Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 301126 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
626 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR JIM HOGG
AND BROOKS COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE WITH FOG/HAZE CONCENTRATED UNDER THE INVERSION. AS
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS THIS LOWER LEVEL WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
RETURNING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
GUSTY AS PREVIOUS DAYS REMAINING MODERATE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
18 KNOTS. THIS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH VFR
PREVAILING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE
NORTHERN FL COAST ACCOMPANIED WITH AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
WESTWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO
MIGRATE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE AREA. TODAY MOISTURE WILL STILL BE VERY LIMITED TO THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY RAIN TODAY. GRADIENT SLIGHTLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING A MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE EARLY IN
THE EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES. INTO FRIDAY...MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE MID LAYERS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
BY MID DAY FRIDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOT ACROSS THE RGV
THURSDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 105 TO 107. INTO FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHILE EAST OF HIDALGO THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
90S.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES WESTWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CWA FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FEATURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL BRING THE BRIEF RAIN CHANCES TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 500MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT NO SCEC OVER THE
LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 3 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ249-250.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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