Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 172059
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
359 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will quickly shift to the East
Coast overnight. High pressure will build in behind it on Sunday.
Low pressure will track from the Plains to the Midwest on Monday,
lifting a warm front north across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Regional radars show a swath of precipitation spreading north into
the area late this afternoon as low pressure tracks northeast
through the Ohio Valley. Surface pressure falls are also noted
across Indiana ahead of the shortwave that will move across the
lower Great Lakes Region this evening. Temperatures have struggled
to climb this afternoon and remain in the lower 30s all areas. Given
the cooler boundary layer conditions than earlier anticipated, have
removed the mention of rain from the forecast. We are expected to
reside on the northern fringes of the precipitation shield
with only light accumulations possible, generally around an inch
from Mount Vernon to Canton to Youngstown. The next area of
snow south of Chicago is expected to weaken as it approaches
Ohio as the better low level isentropic ascent quickly shifts
east. Most areas will see scattered snow showers for a few hours
this evening, possibly lingering across the snowbelt where a
little enhancement off the lake and low level convergence is
focused.

Skies expected to clear on Sunday morning as deeper moisture quickly
strips away and low level subsidence increases. Light southerly flow
will develop as high pressure over the Ohio Valley gradually shifts
east with temperatures warming into the lower 40s. After a
brief dip Sunday evening, non-diurnal temperatures expected late
Sunday night as warm advection continues. First push of return
moisture arrives late Sunday night and will continue with just a
chance of rain, mainly across the western half of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An influx of deep Gulf moisture arrives Monday as a warm front lifts
north across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. This will bring
us period of rain, likely during the first half or two thirds of the
day. The pattern continues to keep a deep trough across the western
U.S. and an anomalously strong subtropical Atlantic ridge for the
first part of the week. The focus for the heaviest rainfall has now
shifted more across IN and toward northwest OH, leaving the part of
our area with recent heavy rainfall with longer period break from the
significant rain. Latest runs continue to support a frontal passage
on Wednesday. Precip chances remain high for the Toledo area each
period from Monday through Wednesday, with closer proximity to the
main corridor of rainfall. Elsewhere relative breaks are possible
Monday night and Tuesday. Looking to be able to boost temperatures
into the upper 50s/lower 60s Monday after the rain exits. Then
Tuesday we very well may be threatening temperatures records. The
ECMWF ensemble MOS guidance is fairly convincing with a very
narrowly clustered range in temperatures in the upper 60s/lower 70s.
With somewhat lower precip chances and possible breaks of sunshine,
have added another degree on to high temperatures. Wednesday, with
clouds and showers, temperatures will range from the upper 40s
across northwest OH to near 60s across the far southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models continue to struggle with the location of a cold front that
will eventually move across the region by Wednesday night. Have
leaned a bit more toward the ECMWF in the long term since it
typically handles storm systems moving from the southwestern US
slightly better. In any event there will be very moist air ahead of
the front with locally heavy rainfall likely until the front passes.
High pressure will build into the region in the wake of the front on
Thursday but will likely be short lived. The next wave of low
pressure taking shape over the Southern Plains and moving toward the
region Friday into Saturday.

Wednesday looks like it will be the warm day of the long term with
highs generally in the 50s. However if the rain can hold off into
the afternoon we will need to nudge temperatures up. Cooler on
Thursday with highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Southerly flow returns
by Friday with highs back into the 40s to around 50.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Regional radars show snow spreading into SW Ohio that will clip
terminals in NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania late this afternoon
into this evening. Have added a tempo for IFR conditions at
MFD/CAK/YNG between 23-03Z as low pressure tracks northeast up
the Ohio Valley into western PA. Flurries or light snow showers
possible at the other locations with MVFR ceilings, trending
towards VFR from west to east on Sunday morning. Southerly winds
today will gradually shift to the west this evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Sunday afternoon in NE Ohio/NW PA and
again at times Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the lake through
the weekend, generally 10-15 kts or less. Winds will increase to 15-
20 kts out of the southwest on Monday as a warm front lifts north
across the lake and low pressure approaches from the west. The low
will pass north of the lake and take the cold front southeast across
the lake on Wednesday. High pressure settles over the lake for
Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...KEC/Kosarik
MARINE...Oudeman



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