Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 240233 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1033 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
High pressure will maintain fair weather through Friday. A frontal
boundary will move into the region, and provide a chance of showers
and possible thunderstorms, mainly late Saturday night and Sunday.
Another front will move through Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure continues to build into the region from
the northeast while and upper level ridge axis to our west
shifts eastward overnight. Latest satellite imagery showing
clouds developing across much of central and northern GA into
the Upstate of SC associated with weak isentropic lift. Some of
these lower clouds expected to develop eastward into the CSRA
and western Midlands overnight but generally remain confined to
those areas where better isentropic lift will be. Bufkit time
heights showing another low level jet overnight which will help
keep the boundary layer mixed and surface winds up.
Temperatures will be impacted by clouds and winds so not
expected any locations to fall to freezing tonight and the
chance of frost is low because of some mixing and large
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high will begin to slowly weaken and shift slightly east
Friday, providing some moderation in temps/dewpoints. Upper ridge
over the area and strong subsidence expected. Weak isentropic lift
and moisture recovery may provide some stratus, possible fog, late
Fri nt/Sat morning. Deep low in the Midwest will be moving slowly
east-northeast Saturday. Moisture continues to increase Saturday
with upper ridge weakening and shifting southeast...but lift mainly
west of the region and expect any showers to remain west of the
region through the afternoon. Continued warming trend.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Closed upper low, and surface low, to shift NE from the Central
Plains to the Great Lakes, with upper trough axis approaching our
region Sat nt and moving through Sunday. Best upper dynamics to
remain to our north, but chance pops with possible thunderstorms
expected in weakly unstable air mass. Another upper trough/front
appears will move through Tuesday.
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period but it is
possible MVFR ceilings may develop during the early morning
Onshore flow will increase low-level moisture as upper ridging
moves in from the west. Expect VFR stratocumulus and possible
MVFR at times under the subsidence inversion after 06Z and
lasting through 18Z on Friday. The fog chance appears limited
by boundary layer mixing and the MOS forecast of significant
temperature-dew point temperature spread. Followed the GFS and
NAM MOS and forecasted wind east to southeast 10 knots or less.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions may occur Saturday
morning in fog and stratus associated with an onshore flow.
Deeper moisture and a frontal system near the area may help
support scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions Sunday and Monday.