National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KJAN 240740
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
240 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE ISSUE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATE MORNING AT THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS
FOLLOWED BY THE RISK OF A FEW RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD ALONG WITH TEMPS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHILE THE ARKLAMISS REGION WAS BEING FLANKED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
ON THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WAS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...WHICH WERENT LASTING LONG DUE TO WEAK MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE MID TO
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR REGION AT NIGHT FOR THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
BE OVER THE GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
THE SOUTH THERE WILL BE A SLIM CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. THE NATIONAL
WRF MODELS SHOWED SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING IT AS IT HEADED NORTH INTO THE DRYER AIR.  THE SPC
WRF LOOKED A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH STRONG STORMS IN THE
SOUTHWEST SPREADING NORTH PRIOR TO DAWN. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD DRYING IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS(PWATS FROM 0.4 EAST TO AROUND 1 INCH WEST) WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS COMING INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW. AS FOR TEMPS
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH. LOWS WILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS
FROM THE MIDDLE 40S EAST TO THE MIDDLE 50S WEST. THIS BRING THE RISK
OF BREAKING SOME RECORD LOWS IN THE EAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ON
CLIMATE STATS HATTIESBURG RECORD LOW OF 52 IN 1983 AND MERIDIANS LOW
OF 47 IN 1979. FOR TEMPS WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... DURING THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL COME BACK OVER THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE PERIOD. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACCORDING
TO GFS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM MODEL KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE
REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S EAST
TO THE AROUND 60 WEST./17/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
THE HIGH HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SW

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A QUIET TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
FOR MOST SITES. A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE AT HBG AND WILL COVER WITH A 2HR TEMPO FOR 5SM. SKC
CONDITIONS FOR FRI WITH A NNE WIND AT 10-18KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO AROUND 6 KNOTS FROM THE NE BY 00Z./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  51  85  55 /   6   4   3   8
MERIDIAN      87  44  85  50 /   2   4   3   6
VICKSBURG     82  53  85  54 /   7   4   3  12
HATTIESBURG   88  53  87  53 /   6   5   3   4
NATCHEZ       84  56  85  59 /  17   8   7  10
GREENVILLE    79  55  82  59 /   3   4   4  10
GREENWOOD     79  49  82  54 /   2   4   4   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


17/SW