Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 060316
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED OUT AT MOST PLACES SO THE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE THE BIGGEST EFFECT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES. OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST LOWS
AS THEY WERE ALREADY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND HOURLY`S ARE ON TRACK FOR
THE MOST PART. EXPECT FROST TO BE WIDESPREAD COME MORNING. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FLIGHT CATS
MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY ABOVE 8 KFT. ALSO...FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ON STATIC
GROUND-BASED SURFACES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF MS. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OVERALL...CONTINUED
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.  SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  MY THINKING IS THIS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
HAMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING...THUS KEEPING LOWS TONIGHT A TAD BIT
WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING. STILL...LOWS WILL BE CHILLY
AS THEY BOTTOM OUT FROM THE LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 20S.

SOME CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES IT`S EASTWARD
TREK THROUGH THE REGION.  A WEAK SURFACE LOW PROMPTED BY THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF EAST TEXAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MISS MY FAR SOUTHWEST
ZONES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY.  UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. SKIES
WILL CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S.

CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION.  A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A COLD FRONT RACING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  ONCE AGAIN...OTHER
THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH THE
REGION BY DAY BREAK MONDAY.  HIGHS SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S. /19/

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME COLD AIR
WILL COME DOWN FROM CANADA. EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
BE AGGRESSIVE WITH A COLD LARGE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUS LOW HEIGHTS, AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE PROG BY THE GEFS AND NAEFS ANOMALIES AND
PERCENTILES ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FOR THAT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES LOOK TO BE PRETTY COLD EVEN THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS NOT THAT STRONG.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS
925/850 MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW 0C. THE SUPERBLEND AND SOME OF
THE MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED A LITTLE WARM SO WENT CLOSER TO SOME OF THE
COOLER RAW GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUPERBLEND
LOWS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR NOW.

EXPECT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE COOLER AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SOME RAW CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 40S FAR WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE AS HIGHER HEIGHTS COME IN FROM
THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY
THURSDAY. LOWS WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S BY EARLY
FRIDAY. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       29  55  31  59 /   0   7   0   1
MERIDIAN      27  55  29  59 /   0   6   0   1
VICKSBURG     32  55  33  60 /   0   9   0   1
HATTIESBURG   28  56  30  60 /   0   6   1   0
NATCHEZ       32  55  32  59 /   1  10   0   1
GREENVILLE    32  53  33  58 /   0   7   0   1
GREENWOOD     28  53  31  58 /   0   6   0   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.