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000
FXUS61 KCLE 122042
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND OFF
THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND SHIFT TO THE EAST
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. THE BEST WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES AND THE LIGHT UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
COULD ASSIST IN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRUDGINGLY SNEAK BACK FROM THE ARCTIC. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF HIGH CLOUDS...NOT MUCH SUNSHINE... BUT NOT A LOT OF WIND SO WILL
WILL GRADUALLY FEEL A BIT WARMER. 20S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AND THEN
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR RISING FRIDAY NIGHT.

I THINK THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SOON AFTER FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME GULF INFLOW
DEVELOPS WITH NICE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET. SOME
OF THE BETTER SNOW (MODERATE SNOW PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY??) COULD
OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THE MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR. THE SNOW WILL PROBABLY LAST
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND SNOW FALL RATES WILL LIKELY BECOME
VARIABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SLEET PELLETS OR
FREEZING RAIN DROPS MAY STILL MIX IN FROM CANTON TO YTOWN BUT IT
WILL NOT BE AN ICE STORM. THE STORM TRACK MAKES ME NERVOUS... THE
TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OFTEN LEAD TO A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
SOMEWHERE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS
SO FAR THIS WEEK HAVE GENERATED HEAVY QPF. ALMOST ALL MODELS AND ALL
RUNS BETWEEN 0.20 INCHES AND 0.40 INCHES. A LONG LASTING ADVISORY
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING IS LIKELY. WE WILL WAIT
TO TAKE A PEAK AT TONIGHT`S RUNS JUST TO MAKE SURE THAT THE QPF
AMOUNTS ARE NOT SNEAKING UP. IN ANY CASE...VERY LITTLE WIND AND
TEMPERATURES UP NEAR FREEZING SHOULD MAKE THE EVENT MANAGEABLE AND
GIVE SOME GOOD SLEDDING/CROSS COUNTRY SNOW.

COLDER AIR WILL CIRCULATE BACK IN ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE RETURN OF THE ARCTIC AIR. DROPPED THE
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND THE HIGHS SUNDAY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AND THEY MAY NEED TO COME DOWN MORE
IF THE ARCTIC AIR DOES RUSH BACK IN. LAKE EFFECT WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WEAK CLIPPER ZIPPING ALONG IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE FLOW SO WILL NOT GO ALL OUT
FORECASTING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT YET BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY OVER NW PA. MOST OF THE SNOW
WILL BE UP THE LAKE FROM KERI GIVEN A FLOW JUST SOUTH OF WEST. A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE EVERY
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ERIE
COUNTY. A DRAMATIC DROP OFF IN ACCUMS IS LIKELY THE FURTHER WEST
AND SOUTH YOU GO. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE
CONFINED TO JUST A FEW TOWNSHIPS IN ERIE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE SKIES
WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN STALL. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALLOWING DEEP
MOISTURE TO PENETRATE THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND MOVEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. BUT...THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN
SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS NOW COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND LIKE THE
00Z ECMWF...KEEPS THE PRECIP ALL SNOW. IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ISN`T ENOUGH FOR A WATCH AND
EXPECT THAT LATER SHIFTS WILL GO WITH ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THE SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS AND CHANCE FOR LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN
THE SNOWBELT.  DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE...BUT FOR NOW JUST LEFT CHANCE
POPS GOING.  BY MIDWEEK MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.   THE
ECMWF LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
GFS HAS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH.   BY 12Z THURSDAY
THE ECMWF WARMS THE 850MB TEMPS TO PLUS 4C...WHILE THE GFS PLUNGES
IT TO MINUS 16C.  FOR NOW WILL JUST TREND TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...WHEN IN DOUBT TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW HUGGING THE ERIE SHORELINE EAST OF CLE WILL
EFFECT MAINLY ERI THIS EVENING. EVERYONE ELSE WILL SEE MID LEVEL
DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE. HARDEST HIT WILL BE SNOWBELT EAST OF CLE...BUT
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES AT CLE AND YNG.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.   EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE AS LOW NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR DEEPENS AND SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  CONDITIONS
IMPROVE QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.  QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER LAKES ON SATURDAY.  WINDS
SHIFT TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW...WINDS COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW.

RAPID ICE GROWTH IS EXPECTED ON THE WEST PART OF THE LAKE INTO SAT
THEN ICE GROWTH WILL SLOW SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS TEMPS WARM SOME. ICE
GROWTH WILL INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORNING AS COLDER AIR
RE-SPREADS OVER THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB