Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 271429 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
929 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...have updated the forecast to increase pops over our western
zones as a weakening area of thunderstorms will spread east across
the western portions of our cwa during the next couple of hours. The
accompanying thick cloud cover will impact insolation and cooler
temperatures are expected today over the western half of our area.
High pressure is still expected to hinder convection over east
Mississippi where we will continue to leave out mention of rain
today. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...bkn-ovc skies wl remain above 3kft most of today although
lower cigs may accompany VCTS at GLH and GWO until 28/00Z. Winds
will be gusty out of the southeast during the heat of the day with
sustained at 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25. /26/22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...IR imagery this morning
is showing considerable convective debris overspreading the forecast
area as blowoff continues from persistent mesoscale system over
eastern TX.  These clouds and showers will definitely affect the
start of warming today and not allow it to its fullest potential.

Slow moving storm system moving out of the Rockies this morning will
move into the central Plains this afternoon.  Main corridor of
convection will continue from south central TX northeastward into
the ArkLaTex region.  Still expect to see some convection over our
northwest sections, but cooler temperatures today should promote
more stability and less risk of strong storms.  Elsewhere over the
region, wedge of relatively dry air continues in the lower levels
from south GA/FL westward across south AL and into south MS.  This
has led to rather warm afternoons and the absence of convection.
Expect this trend to continue for this area through Saturday as no
mechanism exists for change.

Storm system will lift northeast into the upper MS valley by
Saturday, but will still have to contend with southwest flow over
the region, albeit weaker.  The best surface dewpoints and chance of
convection will remain over the northwest, but should be somewhat
slimmer than today./26/

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday Night...Another hot day is on
tap for Sunday as mid level ridging continues to prevail.  Afternoon
heating may kick of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.  Little
will change on Monday as mid level ridging continues to prevail with
highs around 90 once again and isolated afternoon thunderstorms.
Little will change on Tuesday and Wednesday, but both the GFS/ECMWF
indicate a frontal boundary will drop into the area by Thursday with
better chances for more widespread thunderstorm activity./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  68  87  67 /  20  13  22  13
Meridian      88  65  86  63 /   8   8  16  11
Vicksburg     85  67  87  68 /  32  23  32  13
Hattiesburg   88  67  88  65 /   8   6  13   9
Natchez       83  68  87  68 /  26  16  29  11
Greenville    84  68  87  68 /  63  35  34  13
Greenwood     87  68  87  67 /  26  24  27  13

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

26/15



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