Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 191105
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
505 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

The forecast turns a little more interesting today/tonight as an
upper trough over the Rockies emerges onto the central plains.
Southerly flow will be on the increase today, drawing moisture north
into our region and dewpoints are progged to reach the 40s to
possibly the low 50s which are higher than what we normally see for
maximum temperatures this time of year. With the increase in
moisture, low cloud cover is expected to develop to our south and
spread north toward our Kansas counties early this morning.
Current observations indicate visibilities beginning to drop
across portions of eastern Kansas where surface dewpoints are in
the low/mid 40s and where skies are clear. High cloud cover across
our area may limit some of these lower visibilities until we see
better moisture toward daybreak and will monitor the
visibility/fog trends.

As we head through the day, high cloud cover will be prevalent with
patchy low cloud cover in our southern zones. The airmass remains
very mild and warmer than Saturday however cloud cover will limit
insolation/heating but we will also see better mixing as the surface
gradient tightens with breezy conditions developing with south wind
gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Temperatures are tricky due to clouds but
with the warm start to the day have ranged highs from 65 to 70
degrees which are near but looking just shy of record highs. The
current record high for February 19th for KGRI is 72 degrees set
in 1930 and the record for KHSI is 70 degrees set in 1996 and
1948.

Tonight low cloud cover surges north and fills in ahead of the upper
trough moving east of the high plains. The low level jet strengthens
and lift increases with the approaching system but the better focus
of the lift quickly orients toward our eastern zones and east into
eastern Neb/KS on the nose of the low level jet. Model forecast
soundings indicate the potential for drizzle, but with presence of
instability will keep things simple with shower/isolated thunder for
weather type. Although winds will will remain fairly steady
overnight, would not be surprised to see marginally reduced
visibilities in fog with the low level moisture in place.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

An upper level wave will continue to move through the area on Monday
and a weak surface front will continue to move through the area. The
models have a few differences in the timing of the wave and
resultant precipitation. The NAM is a little slower with some
lingering precipitation in the northeast while the GFS and ECMWF are
faster and are dry during the day Monday. Now have dry conditions on
Monday. The temperatures will be mild in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Monday night into Tuesday there will be warm advection and winds
will turn to the southwest. There will be down slope winds and the
850mb temperatures are around 12 deg C. Forecast high temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s are warmer than the record highs for
Tuesday. A weak cold front will move through the area Tuesday night
and temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday.

By Wednesday night a weak upper level wave will start to affect the
area. Initially, there will be some light precipitation in the far
north late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With cold enough
temperatures there could be some rain and snow mixed in. On
Thursday, the upper low moves into the area and rain spreads across
the area during the afternoon. As the low moves through the area,
the colder air moves in behind the low. Rain will gradually mix with
and change to snow during the night time hours. The cold air
continues to keep the precipitation as snow during the morning and
as the precipitation comes to an end during the day on Monday, there
could be some rain mixed in across the south.

Friday night will be cooler again as a cold high pressure settles
into the area. On Saturday, the surface high moves to the east and
there is some warm advection with temperatures warming up again.
There is another weak wave that moves through the area with a little
rain or snow possible in the northern part of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

So far early this morning fog and reduced visibilities remain well
south of the terminals across central and southern Kansas. As
moisture continues to work north there is an outside chance for a
visibility restriction for a few hours this morning. Look for
southerly winds to be on the increase today with wind gusts of 25
to 30kts. Low cloud cover will become more prevalent tonight in
presence of better low level moisture and ahead of an approaching
upper level trough. There is a chance for a rain shower or
isolated thunderstorm, or possibly even drizzle. A cig category in
IFR or LIFR cannot be ruled out.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 301 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Record high temperatures for today (February 19th):

Grand Island: 72 degrees set in 1930
Hastings: 70 degrees set in 1996 and 1948

Tuesday high temperatures will be quite warm. Old record
temperatures are in jeopardy. Current records:

Grand Island         75 degrees        set in 1995
Hastings             73 degrees        set in 1995

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Fay
CLIMATE...JCB



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