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000
FXUS63 KICT 092336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MUCH WARMER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PREVAILING ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL SOAR AS
PREMIUM DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY. THIS WAVE WILL MERGE WITH A SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL PUSH A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH FALLING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. IN ADDITION NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD EASILY SURPASS WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A WIND
ADVISORY LIKELY BEING NEEDED. STILL SEEING A SIGNAL BY THE MODELS FOR
SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO A
POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL NOT BE ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO THE MAGNITUDE WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS SEASON. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL BUT CONDITIONS WILL FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE BRISK NORTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY-SATURDAY ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERMAL PROFILES SEEM
WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT INTO MON AS
OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING AND WARMING SOUTHWEST
WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LIKELY LONGER.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RACES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE REGION...HOWEVER EXTREME
FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 & 135.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    35  75  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      36  76  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          36  75  44  64 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        36  74  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  74  46  71 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         37  78  40  52 /   0   0   0  30
GREAT BEND      36  78  40  55 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          37  76  41  59 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       36  76  42  61 /   0   0   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     36  73  46  77 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         36  73  46  74 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            36  73  45  73 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    35  73  46  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$