Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 301544
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1044 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The MCS that moved across North Texas overnight has moved east and
dissipated while the MCS that moved across Central Texas continues
to head southeast into the Coastal Bend region. Both of these
systems have stabilized the airmass over the region and PoPs for
the remainder of the day will be just 10-20 percent. The 20 PoPs
will be over the southeast zones, where a pocket of untapped
instability remains this morning, and also across the western
zones where several hours of afternoon sunshine are expected. In
these areas a few showers or storms may pop up with heating, but
without a lot of flow, they should remain stationary and generally
disorganized. Elsewhere, the mid and high clouds will gradually
clear, but once temps warm into the 80s some cumulus should
develop. Have adjusted the sky cover forecast and lowered high
temps a few degrees in some areas as a result.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 647 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
The complex of showers and thunderstorms that moved into the
Metroplex around 06z has weakened and moved to the east of a
K0F2-KF46-KINJ-KMKN line as of 11z. Expect mostly VFR conditions
to prevail today through 08-09z Tuesday with some MVFR ceilings
expected to move in before daybreak Tuesday. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible late afternoon into this evening but the
chances are way too low to include in the TAFs. At this time the
confidence that any storms that form out in West Texas this
afternoon will reach the I-35 corridor before 12z Tuesday is very
low so no VCTS or TSRA is mentioned in the 06z-12z period of the
forecast. Gusty south winds (up to around 30 knots) at 10z started
to shift to the north at around 10 knots as a weak boundary moved
through. These winds should go variable around 13z and come back
around to the south around 14z.

The rain will end at Waco 12-13z. Thus have started them off
with 6sm -RA but end the rain the next hour. Have left a tempo
BKN025 for the 13-15z period; otherwise, expect VFR conditions
through 09z Tuesday when some MVFR stratus is expected. Gusty
south winds up to around 30 knots at TAF issuance time, are
expected to decrease to 10-12 knots by 14z. As with the Metroplex
TAF sites, isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon into
this evening, but chances are not high enough to include at this
time.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    88  70  85  69  82 /  10  20  40  60  70
Waco                88  67  85  67  82 /  10  20  40  50  70
Paris               86  68  84  67  79 /  20  30  20  50  70
Denton              88  68  84  66  80 /  10  30  40  70  70
McKinney            87  68  85  67  81 /  10  20  30  60  70
Dallas              88  71  85  69  82 /  10  20  30  60  70
Terrell             87  68  85  68  82 /  10  20  30  50  70
Corsicana           86  69  86  69  81 /  10  20  30  50  70
Temple              84  67  83  67  81 /  20  20  40  50  70
Mineral Wells       87  68  82  65  79 /  20  30  50  70  70

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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