Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 280010
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
810 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Fair and warm conditions will be the general rule through early
to mid next week. A weak front, with limited moisture, will
traverse the forecast area tonight, with fair and warming
conditions expected Friday into the weekend. A weak dry front
moving through late Sunday/early Monday will reinforce dry
conditions early to mid next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Satellite imagery shows well defined upper ridging across the
western US, and deep troughing across the eastern US. The water
vapor imagery indicates moist conveyor belt shifting east of the
forecast area. There should be little convergence associated with
the diffuse cold front moving into the area and with a lack of
significant upper lift and shallow moisture the shower chance
should remain very low tonight. The temperature forecast is no
track. Expect lows in the mid to upper 50s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the weak front/trough, surface high pressure will shift
into the region late Friday into the weekend. Upper trough over
the E CONUS will lift to the north some, with upper ridge center
shifting east along the Gulf coast, providing a continued dry WNW
to NW flow aloft for our area. With building upper heights over
our area and nearly zonal upper flow well to our north, along
with some h85 downslope flow, well above normal temps expected.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Latest GFS continues to indicate a dry front moving through the
area Sunday night/early Monday. High pressure is forecast to
ridge down the eastern seaboard with a building upper ridge over
the SE CONUS, ensuring dry conditions. Some cooler air to enter
the region behind the front, but still above normal temps
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to continue through the period. Most
areas to remaining dry, but cannot rule out an isolated shower
north of the terminals this evening. Activity should not impact
any of the local terminals through the period. Winds out of the
south to southwest tonight with speeds less than 5 knots. With
the increase in low-level moisture, and light winds, patchy fog
may become an issue at the usual fog-prone sites during the early
morning hours. Have gone with mvfr conditions at cae/cub/dnl, and
the possibility of ifr at ags/dnl for brief period towards
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
No impacts to aviation expected at this time.