Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 171855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
155 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 640 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Water vapor analysis reveals a broad trough across the SW US and
into Mexico with several notable perturbations rotating
within...while downstream of this feature flow becomes more
anticyclonic...with center of ridge across the Yucatan and quasi-
zonal to SW flow across the SE. At the sfc...low pressure was
centered across the Midwest/associated with a strong H5 shortwave/
and its cold front draped S into Arklatex...while sfc wedge has held
on a little longer/stronger than previously thought across Georgia.
Will see wedge front retreat while the cold front pushes south and
east during the short term.

Low cloud cover and fog associated with wedge front has been slowly
creeping west from NE Ga over towards the ATL metro. This should
persist into mid morning across this general area. All other
locations will experience increased cloudiness today with temps
continued warm /upper 60s north to upper 70s central/. Rain chances
will be confined to mainly north Georgia today and will increase as
the day wears on with aforementioned cold front moving towards
the state. By early to mid-afternoon...instability will increase
enough across N Georgia to warrant mention of general thunder.

Overnight Tuesday the cold front will push through north Georgia.
With the best dynamics displaced well to the north...most of the
precip will diminish...but enough forcing along front itself along
with moist airmass in place... chance for rain and thunder will
continue across north Ga.

Wednesday...A few showers will persist along the front as it
continues to push slowly across the state. Not seeing enough
instability to carry thunder on Wednesday. The front will stall near
metro ATL and areas west and east of the city by Wednesday evening.
Temps will continue well above normal. With weak sfc high pushing
into north counties behind the front on Wed...kept highs a touch
cooler in the low-mid 60s. Areas near and south of the front will
see highs in the lower-upper 70s.


LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Unsettled weather still on tap for the long term portion of the
forecast. Fast flow will dominate aloft, so expect several systems
to impact the area through the end of the week into early next week.

An old frontal boundary will begin pushing back northward as a warm
front Wednesday night into Thursday as a low pressure system moves
into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Pops will be on the
increase during the day Thursday as the boundary pushes north and
the low pressure system/front approaches from the west. Models are
progging some minimal instability with this system, so thunder still
looks appropriate. The front briefly settles across southern
GA/northern FL before beginning to push back north late on Saturday
ahead of the next low pressure/frontal system.

Copious moisture is expected ahead of the late weekend/early next
week system. Pops remain high. The parent low with this system
rapidly moves east from the center of the country to the TN valley
by early Sunday, dragging a frontal boundary through the CWFA later
Sunday/early Monday. This is a potent system...strong mid level
energy aloft will give support for widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Currently, good shear and very steep lapse rates are
progged, so there is good potential for severe thunderstorms. Now,
this is still Day 5/Day 6, so the forecast could change, stay tuned!



18Z Update...
Increasing clouds expected as rain moves into NW GA this
afternoon. VFR conditions through the evening will degrade to IFR
overnight. Patchy LIFR is possible, particularly across central
GA. Any shower and thunderstorm activity should stay north of TAF
sites through tonight, with isolated shower activity spreading
into central GA early Wednesday. Chances low enough not to include
in the TAF at this time. Winds have shifted to the west and are
expected to shift to the NW through the TAF period. Speeds will be
8-12kt with gusts to 20-22kt this afternoon, then diminish to 8kt
or less overnight, and remain 5-10kt Wednesday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on shower chances at KATL.
Medium on ceilings and visibilities 02-16z.
High confidence on all other elements.



Athens          71  58  69  50 /  10  20  20  20
Atlanta         71  58  66  53 /  20  20  20  20
Blairsville     64  52  60  45 /  50  60  30  40
Cartersville    70  57  64  50 /  30  40  20  40
Columbus        75  59  72  56 /  10  20  20  20
Gainesville     68  57  65  50 /  20  40  20  20
Macon           75  58  73  54 /  10  10  20  10
Rome            70  56  63  50 /  40  50  20  40
Peachtree City  72  58  68  52 /  10  20  20  20
Vidalia         77  59  75  57 /   5  10  10  10




LONG TERM....Baker
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