Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 211748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM





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