Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 251809
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
109 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread mixed precipitation has decreased in areal coverage
early this afternoon with only spotty mixed precipitation
expected across Vermont this afternoon and scattered rain
showers over northern New York. The gusty winds southeast winds
over parts of the area will also be tapering off this afternoon.
Drier weather moves in tonight and continues Monday into Tuesday
as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 109 PM EST Sunday...Winter Weather Advisories have been
cancelled across our area. Temperatures have warmed above
freezing across northern New York and any precipitation this
afternoon will be in the form of scattered rain showers. The
areal coverage of precipitation has noticeably decreased across
Vermont as well. Temperatures over western Vermont have warmed
above freezing and any precipitation will be in the form of
scattered rain showers. However...across eastern Vermont most
locations are at or below freezing with warming temperatures
aloft...spotty mixed precipitation will exist...but amounts of
precipitation will be light and should not have as much of an
impact as the widespread precipitation that fell this morning.

Previous Discussion...
Precipitation pushing into the region this morning quickly as
expected. Currently we`ve seen rain, freezing rain, snow and
sleet. Still expecting freezing rain and sleet to last longest
in Northern NY with the warm nose pushing in, and mainly snow
and sleet east of the Greens. Previous discussion follows.


Thermal profiles still suggest warm nose aloft pushing into the
area and changing mix of sleet and snow over to freezing rain
during the morning hours across Northern New York. There will be
light ice accumulations before changing over to rain this
afternoon. In Vermont, cold air will stick around longer, so
mainly expecting sleet and snow through the morning with about 1
to 3 inches. There will be warmer air near the surface making
it into Western Vermont and changing the snow over to rain late
in the morning. From the Greens eastward, the low level air will
hold on longer, so after some morning sleet and snow, there
will also be a chance for freezing rain late in the day as the
warm air aloft moves in.

Downsloping southeasterly winds will also be a concern
especially this morning. Parts of the western slopes of the
northern Adirondacks and the west slopes of the Green Mountains
will see 35 to 45 mph wind gusts from the southeast during the
morning hours. This will likely have an impact on some areas and
the ability to see any noticeable precipitation as the stronger
winds will limit the snow and sleet accumulations.

Precipitation should be ending by about 00z across the whole
area. There may be some lingering drizzle or freezing drizzle
after 00z for a bit. Quiet weather will then return for tonight
and Monday with no further precipitation and temperatures well
above seasonal normals. Lows will be in the 20s and lower 30s

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 302 AM EST Sunday...Dry weather is expected for
Monday night and Tuesday as ridging prevails at the surface and
aloft. A fast-moving shortwave will traverse across the region
Monday but don`t anticipate much more than an increase in clouds.
Lows will be in the 20s for most, though the Northeast Kingdom will
drop into the teens. Tuesday will be relatively mild for late
February under a mix of sun and clouds; highs will be in the lower
to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 302 AM EST Sunday...Mainly dry weather is
expected through the middle of the week. High pressure centered to
our south will gradually shift offshore, resulting in southwest flow
across the Northeast CONUS. A weak front will slide south out of
Canada later Wednesday into Wednesday night, which may result in a
few rain or snow showers in the northern Greens and Adirondacks.
Uncertainty increases thereafter as the model solutions diverge on
the evolution of an upper low crossing the Midwest into the
Northeast. A primary surface low looks to develop somewhere over
the IN/ON/MI area Thursday, giving way to a secondary low off the
East Coast Friday morning. The question is where this secondary low
develops; the GFS is by far the furthest north and west, producing a
985mb low just off Long Island. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and Canadian NH
are further offshore, keeping the secondary south and east of the
benchmark. The GFS solution would bring a messy mix of wintry
precipitation, moderate at times, to nearly all of our forecast area
Thursday night and Friday. The further-offshore solutions would keep
precipitation limited to mainly southern Vermont and primarily in
the form of snow. Have stayed close to a model blend for this time
frame for temperatures and PoPs for now, and limited weather type to
rain/snow, though if the GFS is correct, a period of sleet and/or
freezing rain would be possible.

From Friday night on...a drying trend can be expected heading into
the weekend, though some wrap around showers may be possible as the
low wraps up to our east. Temperatures look to remain above seasonal
normals heading into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Areal coverage of precipitation has
decreased and/or exited the area early this afternoon.
Visibilities should remain in the VFR category...but could still
lower into the MVFR category with any scattered showers moving
into the area. There may be some fog overnight...but should be
spotty and only reduce visibilities into the MVFR category. The
lingering precipitation this afternoon will still be of the
mixed variety but should trend towards being rain showers. No
precipitation is expected after 00z. As for ceilings...still
looking at VFR/MVFR ceilings through about 06z before becoming
VFR for the remainder of the period. Gusty winds through 00z
before gradually tapering off to 10 knots or less.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Evenson/Neiles



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