Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KFFC 221127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE CWA WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTH GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET DAY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT THE RISK OF RAIN WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

17

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GA TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
NEAR CALM THROUGH THE FORECAST. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER
09Z TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND PRECIP TIMING
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  71  91  71 /  60  50  30  30
ATLANTA         84  72  88  72 /  50  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     81  67  84  66 /  60  50  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    84  69  88  70 /  60  50  40  40
COLUMBUS        85  72  92  73 /  50  40  30  20
GAINESVILLE     83  71  86  71 /  60  50  40  30
MACON           85  70  91  72 /  50  40  30  20
ROME            85  70  89  71 /  60  50  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  89  70 /  50  40  30  20
VIDALIA         90  73  94  74 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.