Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 291043
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
643 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY...PROVIDING RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 AM UPDATE... SUMMERY WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY...AS DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THUS...AFTER ANY
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...WE`LL ONCE AGAIN SEE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE...AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...PROGGED 925/850
MB READINGS SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST...WE`LL
LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THIS IS A
RESULT OF INCREASED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION...WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BETTER WIND FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD PRECLUDE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

IT WILL BE A MILD MUGGY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
REGION THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THIS FEATURE AND ALSO TRENDED
TOWARD DEPICTING A WEAKER, MORE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY. THAT SAID,
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HIGH WITH PWATS MAXING
OUT AROUND 2 INCHES SO AS FRONT CROSSES WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SINCE FROPA WILL BE EARLIER, BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE FRONT WILL ARRIVE
MORE TOWARD TIME OF MAX HEATING. INDICATIONS ARE FOR ML CAPES OVER
EASTERN ZONES TO MAX OUT BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG...THOUGH 0-6 KM
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL, AROUND 25-30 KNOTS, WITH WEAK ML LAPSE
RATES ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM SO RISK OF ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
MARGINAL AND BE CONFINED MAINLY TO ROUGHLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CWA AS DEPICTED BY SPC OUTLOOK. INITIALLY VERY SOUPY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER, MORE COMFORTABLE AIR
BY LATE DAY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS SKIES ALSO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT A HUGE TEMP CONTRAST WITH
FRONT SO HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MORNING OVER FAR N/W
BOUNDARY OF CWA FROM STEUBEN COUNTY NE THROUGH SYRACUSE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...WE INCREASED THE POPS SATURDAY OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL NY TO CHANCE AND ALSO BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO LONG RANGE FORECAST. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD...AND ANOMALOUS TROF AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST
FROM SAT-TUES. THIS IS LIKELY TO INDICATE PERIODIC STORMINESS AS
INDIVIDUAL WAVES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE FAST POLAR FLOW. CONFIDENCE
AND TIMING IN ANY DETAIL IS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL HAVE
NOMINAL SLGHT CHC/CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
COINCIDING WITH DAYTIME HEATING... BUT THERE ARE HINTS IN THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN OF IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH AT NIGHT. GENERALLY
USED A BROAD SPECTRUM BLEND OF MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WEDNESDAY UPDATE... FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KELM BY AROUND 13Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH
KSYR AND KELM TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO WE INSERTED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS ONLY AT THESE TWO
SITES.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 5-8 KT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...HEDEN/PCF
AVIATION...MLJ


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