Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 050140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
940 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING
MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
JUST THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA EXCEPT IN THE FAR NRN TIER.
ISOLATED SHRA THERE CONTINUE TO ROLL QUICKLY W-E. STORMS IN WRN
NY ARE TRYING TO DIVE A LITTLE S OF E...THOUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY CHC POPS IN THE N OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS NY. WINDS GOING CALM IN MORE PLACES...AND FEEL GOING MINS
ARE ON TRACK EXCEPT FOR THE NRN MTNS WHERE MORE CLOUDS SHOULD
EQUAL SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE
ON WED...ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LGT WIND AND LOW
HUMIDITY.

COOLEST MID LEVEL TEMPS /I.E. ONLY AROUND PLUS 1C AT 700 MB...WITH
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C PER KM/ COULD LEAD TO A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WED AFTERNOON. POPS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE IN MOST PLACES. THE HIGH PLATEAU OF
SULLIVAN COUNTY MIGHT SEE THE BEST CHC OF SHOWER FORMATION AFT 17Z
WED.

GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 10C-13C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE L70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE L80S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN
PART OF THE STATE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT
RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR
QUIETER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE
WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TAFS SENT.

LEFT LOW CLDS AND FOG OUT OF IPT. THINK JUST ENOUGH WIND
FROM THE WEST.

HAVE TO WATCH BFD. LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW...RAIN THERE EARLIER
ENDED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUS HAD TIME TO DRY OUT SOME TODAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE TIME...AND IN ALL
LOCATIONS LATE TODAY...RIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY LIGHT VALLEY FOG WED AND THURSDAY
MORNING...ANY ISOLATED AND BRIEF SHOWERS SHOULDN/T BE ACCOMPANIED
BY ANY SIGNIF VSBY REDUCTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON...THEN A TRANSITION
TO MVFR WITH A STEADY/WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FOR THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA.
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER ONE INCH...AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR CIGS
WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KJST TO KMDT.

SAT AND SUN...EARLY MORNING REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED P.M
SHRA/TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN



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