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000
FXUS61 KCLE 251113
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
713 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move east. A cold
front will sweep across the area on Monday with a change to cooler
weather. An upper level low will move south across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made minor adjustments to the forecast hourly temperatures this
morning based on current trends. No other changes for the early
morning update.

Original "today" discussion...
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will drift east today.
High clouds will begin to fill in today, especially this
afternoon, otherwise sunny. Warm advection will develop and will
forecast high temperatures on the warm side of the guidance based
on the expected rise in 850 mb temperatures. Highs from around 70
northwest PA to near 80 around Findlay. A lake breeze will develop
this afternoon but with water temperatures near the expected high
temperatures it will have little temperature influence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The front will cross the northwest Ohio Monday morning reaching
extreme northeast Ohio and northwest PA early to mid afternoon.
The frontal passage will make a transition during the day. By
morning, the front will have out run the convection from the day
before and the showers will begin to dissipate. This will lead to
a weakening line of showers across northwest and north central OH
Monday morning. Will not mention thunder there. By afternoon, the
front will begin to slow as the trough aloft deepens to the west
and it runs into the ridge. New showers and thunderstorms will
develop. This will lead to a more significant rain event from
somewhere near the Ohio border eastward across Pennsylvania/New
York on Monday afternoon/evening. Will have higher pops and QPF
and include thunder for extreme northeast OH and northwest PA.

Will essentially be between systems on Tuesday. The cold front will
be well east and the upper trough/low will be to the northwest.
Cannot rule out an instability shower as the trough approaches and
there will be lake effect showers off Lake Erie in the southwest
flow. Some of the showers could clip Erie County PA. Highs in the
60s.

The upper trough/low is progged to sag south across the area later
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Boundary layer winds will back from the
south as the trough/low approaches and the lake enhancement will
shift northeast away from the forecast area for a time. Made some
minor adjustments to the previous forecast which emphasized the
showers in the snowbelt for Wednesday. With the upper low progged to
drop across northwest Ohio will need a higher pop across the
northwest Ohio counties. As the low drifts south on Wednesday the
wind will back all the way to north northeast and lake enhancement
will be possible across the north central counties later Wednesday
into Wednesday night.

With the clouds and showers, temperatures will not rise much on
Wednesday. Highs generally only in the lower and mid 60s and may
not get out of the 50s if there were to be persistent showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long range models differ in their level of intensity of the storm
system that is progged to move southeast across the area.  GFS is
basically saying no big deal while the European model is saying look
out here I come.  Over the last several model runs the European has
been pretty persistent in bringing the upper level low in while the
GFS has been persistent in keeping the pattern progressive.  But the
GFS has slowed down a bit so maybe some consensus will take place in
the next few model runs to a closer solution.  So, on that note, I
will lean in the direction that this massive upper level low is not
going to be quite as cutoff as the European suggests and take a
middle of the road approach.

Precipitation with the upper level low and surface feature will
begin to pull out Thursday night and bring a return back to fair
weather going into the weekend as high pressure begins to build back
into the local area.

Temperatures through the period will see a slow recovery from the
60s on Thursday under the upper level cold pool back to the lower to
middle 70s most areas by Sunday.  Cooler air to the east will remain
present and keep temperatures in the 60s Sunday. Overnight lows will
dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s and remain steady state through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
High pressure will dominate the area through the early portions of
this forecast period. Some high clouds will begin to move in
ahead of the next cold front during the latter part of the
forecast period. As cold front approaches the western portions of
the area (Toledo and Findlay), showers will begin to spread
into area. Otherwise, winds will be light easterly becoming
southeast later tonight. Lake breeze will set up at Erie from the
northeast during the day.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Monday in showers. Occasional non-VFR
at CLE/ERI with lake effect clouds or showers on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are expected to diminish slightly through the day today and
then pick up again on the lake tonight into Monday out of the
Southeast and then south by Monday morning ahead of the cold front.
Cold front will sweep east across the lake Monday shifting the winds
to a westerly direction.  Small craft advisories will likely be
needed Monday afternoon after frontal passage. Small craft advisory
will likely be needed through early Tuesday night as winds finally
diminish on Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Winds do pick up again
during the afternoon on Thursday out of the north at around 10 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy