Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 050248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEW CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF STORMS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA. THINK THE
AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE NIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA COULD IMPACT PARTS OF
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATING.NEXT BATCH
OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WESTERN GA AND IS ALSO DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY. FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINS LOW DUE TO INSTABILITY
AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVE IN
WESTERN GA MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 05Z...THEN BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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