Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 251442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1042 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...High pressure stretches west into the southeastern
United States, supported by a deep, mid-upper level anticyclone
centered near the southern Appalachians. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure is nearing the Turks and Caicos Islands in the southeastern
Bahamas. Between these systems, the Florida Keys are within an area
of deep east-northeasterly flow. This morning`s 12Z RAOB sampled deep
tropical moisture, moderate instability, and limited inhibition.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have reduced in coverage on the
most recent scans. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s and
dewpoints are in the upper 70s.

.FORECAST...We expect more showers and storms to develop this
afternoon or evening. Cloud line genesis appears a possibility based
on the vertical profile depicted by forecast soundings. Additionally,
convection over South Florida will move west-southwest this evening,
potentially racing through the bay and gulf side waters towards the
Lower Keys. We will reanalyze the situation based on the 12Z
guidance and radar trends. No changes currently needed.

.Tropics...An area of low pressure (99L) is approaching the Turks and
Caicos Islands. This system will move to the west-northwest for the
next few days, and will be near the central Bahamas on Saturday.
Interests in the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rainfall
appear likely Sunday morning through Monday night.


.MARINE...An area of high pressure will remain over the southeastern
United States this afternoon through Monday. Meanwhile, an area of
low pressure centered just southeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands
will move west-northwestward over the next several days, towards
South Florida and the Florida Keys.


.AVIATION....Rest of today...Brief mvfr/ifr cigs and/or vis are possible at
either the KEYW or KMTH Int`l island terminals on account of
scattered showers and storms moving from 080 degrees aoa 10 to 15
knots. Away from convection, surface winds will be out of the east
at around 10 knots.


Key West  89  79  90  80 / 40 40 40 40
Marathon  92  79  92  80 / 40 40 40 40


.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Data Collection......Vickery

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