Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 301759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
159 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

A low pressure system and its associated cold front will
cross this afternoon. A cooler and drier airmass will be ushered in
Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of the system. High pressure
will remain in control through early Thursday.


As of 116 PM EDT...A cold front continues to approach from
western/central NY and the eastern Great Lakes Region early this
afternoon. Clouds have been eroding across eastern portions of the
area, which were mostly cloudy through much of the morning.
Showers still have not developed as of 1 pm, so delayed timing of
onset of any precip until after 2 pm.

Sfc dewpts continue to be in the 60s ahead of the cold front, and
some destabilization will occur with the NAM indicating SBCAPES in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range. The deep shear /0-6 km/ is in the 30-35
kt range. Some multicells or a multicell line may fire from around
or just southeast of the Capital Region...southern VT...and the
eastern Catskills between 2-5 pm. The latest HRRR indicates the
best activity will be around and south of the Capital Region,
focusing more in the mid-Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW CT from
5-8 pm. Some locally heavy rainfall is still possible with PWATS
in the 1.25-1.75" range. Gusty winds will be a threat and perhaps
a rogue severe storm or two with 50 kt or greater winds. The
limiter is weak mid level lapse rates...and perhaps limited time
for southern NY to destabilize. The marginal risk continues to
look reasonable for this afternoon from SPC. Highs will generally
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A few mid 80s will be possible in
the Hudson River Valley.


Well folks, this will be my last AFD I will ever issue. It is hard
to believe the time has come for me to retire. It has been a
pleasure serving the public and community since April 4, 1995, the
first day I worked at Albany.

The actual cold front still does not look to clear our region until
the evening hours tonight, perhaps with a stray shower. However,
most if not all the forcing and deep moisture should be gone by this
time so only low or slight pops from the Capital region southward.

Drier and slightly cooler air will allow temperatures to settle back
into the 50s across most areas overnight, with lows around 60 in the
immediate Capital region and further south. A light breeze should
preclude the formation of any fog, even with a partly cloudy sky.

Tuesday and Wednesday both look like great days as high pressure
builds over us from southern Canada. H850 temps look to cool to
around +12C. With good mixing, we are still looking for highs
slightly above normal, but dewpoints lower to the 50s. There looks
to be ample sunshine each day. The wind will be northwest 5-15 mph
on Tuesday with a few higher gusts, light and variable on Wednesday.

Look for highs around 80 in the valleys both days, lower to mid 70s
higher terrain. Lows Wednesday night in the 50s.

Thursday will start out dry. The 00Z GFS brings QPF to much of the
region by late in the day, while the 00Z European (ECMWF) and
Canadian models are slower keeping the day dry. We lean with the
drier solution so we kept Thursday dry as well with some increasing
in clouds and humidity as a south breeze picking up to 5-15 mph.

By Thursday a weak cold front and a weak upper trough approach
possibly bringing us some showers. However, the 12Z ECMWF bring very
little QPF Thursday night as most moisture from this system looks to
get robbed by what will be lift from Tropical Depression Bonnie
which is forecast to slide of the mid Atlantic coast and not impact
our region.

Lows on Thursday night look to be around 60.


The long term looks somewhat unsettled as all models indicate a
broad trough will replace the ridge that has been over us. However,
there discrepancies between the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF. The GFS is
much more aggressive developing a deeper trough with a cutoff low
over the Great Lakes, meandering to our region. This setup look to
bring a rather wet pattern over our region during this time frame.

The ECMWF is more progressive, keep the trough a bit flatter
initially, eventually developing a cutoff low further north over
southern Canada. While not completely, this solution brings less
rain to our region as the good forcing remains mainly north of the

While the ECMWF often turns out be more accurate, it is too early to
completely rule out the wetter GFS solution so for now, we took a
middle approach. Either way, pops are warranted for Friday as some
sort of the low pressure system/mid level trough looks to approach
our region. If the ECMWF solution is correct, Saturday could turn
out dry, although the GFS lingers showers over our region. For now,
went slight chance for pops on Saturday.

By Sunday another disturbance associated with a still deepening
trough approaches, so chances of showers look reasonable. We
continue with slight chances of thunder as well.

Temperatures during the extended period look to be close to
seasonable levels for early June, perhaps trending a little below
normal. This will translate to highs in the 70s and lows mainly
in the 50s.


A cold front continues to move across western and central NY this
afternoon. This front will move across eastern NY and western New
England late this afternoon into the overnight period. High
pressure will ridge in late tonight into tomorrow with fair and
dry weather returning.

VFR conditions have returned to all the TAF sites in the wake of
the pre-frontal trough this morning. KPOU has now become VFR and
the skies have started to clear. Expect SCT-BKN cumulus in the
3.5-5 kft AGL range and SCT-BKN cirrus with some isold-sct
showers and thunderstorms especially from KALB-KPSF south and east
btwn 20Z/MON to 00Z/TUE. The best chance of thunderstorms will be
at KPSF and KPOU and a tempo group was used from 21Z-24Z for MVFR
conditions...though brief lapses to IFR VSBYS are possible.
Further north...VCSH groups were used. The cold front moves
through in the evening...and the skies clear.

The dewpt boundary lags a moisture left in the boundary
layer coupled with clearing skies...and light to calm winds will
allow for some MVFR/IFR mist or fog potentially at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
especially btwn 06Z-12Z. Enough mixing in the boundary layer may
preclude any mist at KALB. VFR conditions should return after 12Z
with strong subsidence and deeper mixing in the wake of the front.

The winds will be south to southwest at 6-12 kts this afternoon
with some gusts close to 20 kts at KGFL. The winds will become
light to calm btwn 00Z-04Z. The winds will increase quickly from
the west to northwest at 5-10 kts from 12Z onward.


Tuesday-Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA


Scattered showers today and possibly a few afternoon thunderstorms.
However much of the day will be rainfree. RH values will remain
elevated. A south wind will become southwest to west later on this
afternoon, 5- 15 mph.

A cold front will cross the region through this evening, allowing a
return to more seasonable temperatures and humidity levels.

Dry weather Tuesday through Thursday with nearly full recoveries
each and every night. It will be a bit breezy on Tuesday with a
northwest wind 10-15 mph, with gusts to near 25 mph. The wind will
be light and variable on Wednesday, south 5-15 mph on Thursday. The
wind each night look light or calm.


Some localities received up to a couple of inches of rainfall on
Sunday but that was the exception not the rule. Average basin
rainfalls were generally a quarter inch or less. Large rivers were
not affect much by the rain.

More scattered showers today and again some of these could very
locally heavy. They could produce some ponding and maybe some urban
minor flooding but not real impact is expected on rivers and

With the passage of the low pressure system dry weather will return
Tuesday. High pressure is then expected to build in with the dry
weather continuing through the middle of the week. The next chances
for rain will return late in the week and for the weekend as a low
pressure system approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.




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