Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 311734 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
For 18Z Aviation and forecast update.
Activity over Mississippi although deteriorating as it moved
toward Alabama has set into play an outflow boundary that is
moving eastward across the northern half of Alabama. At the same
time, we are heating up very efficiently this morning, a couple
of degrees warmer than yesterday. Cumulus field is building. So,
we are expecting the atmosphere to be unstable enough to generate
some pop up showers and thunderstorms as the boundary pushes
through. This will be the spark and continued boundaries are
possible to keep this going through the afternoon. So have upped
highs a tad and pops as well for this afternoon. These should be
brief storms, but a few could give some breezy conditions with any
outflows that develop locally with individual storms.
18Z TAF Discussion.
VFR tafs for the most part. Have very warm temperatures today and
an outflow from North Mississippi storms from earlier moving
across northern half of alabama from west to east that could bring
a little more activity than normal. Will forgo adding TSRA to tafs
just yet as coverage may be spotty. Have gone with VCSH for
TCL/BHM/EET for now but will be monitoring for development and any
additional outflows for any necessary amendments. For tonight,
only minor if any patchy fog probably just TOI if any unless we
get an isolated significant downpour at any of TAF sites.
Rainfall coverage will remain spotty through Friday due to the
presence of an upper ridge over the southeast states. Above
normal temperatures will also continue thru Friday. Rain chances
will increase this weekend as an upper trough axis approaches
North Alabama. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.
/Issued 356 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
Well the end of May is here and Meteorological Summer begins on
Wednesday. Seems to be right on par as if feels and looks more like
Summer. Today will be much like yesterday with isolated
showers/storms possible during the afternoon. As with a typical
summer day activity will be hit and miss and widely isolated. Some
of the high res short term models are hinting and possibly more than
20 percent coverage but just do not have any large focus mechanisms
moving across Central Alabama to justify more than that. There is an
upper level feature that will slide across northern Mississippi that
could enhance coverage across the west. but better chances will remain
west of Alabama. Majority of you will remain dry. Any showers/storms
dissipate by sunset along with the loss of the daytime heating.
WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY.
Alabama will remain under the influence of an upper ridge thru
Friday. Subtle features will enhance local convection but overall
rain chances will remain low during the period. The presence of
the ridge will also keep the recent string of above average
daytime going through Friday. On Wednesday, the low level flow
will become southerly as the trof over the East coast weakens and
the storm system over Texas increases in strength. This low level
flow pattern will enhance rain chances over the northern counties
Wednesday afternoon and will forecast slightly higher rain chances
in this region. Thursday and Friday will see a similar set-up with
the better rain chances north of I-20, which is more on the
periphery of the upper ridge. By Saturday and Sunday an upper trof
will dig southward into the Mississippi River Valley region and
break down the upper ridge over the Southeast states. This will
result in higher rain chances and cooler daytime temperatures
across central Alabama. Sunday looks like the day with the most
widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms. By Monday the
upper trof axis will push far enough east to bring drier mid
level air into north Alabama, with the rain shifting to areas
south of I-20.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 66 91 66 89 67 / 10 30 20 40 40
Anniston 68 92 67 90 68 / 10 30 20 40 30
Birmingham 71 92 70 91 70 / 10 20 20 30 30
Tuscaloosa 69 93 69 92 69 / 10 20 10 20 30
Calera 69 92 69 91 70 / 10 20 20 20 20
Auburn 69 90 69 90 70 / 10 20 20 20 20
Montgomery 71 96 70 94 71 / 10 20 10 20 20
Troy 70 95 69 93 70 / 10 20 10 20 20