Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 220024 AAA
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
624 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We will focus on the short term, particularly tonight and the
potential for severe storms across the area. A discussion focusing
on the extended forecast will be issued later today.

This morning storms moved out quickly, with clearing skies and
warm temperatures in their wake. A stalled frontal boundary
stretches from the Gulf Coast near New Orleans to Mobile and then
angles to the northeast and cross far southeastern Central Alabama
and into Georgia. This front will be key in the potential for
severe storms tonight. A strong upper level impulse ahead of the
main trough will rotate into the area tonight, with both a low
level jet intensifying across the area and the upper level jet
nosing into the area from west. This will push the stalled front
back to the north, with the airmass south of the front becoming
increasingly unstable. Bulk shear values support updrafts and
thunderstorm development, while low level shear is supportive of
tornadoes, some of which could be strong.

The highest threat area will be across south Central Alabama,
generally near and south of the US Highway 80/I-85 corridor, but
will also be contingent on how far north the warm front lifts. To
the north of the front, storms will likely be elevated, but pose
a risk of damaging winds and large hail. Heavy rainfall is also
possible, and with saturated ground conditions, if and where
storms train over the same area, localized flooding in urban areas
and small streams will be possible. See the HWO and graphics on
our website for additional details concerning the severe threat
overnight.

This wave of storms will be end from southwest to northeast,
moving out of the area around 6AM. There is a low chance of
another wave of storms across the southeast tomorrow afternoon,
but that is dependent on how storms evolve overnight and how/if
the airmass can recover ahead of another upper level jet expected
to move across that area in advance of the approaching upper level
trough. Confidence is very low in whether this threat
materializes.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

A warm front is expected to push northward some from the coast
tonight ahead of another round of showers and thunderstorms.
Strong to severe TSRA are possible especially toward I-85 corridor
(MGM/TOI) 10p-6a time frame. Other terminals are definitely not
in the clear but best chance for severe activity is SE part of C
AL. Lower cigs are expected to develop this evening ahead of the
convection. Winds will be light this evening ahead of the activity
and should shift to the SW late tonight into Sun as convection
moves through.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong to severe storms can be expected tonight, along with
periods of heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts through Sunday will
average 1 to 2 inches. Drier conditions return through the
beginning of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     55  63  45  53  35 /  70  80  70  20   0
Anniston    57  65  46  53  37 /  70  80  70  20   0
Birmingham  57  64  46  54  36 /  70  80  60  20   0
Tuscaloosa  56  65  46  56  37 /  70  80  50  20   0
Calera      57  64  46  55  38 /  70  80  60  20   0
Auburn      60  67  48  56  40 /  70  80  50  20   0
Montgomery  59  68  47  58  39 /  70  80  50  20   0
Troy        58  69  47  59  39 /  70  70  40  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$

14/08



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