Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 281103
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
703 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will very slowly drift to the southeast of
the region by the weekend as low pressure begins to strengthen
over the Mid-Atlantic. This will provide unsettled weather for
Friday with conditions improving by the weekend as high pressure
becomes the dominant weather feature into next week. Another
system will approach the Great Lakes by the second half of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A couple showers were attempting to develop over Lake Erie
north of Cleveland. These showers were depicted in the short
range models moving onshore to the west of Cleveland. Otherwise
we will await the arrival of the better lift with the upper
level trough.

Previous discussion...
A cold front has stalled across the southern portions of
the County Warning Area overnight. It will move little as we await
the arrival of an upper level trough. This trough will cross the
region through the day. Middle level lapse rates will be enough to
warrant the at the mention of thunder. The depth of the low level
moisture is in question and will limit the coverage of any
convection. The better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be
closer to the stalled boundary and will likely be near and south of
a line from Meadville to Marion. These showers and thunderstorms
should move south and east of the region at some point during the
evening.  High pressure will ridge into the area from the Upper
Great Lakes overnight with drier air arriving with it. However the
cooler air flowing across Lake Erie will be enough to generate some
cloud cover over NE OH/NW PA into Saturday morning.

Weak upper level ridging builds in response to low pressure
deepening to our east on Saturday. This should push the bulk of
the precipitation and thick cloud cover to our east. Cooler
conditions are expected as 850 mb temperatures fall to near 10
C. Dew points will also be lower than they have been over the
past few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough will continue to slide off the east coast early
in the forecast period.  Large broad upper level ridge will begin to
advance east. Fair weather will be the dominant weather through this
period as surface high pressure builds east across the area.  As the
high builds into the area along with upper level ridge, subsidence
will take place helping to clear skies out and bring with it some
more sunshine. After a somewhat chilly start Saturday night in the
50s across the area, we should see highs begin to recover again back
into the lower 80s in the west and lower to middle 70s in the east
Sunday. Due to the high being overhead, good radiational cooling
will take place allowing temperatures to drop into the 50s again
Sunday night.  However, warm air advection will begin to take shape
Monday on the western side of the surface high with highs in the
middle 80s west to upper 70s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Amplification of the upper level high pressure and resultant ridge
over the western United States will take place. This will cause a
trough to dive southeast into the forecast area by Wednesday.  The
troughiness is expected to have some limited moisture with it.  At
the surface, a cold front will slide south toward the area Wednesday
and bring with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Due to
the warm air advection in place, there is enough support to produce
the thunderstorms across the area.  Will keep POPs minimal however
with and ahead of the cold front. The cold front is progged to
become diffuse and gradually dissipate over the forecast area
Thursday.  Moisture associated with the upper level trough and
surface cold front will linger around.  Temperatures will trend
gradually lower with each day due to the colder air in place with
the high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Patchy MVFR conditions were located across the region this
morning. Northeast flow off of Lake Erie will help to keep
moisture levels up through the day as an upper level trough
approaches. Lift with this feature will generate some showers
and thunderstorms through the afternoon but the coverage is
uncertain. The best chances of the showers/thunderstorms will be
near and southeast of a line from KGJK to KI43. So for now only
have a mention in the KYNG TAF and some vicinity wording at
KFDY, KMFD and KCAK. Most of the MVFR conditions should be with
the showers/thunderstorms with any other MVFR ceilings lifting
late evening as the showers move into PA. Some of this cloud
cover will likely redevelop over NE OH and NW PA as some cooler
air flows across Lake Erie.

Northeast winds will likely increase through the day as the
upper level trough passes. So expect to see winds in the 10 to
20 knot range with some gust up to 25 knots possible.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in low ceilings Friday night and could
persist into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft flags will be flying once again as northeast flow sets
up through Saturday afternoon.  Winds will diminish Saturday
afternoon and will likely be able to drop the small craft advisories
at that time.  Otherwise, winds will become light and variable
through the rest of the forecast period as the high pressure becomes
the dominant weather feature across the area.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday afternoon for OHZ003-
     007-009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday afternoon for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Pfahler
NEAR TERM...Mullen/Pfahler
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Lombardy


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