Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261813
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
213 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A rather quiet day on KBYX doppler radar, as the closest echoes
are off the coast of northern Cuba...well beyond our service area.
The middle and lower Keys are currently feeling the lingering affects
of the modified continental air being pulled back across. That is,
the dewpoint at Marathon was sub 60 at the last hourly observation,
something I honestly didn`t think we`d see again until after summer.
Anyway, observations upstream shows that moisture will be returning
to our neighborhood, at least in the lowest levels by late this
evening. Currently, winds are from the east and moderating at all
reporting sensors. Temperatures are near or slightly above 85 degrees
along the island chain.

The center of high surface pressure is weakening well east of the
Carolina coast, but the axis remains stretched across south Ga and
north Fl and into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. There is nice
agreement on the latest large scale models concerning the formation
of low pressure northeast of the Bahamas, strengthening toward the
southeast coast of the US over the next 36 to 48 hours. This will
loosen the gradient for the Keys and allow the winds to further
moderate/slacken. But moisture will be returning in the lower levels.
With the mid to upper level gyre remaining just to the east of the
Florida peninsula, the mid layers should remain comparatively drier
through at least late Friday. A few showers are not out of the
question beginning mainly after midnight. Instability should increase
with less convective resistance by Friday afternoon to warrant
keeping thunderstorms included with the few showers. In fact, aside
from the wind profile flattening at and above the mid layers through
the weekend and into next week, moisture should remain rather
constant. Will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
advertised for the entire forecast through and beyond the holiday
weekend. Winds may acquire some variability in direction by early
next week thanks to the lingering affects of elongated lower pressure
along the southeast, should the latest GFS solution come to fruition.
But, the gridded wind elements will retain at least some vestige of
an easterly component all the way through the forecast. Near normal
temperatures tonight will rebound to be at or above the seasonal
average through the balance of the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate easterly breezes will steadily slacken over the next couple
of days as developing low pressure northeast of the Bahamas erodes
the high pressure currently stretched off the southeast coast.
Although winds may surge later tonight, current thinking is that no
cautionary or advisory headlines will be necessary for any of the
coastal waters surrounding the Florida Keys through the entire
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and moderate easterly breezes will prevail at the
EYW and MTH terminals.

&&

.CLIMATE...May 26th, on this date in Key West climate
history, in the year 1882, 2.89 inches of record rainfall was
recorded. Precipitation records in Key West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  78  87  78  88 / 20 20 20 20
Marathon  78  89  78  90 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......BWC

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