Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 262321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
621 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL BE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DRY SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP KEEP
HIGH CLOUDINESS THIN. EXPECT STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A MOISTURE INCREASE. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT EASTWARD
BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING LINGERING UPPER RIDGING DIRECTING
DEEPER MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP FORECAST WITH THE HIGHER VALUES IN
THE NORTH PART CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS
DISPLAY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT EAST OR SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT MAY BECOME A WARM FRONT WITH
A MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS...
ECWMF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FRIDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE TEMPERATURES
LIKELY WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CONCERN REMAINS IN
REGARD TO POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION MVFR/POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR FOG AT AGS AND OGB
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. BRIEF MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
AT CAE/CUB/DNL FRIDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE TAF SITES ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED THREAT OF FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH RIVER STAGES WERE OCCURRING BECAUSE OF RECENT HEAVY RAIN. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE HYDROLOGIC AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE STAGE AT ORANGEBURG ON THE NORTH FORK OF THE EDISTO RIVER
WILL BE NEAR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SLOWLY
FALLING STAGES BEGINNING MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE FALLING STAGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ALSO...THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS RESULTED IN AN ELEVATED WATER
LEVEL ON LANGLEY POND. AIKEN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ADVISES
THERE ARE CONTINUED STRUCTURAL ISSUES WITH THE LANGLEY POND DAM.
THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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