Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1155 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Issued at 1155 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

SPS was issued for widespread wind gusts of 45-55 mph until 3 PM.

Highest gust we`ve seen thus far is 55 mph at ODX at 1049 AM.

Records have been broken at GRI and HSI. See RER`s for details.

Hunch at 847 AM (see below) was right. Mixing into very warm
inversion has resulted in warmer temps. So highs were raised for
today. We`re seeing low 80s in N-cntrl KS!

UPDATE Issued at 847 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Examination of 12Z soundings from LBF/UNR along with the unusually
warm start this AM have this fcstr believing records will be
threatened or broken today. High temps will be within 2-3F.

13Z consensus of short-term models is indicating our fcst may not
be warm enough (by 2F). It`s fcstg 71 at GRI and 73 at HSI.

This is not a slam dunk given the weak cool front will be moving
thru. We are already fcstg anomalous warmth (highs 20-25F above
normal). So current plan is to let the fcst ride...but don`t be
surprised if records are tied or broken again today.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Impressively mild late November night across not only across the
forecast area but the entire Central and Northern Plains.
Temperatures in south central Nebraska and north central Kansas
range from 43 to 54 degrees, with almost all reporting sites
still above the climatological normal high temperature for this
time of year.

Though today is another warm one, there are changes. A surface
cold front is showing itself now moving into eastern Montana and
western North Dakota. This front will push across the forecast
area late this morning and early this afternoon. Favorable
downsloping westerly flow along with already warm temperatures
will push temperatures quickly into the 60s. Mixing with the
frontal passage could spike temperatures up a notch from current
forecast before cold advection starts leveling things off in the
afternoon. Current is for a range of temperatures from the upper
60s to middle 70s. Record high temperatures 72 degrees for both
Grand Island and Hastings today, both of which are in reach though
the forecast is just shy of those temperatures. Those westerly
winds will give way to northwest winds gusting to around 35 mph
this afternoon in the wake of the cold front. Fortunately, winds
should drop off quickly early this evening. Quite a bit colder
tonight with clearing skies and light winds.

Couple other items to note...some of the short term models are
trying to spread some mid-cloud sprinkles across northwest and
near north central Kansas late this afternoon. This is due to
the upper level trough passage but also a nosing strong H250
jet into that area. Opted for a cloud increase for now thinking
dry air will squelch even the the sprinkle chance. Also, near
critical fire concerns due to winds and sub-25% relative humidity
values are possible across parts of north central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

First, both Saturday and Sunday look really, really good
weatherwise. One may be tempted to focus on the "cooler"
temperatures, but we should focus on the light winds both
days (and sunshine) and high temperatures 10+ degrees above
normal Saturday (50s) around 20 degrees above normal Saturday
(60s). Enjoy them both.

That leads into Monday, which could be one of the last really
warm days in awhile. H85 temperatures projected to be warmer
than Thanksgiving Day and with plenty of sunshine. Winds will
not be downsloping as much, but decent mixing with increasing
south/southwest winds will help push temperatures back into
the upper 60s and middle 70s. Record high temperatures of 73
and 71 for Grand Island and Hastings could be in jeopardy again
as the area begins the day in the center of an upper level short
wave ridge access.

The next cold front times out to move through the area roughly
around Monday night. Within about 24 hours of that frontal passage,
the forecast could get more interesting. European model has been
sliding a closed low across the Central Plains and through the
forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS is further
south but has sort of a similar trend. Small chances for rain or a
rain/snow mix were added to the forecast for Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Temperatures look marginal for accumulating
snowfall although snow is possible. Still quite a bit of time and
several forecast iterations before this impacts the area but its
one worth watching and hoping for some moisture to settle the
dust in many areas. If the precipitation materializes,
temperatures will likely have to come down Wednesday across
the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Significant Wx: NW wind gusts to near 45 kts until 20Z.

This Afternoon: VFR with no clds at or below (AOB) 10K ft. NW
winds 30-35 kts with gusts to near 45 kts early...then shifting N
and decreasing 20-30G35 kts. Confidence: High

Tonight: VFR with no clds AOB 10K ft. Winds rapidly diminish to
less than 10 kts and remain NW. Confidence: High

Sat thru 18Z: VFR with no clds AOB 10K ft. Light WNW winds under
10 kts. Confidence: High




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