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000
FXUS61 KBGM 200219
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1019 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OUR MAIN CONTROLLING FEATURE
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING RAIN-FREE WEATHER AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1010 PM UPDATE...
FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE THIS EVENING...NO CHANGES REQUIRED
WITH CURRENT UPDATE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS HR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ALOFT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S THIS HR WITH TEMPS
FALLING RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. WITH CONTINUED COOLING OVERNIGHT...WE
STILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAVORED INTERIOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

7 PM UPDATE...
FCST IN GREAT SHAPE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THE CURRENT
UPDATE. DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UP THIS EVENING LENDING SOME
CONCERN THAT RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ACROSS
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ELECTED TO ADD A
PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR PRONE LOCATIONS. EVERYTHING ELSE WELL ON
TRACK THIS EVENING WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED.

230 PM UPDATE...
HIGH AND DRY DRG THE NR TERM PD WITH 1020MB HIPRES RIGHT OVRHD.
CLR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WK BNDRY LYR WINDS. MOS GUIDANCE
DIPS OVRNGT LOWS INTO THE L/M-40S THO UPR 30S AT KELM. HV BLENDED
MAV/MET NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED LOWS OF 39-40F AT ELMIRA, SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS, HWVR CROSS-OVER TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ARND 38F OR 39F, THUS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR RVR VLY FOG AND HV NOT ADDED
INTO GRIDS ATTM.

FOR THURSDAY, HIPRES WL BUILD OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH WINDS
TURNING SWRLY. H8 TEMPS WARM TO ARND 10C DRG THE DAY YIELDING HIGHS
IN THE M/U 70S. INVERTED TROF PROGGED TO DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND SWING
THRU CNTRL PA BY EVNG. WITH AIRMASS BEING SO DRY (I.E. PW VALUES
ARND 1 INCH) NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS TOMORROW, THUS
HV KEPT POPS ARND 10% ACRS THE FAR SWRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
QUIET WX CONTS THRU FRIDAY WITH ONLY A SLGT INCRS IN CLD CVR
EXPECTED. FRI MRNG MINS EXPECTED TO RMN ARND 50F THEN RISING TO NR
80 ON FRI AFTN. RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU SAT AFTN, THEN SLOWLY
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS S/WV ROUNDS THE UL RIDGE. EXPECT CHC
SHRAS/TSTMS DRG THE AFTN HRS PER ECMWF, WHEREAS GFS BUILDS 588+
RIDGE OVR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND. LARGE DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. WENT WITH THE WPC/ECMWF OUTPUT... AS THIS IS A TYPICAL
PATTERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT SLIGHT TO
CHANGE FOR POPS AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED MOVE UP AND
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS KEEPS THE EXTENDED DRY
AND VERY WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS AT 18 DEGREES C. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST MID NEXT WEEK... IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MORNING VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF NY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CU ON THURSDAY AROUND 5K FT.

AT KELM, INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR FOG BEGINNING AT 07Z WITH
OCCASIONAL VSBY/CIG BELOW ALT MIN BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH THAT DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP HERE AS BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE VERY LIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP NEAR THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

AT KITH, EXPECT LESS FOG THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW, JUST MENTIONED POSSIBLE MVFR FOG BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/SE AROUND 5 KNOTS BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...CMG/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM