Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 260527
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
127 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The upper trough axis will shift farther east of the forecast
area tonight. A pressure ridge extending along the Gulf Coast
will direct a dry westerly flow into the forecast area through
Saturday. Moisture will increase Sunday ahead of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Much of the wrap-around moisture associated with low pressure
lifting from the Mid-Atlantic States into New England should
remain north of the forecast area as indicated by satellite
trends. The dry westerly flow north of Gulf Coast ridge will
dominate tonight. Wind diminished this evening with the loss of
heating and less mixing but some wind should continue
overnight. Followed the GFS LAMP for the wind forecast. The
higher guidance temperatures tonight may be better because of
some continued mixing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Northwesterly flow aloft and surface high pressure will promote
subsidence and dry conditions and clear skies Friday. It will be
mild with high temperatures in the mid 80s. Moisture will be
increasing Friday night as surface winds become more southerly
as the surface high shifts offshore, and some mid and high
clouds will move into the area. A somewhat flat upper ridge
builds over the area Saturday and forecast soundings show
strong instability but a significant capping inversion should
generally prevent any convection from initiating. However, a
warm front will be moving into North Carolina, so it is not
completely impossible that a few storms could skirt the
northeast counties of the forecast area through Saturday
evening. It will be even warmer Saturday, with highs in the low
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper ridge over the area flattens on Sunday as shortwave
energy tracks across the lower Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians ahead of a digging upper trough over the upper
Midwest. Low-level flow will veer to the southwest in response
to the digging trough resulting in additional moisture
increasing over the area and supporting diurnal convection
Sunday. Additional shortwaves will move through the region
Monday afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon, which will combine
with daytime heating to fuel showers and thunderstorms. There
could be a break in the activity Wednesday behind a cold front.
Convection will be possible again Thursday.

Temperatures will generally be above normal this period with
Sunday likely the warmest day with highs in the 90s followed by
slightly cooler days with highs mostly in the 80s next week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period.

A very dry airmass has settled over the area with surface high
pressure building in from the west. Light southwest winds
through the predawn hours will become westerly by 15z and
increase to around 10 knots with some gusts to around 18-20
knots. Dry air mass and winds staying up will prevent fog
formation this morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected
through Saturday night. A cold front will approach Sunday and be
stalled in the region through early next week. The front will
help support scattered thunderstorms and associated restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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