Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 250519
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
119 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AS
WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO THAT
THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. HAVE TWEAKED POPS DOWN A BIT BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SURFACE AND
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MOVE ONSHORE
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LOW STRATUS MAY FORM LATE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN AN AREA OF GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST
SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.25
INCHES AND THE FACT THAT THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. LOW CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AT THE SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GFS DEPICTING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF MUCH SLOWER. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST S TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
PROVIDE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE MORNING. FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE
TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...AND OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT
CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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