Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 282059
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A MORE EXPANSIVE CU FIELD DEVELOPED TODAY GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 BUT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WAS ALMOST NIL AND
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINED WELL EAST IN CENTRAL AL. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE VERY GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RATHER LIGHT SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP. PW
VALUES JUST BELOW AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
1-1.2 THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK MID/UPPER
TROUGH/LOW SWINGS FROM ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SUCCEEDED BY A NEW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST
TO THE NW GULF COAST ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY AID IN INCREASING
POPS SOMEWHAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TS ERIKA REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED WITH AN ILL DEFINED LLC AND IS
NOW APPROACHING HISPANIOLA. THIS LACK OF ORGANIZATION HAS ALLOWED
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO AVOID GREATER INFLUENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL
STEERING AND INSTEAD CONTINUE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. AS A RESULT,
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA, THOUGH IT ALSO SHOWS WEAKENING. AS ERIKA PASSES OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT, IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
THE STORM COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. REGARDLESS OF HOW IT
EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A MID/UPPER
TROUGH WHICH WOULD DEFLECT ANY SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST, BUT THE 12Z
ECM AND ECM ENS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MIDWEEK. IF ANYTHING, AS
SUGGESTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY FOR OUR AREA TO RECEIVE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FOLLOW BELOW... /DL/

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE OVER THE CONUS AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE WEST WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
SURGES WELL NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA AND ENCOMPASSES MOST OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS. IN THE TRANSITION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND MEANDER AROUND AS THE
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES BECOMES DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH.

THE NET EFFECT FOR THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD MEAN GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARMTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE SLOW TO INCREASE GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR LIFT. NEW GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES/POPS ARE IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST TRENDS FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  91  68  92 /   0   8   8   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  66  90 /   5  19  15  14
VICKSBURG     62  92  65  92 /   0   4   4   8
HATTIESBURG   67  89  68  91 /   3  13  13  12
NATCHEZ       63  90  67  89 /   0   3   4  10
GREENVILLE    64  92  68  92 /   0   4   5  10
GREENWOOD     66  90  67  91 /   0   8   9  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/19/EC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.