Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 250420
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1120 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY
PARKED OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH ONLY INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
A TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION. LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S...AND
UPPER 40S IN SOME OUTLYING AREAS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
UPDATE REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON AREA
RADARS EXTENDING FROM NEAR KILLEEN TO CORSICANA AND NORTHEAST TO
PARIS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND AMDAR
SOUNDING DATA INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL
LIKELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT.

TOMORROW WILL BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR
MOST PEOPLE BUT SEVERAL SUBTLE TRANSITIONS WILL BE TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE WEEKEND INCLUDING THE
THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...DRIER AIR BEHIND TODAYS FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REESTABLISH
ITSELF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING. RICH
GULF MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS SCOURED OUT BEHIND TODAYS FRONT SO
GETTING IT BACK INTO NORTH TEXAS PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NO
PROBLEM GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AXIS OF HIGH 850MB THETA-E AIR WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD VIA THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AS STRONGER UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO
WEST TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING A PLUME OF 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME
A SHARPENING DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SOUTHWARD TOWARD ABILENE AND TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. AN AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL SET UP JUST EAST OF
THE DRYLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL LAG
BEHIND A BIT ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP AND
ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INITIATION
SHOULD BE BETWEEN 22-00Z JUST WEST OF OUR CWA. GIVEN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND HIGH INSTABILITY...THESE
STORMS WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE POSING A SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. AS THE EARLY EVENING GOES ON
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SO WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY JUST AFTER 00Z WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RIGHT NEAR SUNSET UNTIL ABOUT 10PM
SATURDAY...AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 55KTS BY 3Z. THIS STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ENHANCES THE 0-3KM HODOGRAPH INTO A STRONGLY CURVED
CLOCKWISE SHAPE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN OUR CWA. THIS WOULD HELP KEEP SUPERCELLS
SURFACE BASED BY KEEPING A STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GOING.
IN ADDITION THIS WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT
ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST COUNTIES INTO LATE SATURDAY EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT AS STORMS CONTINUE EAST THEY WILL ENCOUNTER STRONGER
CAPPING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NEARLY ELIMINATING THE TORNADO THREAT. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME
WHETHER A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL PERSIST VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...ASSUMING THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ENCOUNTER
INCREASING INHIBITION AND DIE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE IN STORE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. WITH THE UPPER LOW RAPIDLY EJECTING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST RATHER QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS HAD A
TENDENCY TO MIX THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TOO QUICKLY. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF HANDLING OF THE DRYLINE...AND THINK IT WILL
BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR I-35 BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LEAVE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW. SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM DALLAS EASTWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY TO SUNDAYS FORECAST...BUT THE MAIN GIST OF THINGS
FOR SUNDAY IS...WHEREVER THE DRYLINE IS LOCATED...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A GOOD BET EAST OF THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO GET CUT OFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEPING NORTH TEXAS IN A DRIER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  85  64  85  69 /   0   0   5   5  40
WACO, TX              52  85  61  85  69 /   5   0   5   5  40
PARIS, TX             52  81  56  85  68 /  10   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            51  84  61  84  68 /   0   0   5   5  50
MCKINNEY, TX          50  83  59  84  68 /   0   0   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            57  86  64  86  70 /   0   0   5   5  40
TERRELL, TX           53  83  59  84  69 /   5   0   5   5  30
CORSICANA, TX         56  84  62  85  69 /   5   0   5   5  30
TEMPLE, TX            54  87  63  86  69 /   5   0   5   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  87  61  87  66 /   0   0   5   5  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/92





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