Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 061521 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1021 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE 40S THIS MORNING, TEMPS ARE WARMING UP
NICELY AND ARE IN THE MID 60S AREA WIDE NOW. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR
THIS UPDATE. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS MATCH UP NICELY WITH THE FORECAST
GRIDS. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS TODAY WL BECOME NEAR CALM
TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY. /17/22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN OMEGA BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WAS AGAINST EASTERN AND WESTERN
CONUS MID-UPPER TROUGHS WITH ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER CLOSED LOWS
CENTERED OFF THE SW CA COAST AND NC COAST RESPECTIVELY. IT WAS
RATHER COOL PRIOR TO DAWN WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AR.

FOR THE PERIOD THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SPIN ABOUT
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE OMEGA RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT
THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. SO WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS AS WELL AS 40S AND 50S DEWPOINTS FOR THE PERIOD
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT. SO NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS EXPECTED. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT
TOWARD ALLBLEND GUIDANCE. WE WILL START WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S FOR TODAY THEN RISING TO MAINLY THE LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY
WITH BUILDING WARMER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EAST TO THE MIDDLE 50S NORTHWEST. IT WILL
BE A LITTLE MILDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S
SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST./17/

LONGTERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE CONUS SHOULD BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MIGRATING OUT OF THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS NEW ENGLAND LOW HAS OPENED UP
AND BEGUN TO SHEAR OUT. THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN HELD IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS TO FINALLY BEGIN MOVING
EAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY IN A SERIES OF LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FINALLY TAP INTO
SOME BETTER DEWPOINTS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER WHERE LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN BY
MONDAY MORNING.

GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE LAPSE
RATES INITIALLY ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...UPPER 20S VERTICAL TOTALS
MOVES IN LATE WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ALL THIS HINGES UPON THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVEMENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE GFS/ECMWF...OF WHICH
MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST COMING OUT OF THIS BLOCKING
PATTERN. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      75  49  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     76  55  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   77  50  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       75  53  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    75  56  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     75  53  81  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



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