Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 280138
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
938 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SIDE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY
ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDED FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SC COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH PRODUCING AN EASTERLY
FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY....WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA).

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAIN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEAVING BEHIND
A WEAK CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SE COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BAND OF BETTER MOISTURE AND
OLD SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH TO GRADUALLY DRIFT
NORTH INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH LATEST MODEL
RUNS IS A LITTLE SLOWER TIMING WITH MOISTURE INCREASE...AND
MAINLY RELEGATING BEST MOISTURE TO THE S AND W FA...AND
MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE N FA...AS SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
CENTERED TO OUR E AND SE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY. SO...WILL MAINTAIN TREND TOWARDS
INCREASING POPS.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...MODELS MAINTAIN WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR E AND SE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL BE TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA. LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM NHC BRINGS IT NW TOWARDS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING IT TO A LOW END
HURRICANE. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT DRIFTING TO THE NORTH OR
NE THEREAFTER. FOR NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING IMPACT
FOR OUR FA...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS
AND FOG LATE. STRATUS IS FAVORED INSTEAD OF FOG BECAUSE OF WIND.
USED THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE TIMING OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
DAY. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM MOS TIMING BECAUSE THIS GUIDANCE
DID BETTER THE PREVIOUS DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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