Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 020300
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATE NECESSARY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS. OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH MENTION OF EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. 00 UTC FWD RAOB SHOWS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH AROUND 8-9 KFT. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
S/W TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE PARKED TO THE
WEST. WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL ASCENT
SHOULD OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO RESULT IN CLOUD COVER
AND A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY EXIST BENEATH ANY VIRGA...BUT WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. INSTABILITY ALOFT APPEARS
MEAGER PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO.

UPDATED ZONES AND OTHER ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

BAIN


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS...VFR THROUGHOUT.

DESPITE AN UNSEASONABLY DRY POSTFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER...THE MID-
LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST. A BROKEN AC/AS DECK WILL PREVAIL...THE
INSTABILITY WITHIN WHICH WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS. STILL THINK THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS FAR TOO LOW TO
MENTION. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE VIRGA...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME TURBULENCE FL050-150.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 12KTS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER AS THE POSTFRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
EASTWARD.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE 50S OVER MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...PROVIDING US A FIRST-HAND
ACCOUNT ON WHY THE DRY HEAT IS BETTER THAN OUR USUAL HIGH HUMIDITY
HEAT. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST JUST WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS ARE GRADUALLY
DRYING OUT IN THIS REGION TOO. THIS IS LOWERING INSTABILITY
VALUES...SO THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY SATURATED WHICH MEANS SOME MEAGER AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX
CURRENTLY NEAR VERNON...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LIFT GENERATED BY
THIS FEATURE IN THE PRESENCE OF THE ELEVATED MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WARRANTS KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED IN THE
NW ZONES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE DFW METROPLEX SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MORE
VIRGA THAN ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

OTHERWISE ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS
DUE TO THE DRIER AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER SOME MID LEVEL MORNING
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED.
HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN REMAIN UNUSUALLY LOW...MAKING IT FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WOULD INDICATE AT FIRST
GLANCE. UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST NEXT WEEK...BUT IT WILL REMAIN KIND OF FLAT AND SQUASHED BY
THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS MEANS THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE OVERLY PROMINENT...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY STRAY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RED RIVER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE THE TAIL END OF
SHORTWAVE FORCING MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTION.
REGARDLESS...THIS CHANCE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE WORDED
FORECAST AT THIS TIME SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH 5-10
PERCENT POPS. EVEN THOUGH SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG
ALOFT WITH THE WEAKER UPPER HIGH...THERE WILL BE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THAN WHAT WE SAW DURING THE LAST TWO
WEEKS...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE 97 TO 103 RANGE OVER THE
CWA.

BY NEXT SATURDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AND PROVIDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER THAT...SO HOT AND DRY LOOKS TO BE THE RULE WELL
INTO MID AUGUST.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  98  77  99  79 /   5  10   5   5   0
WACO, TX              69  98  73  99  76 /   5   5   0   5   0
PARIS, TX             69  97  71  98  74 /   0   5   0   5   0
DENTON, TX            72  98  71  99  76 /  10  10   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          70  97  70  98  76 /   5  10   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            77  99  78 100  80 /   5  10   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           70  98  72  98  75 /   0   5   0   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         71  99  74  99  76 /   0   5   0   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            69  98  71  99  74 /   5   5   0   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  96  72  98  73 /  20  20  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/15



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