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000
FXUS61 KCLE 052353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND UPDATED THAT AREA FOR CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
PUSH SE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THIS EVENING AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS THAT
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE BECOMING NEARLY CALM SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN
ADDITIONAL ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOW PACK ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF DIURNAL CUMULUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL TO
GET RID OF. A SWATH OF 025BKN-025OVC SHOULD PASS OVER KERI THIS
EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF BKN035 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR
ELSEWHERE AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY LATE EVENING. VERY COLD TONIGHT
WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN