Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 251347
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...HOT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

.UPDATE...
SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA YESTERDAY HAS NOW PUSHED
EAST INTO THE WRN ATLC WHILE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS CONTINUES TO PRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS GEORGIA WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LIFT. MAIN CHANGES
SEEN IN THE JAX SOUNDING SINCE YESTERDAY IS A SLIGHT COOLING TO
AROUND -7C AT 500MB WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF JULY VALUES AND WILL
ADD TO THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 1.80 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POPS IN THE CLIMO RANGE OF 30-50% IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE STEERING
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS WILL KEEP THE ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST AND ALLOW FOR THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
TO DOMINATE AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORM MOTION
TOWARDS THE E/NE AT 15-20 MPH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
WILL BE WITH BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW COLLISIONS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE STORMS REACH THE STATIONARY ATLC COAST SBRZ FRONT AND EXPECT
SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH/FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AROUND 250-300MLB WILL LEAD
TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THAT LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE WITH A SLIGHT LIMIT ON UPDRAFT STRENGTH.
OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SURGE WELL
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BEFORE STORMS REACH THEIR HIGHEST
COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY AND EXPECT HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-105
RANGE AREA-WIDE. ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND END AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH FAIR SKIES AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG TOWARDS MORNING. NEAR
CLIMO LOWS IN THE 70S EXPECTED AND THE CONTINUED SOUTHWEST STEERING
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE BIG BEND REGION OF THE
GULF COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS SLIPPING INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR
OF NE FL AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH STILL A
LACK OF DEFINITE TIMING WILL KEEP IN VCTS WORDING AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH START TIMES GENERALLY IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. ACTIVITY WILL
END AFTER SUNSET WITH VCTS ENDING AROUND 00-02Z. SOME MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND VRB15G25KT MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED AS STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED.

&&

.MARINE...
W/SW FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WILL BECOME S/SW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS SO BOATERS
WILL NEED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  72  95  74 /  50  50  20  20
SSI  91  77  91  77 /  50  50  20  20
JAX  94  73  93  74 /  60  60  30  20
SGJ  90  75  90  75 /  60  60  30  20
GNV  93  72  92  72 /  50  30  30  20
OCF  93  74  93  73 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/MCALLISTER/WALSH




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