Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 200812
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
312 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry surface pressure ridge will dominate through Sunday.
Moisture will increase ahead of a cold front Monday. The front
will move through the forecast area Monday night or Tuesday
morning. Showers will be associated with the front mainly
Monday night. Warmer conditions will occur through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The dry east-west oriented surface ridge axis will be just south
of the forecast area through tonight. A mid-level shortwave trough
approaching from the Lower Mississippi River Valley today will
move through the area tonight. The models and satellite trends
indicate significant moisture and lift ahead of the trough will
pass well south of the forecast area. Expect just some cloudiness
locally. We followed the guidance consensus and forecasted
milder temperatures with highs today mainly in the lower 60s and
lows tonight in the 30s. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF MOS support
winds west about 10 mph today and light tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry surface pressure ridging extending into the forecast area
from the Atlantic will dominate Sunday and Sunday night. There
will also be ridging aloft in the wake of the shortwave trough
moving east of the area Sunday morning. It will remain dry
with mild temperatures. Followed the guidance consensus
temperatures. Winds will be light with the ridge axis in the
region.

Upper troughing will begin to affect the region Monday and
moisture will increase. The models display an associated cold
front approaching Monday and moving through the area Monday
night or Tuesday morning. The GFS and ECMWF MOS indicate the
highest pops Monday night with values 50 to 60 percent. The
ECMWF depicts moisture lingering in the east section a little
longer Tuesday morning. We maintained a small pop in the east
section Tuesday morning. Otherwise, expect the dry air mass will
dominate behind the front Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF plus
nearly all SREF members support light rainfall amounts of less
than one-quarter of an inch. The temperature guidance may be a
little too low Monday night because of mixing and cloudiness
along the front. The guidance may also be too low just behind
the front Tuesday. Expect breezy conditions behind the front
Tuesday. The GFS forecast sounding and expected mixing support
gusts near 25 knots. A lake wind advisory may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display ridging dominating Tuesday night
through Friday. A moisture increase may occur in an onshore flow
Friday but both models keep significant moisture suppressed
south of the area toward the Gulf Coast. The GFS and ECMWF MOS
have pops 10 percent or less through the period. The MOS has
near normal temperatures during the period with lows in the 30s
and highs near 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the period.

Dry air remains firmly entrenched over the region and will
dominate the TAF period. Satellite imagery shows a weak upper-
level disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico with clear
skies over the terminals. Expect mainly clear skies along with
light and variable winds through the period with a few high
clouds late in the period as the disturbance moves south of the
area this evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Monday night
and Tuesday as a cold front crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99


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