Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 052335
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
634 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WAS
HELPING TO ROTATE A FEW CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WERE NOT ALL THAT FAR
AWAY. BUT THE MAIN AFFECT FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BE
ANOTHER RATHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR COULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
STEAM FOG TO FORM ON LARGER BODIES OF WATER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER BENIGN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY...WHILE HELPING TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS LIKE IT COMES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS REALLY NO SURFACE FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH THAT GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
DIRECTLY AFFECT US. BUT THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LET DEW
POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO THE POINT WHERE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. I`M STILL HESITANT TO GO
MUCH MORE THAN CLIMO POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...HOWEVER.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SCT 6-8 KFT CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED FOG IN VALLEYS AND NEAR RIVERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND COULD
AFFECT NEARBY TERMINALS. GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH DEVELOPMENT...WILL WATCH TRENDS AND MAKE UPDATES IF
NEEDED.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. A SCT CU FIELD AT 7KFT WILL ALSO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
NO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     45  74  47  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    45  73  49  80  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  49  74  52  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  75  51  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      48  74  52  81  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      48  73  53  80  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  49  76  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        47  76  51  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...
CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...HALE...JEFFERSON...LEE...
LOWNDES...MACON...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PIKE...RANDOLPH...
RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...
TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$



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