Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 250829

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
429 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Cool and cloudy conditions can be expected today through
tonight, as low pressure completes its swing through the
region, along with patchy drizzle and spotty light showers.
High pressure Wednesday will allow the clouds to break up.
However, our next areawide chance for showers and thunderstorms
will occur Thursday into Friday from a frontal passage.


310 AM Update...
A welcome short period of benign weather will occur now through
Wednesday. There are still details to work out in terms of
clouds and spotty light rain showers, especially today.

A cooler air mass is overspreading the area, but there is
abundant moisture in the lowest 10 kft agl. Remnants of an
inverted trough are still hanging over the area, roughly up the
I-81 corridor. Also, main upper trough axis is now swinging
across the area. So even though moisture is not deep and
instability is scant, we will have stubborn clouds stuck over
the region today, as well as spotty light showers and drizzle.
With time, lingering activity will compress mainly east of I-81
as we head into late afternoon through evening. Our saturated
soil really cannot handle any significant rainfall at the
moment, but thankfully, the lack of moisture depth will keep
additional rain amounts through tonight very light; on the order
of traces to several hundredths of an inch. This of course will
not be a problem whatsoever in terms of hydrology.

Highs today under plenty of clouds and light north-northwest
flow will be only mid 60s to lower 70s, which is a good 8-14
degrees short of climatological average. We are expecting lows
tonight in the 53 to 58 range, with clouds allowing some breaks
yet also development of patchy fog for many areas.

Temperatures will moderate into the mid to upper 70s Wednesday,
with at least partial sunshine. Stratus will tend to become
cellular cumulus, and quite a good amount of sun should end up
being experienced in at least Finger Lakes-Central Southern Tier
NY, and spreading east by late afternoon. Though generally
speaking high pressure will be in charge, there will still be a
weak vestige of the inverted trough extending from the Delmarva
peninsula through far eastern PA to Catskills. Return flow
around the high will also advect some marine layer moisture
towards this zone of weak convergence, to the point that an
isolated instability shower cannot be totally ruled out in
Northeast PA, and in Central NY along and southeast of the I-88
corridor. Overall though, quite a nice and mainly dry day.


330 am update...

This will be the period to watch for the potential of more heavy
rain Thursday to Friday. Only small changes made. The newest
Euro has come into better agreement with the American models.
This keeps the track of the surface low near the Mason Dixon and
the heaviest rain in PA. The main threat will be the rain in
northeast PA. Obviously will need to be watched after the
flooding the last few days and the rivers still high.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be mostly dry as the
surface high pressure moves out. Thursday afternoon the moisture
moves in and continues into Friday. First SPC has put the area
in mostly marginal severe risk and slight for NEPA and Sullivan
County, NY. Timing would be afternoon and evening. Question
again will be how much instability. High clouds along with
convective debris will limit heating and instability. Models
differ on how much. Wind shear is moderate but nothing to get
too excited about. As usual the bigger problem will be the
rainfall. Thunderstorms will drop localized heavy rain Thursday
afternoon and evening. This will be followed by widespread
steady rain Thursday overnight to Friday morning. Again models
not agreeing on location and amounts. Location seems mostly in
NEPA and Sullivan County NY closer to the low track in the
middle Atlantic. PWATs climb to 1.5 to 2". For now average
rainfall amounts under an inch. With thunderstorms and embedded
convection amounts could easily exceed an inch. Even this little
amount will be a problem.


330 am update...
Small changes to this period. Temperatures near normal despite
the persistent upper level trough. Friday night into Saturday
drying trend with upper level trough and surface low moving east
out to sea. Only slight chance pops this period. Saturday night
to Sunday night will be dry with northwest flow aloft and high
pressure at the surface. Monday maybe a shower in the Finger
Lakes late as a front drops southeast ahead of the next trough.

previous discussion...
Another stormy period is forecast for Friday, as a sharp upper-
level trough shoots through NY with thunderstorms and, almost
certainly, more hydrological concerns.

The good news is the trough moves rather quickly, and heights
build across the region for Saturday through Monday. The result
should be a fair/dry period, which the entire forecast area
could really use right now.


Abundant moisture will be stuck today as low pressure completes
its passage through the region. This will cause persist
restrictions from low stratus clouds. KAVP and sometimes KELM
will manage to get into higher end MVFR, especially by this
afternoon, but the remainder of the terminals will spend much
of the day at fuel alternate or worse ceilings, particularly
this morning. There may be spotty light rain showers or drizzle
as well. KSYR-KRME should lift to into higher end MVFR around
19Z-20Z, and even VFR this evening, however mist formation may
not be far behind going into tonight. Winds will generally be
variable or light northwest for all terminals, except KRME will
often maintain light east-southeast.


Wednesday through Wednesday night...Lingering restrictions in
the morning, especially KITH-KBGM-KELM-KAVP, then VFR.

Thursday through Friday...Chance of showers-storms with
associated restrictions.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.




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