Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 021910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH MONDAY...WAVE OF ENERGY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH
MONDAY.

LACK OF INSTABILITY UNDER SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
PRECIPITATION TO SHOWERS THUS FAR...BUT WITH INCREASING BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY LIGHT THUS FAR
TODAY...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. SINCE
THE WATCH AREA HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT...AND UNCERTAIN
ABOUT POTENTIAL TO GET ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THERE THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE CANCELED THE WATCH. COULD NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EAST OF THE WAVE...
BUT POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED FLOODING HAS DECREASED.

EXPECT MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WAVE
POSITION ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW TRACK MONDAY...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR NORMAL OVER SE GA...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER NE
FL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...E-W UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE
SEABREEZE MERGERS NEAR THE EAST COAST. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES
EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE SE ON THURSDAY AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
U.S.  ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH TO NEAR THE GA-FL BORDER.
SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NUMEROUS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE SPINS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ALONG A
STATIONARY TROUGH.

THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE TROUGH THROUGH
MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS 18Z TAF CYCLE...ESPECIALLY FOR NE FL
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...THE COMBINATION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH...AND A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RESULT IN INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH MONDAY.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUTER
WATERS.

THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF AREA WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST... AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  92  75  97 /  20  20  10  20
SSI  76  90  76  89 /  40  50  30  30
JAX  72  91  75  93 /  50  50  30  40
SGJ  75  88  75  89 /  60  60  30  40
GNV  75  88  74  89 /  70  70  30  40
OCF  74  87  74  88 /  80  80  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS
FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/ZIBURA/COMBS


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