Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 310833
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
433 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...TURNING COLDER AND WINDY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS
IN THE PROCESS OF ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THE DRY AIR IS
WINNING THE BATTLE AND AS A RESULT THE STRATOCU FIELD IS
DISSIPATING NORTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE...AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...HAS MOSTLY SUPPRESSED ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADARS CURRENTLY SHOW A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE FROM PALM COAST IN FLAGLER COUNTY. HAVE
REMOVED PRECIP FROM ALL LAND AREAS GIVEN THESE LATEST TRENDS. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THOUGH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. THIS HALLOWEEN EVENING WILL FEATURE
COMFORTABLE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S DURING THE EARLY EVENING
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY LATE EVENING. AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BUT SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL ENSURE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS FRONT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLD AND DRY AIR.
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ACTUALLY OCCUR JUST AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION USHERING IN A
COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS ON BLUSTERY NW WINDS. WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S
ACROSS MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. WINDS DECREASE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
RIVER AND COAST.

SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER SO IT WILL NOT FEEL NEARLY AS CHILLY AS SATURDAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 INLAND AND AROUND 50 ALONG THE RIVER AND
COAST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) HIGH BUILDS INTO THE SE U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK. A DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH A CONSIDERABLE
MODERATION IN TEMPS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY WHEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION. AMENDMENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TREND AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SEAS
INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET. A UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
USHER IN A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COLD
AIR MOVING OVER WARM WATER WILL RESULT IN 850 DELTA T VALUES
AROUND 25 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. GIVEN THESE VALUES...FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE SEEM TO BE A GIVEN ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE ZONES ON
SATURDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS MAY SUBSIDE A LITTLE SOONER THAN THIS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE USED FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES. WINDS/SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.FIRE WX...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND.
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL YIELD HIGH
DISPERSIONS OF NEAR 100 MOST AREAS SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
ERC VALUES AND FUEL MOISTURE VALUES FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINE
CONDITIONS BUT APPEARS THEY WILL FALL SHORT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  41  56  36 /   0  10   0   0
SSI  74  48  57  42 /   0  10   0   0
JAX  75  45  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  74  51  60  44 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  75  46  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  76  47  61  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/PETERSON/











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