Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 021058
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
658 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
DENSE FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT BETWEEN
14-15Z. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS ROUNDING THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OHIO. THIS WAVE WILL DRIFT EAST
TODAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER PA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE... MAINLY OVER NE
PA. THIS WAVE MAY CREATE A SHOWER OR TWO... BUT FOR THE MOST
PART... THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY TODAY.

LATE TONIGHT A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AROUND 03Z THURS. THIS WAVE MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP WED NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON... REACHING THE MID
TO UPPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND REACH WESTERN NY BY AROUND 15Z. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
PROBABLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STILL DO
NOT THINK ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE... JUST LOWER TEMPS. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NEPA FRI AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE UPPR LVL RIDGE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE REGION. FRI
EVENING THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WHICH WILL END
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS LONG
RANGE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT TUESDAY BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE SLOWER WITH FRONT. WE ALSO RAISED
THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE LONG RANGE BY COPYING IN THE
LATEST SUPERBLEND. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL HOLDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


TUESDAY PM UPDATE: RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH
THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST
SITES THIS MORNING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OCCURRING FOR
KELM/KBGM. BOTH THESE SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE RESTRICTIONS AT
TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT
OCCURRING FROM 13-15Z. MEANWHILE FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME LOOKING AT
MAINLY MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. BEYOND
THIS TIME VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT ALL SITES
WITH JUST SOME SCT CU.

EXPECT RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN SITES
(KITH/KELM/KBGM) ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS OF MIST AND
FOG...THICKEST FOR KELM AS USUAL. WE DO NOT BRING IN RESTRICTIONS
FOR KSYR/KRME FOR THIS TIME AS APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE BRINGING
IN HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD TEND TO MITIGATE FOG FORMATION.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...ABS/PCF
AVIATION...PCF


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