Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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839
FXUS61 KBGM 241932
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
332 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain hot into Monday with increasing humidity. A storm
system will move across the region Monday bringing showers and
thunderstorms, from late tonight into Monday evening. A few of the
thunderstorms could have damaging winds and large hail. High
pressure and dry weather will return for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 pm update...

High pressure in control at low levels. Clouds are beginning to
thicken starting at upper levels but flow shifts increasing
moisture and lowering the clouds. Sharp divide between the dry air
and convection over Ohio. This convection will die over PA. More
convection will fire this evening and move southeast behind it and
ahead of the warm front. These showers and thunderstorms could
make it to the far western and southern CWA late tonight. This
further moistens the lower levels. Dewpoints will rise to around
70 late tonight and Monday. Lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

Monday will feature another cold front. SPC has the area in slight
and marginal risk for severe thunderstorms mostly due to winds.
Again questions on if conditions will line up at the same time.
Across the area morning to midday clouds and showers will be here
holding temperatures down some. Partial clearing early afternoon
before the main show happens. Max temps return to the upper 80s
and lower 90s. Model differences on coverage of the afternoon and
evening convection. Again this batch will start over upstate NY in
the lee of Lake Ontario then push se getting stronger. Cape values
of 1 to 2k with 30 kts of bulk shear. Shear increases further late
but probably not in time. Signs of a weakening EML will help the
lift with conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates. Will need
to watch for flash flooding as multiple rounds of thunderstorms
could follow the same track.

Monday evening the convection is in the Catskills and Poconos and
heading southeast quickly. By 6z this will be out of the area but
it will remain warm with lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models in excellent agreement that this period will be quiet as
high pressure builds in bringing mainly clear skies with
relatively comfortable levels of humidity. Temperatures will be
around average for this time of year Tuesday before warming a few
degrees heading into Wednesday. Also, NW winds will be a little
breezy Tuesday with lighter winds for Wednesday.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast models begin to diverge during this period as far as the
day to forecast specifics, especially after Thursday. However in
the big picture, the overall set up will be for lower heights and
increasing broad upper level troughiness over eastern Canada back
toward the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a series of waves look to move
west to east through the base of the trough bringing the area
increasing chances of much needed rain.

To start the period, there will be chances for scattered
showers/storms by late Thursday as a cold front moves south toward
the area. Temperatures will be quite warm ahead of this front with
highs Thursday in the 80s to near 90. We keep rain chances in the
forecast for Friday through next weekend as indications are that
the above mentioned cold front may stall in the vicinity of the
area as a series of waves ripple east along the boundary. The
temperature trend during this period should be for somewhat cooler
daytime highs, mainly in the low to mid 80s, with warmer lows due
to increasing cloud cover and moisture.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 pm update...

VFR conds will cont into tonight. High broken clouds. Late tonight
thunderstorms could make it to AVP. Showers and thunderstorms over
se Ontario/Ohio/Michigan will die but more will form this evening
and move ese through PA. Late morning through the afternoon showers
and thunderstorms possible at all sites. Conditions could fall to
MVFR in showers and thunderstorms due mostly to vsby but possibly
to cig.

Weak winds under 10 kts will continue into Monday. This aftn no
common direction under the high. Tonight e to se winds at 5 kts.
Monday sw winds at 5 kts.

OUTLOOK...

Mon aftn and eve...Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR to MVFR.

Mon overnight to Wed night...mainly VFR.

Thu to Fri...showers and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR to MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...TAC



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