Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 201122
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
622 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today providing fair
weather. A weak mid level disturbance approaching from the west will
bring chances for light mixed wintry precipitation Tuesday evening
through Tuesday night. Temperatures will generally be well above
average this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 620 AM EST...A cold front was south of the forecast area.
Temperatures have fallen into the mid 20s to upper 30s. High
pressure will build south out of Canada behind this frontal
boundary. This will result in a mainly sunny day, once any
clouds depart early this morning. It will be a cooler day than
Sunday with highs in the 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight...High pressure will remain in control of our
weather before sliding off to the east of the area late tonight.
Expect generally clear to partly cloudy skies with good
radiational cooling which will allow temps to drop into the mid
teens to mid 20s.

On Tuesday...Clouds will increase from west to east as a warm
front moves into western New York late in the day. There will
also be a chance for showers later in the day with the greatest
chances across the western half of the forecast area. Highs will
be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Tuesday night...Frontal boundaries will cross the forecast area
with the warm front moving through first followed by a cold
front. While precipitation will be on the light side, partial
thickness values and BUFKIT model soundings point to the
possibility of some freezing rain especially for areas north and
east of the Greater Capital District. Will include mention of
this in the HWO. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 20s to
mid 30s. Temperatures may actually rise late at night.

On Wednesday...Morning clouds are expected to give way to mostly
sunny skies during the afternoon as high pressure builds back
into the region. Highs will be mild ranging from the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

For Wednesday night...Another frontal boundary will move quickly
east from the Great Lakes region being situated north of the
forecast area across southern Canada. Some light precipitation
is possible across the northwest corner of the region. Lows will
be in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A continuation of above-normal temperatures is expected through at
least Saturday, with positive height anomalies for much of the
eastern US. Models are generally in good agreement in the large-
scale flow pattern. On Thursday, consensus favors a quick-moving
shortwave trough and surface reflection passing well north of the
region (the exception being the GGEM, which develops a stronger
system tracking further south - a solution that will be disregarded
at this time). Indications are for a warm day, with H850 temps in
the upper single digits. H850 southwesterly flow would favor
downsloping off the Catskills, which could push temps past forecast
highs for portions of the Hudson Valley. Some indications of
midlevel moisture to provide a few showers along the cold front, but
overall potential appears low, and for now just have chance PoPs
over portions of the Adirondacks with the aid of upslope flow.

The remainder of the period appears to depend on the evolution of a
deep surface low forming in the Central Plains between the
encroaching western CONUS trough and the eastern CONUS ridge.
Consensus strongly favors this low tracking through the Western
Great Lakes, keeping our region firmly on the warm side. As would be
expected with a strong system this far out, there are differences
with model depiction of the low`s strength and track which would
have implications on the weather locally - for instance, the 00Z
ECMWF develops a strong warm front that would bring precipitation
chances as early as Thursday night to our area. Will leave Thursday
night dry for now until more consensus can develop on this scenario.
PoPs are questionable Friday/Friday night as we may be in the warm
sector with little forcing, but positive midlevel theta-e advection
supports at least chance PoPs. As mentioned in the previous
discussion, there is at least a possibility of frozen precip Friday
night north of the Capital District if models trend stronger with
the cold air in the wake of the Thursday frontal passage, a scenario
that we have seen with similar surface low tracks thus far this
winter. However, the difference between the upcoming pattern and
similar patterns that have resulted in freezing rain so far this
winter is that we will be starting considerably warmer prior to the
midlevel theta-e advection. So, have left out any mention of
freezing rain for this forecast cycle, but will continue to monitor.

Consensus strongly favors the brunt of the precipitation Saturday,
occurring as rain, as the upper trough/surface cold front swing
through. This will be followed by cooler temperatures with possibly
some lake effect snow showers Sunday as temperatures ease back
toward normal in the wake of the strong cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold air advection is resulting in a few patches of MVFR stratus
developing across the terminals. Have included a TEMPO this
morning to cover this. Otherwise, still expecting skies to clear
later this morning as high pressure builds in, with mainly clear
skies for the remainder of the TAF period.

Winds will become northerly today, gusting to 15-20kt at times
by the late morning before diminishing to 10 kt or less in the
evening. Winds will be nearly calm overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected into the middle of
the week with limited chances of widespread precipitation.

Milder temperatures are expected for much of this week.
Although these warmer temperatures will promote some snow melt
during the day, it won`t be accompanied by any significant
rainfall and strong southerly winds, and overnight temperatures
will fall below freezing most nights. This will allow for a
controlled and gradual diurnal melt of the snowpack in place.
Only minor rises can be expected on rivers and streams through
the early to middle portion of the week.

With another approaching storm system, a light mix of
precipitation to rain showers is expected Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This looks fairly light and is not expected to have
a major impact on the hydro service area at this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS


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