Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 252336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR REGION. EMBEDDED
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THIS EVENING. 2028Z ACARS
SOUNDING AT CAE STILL INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. AT THE
SURFACE...FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A WEAK DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND MOVING NE ACROSS
N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3/4 TO
ONE INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE MOMENT...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE AT
TIMES. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO LOWER TO LIKELY IFR MAINLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY. THE LOW
CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR
ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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