Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 211807
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
207 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1247 PM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST RAP/RUC40 CONTINUES TO IMPACT NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT.
SOME MINOR RETOOLING OF THE POPS BASED ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC AND
LOCAL RADAR TRENDS WAS DONE ONCE AGAIN. THE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME LIKELY
AS THE H500 CLOSED CIRCULATION IS OVER LAKE ERIE. AT THE SFC...A
WEAK SFC TROUGH IS OVER CNTRL PA/CNTRL NY. THE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA. CLOUDY SKIES AND
ON AND OFF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION TIED TO THE
UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MAINLY L50S IN THE
DANK AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 206 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY ON...BUT A TREND TO FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS IN
THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN POPS AND WX BASED ON A
BLEND TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM NEAR CAPE
COD. THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN
PORTIONS OF VT.  SEVERAL SPOKES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND THERE COULD BE SOME W/NW UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN DACKS. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY PULLING
AWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER
TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO M40S.

SAT-SUN NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY ONE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY...AND ANOTHER ONE DESCENDS S/SE FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY.
THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT THIS
NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE
PLACED IN THE FCST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WERE PLACED
FROM RUTLAND AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AS THE H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO +2C
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NY...AND WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS /POSSIBLY A FEW U50S ON
SAT/...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 30S TO L40S.

MON-TUE...IMPROVING WX TREND FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO OPEN THE WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A RETURN S/SW
FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACCORDING THE GFS H850
TEMPS SOAR BACK TO +12C TO +15C ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. A MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO U40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TEMPS COULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
M60S...AND EVEN A FEW U60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH PEAKS WILL
EVEN BE IN MID TO U50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES
BRINGING INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...AND IFR
VISIBILITIES AT KMPV. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY MVFR
BETWEEN 1-3 KFT BY 21Z...WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT KSLK AND VFR
CEILINGS AT KRUT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BETWEEN
6-12 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLOW AT KBTV AND KRUT.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
AT KMPV OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KMSS AFTER 12Z WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING IN. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA/EVESON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY EVENSON






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