Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 240745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO





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