Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 061530
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1030 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX AS THE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON
THE AREA LAKES...CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 MPH. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STAYED WITH CURRENT THINKING FOR
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUDS ARE NOT ALLOWING MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPERATURES CROSS THE CSRA AND CNTRL/ERN MIDLANDS. STRONG
NET RADIATION COOLING SUPPORTS THE COLDER GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS NEAR 70
SATURDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND SUPPORTS THE
COLD GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST DURING MUCH OF THE REMAINING
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 40
PERCENT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 16Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18-19Z THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. VFR WITH
CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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