Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 251926
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
326 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Current radar loop shows some isolated showers across
N GA as drier air has filtered into south and central portions of
the state. The surface to mid level ridge continues to dominate the
weather pattern across the southeast as it is helping to keep the
showers to a minimum. The precipitation across the area is expected
to diminish quickly after sunset. The high pressure ridge is
expected to drift a bit northward Fri...but storm chances will still
be greatest across N GA. Have increased POPs a bit for Fri as well
as better instability is forecast across N GA Fri afternoon. Temps
are expected to be in the lower to mid 90s fri afternoon with night
time lows mainly near 70.
.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Very minor adjustments made to fcst period pops/weather...
especially next week given the high uncertainty and run-to-run inconsistency
with the evolution of tropical low. Otherwise refreshed rest of fcst
elements given latest blend of guidance which does not appear to
deviate much from the previous overnight package. Previous
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016/
LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
Long range models are showing fairly good agreement at least into
early next week... with an upper ridge currently anchored over
the deep south drifting eastward and settling along the mid
Atlantic Coast by Saturday-Sunday. There the GFS and ECMWF begin
to weaken the ridge influence as a low pressure system approaches
south Florida by Sunday. Although the GFS solution is much weaker
with this surface low... both models show fairly good agreement
with timing and position... taking the low across far south
Florida Sunday-Monday... then northward along the west Florida
coast on Monday and Tuesday. At this time... both models are
showing some form of this surface low pushing inland somewhere
between Apalachicola and Tampa Florida either late Tuesday or
early Wednesday. The ECMWF is the stronger and slightly faster
solution... showing a deep low pressure system then tracking
northeastward across south Georgia on Wednesday and across the
Carolinas on Thursday. The GFS just meanders a much weaker surface
low over far north Florida and south Georgia on Wednesday and
Thursday. Either way... confidence is increasing that at least
parts of south Florida could be impacted by a tropical low by late
this weekend... then much uncertainty exist beyond Sunday.
Therefore... all interest across the deep south are strongly
encouraged to continue closely monitoring the tropics over the
next several days.
No major aviation concerns this TAF period. VFR ceilings with no
restrictions to VSBYs expected to continue. Winds are out of the
NW turning to the NE this afternoon winds will go over to the east
through Fri afternoon. wind speeds expected to stay 10kt or less.
Seeing some isolated showers over N GA this afternoon buy not
expecting them to affect the TAF sites. With increased
precipitation coverage expected Fri have put in a PROB30 for Fri
afternoon in the ATL TAF.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 72 93 73 93 / 5 20 10 10
Atlanta 74 93 74 92 / 5 20 10 10
Blairsville 67 88 68 87 / 20 50 30 30
Cartersville 71 92 72 92 / 10 40 20 20
Columbus 72 94 73 93 / 5 5 5 10
Gainesville 73 91 73 90 / 10 30 20 20
Macon 69 95 71 94 / 0 5 5 10
Rome 71 93 72 93 / 10 50 30 20
Peachtree City 69 93 70 92 / 5 20 10 10
Vidalia 71 95 71 94 / 5 5 5 10