Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 300953
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
455 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF SNOW THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A SNOW SQUALL THIS
AFTERNOON. A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW USHERED IN BY
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EST...A SMATTERING OF SNOW THIS MORNING...CONTAINING
SOME BANDLETS OF MODERATE SNOW...WITH OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW FALLING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BACK EDGE TO THE SNOW WORKING TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ASCENT THROUGH AT THE
MORNING HOURS...LEADING TO A POSSIBLE REGENERATION OF THE SNOW
SHIELD. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL LIKELY NOT RISE MUCH DURING THE MORNING.

WE DID CANCEL A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE IT
APPEARS ONLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE...BASICALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

WE CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 3-6 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY.

AN UPPER AIR LOW WILL FORM TO OUR SOUTH MIDDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO CAPE COD. MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS POISED TO
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WIND PICKS UP.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW DEEPENING OFF CAPE COD AS IT GETS
"CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER AIR LOW.

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND PERHAPS EVEN AN
ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE BIG STORM WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS REACHING 35-40 MPH MOST PLACES WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD. AFTER CRESTING MIDDAY...THEY WILL
DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON/TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND. ALL TIMES ARE FROM 6 PM THROUGH 11AM
SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...THERE STILL COULD SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT. OTHERWISE...THE SKY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DIVE TO NEAR ZERO IN THE CAPITAL REGION...5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES HAS PROMPTED
US TO CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE TONIGHT EXCEPT WIND
CHILL WARNINGS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THE WIND WILL BE RESULT OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN THE GULF
OF MAINE. THE LOW WILL ONLY SLOW FURTHER MOVE AWAY ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE A MAINLY SUNNY BUT WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. THE
WIND WILL ABATE A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES
ONLY RECOVER TO 20 AT BEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...ONLY SINGLE NUMBERS OVER
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING MOST OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT A WEAK
CLIPPER WILL WORK ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT. THE APPROACHING FRONT
WILL SERVE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUITE AS LOW AS THEY
WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE. STILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO
THEN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEARLY EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE MONDAY EVENT
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN.

FOR SUNDAY...FEBRUARY 1ST...ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND EITHER STALL OR BECOME ILL-DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY.
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT DOES DIFFER AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RECENT
TENDENCIES PLACING IT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR.  THEN
WE QUICKLY SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE APPROACHING OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM.

THE STRONG PC ANOMALY WAS ASHORE ALONG BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PER THE H2O VAPOR
ANALYSIS THIS FRIDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO MERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BETWEEN I70-I80.
THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING.  THE QPF
FIELDS AND 2D-FGEN FIELDS LINE UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY
WHERE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED.  ENSEMBLE DATA AND
PLUMES NOW SUGGEST MORE THAN HALF THE MEMBERS ARE FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS.  IN FACT...THE LATEST 30/06Z NAM12 IS FURTHER NORTH
AS WELL WITH MODERATE QPF VALUES.  WE WILL REINTRODUCE THIS
POTENTIAL MILLER TYPE B EVENT INTO THE HWO AT THIS TIME.  THERMAL
PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT ONLY COLD BUT WILL OFFER A
CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.  THE HIGHER RATIOS
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I90 WHERE VALUES COULD BE
APPROACHING 20:1.  STILL PLENTY OF TIME AS THIS PV ANOMALY WILL BE
ENTERING THE UPPER AIR NETWORK WHICH SHOULD...HOPEFULLY...RESOLVE
AND NARROW THE SOLUTIONS.  AS AN FYI...EVALUATING THE LATEST CIPS
GUIDANCE...MANY OF THE MATCHES DO BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
REGION.

THIS WAVE DEPARTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AS 1030MB SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW -20C...AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCATIONS ATTEMPT TO APPROACH RECORD LOWS.

THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN TRANQUIL YET CHILLY.  NEXT ARCTIC
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE TIMING OF THIS ARCTIC FRONTAL AND
TRACK OF A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE COULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING
COASTAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY.  WHILE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THIS WAVE OFFSHORE...THERE ARE A FEW OUTLYING
MEMBERS THAT KEEP THIS WAVE CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS/OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.  DUE TO THIS...VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST
AS WE WILL OBSERVE MVFR TO IFR IN SHORT/BRIEF BURSTS.  AT THE
MINIMUM...CIGS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS HINT A BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.  THEREAFTER...DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH RESPECT TO DIMINISHING
TRENDS IN THE SNOW AND LOW CIGS.  THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE OF MAGNITUDES WHERE SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD RESULT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS IN KALB.  WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
FRIDAY MORNING WITH 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...3-6 INCHES
FURTHER NORTH.

ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.