Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 160209
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1009 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WITH JUST A FEW
POCKETS OF LEFTOVER STRATIFORM RAIN AND A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MAINLY JUST ISOLATED
ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED UP FOR THE NIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT
A FEW POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT THE
FLORIDA TERMINALS AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW AT NIGHT AND LOCAL SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY...ALL AT
15 KNOTS OR LESS. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM EDOUARD WED/THU WHICH MAY PUSH THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO
COMBINED SEAS OF 4-6 FT AND A SCEC HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES INTO TUE...THEN LONG-PERIOD SWELLS
FROM EDOUARD WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES WITH AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  88  70  88 /  60  50  40  20
SSI  75  84  72  85 /  60  70  60  40
JAX  72  87  71  88 /  30  70  60  50
SGJ  74  86  72  84 /  30  70  70  60
GNV  71  86  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
OCF  71  87  70  86 /  20  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/PETERSON/WALKER






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