Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 252050
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND INTO THE CAROLINA`S ON
MONDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE MONDAY AND
THEN MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
CLIPPER ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS THE LOW STARTS MOVING EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT THE SNOW WILL
START PUSHING NORTH SOME. THE BIG QUESTION IS STILL THE AMOUNTS OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...MARION...MORROW
AND KNOX COUNTIES WHETHER SIX INCHES WOULD BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING. AT THIS TIME CONTINUING THE
ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE THE SNOW WILL START TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF QPF IS TRICKY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. LOWS ARE ALSO TOUGH...USED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
GUIDANCE AS THE GFS MOS SEEMS TOO WARM AND THE NAM MOS TOO COLD
WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND CLOUDS CONTINUING. THE CLOUDS COULD
TRY TO DECREASE NEAR TOLEDO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A TROF WILL
EXTEND FROM THE INTENSE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SOME
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER NE OH AND NW PA INTO TUESDAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE THAT HIGH. A TROF/FRONT WILL BE MOVING
TOWARD NW OH ON TUESDAY BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT AS A
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT AWAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO CAUSE A
THREAT FOR SOME SNOW. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY THURSDAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER ALBERTA.  THIS LOW WILL TAKE AN UNORTHODOX PATH AND TRACK SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...INTENSIFY...AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN OHIO BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BRING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COULD
POSSIBLY START OUT AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING THURSDAY AND
THEN RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
ELSEWHERE. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND IN ITS WAKE
WILL USHER IN SOME MUCH COLDER AIR BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT DURING THE DAY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN.  SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SEASON ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS A TROUGH LINGERS
BACK OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AS THE LOW PASSES BY
AND REMAIN STRONGER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW TRACK.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE THIS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NO STRONG WINDS TO
PRODUCE GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>031-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





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