Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 300547

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1247 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Radar has widespread precipitation across much of the forecast
area this afternoon. The far northwest is the area with the least,
and the observations have had some light precipitation in that
area. The southeast portion of the area is starting to look more
showery. Temperatures have been very steady today.

The upper low responsible for the precipitation has been moving
through Kansas today and will continue through the night. As the
low moves further to the east, the precipitation should become a
little more spotty during the evening. Through the afternoon and
into the evening hours, there is a little MUCAPE of less than 200
J/KG. This could bring more showery precipitation as well as an
isolated lightning strike. Do now expect there to be much. Later
tonight the precipitation should gradually come to an end from
west to east. On the back side of the precipitation, as it is
coming to an end, there could be cool enough temperatures that
there could be a little snow mixed in with the rain, but it should
be just before it comes to an end. By Thursday, the precipitation
should move out of the forecast area. There is a surface high
that will build into the area Thursday afternoon. Clouds should
break up some, but not completely clear out.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Thursday night there is an upper level ridge and surface high
that move through the area. Skies will remain mostly cloudy
through the night. By Friday, the upper level ridge and surface
high move to the east.

The next upper level low will start to affect the area Friday night.
Precipitation should start to move into the area during the evening
and spread across the area during the overnight hours. Temperatures
in the north and west during the overnight hours could allow for
some rain and snow mix. The upper low slowly moves to the east and
there will be a chance for rain Saturday and into Saturday night
before coming to an end on Sunday morning.

There is a break Sunday afternoon through Monday before the next
upper low starts to affect the area. This low is a little further to
the north and the better chances for precipitation will be in the
northern part of the forecast area. The models have a few
differences in timing and location of the upper low, so will have to
keep watching this system to see what it does.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Significant Wx: IFR conds until roughly 17Z.

Overnight: IFR CIGs. VSBYs will improve once the -RA ends. Radar
has shown a significant decrease in coverage and intensity during
the past cpl hrs. N winds around 15 kts with occasionally gusts up
to 24 kts. Confidence: High

Thu: IFR CIGs to start will gradually lift to MVFR in the 17Z-
20Z timeframe. CIGs will peak 020-025 in the late afternoon. N
winds diminishing to 8-14 kts. Confidence: High

Thu Eve: MVFR CIGs begin to lower. Winds become lgt from the NE
under 10 kts. Confidence: High




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