Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 072010
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL 88D`S SHOW AN MCV SPINNING OVER
SW OK AND STARTING TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST. THE FRONT THAT SWEPT
THROUGH LAST EVENING IS NOW SITUATED FROM NORTHERN AR INTO
SOUTHERN OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SW OK IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT TRACKING OVER SE KS BY EARLY WED MORNING. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE 900-800MB LAYER WILL RAMP UP JUST EAST OF THE
UPPER FEATURE TONIGHT FOCUSING OVER EASTERN OK/SE KS. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2" WOULD EXPECTED VERY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AS WOULD
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOOD WARNINGS TONIGHT EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE WITH WICHITA BEING ON THE NW FRINGES OF THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. FOR WED MORNING THE MCV WILL BE APPROACHING
THE OZARK REGION AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST. WE
SHOULD SEE THE RAINFALL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH ONLY NORTHEAST FRINGES SEEING RAINFALL BY THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS NW KS/SW NEBRASKA WED NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OVER SW KS WITH THIS AREA OF
LIFT SPREADING EAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SO MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH
WED AND THU WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE TREND OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STARTING FRIDAY
WILL BE FOR UPPER RIDGING TO SLOWLY BUILD-IN. BY SAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT WEST ON SUN INTO MON. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS STARTING FRI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 AT THE CENTURY MARK BY SUN AND
REMAINING FOR MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ICT
AND CNU TERMINALS DURING THE DAY JUST NORTH OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. POST-
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL AFFECT HUT...ICT...AND CNU TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...AND MAY LIFT SOME...BUT LINGER AT CNU THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SURGE OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE ICT AND
ESPECIALLY CNU TERMINALS.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  61  75  63 /  60  50  30  40
HUTCHINSON      76  59  78  61 /  50  30  20  40
NEWTON          74  60  76  60 /  60  50  30  30
ELDORADO        72  61  75  60 /  60  60  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  62  76  63 /  60  70  30  40
RUSSELL         79  55  80  61 /   0  10  10  50
GREAT BEND      78  56  80  61 /  10  10  10  50
SALINA          78  58  78  60 /  10  20  20  30
MCPHERSON       77  59  78  60 /  50  30  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     73  64  74  63 /  50  90  70  30
CHANUTE         71  63  73  60 /  60  90  70  30
IOLA            72  62  73  58 /  60  80  70  30
PARSONS-KPPF    71  64  73  62 /  50  90  70  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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