Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 210046
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
746 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

The weather for Thanksgiving week travel looks mainly tranquil.
An early week mild temperature swing will be followed by
another shot of cold air Tuesday night into Wednesday. Dry
weather with near average temperatures is expected through
Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Some thin high clouds will occasionally bleed over the ridge
axis, otherwise clear to scattered skies are expected tonight
with minimum temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Readings
will be near to slightly below normal for mid November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A gusty SW return flow and plenty of sunshine will boost
temperatures into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Tuesday. Clouds
will increase into Tuesday night. Expect another shot of cold
air to follow behind a cold front Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. A period of rain/snow is likely with the frontal
passage. Temperatures falling below freezing and potential for
light snow accumulation/melting-refreezing may create slick
roads and areas of difficult travel overnight Tuesday into
early Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level trough will skirt just to the north of
Pennsylvania early Wednesday. Have dropped POPS through
Wednesday though have left slight chance in the NW due to the
northwesterly flow across the mountains. Another area of high
pressure will build east and keep us mainly dry at least through
the end of the week, before a new frontal system takes aim at
the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. There decent
agreement in the EC/GFS timing. The trough swings through
Saturday morning with 850MB temps right around freezing. So
given that overnight lows Saturday morning will be around
freezing expect for scattered snow showers across central PA as
the trough and associated front begin to cross the region
through Saturday afternoon. As the trough moves through
temperatures will be marginal through the low levels so a
rain/snow mix is currently expected with more chance of snow
farther northwest. Still to soon for amounts though any
rain/snow mix will tamper any accumulations. Have adjusted
temperatures as NBM seems to cold Friday night into Saturday.
Minimum temperatures will be below normal through mid week with
a warming trend into Saturday before dropping off Sunday and
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Good VFR will continue through the forecast period as high
pressure remains over the region. Any winds over 10kts will
diminish as we move through the evening hours.

Winds will pick up from the southwest Tuesday morning ahead of
an approaching front. LLWS is possible over KBFD and KJST until
the wind speeds mix down during the late morning.

Outlook...

Tue night-Wed...Rain/snow showers with MVFR likely wrn 1/2.

Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected.

Sat...Chance of rain/snow showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...La Corte/Ceru
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Tyburski



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