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000
FXUS63 KICT 011143
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
543 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT. THIS WINTRY
PRECIP ELONGATED ALONG THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH
DAWN...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A DUSTING TO AROUND ONE-HALF
INCH SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE NORTH OF
GREATER WICHITA. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY ALSO OCCUR
INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA...WITH MAINLY LINGERING
FLURRIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WHICH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY AREAL
OUTLINE LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH SOME LOCALES MAY EXCEED
CRITERIA A COUPLE HOURS EARLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON MONDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER READINGS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MEDIUM RANGE PROGNOSTICS STILL SUPPORT POLAR AIR SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
CHANCES FOR A LIGHT PRECIP/SNOW EVENT. TRANSIENT LIFT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE
COLD AIR WILL HOLD SWAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT
AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOW A MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURE REGIME TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR
PREVAILING BY 15Z AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  11  35  24 /  50   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31   8  35  23 /  30   0   0   0
NEWTON          33   9  34  23 /  50  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  10  34  23 /  50  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  11  35  24 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         26   8  39  24 /  20   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27   9  39  25 /  20   0   0   0
SALINA          29   7  35  23 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       30   7  34  23 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  13  33  23 /  60  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  11  32  22 /  60  10   0   0
IOLA            39  11  31  22 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  11  33  23 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$