Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 251606 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 AM SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HIRES CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. AREA
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWS THAT WE WILL EASILY REACH THE 60S FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SO WITH THAT IN MIND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST./17/


329 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS ON A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/
TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IOWA THIS EARLY MORNING...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH...
ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE AREA.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE OR TWO NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THAT AREA BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND MOVING OUT BY 03Z. LAPSE
RATES WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ONLY INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER ITEM OF NOTE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME AREAS MAY MIX UP TO
NEARLY 800 MB DURING PEAK HEATING. IF THIS PANS OUT...WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND
SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. /DL/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY MORNING THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THIS
PATTERN WILL SWIFTLY FLATTEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
OVER OUR REGION. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN EAST OF OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL LEND TO DRY WEATHER AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND GOING INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES...THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE LONG TERM WITH MOST SITES TOPPING OUT 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVER OUR
DELTA REGION BY NOON THEN EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
GFS AND CANADIAN REMAIN DRY OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION OF RAIN THIS PACKAGE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL KNOCK MORNING LOWS FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 30S OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND LIMIT HIGHS FRIDAY TO THE 50S AGAIN.
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND`S WEATHER
AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A >1028MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF
OUR CWA LIMITING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WHILE OUR WINDS ALOFT BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO OUR AREA
SATURDAY. NEITHER MODEL BRING THE CLOSED LOW EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...INSTEAD A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES POINT TO
A COLD RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A DRY FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THIS AREA. GUSTS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY FOR GLH...GWO AND GTR. THEY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TVR.
SOME GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER SITES...BUT SHOULD BE
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF CLOUD DECK BKN TO
OVC...BUT HEIGHTS WILL BE REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. OVERALL...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  41  53  38 /   5   9   0   0
MERIDIAN      64  42  52  34 /   6  13   0   0
VICKSBURG     65  40  56  39 /   2   6   0   0
HATTIESBURG   68  42  57  37 /   0   2   0   0
NATCHEZ       65  40  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    60  38  53  39 /  12  12   0   0
GREENWOOD     60  39  52  37 /  17  19   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22







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