Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 310937

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
537 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

A dry ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through
midweek under a mainly clear sky. Our next chance of rain will
come Late Thursday into Friday with the passage of a cold front.


535 AM Update...
Valley fog is a bit more expansive than previously anticipated,
despite decent pressure gradient just off the surface, and
advecting in of dry air. Grids adjusted accordingly to include
some more valleys of the Twin Tiers.

Previous discussion...
At 3 AM... The cold front has finished clearing the area. Band of
high clouds currently over Poconos-Catskills is also about to
exit. Where showers and thunderstorms occurred Monday afternoon-
evening, the clearing sky has been able to harness leftover
moisture near the surface to produce valley fog. Hazleton PA and
Sidney NY have both taken turns at a quarter mile visibility.

Any localized fog will not last long after dawn, because of the
decent pressure gradient that still exists over the area, as well
as the dryness of the air mass advecting into the region. High
pressure is centered all the way up over Hudson Bay and even
Northern Manitoba, but a large surface ridge extends from it
through the Great Lakes region. Pressure gradient between the
incoming ridge, and departing low pressure in far eastern Quebec,
will be realized in the form of northwesterly winds with gusts
well into the teens today. The air mass from the Canadian high is
quite dry, with dewpoints mixing down into the upper 40s-lower 50s
this afternoon. That will be very noticeably more comfortable
compared to the mugginess of the last few days.

As surface ridge moves in, winds will decouple quickly under a
mainly clear sky this evening. This will allow for good
radiational cooling conditions. Lows will be in the upper 40s-
lower 50s in Central NY, and generally 50s in Northeast PA.


245 AM Update....
500 mb ridge axis will be across our area by 12Z Wednesday and
will shift east by afternoon. Under sunny skies temps will be well
into the 70s to near 80 in urban areas. Heights begin to lower
Wednesday night into Thursday, in response to a strong trof moving
through the Upper Great Lakes. The best upper level support is
well, well north of our area Thursday. At best a thin ribbon of
vorticity moves through with an increase in 1000-500 mb relative
humidity ahead of a surface cold front. Best chances for rain will
be across NY State but QPF amounts will be light due to the upper
level support being minimal.


245 AM Update...

The cold front mentioned above slowly moves across our area
Thursday night into Friday. Again its likely we will a fair amount
of light showers across the area with the passage but without good
upper level support, QPF will be low. Later Friday into Friday
night may be drier than what we have indicated right now based on
some of the new guidance coming in. For now will maintain low
chance pops based on a SUPERBLEND of models but again we may be
able to take these rain chances out if models continue to trend
drier. High pressure will bring dry weather Saturday, but the next
trof digs into the Upper Midwest. Unlike the one at the end of
this week, this one tracks farther south and may end up right
across our area. The result is higher chances for rainfall along
with a trend toward cooler weather.


VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with pre-dawn
exceptions for KELM-KAVP. KAVP had rain/storms roll through in
the late afternoon-early evening period. Leftover moisture from
that activity will thicken the fog to IFR-LIFR 08z-12z. Rain did
not impact KELM, but still enough radiational cooling early this
morning for restrictive valley fog prior to 12z. Other that those
early morning fog concerns, a mainly clear sky for all terminals
today into tonight. Variable for light west wind early this
morning, will gradually veer northwest 6-12 kts during the day and
then light northerly or variable this coming night.

Wednesday...VFR except for MVFR/IFR pre-dawn valley fog possible
/mainly KELM/.

Thursday-Friday...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms; better chances will be Thursday Night-Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.




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