370
FXUS63 KICT 140520
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued chances for rain over southeast Kansas through mid-week.

- A slight warming trend to start the week, then a minor late-
  week cooldown.

- Best opportunities for rain areawide later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates a shortwave approaching
the Great Lakes while north/northwest flow aloft settles in over the
Northern and Central Plains. At the surface, a stationary front is
situated over the Southern Plains as light and variable winds have
been observed over Kansas.

PRECIPITATION:

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING - Shower and thunderstorm chances will
gradually continue to shift eastward throughout the evening and
overnight as the mid/upper shortwave slowly moves toward the Ohio
River Valley. Unlike the past several days where relatively-large
NCAPE values have allowed for stronger updrafts to overperform in
regards to hail potential, today`s model soundings suggest skinnier
parcel profiles in southeast Kansas. Therefore, despite CAPE > 2000
J/kg in south central and southeast Kansas, current thinking is that
the primary threat with activity lingering into the overnight will
be locally heavy rainfall.

MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY - Another weak shortwave is progged to track
over the Ozark Plateau Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Subtle
differences in mid-range model solutions may result in higher or
lower rain chances across southeast Kansas, with the GEFS/GEPS being
a bit more bullish in coverage than the EPS. Given this relative
uncertainty, decided to maintain isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast for the southeast corner into Monday evening. Better
forcing for precipitation will exist to our south and east heading
into Tuesday.

Models continue to highlight an upper shortwave arriving on the
Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday, which may help to push a frontal
boundary into the area. At this point, the best chances for
isolated/scattered showers and storms developing ahead of the
boundary appear over central and northeast Kansas.

THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY - Deterministic models move the
aforementioned frontal boundary southward further into the forecast
area Thursday before stalling. If this scenario is realized, this
would support continued rain chances through the end of the week
given a very moist airmass and plenty of instability for
thunderstorms.

TEMPERATURES:

A warming trend is expected to commence Monday and last through the
middle of the week, with high temperatures areawide in the low to
middle 90s by Wednesday. A cold front will temporarily keep highs
near 90 on Thursday before a return to the mid-90s heading into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.

There`s a slight chance for some shallow fog across portions of
southeast Kansas, and brief MVFR to IFR vis may occur in
localized spots. However, mostly clear skies are expected to
prevail through the TAF period area-wide.

Winds will continue to remain light and variable through much of
the TAF period. Though they could become more uniform out of the
south late this afternoon while remaining under 10 knots.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JC