Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 312349 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
649 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...The main forecast challenges during the next 24 hours
will be the timing and coverage of thunderstorms. latest BRO radar
indicates ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
northern ranchlands. Sct low clouds and gusty southeast winds
prevail across valley taf sites this evening. Some convection
may develop later this evening as an upper- level disturbance
approaches from the west...possibly affecting MFE after 06z.The
latest HRRR model suggests some convection impacting all the taf
sites after overnight. Will mention a tempo for HRL and BRO for
some lingering convection after 07z. Thunderstorms could develop
again by late morning, but confidence on timing not especially
high since much will depend on what happens between now and then.
Will maintain PROB30`s for HRL/BRO sites for now.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

..Heavy Rainfall and Local Flooding Expected to Affect Parts of
Deep South Texas/RGV For Remainder of the Week...

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Main forecast issue
in the short-term will be chances for heavy rain, especially
Wednesday night and on into the long term.  Current water-vapor
channel satellite imagery shows an upper-level low spinning over the
AZ/Sonora border region. Conditions are fairly quiet at the moment,
as we appear to have stabilized even as the upper-level ridge
continues to flatten and move eastward.  Atmosphere is quite
"juiced" for convection once some forcing arrives.  12Z BRO raob
indicated 2.1 inches of PW. Short-term model guidance continues to
show a mid-level disturbance moving through the area in the WSW flow
aloft, with main impacts generally between midnight and 6am and
tending to focus on the western counties. 1-2+ inches of rain are
possible from any storms that form.  A few could even go severe, per
SPC Day 1 Outlook, with large hail and possibly strong winds.
Buoyancy will certainly be sufficient but shear may be lacking.

A relative lull in activity may occur during the daytime on
Wednesday, but models indicating another, stronger short-wave more
directly tied to the main upper-low (which will be moving into the
Big Bend region) moves through the area.  This will trigger
widespread thundershowers, moving from west to east through the
night.  WPC progs indicate widespread 1-2 inches areal average
amounts, with locally heavier amounts certainly possible.  Flash-
flood watches are likely to be required from Wednesday night through
Thursday for western counties at least...and may need to be expanded
through the rest of the CWA.

Existing temp grids were not changed greatly from what was

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): After short term
evening/overnight convective blowups that move from the Sierra
Madre into the Rio Grande Plains/ranchlands and probably survive
enough to bring action, particularly to the Mid Valley with
"debris" rain closer to the coast. By Thursday, the core of the
culprit upper low is centered over the Texas Big Bend, with still
decent diffluent flow to keep a rain threat going through the day.
Exactly *how* that threat evolves is anyone`s guess. The feeling
here is that whatever is left of the Wednesday night MCS/QLCS will
have disrupted the surface wind pattern (showing fairly robust
southeasterlies in background) with morning lighter rains and some
residual thunder. By afternoon, assuming some recovery, convection
would be able to fire quickly on old boundaries and lower
convective temperatures..."auto" convection one might say. For all
these reasons will retain a broad brush with likely rain chances
but will temper daytime QPF as much of the initial big surge will
be tonight and again Wednesday night.

Thereafter, the forecast further descends into muddiness.  GFS
reenergizes the convection as another wave moves underneath the 500
mb low, located Thursday night over the Hill Country. 12Z GFS favors
best chances toward the coast which is the current forecast and will
continue this, along with somewhat amped up QPF once again. By
Friday, the 500 mb low parks itself mid-state near Austin, with
"bagginess" in the trough oozing into Deep South Texas.  This
concentrates deepest moisture just to the north of the RGV, but
remaining debris and old boundaries from Thursday night`s convection
should allow action to "go" quickly with any breaks and recovery.
With little else in the way of forcing, the current chance PoP (40-
50 percent) vs. likely looks fair for Friday into Friday night.

For the weekend, the descending and elongating 500 mb low shifts to
an axis from Nuevo Leon Mexico through Houston, with coastal
troughing developing and deep moisture pooling on the back side,
somewhat analogous to a winter Texas Gulf Low situation. Saturday is
a bit of a wild card with the ECMWF jumping on a day of low rain
chances despite region being under the upper low, likely due to a
pocket of dry air sliding underneath the system on mid level
westerlies.  I`m not too sold on that and given what`s left of the
cool core in early June see a 50/50 day with locally heavy rainfall
still a possibility with any destabilizing sunshine.  Saturday
night/Sunday may be wetter once again but more on the shower vs.
thunder side.  Rainfall totals could become an issue once again with
potential back side banding, and will have to address with later
forecasts.  Lower temperatures on the whole are likely as well in
low level northerly flow under the moisture and rain canopy.

Lingering light rains not out of the question Monday and perhaps
beyond as system takes sweet time exiting, but low confidence means
little change to the forecast to start the next work week.

Bottom line? Keep the umbrellas handy, and residents of low lying
areas prone to flooding may need to keep the canoe or kayak ready as

MARINE: Now through Wednesday night: Modest southeast flow will
continue through the next 36 hours. Winds may occasionally reach
SCEC levels, but not expecting and SCA`s. Seas are expected to run
3 to 4 feet through the period. Showers and thunderstorms will be
increasing especially starting Wednesday evening.

Thursday through Sunday: Wind outcomes will be highly predicated on
convective development inland and movement of outflows over the
water especially on Thursday.  Background winds are moderate
southeast and this will remain the forecast, but reality could range
from 2 to 4 hour periods of gale force gusts from remnants of
QLCS/MCS moving into the Gulf from the Valley/northeast Mexico to
light variable winds where flow has been disrupted. This holds into
early Friday.  By Friday night/Saturday, the approach of the upper
low and associated surface boundary will bring lighter and more
variable winds to the waters...outside of convection...which will
continue before a backing to the north/northeast at some point
Saturday night and Sunday. Seas will largely be driven by convection
which could create quite a range but for background and forecast
purposes will gradually dip from moderate to slight...2 to 3 the weekend.


.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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