Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 190928
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
528 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Today looks fair and breezy before a second cold front crosses
the area late this afternoon and tonight with just isolated
showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather and seasonable
temperatures are forecast for Sunday and a warm up is expected
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper energy approaching from the Great Lakes and the associated
reinforcing cold front will track into our region this
afternoon. There may be enough lingering low level moisture over
the region to fuel some isolated showers and thunderstorms late
this afternoon and evening as the primary low level thermal
gradient along the low level cold front. Upper jet energy is
relatively strong and the midlevel lapse rates steepen through
the afternoon and evening. Some surface based instability is
also indicated in guidance.

Deep west flow will limit the low level convergence and mid and
upper moisture will be lacking. However, again, there may be
enough low level moisture and thermal forcing along the low
level cold front to support isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Other than fog lifting this morning and some intervals of mid
and high clouds through the rest of the day, periods of sun and
west winds becoming breezy at times this afternoon will support
decent mixing and highs in the 80s in many areas, 70s in higher
terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering isolated showers and thunderstorms will end late this
evening and the sky will become mostly clear. There could be
some patchy fog in some areas near water and swamps around
daybreak Sunday. Sunday looks dry and sunny with highs in the
80s and some 70s in higher terrain.

Some warm advection begins Monday and there should be good
viewing of the eclipse. Will the reduced sunlight during the
eclipse for the time period that is usually the peak sun angle
of the day cause high temperatures to be a little cooler than
guidance? Well, 33% sunshine in our region at the time when we
are supposed to have peak heating during the mid afternoon might
modify the atmosphere a little. Still, highs maybe a degree or
two cooler than guidance, but still in the 80s many areas and
around 80 higher terrain. It will be interesting to see just how
the eclipse does affect the atmosphere over the entire U.S.
with varying percentages of the sun on either side of the path
of the total eclipse.

A mostly clear sky is expected Monday night with slowly
increasing warm advection and low level moisture. Lows mainly in
the 60s with around 60 higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term portion of the forecast starts out with summer-like
warmth, as a ridge of high pressure moves off the mid Atlantic
coast. Relatively high mid level heights and subsidence should allow
daytime highs to reach 85-90 for valleys, and 80-85 across higher
elevations Tuesday. An approaching cold front, combined with late
day mid/upper-tropospheric height falls, and perhaps a pre-frontal
trough could spark some showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday
afternoon, especially for areas north and west of the immediate
Capital District. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong, as
mid level wind fields increase to 30-40 KT or stronger.

For Tuesday night-Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach
from the northwest. Both 00Z/19 deterministic global models and
ensembles suggest that a wave develops along the incoming front,
somewhere across the eastern Great Lakes or western NYS, before
strengthening and moving northeast into southern Quebec. Model
consensus continues to favor a late night/early morning frontal
passage. This would tend to decrease the overall threat for severe
weather with the main front, after any initial convection Tuesday
afternoon. So, have sided with consensus with best chances for
showers/thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wed morning, then
decreasing chances Wednesday afternoon. However, changes to frontal
timing remain possible over the next few days as upper level
features and their evolution become better resolved within various
sources of guidance. It should be warm/humid Tue night ahead of the
front, with lows mainly in the 60s, then highs Wednesday mainly in
the 70s to around 80 for valleys, and 60s to lower 70s across higher
terrain.

Wednesday night-Friday, assuming the aforementioned cold front does
not slow down, high pressure is expected to build in from southern
Canada and the Great Lakes region with cooler and less humid
conditions. There could be a few showers across mainly higher
elevations of the southern Adirondacks/southern VT Thursday due to
lingering cold air aloft and some mid/upper level cyclonic flow.
Expect lows Wed night in the 50s, with some 40s possible for higher
elevations; highs Thursday and Friday mainly in the 70s for lower
elevations, and 60s across higher terrain. Even cooler temperatures
are expected for Thursday night, with lows in the 40s across higher
elevations, and lower/mid 50s in valleys. It is even possible that
some sheltered areas of the southern Adirondacks fall into the upper
30s by daybreak Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will move east of the region today. A secondary
cold front and upper level trough will sweep across the
tonight, leaving the local area between the features for
today.

Any low stratus/fog should lift between 11Z-13Z/Sat, with VFR
conditions then prevailing through Saturday evening. The low
clouds/fog may linger at KPOU longest.

Additional patchy fog may develop between 06Z-12Z/Sun,
especially at climatologically favored KGFL and KPSF, where
periods of IFR conditions will be possible.

An isolated shower will be possible this evening as the
aforementioned secondary cold front/upper level trough moves
through.

Light.variable winds will increase from the west at 5-10 KT by
later this morning, with some gusts possibly reaching the 15-20
KT range at KALB and KPSF this afternoon. West winds will
decrease to less than 8 KT after sunset.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today looks fair and breezy before a second cold front crosses
the area late this afternoon and tonight with just isolated
showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather and seasonable
temperatures are forecast for Sunday and a warm up is expected
Monday and Tuesday.

RH values will be near 100 percent at night. RH values will be
45 to 65 percent this afternoon and Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be west at 15 mph or less Saturday, but a few gusts
to 20 mph are possible during the afternoon. Winds diminish to
less than 15 mph tonight. Winds will be northwest at 15 mph or
less on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and tonight along a reinforcing cold front. Less
humid air will start to work its way into the region after the
cold front tracks through. Drier weather is expected Sunday into
Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
While repairing the azimuthal gear box, radar technicians have
determined that the bull gear on KENX radar needs to be
replaced. This will require the radar to be out of service until
at least next Friday, August 25th.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
EQUIPMENT...



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