Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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528
FXUS62 KFFC 290118
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
918 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017


.UPDATE...

Made a few adjustments to to the grids through the overnight period,
mainly POPs and hourly temp/dewpt. Lowered POPs through the evening
as the atmosphere remains unstable but a lack of forcing has kept
storms at bay. Basically dropped below slight chance threshold to
begin this evening, then build back to slight chance along the far
north/west by sunrise and to high chance by afternoon tomorrow.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 750 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
After a stormy morning across north Georgia, weather conditions are
much quieter so far this afternoon. The extent of any additional
shower and thunderstorm development for the remainder of the
afternoon into the evening is uncertain given effects from the
morning convection. High-resolution model reflectivity solutions add
little clarity to this aspect of the forecast with considerable
disagreement among them. With that being said, instability has
recovered well across the area, so the development of at least some
isolated showers and thunderstorms is possible through this
evening. Given substantial instability, any thunderstorms that do
develop would have the potential to become strong, and an isolated
severe thunderstorm or two is not out of the question.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to be more widespread on Monday as
a cold front approaches north Georgia and begins to stall.
Scattered convective development can be expected by Monday
afternoon, and with forecast CAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg
range, thunderstorms could become strong to severe. Additionally,
favorable 0-6km shear around 30-35 knots will contribute to the
severe threat on Monday. The primary threat will be damaging wind
gusts with some marginally severe hail and heavy rainfall the
secondary risks.

RW

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Broad upper trough will continue over the eastern U.S. through mid
week with a series of short waves moving across the southeast U.S.
keeping the risk of convection over the CWA. The best chances will
be Tuesday as a band of moisture from the decaying front stalls
over the CWA. After Tuesday the moisture pattern becomes "messy"
with nothing to really pin point where and when the convection
will trigger so will lean heavy in afternoon and evening
convection. The next major system will move into the CWA Friday
and into the weekend as another upper trough develops over the
southwest U.S. and pushes into the southern plains. This will
spread Gulf moisture back into the CWA Friday through Saturday so
have increased pops for the latter part of the long term.

17

AVIATION...
00Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the forecast area
through the period. We will see scattered MVFR or lower visibilities
developing by 06Z and lasting through 14Z, however I do not believe
the threat is high enough at any of the TAF sites to include in the
forecast right now. West to southwest winds are expected to prevail
through the period, generally 6kt or less through 14Z then
increasing to 8-12kt. Although isolated to scattered convection is
possible at any time during this forecast period, the best chances
for more widespread coverage will be between 18Z and 02Z tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium all elements except high for winds.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  87  67  83 /  10  50  30  40
Atlanta         70  85  68  80 /  10  50  40  50
Blairsville     62  78  61  78 /  20  50  30  30
Cartersville    67  83  66  80 /  20  50  40  50
Columbus        72  87  70  85 /  10  50  30  40
Gainesville     68  83  66  80 /  10  50  30  40
Macon           71  89  69  86 /   5  50  30  40
Rome            67  83  66  81 /  20  50  40  50
Peachtree City  68  85  67  81 /  10  50  40  50
Vidalia         74  93  72  90 /   5  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...20



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