Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 271913
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
303 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching weak frontal boundary with allow for some showers and
thunderstorms to pass across the region tonight.  Behind the front,
clouds will break for some sunshine on Friday with continued mild
temperatures.  It will remain warm over the weekend, with another
chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM EDT...Slow moving and closed off storm system
continues to be situated off the coast of southern New England,
while a large upper level trough is located over the northern
Plains and upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a fast moving shortwave
ridge is currently located over the area, but will quickly be
translating eastward by later today, as the large upper level
trough continues to slide eastward towards the area.

Despite the upper level ridge in place, visible satellite
imagery and surface observations continues to show plenty of
stubborn low clouds, mainly for areas south and east of the
Capital Region. Some clearing has occurred across areas north of
the Capital region, Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, but
clouds remain elsewhere. Recent satellite trends suggest that
these clouds are slowly eroding across Capital and Saratoga
Regions, so there should finally be some sunshine returning to
those areas during the late afternoon. Meanwhile, clouds look
to mainly hang on across the mid-Hudson Valley and into western
New England, although there will likely be some thinning there
as well by later this afternoon or early this evening. High
temperature today have been adjusted due to the lingering cloud
cover, but it still looks to be a mild day with highs reaching
the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area.

By this evening, heights will be falling across the upper level
trough approaches the area, and a weak surface cold front will
be approaching from the west. Mid and high level clouds will be
increasing, although any precip looks to hold off until after
midnight. Based off the latest 3km HRRR, a line of showers and
embedded thunderstorms will be moving across western and central
NY this evening, and reach across eastern NY and western New
England after midnight and pass through by before sunrise.
These showers/t-storms look to be weakening, thanks to the lack
of daytime heating and limited upper level forcing in place.
Will keep the threat for thunder in the forecast (mainly for
western areas), but instability looks mainly elevated, as
nocturnal effects should limit any surface based instability.
Best chance for seeing precip will be for areas north and west
of Albany.

The front looks to be crossing by late Thursday night into
Friday morning from west to east, ending the threat for precip.
With the clouds and possible precip, overnight lows mainly look
to be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The font should clear the area by the mid to late morning hours.
Clearing will follow behind the front. Friday will be a mostly
sunny day. There is not a lot of cold air behind the front, so
high temperatures on Friday will be mild with temps reaching the
mid 70s across much of the region.

By Friday evening and early Saturday AM, there will be an
increase in moisture at the midlevels. An area of high pressure
to the north will slowly extend eastward. This will push a low
level boundary across the region Saturday Afternoon. Will keep a
low chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm Saturday
afternoon with the instability. Low temperatures Friday evening
will be in the mid to upper 50s. High temperatures on Saturday
will be mild with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 with the
exception of the ADK`s where highs will be in the upper 60s to
lowers 70s.

By Saturday night, Cooler air will move into the region. Low
temperatures will be in upper 30s across the ADK`s to the mid to
upper 40s across the Greater Capital region.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term forecast continues to look unsettled as several
frontal boundaries will be passing through the region with an upper
level trough set up across eastern Canada and the northeast US for
much of the period.

On Sunday...High pressure will be situated across eastern Canada and
the northeast US as a stationary boundary and a warm front will
extend from the middle Atlantic region back into the mid Mississippi
Valley. It will be dry for much of the day but cannot rule out some
afternoon precipitation across western portions of the region. Highs
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

For Sunday night through Monday night...A warm front and then a cold
front will be crossing the region as a complex low pressure system
lifts northeast through the Great Lakes region and into eastern
Canada. Expect precipitation to become more widespread through the
period along with a chance of thunderstorms on Monday. Lows Sunday
night will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s with highs on Monday in
the mid 60s to mid 70s and lows Monday night in the upper 40s to
upper 50s.

Tuesday through Thursday...This period does not look overly wet at
this time, however the upper level trough axis will be moving
through the region on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing some scattered
showers which will be followed by a weak ridge of high pressure
Wednesday night and Thursday with drier conditions. Highs Tuesday
are expected to be in the mid 50s to around 70 with highs on
Wednesday in the upper 40s to mid 60s and highs on Thursday in the
mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the mid
30s to upper 40s with lows Wednesday night in the mid 30s to mid
40s.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clouds will continue to linger with a low pressure system departing
the New England coast and another system approaching from from the
Ohio Valley.  Ceilings and vsibilities will be VFR but BKN/OVC less
than 5000ft.

As the system from the west moves eastward, there will be a chance
of showers between 6-10Z.  Any showers that do form will be light.
Winds will be out of the south less than 10kts shifting to the west
after 12z Friday morning.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A frontal boundary may allow for some showers or thunderstorms
tonight, but not all areas will see rainfall. Behind the front,
clearing is expected on Friday, and RH values will fall to 30 to
40 percent by the afternoon hours, along with west winds around
10 mph.

With another frontal boundary nearby, some showers or
thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday. This will allow
prevent RH values from getting as low, with readings only as low
as 45 to 55 percent on Saturday afternoon. West to southwest
winds will be 10 to 15 mph on Saturday, with a few higher gusts
possible as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A weak frontal boundary will allow for some scattered showers
and thunderstorms tonight. Although point rainfall totals will
depend on the exact placement and track of individual showers
and thunderstorms, basin average amounts will mainly be under a
tenth of an inch, which will have little impact on rivers and
streams.

Dry weather is expected on Friday, but another frontal boundary
will return the threat for some scattered showers and
thunderstorms between late Friday night into Saturday evening.
Amounts will again be variable, but basin average amounts
shouldn`t be enough to cause any hydrologic issues.

After a mainly dry day on Sunday, another frontal boundary is
expected to impact the region between Monday and Monday night.
This front may allow for some locally higher rainfall totals
thanks to showers and thunderstorms. Although no problems are
anticipated on the main stem rivers (as shown in the MMEFS),
high water within urban or poor drainage areas will be possible.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/VTK
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...VTK
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis


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