorms are
expected and should generally be pulse-type with fairly weak shear
and limited buoyancy. It will be another hot day, with high
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s in most areas. Humidity
levels will start to increase with dewpoints rising through the 60s
during the day, making it feel more humid than recent days.

Convection should decrease after sunset Thursday evening, although
will maintain slight to low chance pops through late Thursday night
as a developing low pressure system tracks across the central
Appalachians into the mid Atlantic region by Friday morning.

There is still some uncertainty with regards to the track of this
system and resulting QPF through Friday. Model guidance trends today
indicate this system will likely result in at least some steady
rainfall for areas south and east of Albany, as the 12Z ECMWF and
CMC support this scenario. The GFS has a track farther south, with
less coverage and amounts of QPF. However, the GEFS mean is closer
to the projected ECMWF track. There is enough confidence to mention
likely pops from around the Capital District southward, although
rainfall amounts are quite uncertain. Some limited instability
should result in embedded non-severe thunderstorms, and may result
in locally heavy rainfall given increasing PWATS over 1.50 inches.
Will not mention heavy rainfall in forecast just yet, especially
given very dry antecedent conditions. Temperatures will be closer to
normal and cooler than recent days with added cloud cover on Friday.

Rain/showers should end Friday evening, as the system quickly pulls
away and moves off the New England coast. Will mention chance pops
during the evening, then drying out over night as a ridge of high
pressure moves in by late Friday night into early Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A bit of a change to the the recent long term trends as it seems the
first half of this weekend looks dry and mild, then increasingly wet
pattern for the second half of the weekend into early next week.

NCEP model suite along with international global models suggest the
current short wave near Montana moves out onto the mid-Mississippi
River Valley and begins to interact with tropical moisture
originating  from the Gulf of Mexico.  While we should begin the
weekend on a dry and mild note with a 1020MB surface high just north
of the Great Lakes, clouds will be on the increase Saturday night as
the aforementioned wave and moisture track northeast toward our
region.  We will increase PoPs from the previous forecast for Sunday
with the highest values along the southern half of the county
warning forecast area.

This wave should depart rather quickly Monday morning.  However,
residual cyclonic flow aloft and instability could result in mainly
diurnally driven convection on Monday and Tuesday.  So we will place
slight chance to chance PoPs for these days with a return back to
very mild temperatures as H850 values climb back well into the
teens.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure is moving south of New York...as a cold front
remains near the Canada-New York border this morning. The cold
front will slowly dip south with a weak disturbance moving along
it during the day and into the evening.

VFR conditions mainly this morning...aside for some brief patchy
MVFR mist near KPSF/KPOU btwn 08Z-11Z. High clouds will increase
from north to south gradually this morning into the afternoon.

Some isold-sct showers will likely form ahead of the front and
a weak disturbance this afternoon. VCSH groups were started in
the 17Z-20z time frame from KALB/KPSF north to KGFL. PROB30 groups
were used in the 20Z/THU to 00Z/FRI time frame for a thunderstorm
with potentially brief MVFR conditions.

VFR conditions will likely return thereafter with SCT-BKN cumulus
and BKN cirrus clouds around this evening. Some showers may creep
close to KPOU after 00Z with the weak front slipping south.

The winds will be calm this morning...and then light from the
south to southwest at 4-8 kts late this morning into the
afternoon. The winds may briefly shift to the west and become
light to calm after 00Z/FRI.

Outlook...
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Weak high pressure over the region will continue to result in dry
conditions through tonight. A weak frontal boundary and disturbance
will move through on Thursday, bringing widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. It will remain hot with increasing humidity on
Thursday. A low pressure system is then forecast to track from the
mid Atlantic states northeastward to just south of Cape Cod on
Friday. This system could bring some much needed rainfall to parts
of the region, especially south and east of Albany.

Relative humidity values will increase to around 85 to 100 percent
tonight, then drop to minimum values of between 35 and 50 percent
Thursday afternoon. RH values will increase to around 90 to 100
percent tonight.

Winds tonight will be westerly around 5 mph or less, becoming
southwest around 5 mph on Thursday. Winds Thursday night will be
light and variable.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Much of the region is currently running 3 to 8 inches below normal
on annual rainfall. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of
the area is considered abnormally dry (category D0), and parts of
the Catskills and western New England are within a moderate drought
(category D1).

High pressure will continue to allow for dry weather through
tonight. On Thursday widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected, with the best chance across areas mainly north and west of
the Capital Region. Any rainfall would be rather light and sparse in
coverage.

A more widespread rainfall is possible between late Thursday night
and Friday night, although model guidance continues to unclear on
the exact timing, amounts and duration of the rain. This rainfall is
much needed, as river and stream flows are below normal across much
of eastern New York and western New England. The best chance for a
soaking rain looks to be across the southeast portion of the area,
from the mid Hudson Valley and Taconics, eastward to the Berkshires
and Litchfield Hills.

Dry weather returns for late Friday night through Saturday, with the
next chance of showers and thunderstorms arriving late Saturday
night into Sunday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/11/JPV



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