Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 050829
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
429 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP SULTRY
MID SUMMER CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS THREE DAY WEEKEND WILL ACTUALLY AVERAGE
HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM OUR FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THIS PROLONGED
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY END LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STACKED 590DM RIDGE AND 1024MB SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER SUN FILLED DAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND THE BULK
OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY CONTINUING TO TREND
AT LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF MID JULY. H85 TEMPS WITHIN A DEGREES OR
SO OF 16C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND IN THE VALLEYS...WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THAT WILL PUSH APPARENT TEMPS
ABV 90 FOR MUCH OF THE IAG FRONTIER AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES.

WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY...
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY...AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BECOMES STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE MID SUMMER AIRMASS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 10 MILE STRIP CENTERED OVER THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG WITHIN THIS
AREA...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 20K FT AND PWAT VALUES ARND
1.5 INCHES...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SLOW MOVING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. HAVE ADDED THIS RISK WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL
WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE SRN TIER WILL
COME TO AN END WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF NIGHTFALL. OTHERWISE...WE
CAN ANTICIPATE ANOTHER FAIR SULTRY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SETTLING TO THE 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S EAST OF
LK ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE SRN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...BROAD RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTHWARD OVER TIME...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE MOST PART...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND MIDSUMMERLIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
OUR REGION RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SAID...THERE COULD BE
A COUPLE EXCEPTIONS TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
BE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
POP SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY
WHEN A PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK
LARGER-SCALE LIFT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL CARRY SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL. THE SECOND CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION WILL THEN ARRIVE
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS
IMPINGING UPON OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND COULD TOUCH OFF A
FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE PROCESS AS IT INTERACTS WITH
OUR WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL...WITH THE BALANCE
OF THE REGION OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

WITH RESPECT TO HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS...850 MB TEMPS INITIALLY
BETWEEN +15C AND +17C ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TO AROUND +18C MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MID 80S SUNDAY RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S MONDAY...
WHEN A FEW OF OUR NORMAL WARM SPOTS ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY/
FINGER LAKES COULD REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS FOUND ALONG THE
LAKESHORES. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SUCH
WARMTH WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT WILL FEEL MORE TYPICAL OF
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY THAN OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT ON THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING A LITTLE CLOSER ON TUESDAY THOUGH STILL REMAINING
LARGELY TO OUR NORTH...BEFORE PUSHING MORE DIRECTLY INTO OUR AREA
DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH LEND SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST... THE ABOVE SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN ONE MORE VERY
WARM TO HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C TO
+19C SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S...ALONG WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING RISK OF CONVECTION THROUGH
MIDWEEK. AT THIS POINT...HAVE REFLECTED THE LATTER IN THE FORECAST
WITH BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT INCREASING
TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THAT...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES CONTINUING TO
EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS IN
THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER COMPLEX WAVE ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE
IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTER OF
THE CONTINENT. GIVEN BOTH THIS AND 00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF THE
FRONT GENERALLY STALLING OUT EITHER DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OR A LITTLE
BIT TO OUR SOUTH LATER ON IN THE WEEK AS THE NEXT WAVE DEVELOPS
AND RIPPLES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT... AT THIS POINT FEEL IT BEST
TO KEEP BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL KEEP FAIR DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR NEARLY A WEEK...LOW
STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KJHW AND KELZ.

LATER TODAY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY
ABOUT 14Z. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 15Z JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST WEEK OR
SO... STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
TIER AND PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY AM FOG.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRETY
OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SO WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH



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