Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 291410
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
910 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS.
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR AND
ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER/POPS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY/RADAR LOOP. ACCUMULATIONS STILL ONLY EXPECTED
TO BE AN INCH OR LESS AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. ALSO
TWEAKED TEMPS SOME BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z ALB SOUNDING.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE HILLS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON SOUNDING. NO
CHANGES BEYOND TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS WE CLOSE OUT 2014...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS THE
EASTWARD EXTENSION OF A MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AFFECTS OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SUBTLE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WHICH WILL NOT ONLY HELP TO REINFORCE THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...BUT
INCREASE THE FAVORABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT A
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION OF THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTING
THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT TO BE VERY INTENSE. HAVE FORECAST A
MAXIMUM OF UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL HERKIMER
COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE
OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. MOST OF THE
REST OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN...BUT WITH SOME BELOW ZERO
READINGS LIKELY OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES. ON WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW REGIME
PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST CONUS...AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN FROM NEW
YEARS EVE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBTLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW...UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS THEN START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH REGARDS TO A POTENTIAL STORM. THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS WITH LARGE SPREAD IN TERMS OF STORM TRACK AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE
A DEEPENING CYCLONE TRACKING WEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE OTHER END OF THE
ENVELOPE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND WEAKER SURFACE CYCLONE
TRACKING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS WITH BARELY ANY
QPF IN OUR REGION AND COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE GFS AND GEFS ARE
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH A STRONGER RIDGE
BUILDING NEAR CUBA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS INDICATING MORE OF A
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE WITH COLDER AIR WINNING OUT AND A WEAKER
RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA.

WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL MENTION
LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD BUT TRENDING
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO RESULT IN MAINLY SCT-BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE
THROUGH THE 24 TAF PERIOD ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF THIS MORNING. NOT MUCH CHANGE DURING
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CIGS IN THE 3500-5000 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING. VSBYS WILL REMAIN P6SM WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
15 KTS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
NEW YEARS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH COLDER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
ICE SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM OR AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE NEW YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/GJM/BGM








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