Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 170601
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
101 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching frontal complex will bring rain Tuesday, with an
initial period of freezing rain expected, especially in the
morning. Rain showers will last into Wednesday. Thursday into
Friday will be dry and mild again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM Update...
Latest higher resolution models are coming in slightly slower with
precipitation. The initial activity, while in an environment with
thermal profiles supportive of sleet and freezing rain, is
struggling to reach the ground due to dry air in the lower levels.
Forecast is still being refined as additional model data comes in but
these are the trends being noted. Even a slight delay would help
out in making freezing rain this morning more light and spotty.

Previous discussion...
Current forecast in good shape. So far this evening the initial
shot of isentropic lift has resulted in lower ceilings and not
much of anything reported at the surface. Some spotty light
drizzle/freezing drizzle may have occurred across the southern
tier and northeast Pennsylvania but not much more. A brief heavier
return on radar initiated a quick special weather statement for
Luzerne and Lackawanna counties about an hour ago and this has
already moved through. Better forcing will occur starting after
midnight with a more significant shot of isentropic forcing.
Temperatures across the southern tier and northeast Pennsylvania
are generally in the lower to middle 30s but with dew points in
the lower to middle 20s evaporative cooling will keep temperatures
near the freezing mark for much of the overnight. This combined
with the recent cold nights will result in freezing rain until mid
morning in the above mentioned areas. Points east and north will
see freezing rain into the afternoon.

2 pm update...
Freezing rain advisories continue for the entire area. Did not
adjust timing. Adjusted ice amounts slightly. Snow and sleet
amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch most locations,
falling right at the start.

Temperatures will rise slowly from sw to ne starting in the early
morning. Most of the area will have a little freezing rain Tuesday
before temperatures rise to 32 and above. Rain will start early
morning for Elmira to Scranton then push to BGM around sunrise
then to Rome midday. It may be late enough that Syracuse will be
above freezing when it starts mid to late morning. The other area
is the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre valley which will be around freezing
at the start around 7 am.

Timing of models closer now. A surface low pressure area moves
east through the Midwest into upstate NY Tuesday night. The low
then transfers to Long Island. A progressive upper level trough
will follow the surface low. Warm frontal precip will start
Tuesday morning. A southwest flow of warm air will bring
temperatures above freezing aloft first. This will warm and
moisten the lower layers. Most of the rain in the west will be
during the day, and in the east afternoon and evening. Tuesday
night northeast PA could be dry slotted. For amounts see the
hydrology discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM Update...
Main forecast concerns in the short term are focused around the
lingering light wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet over Oneida
county and portions of the Catskills Tuesday night...the
continuation of rain, possibly mixed with snow in the higher
elevations through the day Wednesday ending with drizzle Wednesday
evening.

The main push of deep moisture associated with the warm front
ahead of the sfc low will be lifting ewd out of the area Tuesday
evening with a persistent layer of warm air aloft modifying the
thermal profiles over the Catskills and northeast Oneida county
enough to keep the threat for light freezing rain and sleet around
through around 10 pm...and possibly longer. The warm nose shifts
to the east later that evening as the primary upper short wave
tracks ewd through the srn Great Lakes and brings with it a shot
of colder air aloft. Strong dynamics aloft associated with the
trough and CAA in the mid levels steepening lapse rates along with
a decent amt of moisture will keep the potential for precipitation
around through most of the day Wednesday. Have added mention of
snow to the forecast through the day as this wedge of colder air
associated with the passing wave appears to be sufficient enough
to mix in a few snow showers...especially in the higher elevation
areas. Any snow accumulation will be very light...a trace to a
couple tenths of an inch at best.

The air mass will see a noticeable loss of moisture aloft going
into Wed evening...which will act to weaken the rain and/or snow
and transition over to a period of drizzle...or very light
freezing drizzle where temps hover below freezing.

High pressure builds in across the region Thursday morning and
keeps weather conditions quiet over NY and PA through Thursday
afternoon. There may be a chance of clouds breaking up across PA
and the srn Tier of NY during the afternoon.

Temperatures Wed and Thur will continue above normal with highs in
the upper 30s near 40...and over night lows in the lower to mid
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM Update...
Ridge of high pressure shifts off to the east Thursday night and
Friday morning as a developing area of low pressure over the
central CONUS lifts a weak warm front newd through the Ohio Valley
and Mid Atlantic region. This warm front will allow the fairly
mild temperatures to continue into the weekend with rain starting
up later in the day Friday. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding the nwrd extent of the precip shield and the
warm front with the 12Z ECMWF the fastest and most north with the
rain and rain/snow mix in the higher elevations. The latest GFS
stalls out the warm front across srn NY Saturday morning and then
washes it out later in the day with an area of high pressure and
drier air building in over New England. This wedge of dry air may
keep conditions quiet over central NY and ne PA through Sunday.
The latest 12Z CMC is more similar to the GFS...so an attempt was
made to trend toward a GFS/CMC solution. Either way at this time
it appears precipitation amounts will be fairly light.

Temperatures remain steady and mild with highs in the lower to mid
40s and night time lows in the lower to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper wave will move through the region with restrictions and rain,
as low pressure also travels through the eastern Great Lakes.
Through 11Z however, VFR as ceilings gradually lower. Light rain
will then move in between 11Z-14Z, though for all terminals except
KAVP it will briefly begin as spotty freezing rain. Though models
have trended slightly slower with the onset of rain and
restrictions, fuel alternate ceilings should still be achieved by
late morning KAVP-KELM, and early afternoon for remainder of
terminals, with eventual IFR ceilings. Marginal low level wind
shear conditions are possible for some terminals late afternoon
into evening due to increasing southwesterly jet not far off the
surface, however the confidence in thresholds actually being met
is not high enough yet to include in TAFs. Surface winds will be
variable or light east-southeast through early morning, then generally
southeast 5-10 knots for remainder of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday...Lingering restrictions as rain
gradually diminishes to scattered showers. Possible mix at times
for KRME.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Friday night and Saturday...Chance for mixed rain-snow and associated
restrictions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No flooding is expected.

Rainfall Tuesday to Wednesday of half an inch to an inch and some
snow melt will cause streams and rivers to rise again. Some of
the headwaters and Wilkes-Barre could get back to caution stage.
Rainfall will be mostly half an inch with close to an inch in the
far north. Snow melt will add little to the runoff. Water
equivalent in northeast PA and the southern Catskills is less than
a quarter inch. Except for northern Oneida County NY, snow is
patchy and confined to the woods. This will add little also with
temperatures mostly in the 30s.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freezing Rain Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to noon
     EST today for PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ038.
NY...Freezing Rain Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to noon
     EST today for NYZ018-036-044-045-056.
     Freezing Rain Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
     this evening for NYZ009-037-046-057-062.
     Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ015>017-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.