Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 070637
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
137 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A MILD AND FAIR SUNDAY, A GREAT LAKES STORM SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MUCH
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
820 PM EST UPDATE...
IT IS A FAIRLY QUIET TONIGHT AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS
WITH AN REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A SFC LOW
SKIRTING TO THE EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE OF NY. THE
FRONT ATTENDANT WITH THE SFC LOW WILL NOT IMPACT THE REGION AND WE
WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIGHTLY MERGE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
REGION QUIET. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT AS TEMPS
ARE STARTING TO FALL DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERALL... THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE
READ THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
1 PM SATURDAY UPDATE... AS OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, SOME
CLOUDINESS (STRATOCUMULUS PLUS MID-LEVEL DEBRIS) WAS EXTENDING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS/INCREASING
SUNSHINE ACROSS NY`S SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA.

WE EXPECT ANY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THEN ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE OVERNIGHT, THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, AND
RIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN, AND THE LACK OF OBSERVED CLOUDINESS/MOISTURE UPSTREAM
FROM THESE DIRECTIONS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ALTHOUGH WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES CLEAR OUT, LACK OF BOTH SNOW COVER AND ANY DEEP COLD AIR,
SHOULD KEEP LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. GIVEN THE SAME ENVIRONMENT
SUNDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 40S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE, AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES TROUGH, AND ALSO ON THE VERY OUTER
EDGES OF A DEEP OFFSHORE CYCLONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TURNING A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. INITIALLY, EARLY
MONDAY AREA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN TWO LOWS...ONE OFF THE COAST
WITH AN APPROACHING CLIPPER TYPE LOW AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE DAY WILL START DRY BUT IT WILL BE
THIS SECOND LOW THAT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SINCE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL REACH INTO
THE 30S NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION OR TRAVEL HAZARDS DURING
THE DAY.

THE FORECAST TURNS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE EAST WITH ENERGY
FROM CLIPPER TRANSFERRING TO NEW SURFACE LOW MOVING WELL OFF THE
COAST. THE UPSHOT WILL BE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE PERIODS
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING WITH A COATING UP TO A COUPLE
INCHES OVER THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER EXPECT AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO DEVELOP CONNECTING LOW TO OUR WEST TO NEW LOW OFF THE
COAST. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS TROUGH
WILL SET UP...LIKELY OVER OUR NE PA ZONES OR JUST OFF TO OUR
SOUTH. SET UP WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THOUGH AS SNOWFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS TROUGH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON COLDER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
UTILIZED MODEL BLEND KNOWN AS THE SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS
OVER NORTHERN ZONES WHERE LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED.

IN TERMS OF DAY TO DAY DETAILS, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, SETTING UP BY THE LATTER
PART OF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH W/NW FLOW. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE FOR ONEIDA, ONONDAGA, AND MADISON COUNTIES. REMAINDER OF CWA
WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NY. COLDER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH GUSTY NW WIND.

TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR COLD AND CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY WITH EARLY
INDICATIONS BEING FOR A VERY COLD START TO NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNTIL DAYBREAK SCT/BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NYS TERMINALS BUT MAINLY
KRME/KSYR/KITH. FOR TODAY EITHER JUST SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OR SKC THEN THIS EVENING CI DUE TO SYSTEM IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.
TONIGHT SE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.OUTLOOK...

MON MORNING...VFR.

MON AFTN THRU THU...PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...RRM



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