Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 272317
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
717 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK
THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE
CREATING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WITH TYPICALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...ALBEIT GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND AN INCH THURSDAY
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH BASICALLY NO INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN CHANCES AGAIN THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH SUCH
WARM DAYTIME HIGHS AND A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MORE MIXED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH PWAT VALUES
INCREASING TO OVER 2.0 INCHES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S FRIDAY...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG
MAINLY AT THE RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. HOWEVER...WE
USED THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS AND
CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT GENERALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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