Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 300807
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM....NEAR TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH
CONVECTION INITIATING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS CONVECTION MAY THEN DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH CONVECTION
INITIATING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE REGION
DUE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THEN EXPAND
IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S INLAND TODAY...A LITTLE COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. READINGS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY...DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 500
MB TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES SW INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MIGRATING EWD FROM NRN TX TO THE
LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SWD TO SERN U.S. THEN TO THE NW GULF COAST. THIS FRONT STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT EWD MONDAY MOVING TOWARD OUR NRN ZONES MONDAY AFTN
AND EVENING.

MAINLY ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...LEFT
OVER FROM DIURNAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD FADE AFTER
MIDNIGHT THOUGH MAY NOT COMPLETELY QUIT OVER NRN ZONES DUE TO SOME
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSHING EWD OVER GA. INCREASED LIFT
ASSOCD WITH COOL FRONT MOVING TOWARD OUR REGION...INCREASED PWAT
VALUES AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVERALL SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTN-EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE SHOWN BEST
CHANCES OVER SE GA AT 40-50 PERCENT WHERE FORCING FROM PROXIMITY TO
WEAK COOL FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC TO N CENTRAL GA TO LA AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS BETTER. OTHERWISE W AND E SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL HELP CONVECTIVE FORCING OVER NE FL. THE 850 MB TEMPS
ARE WELL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S AGAIN ON
MONDAY. LINGERING MAINLY ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED MON NIGHT
AS FRONT CONTS NW OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

RELATIVELY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS COOL FRONT
LOCATED OVER CAROLINAS TO SRN AL PUSHES ESE AND SUPPORTS SCT
CONVECTION WITH DEEP WLY FLOW BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE E COAST
BEACHES AND THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS. LOWERING THICKNESSES AND PRECIP
CHANCES MAY HELP NUDGE MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PRIOR
DAYS. MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SERN
STATES WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO MODEL SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
FCST DIMINISHES TUE AND WED.

CONSENSUS FCST SHOWS FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE GA COAST BY EARLY WED
MORNING AND NE FL MIDDAY ON WED. DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE W ON WED AND ESPECIALLY THU AND FRI WITH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WANING WITH DEEP LAYER NW FLOW DUE TO ANOMALOUS DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR TO JUST BELOW CLIMO
WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...ALONG
WITH FOG WHICH WILL CAUSE RESTRICTIONS AT AREA TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE...WITH PREVAILING VFR ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KGNV. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY DRIFT EAST TOWARD EASTERN TAF SITES INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTHEAST/EAST OF AREA WATERS THIS
WEEKEND. A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST TOWARD
AREA WATERS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DIMINISH AS IT
ENTERS AREA WATERS NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  66  88  68 /  30  30  30  30
SSI  82  71  81  70 /  10  10  20  30
JAX  88  68  87  69 /  10  20  30  20
SGJ  84  70  83  69 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  91  67  88  67 /  30  30  20  20
OCF  92  67  88  67 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY



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