Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 120807
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF
SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 406 AM EDT SATURDAY...BASICALLY OFFERING A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH
VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. LOOKING AT GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF
+20-22C SUPPORTING HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WHILE GENERALLY RISING THROUGH
THE DAY WILL HOLD IN THE 50S FOR COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH WIND OF 5 TO 15 MPH. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 406 AM EDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY
BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING SO WE`RE JUST LOOKING AT SOME INCREASING
SKY COVER TONIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S AND INCREASING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL JET OF NEAR 40KTS AT 925-850MB HELPING TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT TO OUR WEST. DUE TO THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET WE COULD SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. NOTHING
SEVERE IS EXPECTED THOUGH AND PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE NORTHEAST THOUGH AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS OCCURS TUESDAY (SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS) BUT
CAN`T RULE ANYTHING OUT ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND PLENTY OF SURFACE INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH. LIMITING FACTOR TO ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WILL BE THE
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF TO OUR
WEST. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY RETURN TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT BE MILD AND MUGGY WITH
BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EDT SATURDAY...LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE T-STORMS ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TREND/RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS. NEAR SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

A RELATIVELY DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
AT 12Z TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ENEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
EITHER LATE TUESDAY (00Z GFS SOLUTION) OR WEDNESDAY (SLOWER 00Z
ECMWF SOLUTION). A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING
THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE REGION DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH BAND OF STRONG SWLY FLOW AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS. INSTABILITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING
ON POTENTIAL FOR INSOLATIONAL HEATING...BUT BASED ON 00Z ECMWF
850MB TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C AND LOW-MID 60S 2-METER
DEWPOINTS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY PRESUMING PARTLY SUNNY INTERVALS EARLY IN THE DAY.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY (AROUND 60%) WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN COMBINATION
OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STRONG SWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THE PRIMARY THREAT. WE/LL JUST NEED TO
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF INSTABILITY FIELDS AS WE APPROACH THE
EVENT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SHOULD BE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PERIOD. THE 850MB TEMPS COOL TO AROUND +9C ON WEDNESDAY AND
ONLY RECOVER TO +10 TO +11C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT
RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPR 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG IN THE FAVORED
VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...OTHER THAN LOCALIZED FOG AT SLK/MPV 07-11Z
THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AND
RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
EXPECTED AT PBG WITH SE WINDS 5-8 KTS DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS OWING
TO DOWNPOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN HUMID AIR MASS ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY...WITH FOG POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK/MSS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT (MAINLY 06-12Z TIME FRAME).

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 406 AM EDT SATURDAY...NO CONCERNS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE CREATING ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...EVENSON







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