Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 292335
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
635 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016
For 00Z Aviation.
Rest of Today through Tuesday.
Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development is ongoing
across Central Alabama this afternoon. Additional 1000-500mb
moisture is a contributing factor, in addition to a weak 500mb vort
max that is pushing westward across southern Georgia and
southeastern Alabama. PWATS on the KBMX 12z sounding this morning
support the higher moisture amounts, measuring 1.59 inches. Still,
scattered coverage of showers and storms at best can be expected the
rest of the afternoon and early evening. Much like on Sunday, we can
expect any remaining showers and storms to diminish through 8pm.
Mostly clear skies will prevail through the overnight hours.
Tuesday may actually have less coverage of showers and storms, as
overall moisture in the atmospheric profile decreases a bit. Best
1000-500mb moisture should reside across the southeastern counties
of Central Alabama, pushing westward from a weakening mid-level
system along the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines. Only
isolated showers and storms are currently being mentioned. As TD #9
continues to move northward in the Gulf of Mexico, the pressure
gradient will begin to tighten a bit, especially the farther south
and east you go. Winds will begin to increase, prevailing around 10
knots with gusts between 15 to 20 knots along and south of the I-85
Tuesday Night through Sunday.
Models continue to converge on TD#9 recurving to the north and
then northeast Tuesday Night into Wednesday as the upper ridge is
expected to break down allowing the low pressure system to move to
the northeast toward the Big Bend area of Florida by Thursday.
Before then on Wednesday, look for only typical summertime
isolated convective afternoon/early evening in the far southeast
counties. As the system moves closer and finally onshore, look for
slightly better pops on Thursday during the daytime. However,
overall we will be on the drier side of the tropical system with
minimal impacts to Central Alabama and low QPFs. As the low moves
away on Friday into Saturday we will have only low pops in
generally the southeast counties to continue with an easterly
wave. Drier conditions move into the area behind the exiting
tropical system as it moves further into the Atlantic and as we
head into latter part of the weekend and a larger ridge builds
over Eastern Conus.
00Z TAF Discussion.
Clusters of outflow boundary-driven showers and thunderstorms are
moving through MGM-TOI as of the 23Z-hour, with fair weather at
the remaining terminals as the last few cumulus towers are very
isolated (and should only produce a pulse shower at the most).
I`ve gone with precip. through early-evening at MGM-TOI as we
await trailing activity to pass. Once it does, these terminals
will join the rest of the pack with fair weather through the
overnight. Surface winds will bounce between calm to light and
On Tuesday, forecast profiles show quite a bit of `drier` air
aloft. I believe we`ll have enough moisture to get the usual
bubbly afternoon cumulus, but shower/storm chances will be on the
low-end; thus, I`ve continued with VFR through the day and will
let later TAF updates determine precip. inclusions (of which
appear most likely toward MGM-TOI). Surface winds should average
from the same heading, but increase to 6-11 knots.
Generally dry conditions with above average temperatures will
continue thru mid week, with only isolated afternoon storms each
day. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 70 91 70 92 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
Anniston 69 91 72 92 72 / 20 20 10 10 10
Birmingham 74 93 74 94 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
Tuscaloosa 74 94 74 95 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
Calera 73 92 73 93 73 / 20 10 10 10 10
Auburn 72 90 72 92 73 / 30 20 10 20 10
Montgomery 75 94 74 96 75 / 30 20 10 10 10
Troy 72 92 72 93 73 / 30 20 10 20 10