Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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686
FXUS63 KAPX 241816
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
116 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1112 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

Shower activity continues mainly east of I-75 late this morning,
though it has been growing less organized and has showed signs
of gradual weakening over the past few hours as the deformation
banding falls apart. Areas of drizzle are also falling apart.
Temperatures are just now slowly starting to rise into the
mid/upper 30s across the area, so expect any lingering light snow
across eastern Upper and northeast Lower to change over to rain by
early afternoon. Not to sound like a broken record, but once
again today areas of fog still linger across the area late this
morning. Do expect the fog to diminish over the next few hours as
winds increase a bit out of the NW, and it looks like any
lingering pockets of dense fog are rapidly disappearing. Forecast
for the rest of today looks on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

...Turning just a bit cooler...

High Impact Weather Potential: Really not a whole lot. Still dealing
with some fog issues and just perhaps some overnight freezing
drizzle concerns.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: North/south band of deformation driven
precipitation continues to slowly pivot north across much of the
area at this early hour, although there is signs of it beginning to
shrink and slowly focus more to the eastern third of the area.
Temperatures remain just warm enough for much of this precipitation
to fall as rain, although slowly cooling thermal profiles is allowing
just a bit of snow to mix in, particularly across portions of
eastern upper Michigan. Large scale pattern remains slowly transient
today and tonight, forcing axis of overhead forcing and deeper
moisture to pivot off to the northeast today as narrow mid level
ridge builds into the northern Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Looking further upstream, lee side cyclogenesis already underway
across the high plains of Colorado as strong mid level wave gets set
to eject out of the Intermountain West. This system will continue to
organize as it advances through the Central Plains today, reaching
eastern Iowa by sunrise Wednesday. Elevated warm air advection
regime well ahead of this system will begin to impact portions of
the area very late tonight, bringing the threat for a bit of snow
along with it.

Primary forecast concerns: Light rain and snow trends today.
Addressing that light wintry mix potential later tonight. Fog trends
through the period.

Details: Overhead band of precipitation expected to continue to
slowly fade this morning as it pivots off to the northeast. Still
looks like a pretty wet start to the day, with the primary focus for
areas east of interstate 75. Atmosphere continues to slowly cool,
allowing at least the opportunity for a bit of snow to mix in, once
again especially across eastern upper Michigan. Not a big deal at
all, with little to no accumulation expected. Mid and upper level
moisture peels out during the afternoon, leaving behind an
increasingly shallow near surface moist layer. Moisture profiles
look to remain just deep enough to keep around some drizzle/very
light rain potential for northeast lower and areas north of the big
bridge. Otherwise another cloudy and damp day, along with some
lingering fog. Highs today expected to be a bit cooler than the last
few, but still well above normal (and above freezing) for this time
of year.

Other than some fog, this evening is looking fairly uneventful as
that transient ridge axis builds overhead. Moisture depth increases
from west to east tonight as that elevated waa regime begins. Multi-
run guidance trends is for a cooler profile through the column,
supporting an all snow event, and also a slower onset of full
saturation, with snow only reaching the surface across the southwest
third of the area. Any accumulations will be light, with amounts
likely remaining well under an inch. Will need to be on the lookout
for a bit of freezing drizzle, especially for those north of the
Straits, where soundings show a rather deep sub -10c moist layer
developing during the early morning hours. Enough evidence there to
go ahead and include this in the forecast, and may introduce this
concern in our latest hazardous weather products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 336 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

...The Trend is Down After Wednesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...The return of snow and the freezing
of the wet surfaces Wednesday night into Friday is the highest
impact weather. Although, there a period of freezing drizzle is
possible in the morning hours of Wednesday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...There is a dry layer below -10c in E
Upper at 12z, but the NAM and the GFS saturate that layer by 15z
when the best forcing arrives, so have kept the FZDZ out of the main
forecast as it looks more like snow or a rain snow mix will continue
in the afternoon as the temperatures all remain above freezing by
14z. However, as we continue into the evening, the cold air moves
back into the region and the rain/snow mix turns over to snow during
the night. For Thursday, The snow will continue, and transition
through the day to LES as the 850 mb temperatures over E Lake
Superior and N Lake Michigan fall to about -8c or -9c by 18z. by
00z, the 850 mb temperatures are all at -10c or colder so we begin
to transition to more lake effect than lake enhancement through the
night.

Primary Forecast Concerns...It is possible that if there is enough
low level forcing that the Wednesday morning will have more freezing
drizzle, but based on the ridging that the models have and the
subsidence, think that it may just be cloudy initially, and the we
start to get a period of drizzle on the front end of the snow, by
the time the sfc temperatures are above freezing.

Otherwise, the later part of the forecast shifts to LES. The snow
amounts over 12 hours look to be minor to light amounts. It is
possible, however, that with some steady wind directions, which
could happen Thursday night, that a band of light to moderate snow
could develop, but think that is on the low end of probability at
this point.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...LES is the only issue it looks like
at this point, but no particular time period looks very impactful.

Extended (Friday through Monday)...as the system that moves through
us on Wednesday moves into New England, it rapidly deepens and the
cyclonic curvature extends back into the N Plains. With that, we are
in favorable LES patterns through the weekend and into the early
next week. The wind directions be NW or WNW through Saturday, and
then turn more NNW or N on Sunday and Sunday before returning to NW
on Monday and then it looks like it ends until the next cold push on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

Showers continue across northeast Michigan early this afternoon with
lingering patchy drizzle elsewhere across the area. Expect the
showers to come to an end at KAPN later this afternoon as they
gradually push further east. Otherwise fog and low stratus remain
the primary issues, resulting in LIFR to low end IFR conditions
across northern Michigan. Not expecting improvement, particularly in
ceilings, heading into tonight.

Can`t rule out a period of drizzle later tonight and perhaps some
freezing drizzle at KPLN where surface temperatures will drop
close to freezing. Next system will move in from the southwest
late tonight into Wednesday morning, with light snow spreading
northeast across lower Michigan after 10Z. As temperatures warm
late Wednesday morning, the snow will likely mix with or change
over to rain. Generally LIFR to IFR cigs/visibilities on Wed.
Winds remain light through the TAF period, shifting from the NW
this afternoon to SE later tonight into Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

Other than some fog, minimal concerns today through
Wednesday as light wind regime continues. Winds do increase out of
the northwest Wednesday night, with northwest winds, at times gusty,
continuing through the remainder of the week. SCA/s are possible for
at least some nearshore waters during this period.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEK
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MEK
MARINE...MSB



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