Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 210200
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1000 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST, AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS NOW EAST OF THE FA, LEAVING US IN A
TEMPORARY LULL. PULLED BACK ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT,
LEANING TOWARD LOW CHANCE WEST AND HIGH CHANCE EAST THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

NEXT SHOT OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE NEXT WAVE
ROTATING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NY/PA THURSDAY MID
MORNING.

LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A BETTER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE LOOKS OVERDONE,
WITH 500-1000 J/KG CAPE VALUES LOOKING MORE REALISTIC.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
URBAN ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD
ADVISORIES. THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS DONE AT AVP AND SHOULD END IN NY BY 4Z. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MAYBE BRIEF IFR VSBYS.
WITH THE SOUPY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA ALL NY SITES WILL FALL TO IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS BY 9Z AND NOT LIFT UNTIL 14 OR 15Z. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TO 2 TO 4K FT BY 18Z WHEN SHOWERS START AGAIN. AT
AVP MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS 8 TO 15Z. LESS CHC OF SHOWERS THERE AGAIN
SO DID NOT INCLUDE ATTM.

LIGHT S TO SE OR CALM WINDS TONIGHT. THU S TO SW WINDS AT 4 TO 8
KTS.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN
SHRA/TSRA. LATE THU NGT AND FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS
POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC






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