Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 211438
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1038 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure over the region will remain in place
through the weekend. Weak upper troughing will be over the area
through Friday night supporting chances of scattered
thunderstorms. Upper ridging will return to the region on
Saturday removing the chance of thunderstorms from the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak high pressure at the surface will remain over the region
through tonight along with a weak upper level trough. Pwat
values will again be around 1.5 inches with moderate instability
through the afternoon hours. Will again see slight chance to
chance pops for thunderstorms this afternoon with the highest
potential over the eastern Midlands into the southern CSRA. Main
concern with thunderstorms will be some dry air in the mid
levels which will support wind gusts...however the potential for
severe thunderstorms remains low. Although there will be weak
short waves crossing the area tonight with the loss of heating
expect the majority of convection to diminish with sunset with a
slight chance of thunderstorms overnight mainly along and south
of I-20. Afternoon highs will again be in the lower 90s with
lows tonight in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Synoptic situation will remain relatively unchanged Friday as
Tropical Storm Jose remains south of Cape Cod and Hurricane
Maria moving northward near the Bahamas. With slightly drier air
over the region there will continue to be chances of
thunderstorms with the highest potential over the southern
Midlands and CSRA. On Saturday the situation will continue
slowly changing as upper level ridging builds into the New
England area and drier air enters the northern and central
Midlands. With the drier air have remained without mention of
thunderstorms in the forecast...however expect some afternoon
cumulus to develop over the southern Midlands and CSRA.
Temperatures through the short term will be in the upper 80s for
afternoon highs and mid to upper 60s for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models remain in good agreement through the long term with
little change in the synoptic situation through early next week.
Concern in the forecast remains for Late Monday and Tuesday as
models move the remains of Tropical Storm Jose and Hurricane
Maria in proximity to each other. Some potential for remaining
moisture to be pushed westward into the forecast area however
does not appear to be enough to bring any precip to the area. On
Wednesday the situation will begin changing as Hurricane Maria
moves northward well off the Mid Atlantic Coast and a cold front
moves through the central US. have remained with a dry forecast
as cold front will not move into the eastern US until after the
end of the long term. Temperatures through the long term will
be slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions outside of possible afternoon/evening convection
and early morning fog.

Fog has been slow to dissipate this morning at Augusta, but
should finally return to VFR within the next hour or so as
mixing increasing slightly. Mostly clear skies this morning will
give way to cumulus development early this afternoon. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible through this evening, but
the chance is too low to mention in current issuance. Will
monitor radar trends and amend as necessary. Fog possible again
tonight with dry air aloft, light winds and shallow low-level
moisture. Persistence forecast with MVFR/IFR at times fog at
AGS/OGB terminals developing around 06z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning
fog/stratus possible each morning, mainly at AGS and OGB.
Slight chance diurnal thunderstorms Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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