Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 211826
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
226 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The forecast is beginning to sound like a broken record. High
pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the region
until at least the middle of next week with Jose staying
southeast of New England. Dry weather and well above normal
temperatures are expected through much of the forecast period
with max temperatures approaching record values this weekend.
Early morning fog in primarily the usual favored locations is
also expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 224 PM EDT Thursday...Models show the mid level high
pressure ridge will remain anchored over the Great Lakes with
the surface ridge extending along the Saint Lawrence. This puts
the BTV area under predominantly light northerly winds, dry
weather and patchy morning fog in the usual valleys. Friday
temperatures will continue above normal with lows mainly in the
upper 40s and 50s and max readings mainly in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...What is left of Jose drifts even further
southeast of the area as high pressure aloft builds into the
Northeast. Dry weather will continue as a result with plenty of
sunshine expected. Highs will be in the 80s across the entire
area...well above normal for this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...Upper ridge becomes established over the
area Sunday into Monday and the warmest 850 mb temperatures
overspread the region as well. Highs both days will be well into
the 80s and would not be surprised if someone hits 90. This
will be up to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Still no precipitation and plenty of sunshine expected. With dew
points in the 60s it will definitely feel more like summer.
Ridge begins to weaken a bit Tuesday into Wednesday and
eventually an upper trough begins to move toward the area on
Wednesday. This may enhance the potential for some showers on
Wednesday and the southwest flow aloft associated with the upper
trough looks to be sufficient enough to ensure Hurricane Maria
moving up the East Coast remains south and east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period with the exception of overnight IFR/LIFR
cig/vsby at KMPV/KSLK. Northerly winds 5-10 kts during the day
will diminish overnight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23
to Mon Sep 25

Day    Burlington     Massena      Montpelier
9/23   87 / 1895      84 / 1964    83 / 1965
9/24   84 / 1961      87 / 2010    83 / 1961
9/25   85 / 1891      90 / 2007    85 / 2007

For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching
specific temperature thresholds

90F or higher:  9/16/1939
88F or higher:  9/22/1965
87F or higher:  9/23/1895
86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NRR
NEAR TERM...NRR
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...NRR
CLIMATE...BTV



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