Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 281537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1037 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AND BE THROUGH CENTRAL PA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM
IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LESS WELL-DEFINED AS IT HAS MOVED THROUGH IPT AND AOO
IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES. BUT WIND SHIFT AND 3 DEG TEMP DROP ON THE
ROOF MEANS IT STILL HAS SOME SLIGHT EFFECTS TO SENSIBLE WX. GIANT
BREAK OF BLUE SKY NOW PASSING OVER STATE COLLEGE AND MAY EXPAND AS
IT GOES TO THE S/E. LOTS OF CLOUDS STILL UPSTREAM...BOTH LOW STUFF
AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WSW. SO...CLEARING MAY BE TOO STRONG OF A
WORD. STILL...IT IS NICE TO SEE THE BLUE SKY EVEN IF ONLY FOR A
SHORT TIME. EARLIER ESTIMATES OF FROPA IN THE SE WERE TOO
QUICK...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS TO BE HAD UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN.
SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER AT OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE FAR SE
THROUGH SUNSET AS A VERY WEAK WAVE ROLLS JUST TO THE S OF THE
STATE. ANY SNOW IN THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS IS
GOING TO BE NEGLIGABLE DUE TO WARMER- THAN FREEZING TEMPS UNTIL
LATE AFTN. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT GUSTY/STRONG AND WHILE IT
WILL FEEL COLDER - IT WILL STILL BE RATHER TAME FOR LATE DEC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BAND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CWA THIS EVENING WITH ORGANIZED
SHOWERS OVER. A COUPLE OF SHSN OR A SPOT OF FZDZ COULD MOVE INTO
THE NRN MTS BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...BUT THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCT AND
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...A WAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. MORE CONFIDENCE THAT IMPACTS/PRECIP
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
AND TUE. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LAURELS ON TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK
AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK
OF DECEMBER. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA AS WE RING IN THE NEW YEAR.

GEFS AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF
2015 DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND. STORM TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF PA BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF MILD AIR BACK INTO THE STATE WITH RAIN THE LIKELY DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN
THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ALMOST A WEEK OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JST IN THE SOUP ON UPSLOPE FLOW WITH MOISTURE AND LOWER CLOUDS
UPSTREAM INTO NRN OH. THEREFORE...IMPROVEMENT THERE WILL BE SLOW
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. BFD ALSO WILL DEAL WITH IFR AND LOW-END
MVFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE NRN MTS THIS EVENING AND COULD TOUCH OFF A
FEW SHSN OR A PATCH OF FZDZ...BUT IT WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. VFR
SHOULD DOMINATE TO THE SE OF THE AOO-UNV-IPT LINE THIS AFTN...AND
THRU THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS AT THOSE THREE SITES WILL
DANCE AROUND FL030 FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY NUDGE BACK NORTH OF THE MD BORDER AND AFFECT THE LNS/MDT VCTY
LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. BUT NO REDUCTIONS ARE FCST AT THIS
POINT. THE FRONT PRESSES SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT.

A WEAK AND FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MIDWEST
COULD BRING MVFR/IFR TO JST IN -SHSN...AND THE WNW FLOW WILL VEER
MORE TO THE NW AND COULD MAKE SOME LAKE CLOUDS/SHRASN AT BFD BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY VFR FOR MANY DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...ROSS/DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/HAGNER
AVIATION...DANGELO


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