Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 310000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/TDS AND SKY COVER TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL WATCHING DECAYING CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH AS OF 700 PM...WITH CURRENT TRENDS
SUGGESTING THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
WE LOSE INSOLATION. THUS CURRENT IDEA OF 20/30 POPS...MAINLY
ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH 900 PM STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER-WISE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL CAP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BAY. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A LITTLE
BIT OF INSTABILITY BUILDING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH MAY PROVE
TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH
THE EVENING. LATEST RAP/BTV6/HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL...BUT
QUICKLY DISSIPATES ANYTHING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
MAY SLIDE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS A BIT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
AGAIN WON`T LAST LONG. ALL IN ALL...LOOKING AT GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS AROUND SARANAC LAKE AND LAKE
PLACID NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
CEILINGS VFR. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXIST THAT WE EXPECT FOG
AT SLK/MPV AFTER 04-12Z...AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 12Z. DURING
THURSDAY MORNING...STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS LATE MORNING THOUGH AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT
6-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM
EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM





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