Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 252252 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
452 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...REALLY CANNOT GET MUCH BETTER AVIATION-WISE THAN WHAT
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
500 MB TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND PURE VFR FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE AERODROMES. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW...WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM ROUGHLY THE SOUTH
BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND PREVAILING AT THAT TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW AN ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN WED AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A WEAK
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S WED AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING
INTO THE 50S AND 40S WED NIGHT WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL OF THE TEXAS REGION. EARLY THURSDAY
..A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SHIFTING WINDS NORTHEAST AND EAST THURSDAY BUT THIS HIGH SHIFTS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO
RETURN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT FRIDAY BUT WITH THE SE FLOW EXPECT A
QUICK WARM UP WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY. WITH THE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO
THE WESTERN GULF...SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INCREASING MAINLY THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ENTERING THE STATE THIS WEEKEND FLATTENS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES
EAST. THIS WILL DEEPEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH INCREASING THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS
BUT MOISTURE CONTENT IS VERY SHALLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH RAIN. AT THIS TIME LEFT INHERITED 20 PERCENT
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
REMAINING NEAR THE COAST. DUE TO WAA THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR THE 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND LOW TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO THE 60S.

ON MONDAY MORE PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL SOUTH...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THE CWA. A MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
DEVELOP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER NORTH TEXAS
NEXT WED FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY SHARPER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET
WITH NORTH 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO AHEAD
AND CANCEL THE SCA FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS AND REPLACE WITH
SCEC. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY EVENING...ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW RETURNS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THE MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF WATERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WILL DEEPEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING THE SE FLOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 6 FEET WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA POSSIBLE FROM EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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