Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 240742
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
342 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.NEAR TERM (through Tonight)...
Hurricane Maria is moving northward this morning, and an upper
level low is spinning across the Florida Panhandle. Outside of
just a few isolated showers moving inland from the Atlantic this
morning, generally drier air and warmer mid level temperatures
will continue to suppress most convection through the day today.
Available instability will wane as the day progresses, but before
it does isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be
possible, mostly just across northeast Florida. Other than right
along the coast, it should be a bit less breezy inland today as
onshore flow continues. Similar temperatures to Saturday are
expected, with perhaps a few more locations reaching 90 degrees
across north central Florida. Cirrus from Maria will move in late
in the day and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Monday through Tuesday)...A dry and subsident air
mass will be over the area as Hurricane Maria well offshore moves
northward. Breezy northeast winds will continue Monday for
locations near the east coast. Winds will decrease and become
offshore on Tuesday as the gradient weakens with Maria moving
further away. Pops will be nil with temperatures a few degrees
above average.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Saturday)...
Wednesday and Thursday will be warm and dry for ne Fl/se GA as
Hurricane Maria slowly approaches the NC coastline before moving
out to sea. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s Wed and Thu
with offshore winds. Models diverge Friday and Saturday with the
GFS more aggressive than the ECMWF with cold front moving into the
area and moisture return. Blended models show slight chance pops
Friday and chance pops Saturday. Above normal temperatures will
continue through Friday with near normal temps on Saturday due to
increased clouds/showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected today, though there are some
scattered MVFR decks and patchy MVFR fog floating around this
morning. Isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder are
possible today, though most locations will stay dry. Winds will
remain northeasterly around 8 to 12 knots, gusting near 20 knots
along the coast and St. Johns River.

&&

.MARINE...
Hurricane Maria continues to move slowly northward, keeping the
possibility of large swells in the regional waters. East
northeast winds will also be 15 to 20 knots. Seas in the near
shore waters of 6-9 feet will continue through Monday, and 8-12
waves are likely in the offshore waters through Wednesday. SCA
level seas are likely to persist for much of next week. Maria
will pass our latitude on Monday well to our east, allowing winds
to shift to a northerly and then northwesterly direction with
decreasing speeds by late Monday and Tuesday.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents through Monday due to
increasing swells from Hurricane Maria. High Surf Advisory in
effect late tonight through Monday morning for surf 7 feet or
higher along the coast of northeast Florida. Beach erosion will
become an increasing concern during times of high tide through
early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in place for the St. Johns River
basin, as minor flooding continues during each high tide cycle
from Jacksonville southward to Palatka. Further south, flooding
approaches moderate levels into the Welaka and Ocklawaha River
basins. Strengthening onshore winds may keep the risk of minor to
moderate flooding in place during times of high tide through early
next week.

Moderate flooding continues along portions of the Santa Fe and St.
Mary`s Rivers, with minor flooding along the Satilla River east of
Waycross and portions of the Upper Suwannee River north of I-10.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  68  88  67 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  84  73  85  72 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  85  71  88  70 /  20  10  10   0
SGJ  85  74  86  71 /  20  10  10   0
GNV  87  69  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
OCF  90  70  89  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for Clay-Coastal
     Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for Coastal Duval-
     Flagler-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Elsenheimer/Zibura



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