Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 240755
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
355 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
High pressure and dry conditions will persist across the CWFA for
the short term period. Max temps will also range between 5 to 7
degrees above normal for the next two days.
High pressure will remain overhead today and tonight, but begin to
shift offshore by late Wednesday. Several little perturbations in
the mid level flow are progged to move through...but should only
lend to some increased cloudiness at times. The hi-res models do
produce a few showers in the far ne mountains on Wednesday, but pops
remain too small to mention at this time.
.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
General trends through the extended forecast period remain
relatively unchanged. Models still show a rather indistinct pattern
for this region. Overall...large-scale upper-level pattern continues
fairly static with the larger wavelength troughiness stuck across
the rockies and high plains and broad/weak ridging over the east.
Surface ridge shifts far enough east by Thursday for isolated to
scattered convection across the north. By the weekend...both the GFS
and ECMWF showing some manner of easterly wave moving in from the
western Atlantic and flirting with the region. This should be enough
to spread slight chance/chance POPs across the entire forecast area.
Both also linger some type of weak low over the region through early
next week which should keep a diurnally skewed scattered convection
pattern in place through the end of the forecast period as well.
Instability never forecast to be too impressive and no strong
forcing indicated so chances for strong to severe thunderstorms
appear to remain minimal through the period.
Warm and dry conditions will persist through Tuesday. Temperatures
are expected 5 to 7 degrees above normal for the next two days. RH
values will range from about 25% to 30% today. Slightly higher
values are progged for Tuesday as winds shift more to the south and
bring a bit of low level moisture northward from the Gulf. With high
pressure overhead, winds will be pretty light out of the west with
speeds aob 6-7kt in most locales. Min Fuel Moisture values bottomed
out in the 4% to 7% range yesterday afternoon...pretty dry for this
time of year. Even with the dry fuels, the RH values and wind values
do not meet Fire Danger Statement criteria. However, have had to do
quite a bit of massaging of the dewpoints. Models are really not
handling the excellent mixing down of dry air in the afternoons very
well. So, if dewpoints mix out lower than expected this afternoon,
areas south of a Columbus to Macon line will have to be re-evaluated
for a Fire Danger Statement.
VFR conditions expected for the entire TAF period. Some altocu
showing up on the IR imagery this morning. Expect diurnal cu to
develop this afternoon. Main forecast issue will be the winds.
Speeds will be very light overnight...and wind direction may
switch over to the east/northeast for a few hours. However, when
mixing starts up during the mid/late morning the flow is expected
to go back to the west side.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
high confidence all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 86 61 88 63 / 0 0 5 5
Atlanta 85 64 86 66 / 0 0 5 5
Blairsville 81 55 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
Cartersville 86 60 88 63 / 0 0 10 5
Columbus 88 63 88 66 / 0 0 5 5
Gainesville 84 62 85 64 / 0 0 10 5
Macon 88 61 88 63 / 0 0 5 5
Rome 87 58 89 62 / 0 0 10 5
Peachtree City 86 59 86 62 / 0 0 5 5
Vidalia 87 64 88 65 / 0 0 5 5