Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 010810
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
410 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over eastern Canada will ridge south into
the commonwealth today. Increasing moisture will flow northward
into Pennsylvania for Thursday and Friday...bringing a better
chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms...ahead
of another relatively weak cold front. Saturday is expected to be
dry again...but wet weather will likely may arrive for the second
half of the upcoming weekend as a potent upper trough and stronger
cold front arrives from the midwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Negative tilt upper ridge axis combined with a light llvl nerly
flow of relatively dry air was leading to a mild early morning
with just some areas of cirrus drifting to the northeast overhead.

The light wind and moderate dwpts (ranging from the u40s
north...to the mid-upr 50s in the southern valleys) should allow
temps to fall to 48-50F by dawn across the northern border...and
to the l-m60s across the Lower Susq Valley.

Can`t rule out some patchy fog arnd dawn across the s tier.
However...sfc Dwpt depressions are having a tough time tightening
up below 3-5F in most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Sfc high pressure tracking north and northeast of region today
and a developing, light serly flow of increasingly moist air will
bring a mostly sunny, quite warm and slightly more humid day. Highly
isolated showers and thunderstorms will form after 17z across the
scent part of the state and Lower Susquehanna Valley...and perhaps
along and just to the west of the Allegheny Front where llvl
upslope flow (and morning heating on the se facing slopes0 will be
maximized.

Ensemble mean 8h temps are supportive of high temps mostly in the
l/m80s. Somewhat higher low lvl moisture across the southern
counties, combined with passage of shortwave, could result in an
isold pm shra/tsra down there.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A few showers could move into the far west by Thursday morning
before becoming more numerous and growing to scattered TSRA in
the moderately high ML cape environment across the central and
western portion of the CWA during the midday and afternoon hours.
Far eastern areas may have to wait until near or shortly after 00Z
Friday for any showers/isolated TSRA.

Cold front moves across the area on Friday...with QPF amounts
of .50 inches or less. Not expecting severe weather with this
front.

Models still showing large scale flow to be less amplified and
more zonal in a sense...so front not likely to slow down quite as
much for late Friday into Sat. Adjusted ending time some...sooner
Friday Night.

Still looks like a dry day on Saturday.

More showers for Sunday into Monday...as a jet max moves across
the area. Starting to see signs that dry intrusion and dynamics
could support not only thunder...but even strong storms.

Cooler and drier conditions for late Tuesday into Wed.

Overall a trend toward a cooler and wetter pattern...as a ridge
builds across the west.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth overnight
into Wednesday, keeping conditions primarily VFR. Some patchy
early morning fog is likely in the Susq Valley with MVFR
restrictions. This will burn off by 14z.

A warm front sliding across western PA early Thursday may bring
cig restrictions. Then increasing moisture Thursday and
Friday ahead and along a cold front will bring a likelihood for
showers and thunderstorms /mainly west Thu/areawide Thu
night/mainly east Fri/.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions possible around dawn.

Thu...A.M. cig reductions possible west. Scattered showers/tstms
west.

Thu night...Scattered to numerous showers/tstms. Cig reductions
likely eastern half.

Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with
restrictions possible, mainly east.

Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions possible around dawn.

Sun...Reductions likely in a likely widespread rain with low
cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert
LONG TERM...Martin/Lambert
AVIATION...RXR



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