Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 011122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING
WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY WANING.
STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG


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