Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 302159
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
559 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Remains of Bonnie currently along the central SC coast will move
very slowly to the northeast over the next couple of days. This
will keep plenty of moisture across the area along with chances of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Showers
and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast late in the week and
through the weekend as a frontal boundary stalls over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Remains of Bonnie continue to move very slowly east northeastward
toward the Myrtle Beach area with showers across the eastern
Midlands and Pee Dee. Current WSR-88D network shows showers
associated with Bonnie extending from the eastern Midlands and Pee
Dee with the heaviest showers stretching from Chesterfield county
southward through Clarendon County and eastern Orangeburg County with
lighter rain elsewhere in the eastern Midlands. Latest SPC HRRR
indicating convection diminishing early this evening with loss of
daytime heating. Potential for heavy rain remains...however this
is primarily contained to the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee.
The remains of Bonnie will move very slowly so expect clouds to
linger especially over the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee. Lows
tonight will be in the middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models depict a lingering surface trough near the forecast
area in the wake of low pressure moving northeastward slowly. Weak
upper troughing is also indicated. However, the models display
deepest moisture northeast of the forecast area. The pattern
supports scattered showers and thunderstorms especially during the
times of maximum heating. Followed the guidance consensus for the
pop forecast. Also used the consensus for the temperature
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The medium-range models display surface troughing remaining through
much of the period. The models show the upper pattern mainly flat.
The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 30 to 40 percent through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rain showers across eastern South Carolina will dissipate around
sunset. Showers will generally remain east of the TAF sites the
rest of the afternoon with the exception of OGB. Cloudiness
lingering overnight as Bonnie reaches the southern NC coast around
daybreak Tuesday. With the low level moisture from recent rain
there is potential for fog or CIG restrictions late tonight/early
Tuesday morning...have include mention for AGS/OGB from 31/08z
through the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning restrictions
possible each morning. Low confidence in restrictions in
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday...with increasing chances Friday and Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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