Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 261745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1245 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Issued at 713 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Update for the new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Warmer weather will finally work its way into the area today and
tomorrow, as the upper low that has kept us in cool northwest flow
will move slowly east of the area. Today the trough will be far
enough east to allow a surface ridge to slide down to southwestern
Minnesota by this afternoon. The eastern forecast area will still
have northwest flow and chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms, but the western forecast area will have more
sunshine and less of a chance for precipitation. High temperatures
today to be significantly warmer than yesterday, with most areas
getting into the middle 60s to around 70. This morning we have a
few locations in the upper 30s, but some modification of the
airmass today and tonight should keep temperatures in the 40s most
locations overnight tonight, despite the ridge shifting over the
top of the forecast area. Tuesday the ridge axis shifts to over
and east of the forecast area, allowing winds to finally turn more
southwesterly by afternoon. We will also be looking at more
sunshine and with warm air advection beginning to set up aloft,
temperatures will rise into the 70s for most locations. The day
should start out cloud free, but the strong warm air advection due
to push in Tuesday night will produce increasing high clouds
during the afternoon hours, and should keep us from getting much
warmer than those 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Summary: Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely
across the Northland from Tuesday night through the weekend. A few
storms may be strong to severe Wednesday afternoon and evening
over southern portions of the CWA.

The Northern Plains upper level ridge will flatten Tuesday night
and Wednesday as a shortwave trough moves across the Dakotas and
into the Upper Midwest. Southerly flow in the low and mid-levels
ahead of the approaching trough will pump additional moisture and
warmth into the Northland setting the stage for several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. Guidance is in better agreement this
morning, but has trended the surface low farther south than
earlier runs. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into
the Northland Tuesday night and diminish in coverage and intensity
early Wednesday. Showers and storms should redevelop Wednesday
afternoon as the surface low advances eastward to our south. That
southerly track will limit the threat of strong to severe storms
to the far southern portions of the CWA. There`s also a chance
rain and isolated thunderstorms from the overnight convection
Tuesday night may continue and drift south during the day
Wednesday, further reducing the severe weather risk. There will be
ample moisture for moderate to heavy rain with the storms and WPC
has included areas along the North Shore to Duluth and all of
northwest Wisconsin in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall.

The upper level trough will slowly push eastward on Thursday.
Rain chances will decrease from west to east Thursday afternoon
and evening. Model solutions begin to diverge Thursday evening
with the handling of the next upper trough moving toward the Upper
Midwest. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms seem likely
from late Thursday night through the weekend, but timing and
location of the precipitation varies from model to model. A blend
of the deterministic guidance yields low "chance" POPs at most,
and we have elected to stick close to the blend for now.

With active weather continuing and a quasi-zonal to northwesterly
flow pattern aloft, temperatures will continue to trend near to
below normal through the long term.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

An upper level low pressure system will continue to pull off to
the south and east today. Cold air moist air aloft will help to
generate scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across the
Northland today and early this evening, with skies generally
clearing out after about 00z Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail throughout the period. Winds will be a bit gusty today,
and once again on Tuesday.


DLH  68  49  74  54 /  30  10   0  50
INL  68  47  74  55 /  20   0  10  40
BRD  69  47  76  59 /  10   0   0  60
HYR  68  46  76  56 /  70  20   0  30
ASX  68  49  76  54 / 100  10  10  30




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