Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 010010 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
710 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FAIRLY SIMPLE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD THEN
SOME POSSIBLE BUMPS IN THE ROAD AS WE MOVE LATER INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE USUAL EVENING SOUTHEAST GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
CUMULUS FORMING NEAR KBRO. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BOTH NAM/GFS
AND CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE AND FORECAST/OBSERVED SOUNDING
SUGGEST A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITHIN 2 HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND 12Z. CONFIDENCE NOT A
LOCK SO FOR NOW HAVE ROLLED A TEMPO GROUP WITH SCATTERED AS
PREVAILING.

AFTER SUNRISE...CLOUD LEVELS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH LOWEST VALUES
TOWARD THE COAST UNTIL 16/17Z OR SO. STILL FORECASTING
SCATTERED...THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF BROKEN PERIODS
THROUGH NOON.

FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS OF THE FORECAST...18Z TO 00Z/AUG
2...THINGS COULD GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS WHEN THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WIND SURGE
ALONG HIGHWAY 77 REACHES KMFE AND SURROUNDING AREAS BY 21Z OR
SO...THE APPROACH OF THE SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH KEEPS
WINDS IN CHECK AND EXPECT VALUES TO HANG AT BARELY MODERATE
LEVELS...10 KNOTS OR SO. AT THE SAME TIME...LAYERED MOISTURE
ARRIVES/DEVELOPS FROM THE RANCHLANDS EAST TOWARD THE MID VALLEY
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO `SEED` THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE
AND BRING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED STORMS. BOTH NAM AND GFS
CROSS-SECTIONS AND POINT SOUNDINGS BEAR THIS OUT...BUT COUNTERING
ARE PRIOR MODELS THAT HELD BACK ON THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

SO...DON`T BE SURPRISED IF A VICINTY THUNDERSTORM OR EVEN A PROB
GROUP (OR MORE) IS NEEDED FOR KMFE AND PERHAPS KHRL ON
FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A
BETTER READ WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE WHICH IS GENERALLY MORE
STABLE AS THE LATEST ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS
PROVIDE A BETTER BASELINE.
52/BSG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE UNUSUALLY EARLY COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY DROOPING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND WILL BE
STALLING TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SOUTHERLY BREEZES
ARE TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE
TRIES TO IMPEDE WESTWARD...BUT DRY AIR IN THE REGION KEEPING IT
FROM SPARKING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS ATTM. FRONT STAYS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING...HELD IN CHECK BY THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
THE CONTINUED PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT IS THE RAIN CHANCES. LIGHTER
WINDS TOMORROW WILL HELP THE SEABREEZE BECOME MORE FOCUSED AS IT
MOVES INLAND EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE VARIED IN THE AMOUNT OF
SEABREEZE PRECIPITATION BEING PRODUCED...GENERALLY DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.
HAVE FOCUSED PRECIPITATION ON THOSE AREAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH THE SLIGHTLY ACTIVE SEABREEZE AND ANY SHOWERS
THAT DRIFT SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT ITSELF INTO NORTHERN JIM HOGG
AND BROOKS COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASED AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...BUT LITTLE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES
WANE AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW WITH THE SEABREEZE DISSIPATING DUE TO
LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AFTER SUNSET...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY FILLS. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES LOOSENS ITS CONTROL OVER THE REGION
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH THE RIDGE
WEST. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES AS MOISTURE POOLS AND PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
2 INCHES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. BELIEVE THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAINS NORTH OF THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND LIGHTER EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...A DECENT SEABEEZE
SHOULD DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOT THIS WEEKEND...THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THEY WILL BE MODERATED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INLAND AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
NOT QUITE TOUCHING THE CENTURY MARK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF
AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
RELAX FOR THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE WILL EXPIRE AT 6PM AND LIKELY
WILL NOT NEED ANY EXTENDING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AREAWIDE. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 3 FEET WILL SLOWLY RELAX TO 1
TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES LATER TOMORROW...BRINGING SOME HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST
UPDATES CONCERNING ANY GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SEAS REMANING LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FEET. THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BE HIGHER IN
AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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