Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 021736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROLL SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...
SUSTAINED BY LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION. NEAR TERM MODELS ALL
INDICATE CONVECTION WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
...FUELED BY MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND CONTINUED MOIST INFLUX.
AS SUCH...BROADBRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND EXPANDED THOSE EAST
OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVERTOPS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND TRAVERSES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE AXIS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT IN CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN 700MB TEMPERATURES...INTO THE
10C TO 14C RANGE BY 00 UTC. FORECASTING SOUNDINGS NOT TOO BULLISH
ON CAPPING INVERSION...SO CANNOT DISCOUNT ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...THOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY
WILL OCCUR FURTHER WEST ALONG PSEUDO WARM-FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH
FM NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...SUSTAINED BY MODEST LLJ AND THETAE
ADVECTION. CONSEQUENTLY...INCREASE CHANCES OF WIDELY SCATTERED
TSRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH IN THE COMING
DAYS...THOUGH UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SLIGHT WESTWARD BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. DECREASING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW ANY CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTHWARD...THEREFORE GRADUALLY INCREASE CHANCE
OF POPS ACROSS BULK OF THE CWA AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

DID NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND SUSTAINED
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY
RISE AT AND ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME AS SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA DESCENDS INTO EASTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL DESCEND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
GEFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING MORE WIDESPREAD
STORM CHANCES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE
OF NORMAL AS HEIGHTS DECREASE AND WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WITH
SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS
MOST LIKELY AT KRSL/KSLN/KHUT...WITH CHANCES LOWER AT KICT/KCNU.
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY MID MORNING WED AS WINDS/MIXING
INCREASES. SOME POTETIAL FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...PRIMARILY AT
KRSL/KSLN...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  66  85  68 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      84  66  87  69 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          81  65  84  67 /  30  10  10  20
ELDORADO        84  66  83  69 /  30  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  66  85  68 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         85  65  86  68 /  20  10  20  40
GREAT BEND      85  65  87  68 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          84  67  87  69 /  30  20  20  40
MCPHERSON       82  65  85  68 /  20  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     83  64  83  67 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         82  64  83  67 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            81  64  82  67 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    83  65  83  67 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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