Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 280451
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1151 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVEL FLOW TO REMAIN
BACKED WHICH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
MAY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS. AS YOU MOVE FURTHER WEST...A MORE DEEPLY MIXED PBL MAY
WOULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GIVEN TALL
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
KS AND NE TONIGHT AND ALTHOUGH THE MORE ROBUST LOW LVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/MID LVL WAA AND LLJ CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
KS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN DEEP MOIST CONVECTION REMAINS HIGHER GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF 1-7KM BULK SHEAR.
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...INCREASING CINH MAY PRECLUDE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS GRADUALLY WORKING EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST KS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSOLATION AND A
SUBTLE FROPA WILL KEEP HIGHS JUST BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 80S. WITH WEAKER CINH/SHEAR THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

A DRY POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD AS AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
FORECAST...WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL STILL BE VERY SLOW TO FULLY PUSH
OUT BY OF THE AREA...ONLY REACHING KSLN BY THE END OF THIS
FORECAST. MID CLOUDS WILL BE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  85  65  87 /  50  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  85  63  87 /  50  20  10   0
NEWTON          68  85  65  86 /  50  30  10   0
ELDORADO        67  86  65  85 /  40  30  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  86  66  88 /  40  30  20  10
RUSSELL         67  88  61  89 /  60  20  10   0
GREAT BEND      67  88  61  89 /  60  20  10   0
SALINA          70  87  62  87 /  60  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       69  85  63  86 /  50  20  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     65  87  66  88 /  20  20  40  10
CHANUTE         65  86  65  84 /  30  30  30  10
IOLA            65  85  65  84 /  30  30  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    65  86  65  87 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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