Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 250152
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
852 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018



.UPDATE...
Slow moving frontal boundary is currently moving through the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. The widespread precip is along and west
of the actual boundary. A few showers have developed in the moist,
southerly flow across central/northern AL. Do think isold/sct shra
will continue to be possible across far NW Ga overnight. QPF
values should be very light. Precip should become more widespread
during the first part of Sunday as the front draws closer. The
boundary should stall across portions of the CWFA.

Have tweaked pops a bit to reflect current conditions. Have also
taken a "blend" of the hi-res reflectivity models for the pops
overnight and very early Sunday morning.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 630 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 222 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Another likely record breaking warm day on tap this afternoon with
many locations already breaching the 80 mark as of the writing of
this discussion. Low end pops on track for a few showers or isolated
thunderstorm for mainly the far north this afternoon, then trending
the approach of a more widespread line of convection with a good hi-
res consensus impinging upon far NW GA by about 10-12z tomorrow
morning and then spreading southeastward through the day. Thinking
best chance for any strong to isolated severe would be early
tomorrow morning for the far NW with the leading edge ahead of less
progressive front. SPC updated its Day 2 outlook to have a Marginal
Risk spread more across west central and north GA (mainly north of a
line from Columbus to Atlanta to the NE mtns). Thinking this is
reasonable given the shear profile maximums, though the thermal
profiles are not very impressive CAPE-wise. Probably will have a few
bowing segments along the leading edge that could have enhanced
winds or perhaps a brief spin-up tornado. Otherwise the instability
is a bit greater for the afternoon in central GA but the shear
lacks. May be more garden variety thunder in this area and then
scattered showers continuing across north GA.

Models have continued to trend toward another wave of enhanced
moisture advecting in from the SW along the stalling boundary for
Sunday night. Have ramped up some more categorical pops for the
northern majority of the area accordingly, which may actually dump
higher QPF than the first wave Sunday.

Baker

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

No big changes for the long term. First short wave exiting the
forecast area Monday night with a brief break Tuesday. Models on
track for another round of short waves to affect the area Tuesday
night into early Friday. High pressure eventually building across
the state for Saturday. The previous discussion is included below.

41

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018/

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/... A slow moving cold
front is forecast to be moving across the area Sunday night into
Monday with a moist SW upper flow associated. Rain chances will be
high across much of the area before diminishing Monday and ending
for most of the area By Monday night. There will be a period of
heavy rain potential later Sunday night and early Monday and we
will continue to monitor for flooding potential. Instability is
limited during this period so there is only a slight chance for
thunderstorms.

There will be a lull in the rain chances Monday night and Tuesday
before the next round.

The GFS and European models are rather consistent with deep
moisture returning with overrunning southerly flow kicking in
Tuesday night and for the most part, continuing Wednesday.
The GFS and the European models differ with the timing of the
next cold front with the GFS much fast bringing the front across
the area on Thursday and the European Thursday night as a well
define surface low develops along the front on the European model.
At this time, instability looks to be limited. Rain chances look
to end quickly late Thursday or Thursday night with a dry Friday
expected.

N and portions of central GA will experience the greatest rainfall
into Monday and n GA will be the target of the greatest rainfall
for the later week event.

Temperatures will continue above normal this long term period.

BDL

CLIMATE...

Records for 02-24

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      81 1930     37 1947     58 1944     19 1989
                                                    1967
                                                    1947
   KATL      78 2017     35 1907     64 1890     17 1989
                                                    1947
   KCSG      81 1930     38 1901     61 1979     21 1989
   KMCN      81 2017     36 1901     62 1961     18 1901

Records for 02-25

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      80 1930     34 1974     59 1992      8 1967
                            1967
   KATL      78 1996     26 1894     62 1890      9 1967
   KCSG      82 1930     36 1967     65 2001     17 1967
   KMCN      82 1930     35 1914     62 1918     14 1967

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Models are split on the development of low clouds tonight at ATL.
Do think that some lower MVFR clouds will be around, just not
confident that the IFR/LIFR the shorter term hi-res models are
progging will develop. A frontal boundary will sag southward
during the day tomorrow and stall over the area for the remainder
of the TAF period. Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms
are possible for much of the day. Have tried to pick the most
likely times for the reduced vsbys in shra/tsra.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  69  55  66 /  20  80  90  70
Atlanta         63  68  55  67 /  20  80  90  60
Blairsville     59  62  49  63 /  30  90  80  50
Cartersville    64  66  52  65 /  30  90  90  30
Columbus        65  75  60  72 /  20  70  80  80
Gainesville     62  66  53  65 /  20  80  90  60
Macon           62  76  60  71 /  10  70  70  80
Rome            64  66  51  67 /  40  90  90  30
Peachtree City  63  69  55  67 /  20  80  90  60
Vidalia         60  83  62  76 /  10  30  40  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...NListemaa



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