Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 191700
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front located over Lake Erie will dissipate later today.
High pressure will build over the area tonight. The high will
then dominate the weather the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers/thunderstorms have decreased in coverage and intensity
through the morning. Still may see an isolated stronger
thunderstorm but for the most part the western half of the
region will only see some light mid level showers.

The cloud cover will be enough to keep the western half of the
region cooler than yesterday.

Weak 7H trough/low will remain over the region into Wednesday.
That slightly cooler air aloft will likely keep
isolated/scattered showers and a few thunderstorms around into
Wednesday.

Original discussion...
Stay closer to guidance today given the amount of clouds
expected. The exception is at CLE where we have again gone
above guidance. More low 80s are expected on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge builds over the forecast area Wednesday night
and hold fast into early next week. Expect dry conditions to
continue with temperatures running around 10 degrees above
normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little change in the long term forecast. Models continue in
good agreement with strong upper level ridge overhead, while a
front is stalled to the west while Jose and Maria drift North
off the East Coast. Temperatures will remain above normal
through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Showers/thunderstorms have decreased in coverage and intensity
through the morning. Still may see an isolated stronger
thunderstorm but for the most part the western half of the
region will only see some light mid level showers. Still seeing
some IFR ceilings across the west where the rainfall occurred.
These should gradually lift as breaks in the cloud cover
develop.

The coverage of the MVFR/IFR stratus and fog later tonight into
Wednesday morning are uncertain but believe some will develop.
Locations that had rainfall will have the best chances of seeing
the non-VFR conditions.

Weak 7H trough/low will remain over the region into Wednesday.
That slightly cooler air aloft will likely keep
isolated/scattered showers and a few thunderstorms around into
Wednesday. Some patchy non-VFR ceilings will be possible in the
showers/thunderstorms.

Winds will remain light.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in fog Thursday through Saturday
mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Shower or isolated thunderstorm possible across the Western Basin
today. Otherwise high pressure will build over the area. Winds
will continue to be light from the East to Southeast.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...DJB



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