Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KKEY 021840
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
240 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE...CENTERED SOUTH OF
BERMUDA...EXTENDS WEST TO AN ANCHORING HIGH NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA
BORDER. IN BETWEEN...THE RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH BISECTING THE BAHAMAS. ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT CIMSS
ANALYSES...THE MAX CURVATURE WITH THIS FEATURE IS NEAR 700
MB...WEAKLY LINKED WITH A NEARLY COLOCATED TUTT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE
BEEN DISTURBED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION...YET ON THE AVERAGE...ARE
FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 80 TO 90
DEGREES...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE LOCATION HAS BEEN RAIN
COOLED.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...THE ATMOSPHERE IS
SOLIDLY MARITIME TROPICAL. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND A WESTWARD
MOVING TUTT WILL AMPLIFY THIS ATMOSPHERE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TODAY`S COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MORE THAN OUR
ADVERTISED FORECAST...AND MUCH MORE THAN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE TUTT ELONGATES
AND FILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL AND WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MEAN LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
FRACTURED TO OUR NORTH...WHILE THE FLORIDA KEYS BATHE IN THE MOIST
EAST SOUTHEASTERLIES. UNDULATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SWATHS OF CONVERGENT...MAINLY NOCTURNAL SHOWERS. WE
HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUSLY STRUCTURED FORECAST OF NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST FROM THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS
A RESULT...MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE POSSIBILITIES ARE NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1935...THE
LABOR DAY HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF LONG KEY...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 185 MPH. THIS IS THE MOST INTENSE
HURRICANE TO EVER MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES SINCE RELIABLE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1851. THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE OF 1935 RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED FROM A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE NEAR ANDROS ISLAND INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...BEFORE STRIKING THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS.
THERE WAS NEAR COMPLETE DESTRUCTION ALONG A 30-MILE WIDE SWATH FROM
TAVERNIER TO MARATHON. THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE OF 1935 CAUSED 408
CASUALTIES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...MAKING IT THE 8TH DEADLIEST
HURRICANE IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1851.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 82 90 81 89 / 50 50 50 40
MARATHON 82 91 81 91 / 50 50 50 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.