Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 291152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF
SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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