Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 281931
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
331 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nuisance light snow showers/flurries in spots tonight

- Light wintry mix likely Saturday

- Next system to watch is early next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

Pattern/Synopsis: Low pressure over southern Hudson Bay will
weaken, while high pressure noses into the southern lakes from
the nw.

Forecast: The pressure gradient relaxes tonight, even as winds
veer to the wnw. Those wnw winds will bring light snow showers
and flurries to the Sault and other parts of Chippewa Co, as
well as GLR/Kalkaska and nearby snowbelt areas of nw lower MI.
Somewhat better banding is already present on Superior, well ne
of MQT, per MQT radar. The best banding tonight will impact
parts of Chip Co, where the wnw fetch is much longer than off of
Lake MI. Inversion heights also wobble higher up there for a
time, close to 800mb. Have accums of up to 1" in Chippewa Co,
near and north of M-28, including the Sault. The shorter fetch,
drier air, and lower inversions into nw lower MI will only
support light snow showers and flurries, with minimal accums.

Overall on the cloudy side central and north, partly cloudy in
the south. Min temps in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Ridging and height rises move over northern Michigan on Friday
leading to warmer temperatures and waning precip chances. Low
pressure system tracks across southern Michigan Saturday, with a
short wave quickly skirting across northern parts of Michigan as
well. Light wintry mix possible as a result. Zonal flow takes over
on Sunday as the short wave ejects to the east of the Great Lakes.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

High pressure aloft moves overhead on Friday resulting in warmer
temperatures. There could be a few nuisance light snow showers
across the eastern UP early on Friday, but the ridging aloft, warmer
850 temps, and dry low levels by the afternoon hours will diminish
any light lake effect potential. Two pieces of energy, one across
southern MI, one across northern, move east throughout the day on
Saturday. Consequently, precipitation develops across the region.
This will generally be light precipitation, with largely a mix of
rain and snow. Could be some freezing rain during the predawn hours
to very early morning  hours Saturday if the precipitation
overspreads the region when the sfc temps are below freezing. Much
of the 12Z guidance shows very little in regard to freezing rain,
but something to keep an eye on. Interestingly, ECM/EPS continues to
be an outlier with this system, suggesting the northern piece of
energy is farther south and thus colder with a couple of inches of
snow for the area. GFS/GEFS/CMC/GEPS are farther north and thus not
much in the way of snow/wintry precip. Seems the ECM is the outlier,
so for now will side with the warmer scenario.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Next system for early next week will be a thread the needle type
situation. Two pieces of energy to watch, energy splitting/oozing
out of an upper low in the Desert Southwest and ejecting
northeastward into the Ohio Valley, in addition to a vigorous upper
low diving south out of Canada. Looks like the initial piece of
energy produces a juiced up low pressure system that tracks
northeastward, with the diving upper low attempting to phase with
the southern piece and thus slowing and intensifying the low
pressure system. Tons of spread in the ensembles right now, GEFS is
most amplified and farthest west comparatively so (pretty sure a
bias of the GFS), other guidance generally misses the connection and
thus the low pressure drifts off to the east. Although, even if the
sfc low does not directly impact N Michigan, that stout upper low
would still likely produce precip chances. Nevertheless, right now,
generally pretty low probabilities (10-40%) to see 3" or more with
this system given the GEPS, EPS, and GEFS (highest is GEFS), but the
exact interaction of the upper level features and subsequent low
pressure track will ultimately decide. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
A trof of low pressure will swing across the area tonight,
veering our winds to the wnw. Conditions will be mostly VFR.
However, lake effect clouds are expected to redevelop and lower
tonight into Fri morning, along with some -SHSN. MVFR cigs are
likely Fri morning at CIU, and are possible at PLN/TVC.

Gusty wsw winds this afternoon will weaken by evening, then veer
wnw.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be decreasing late today, as low pressure over
southern Hudson Bay continues to weaken. Small craft advisories
will not be needed in most areas by midnight. Whitefish Bay is
an exception, as veering winds to wnw will allow wave action
from the open portion of Superior to make it into northern parts
of Whitefish Bay.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345-
     346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ


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