Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 181857
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
157 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Plenty of clouds will persist over the area tonight through
Friday. Some light precipitation is also possible tonight into
the first part of Thursday, mainly some light rain or light
snow...but there may also be some light freezing drizzle across
part of northern New York and northern Vermont. The clouds will
also keep above normal temperatures over the region through
Friday as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 157 PM EST Wednesday...Plenty of fine details for the
tonight through Thursday time period. For tonight...plenty of
low level moisture will exist over the region along with areas
of fog as satellite imagery shows plenty of clouds upstream
headed our way. The warmer temperatures over the fresh snowpack
should also enhance the potential for some fog and have included
for the entire area. Weak shortwave trough moves across eastern
Canada tonight and could see some light snow over the area later
tonight...mainly over the northern and central sections of
Vermont. Any accumulations would be less than an inch. Of note
however is the loss of ice in the clouds...especially over
northern New York tonight. This would set the stage for some
light freezing drizzle and have included in the forecast.

On Thursday...looking at plenty of cloud cover all day and with
upper ridge building in...low level inversion strengthens to
keep clouds and some fog in over the area. As will be the case
tonight...warmer air over fresh snowpack will also help enhance
the potential for low clouds and fog over the area. Will keep
the idea of areas of fog going for Thursday with highs in the
30s to around 40. In addition...areas over northern Vermont may
have a little light snow early...but ice goes away in the clouds
and some light freezing drizzle may occur in this area as well.
Drier air finally moves in during the afternoon hours on
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 314 AM EST Wednesday...Generally looking at improving
conditions for the Thursday/Friday timeframe with some lingering
upslope light rain/snow showers focused over the high terrain
diminishing Thursday, and strong 500mb ridging building in aloft
for Thursday night and Friday, offering dry conditions to end
the work week. Even though strong subsidence will be shifting in
with the ridge, forecast soundings are indicating abundant
moisture trapped beneath a low-level inversion holding tough
through much of Friday and potentially longer into the weekend.
Thus, have adjusted sky cover to indicate cloudier skies and
subsequently lower temperatures slightly with highs both days in
the mid/upper 30s and lows Thursday night in the mid 20s to low
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 314 AM EST Wednesday...Aforementioned upper ridge and
surface high pressure continue to dominate the North Country`s
weather going into the weekend with decaying shortwave energy
shifting out of the central CONUS into the Ohio Valley falling
apart as it hits the ridge and providing nothing more than some
clouds. Subsidence aloft looks to finally win out over low level
moisture as well so looking at partly cloudy skies through the
weekend along with above normal temperatures in the upper 30s to
low 40s.

Next potential system looks to impact the region early next
week as a shortwave trough pulling east out of the lee of the
Rockies Saturday night develops a strong surface low over the
southeast states Sunday, then tracks northeastward along the
east coast during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Ptype could be
an issue with this one with blocking high pressure in place over
Nova Scotia keeping low levels close to or below freezing,
especially east of the Green Mountains Monday evening, but
eventually a strong low/mid level jet pushes a warm front
through the region Monday night transitioning precip to rain. At
least that`s what the models are telling us now, but there`s
lots of time for things to change so stay tuned. For certain
though, temperatures look to remain very mild by late- January
standards with highs continuing to push into the 40s, and lows
in the 20s/30s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 18Z Thursday...A wide range of conditions exists across
the area this afternoon with MVFR to LIFR ceilings and IFR to
VFR visibilities. Unfortunately these conditions will continue
to be rather variable through about 00z and then there will be
an overall trend toward lower ceilings and visibilities during
the overnight and morning hours on Thursday. During this time
period were should see fairly widespread IFR and LIFR
ceilings and IFR to MVFR visibilities. Other than some brief
snow showers there may be some light freezing drizzle
tonight...especially at KMSS and KSLK. Winds will trend toward
light and variable at all locations through 00z and remain there
for the remainder of the period.

18z Thursday - 18z Friday - dry weather is expected but the
potential for low clouds and fog creating MVFR and IFR
conditions will exist during this period.

18z Friday through Monday - VFR conditions are expected through
the period.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Evenson



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