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000
FXUS62 KKEY 191924
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
323 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
MOSTLY SUNNY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE SMOTHERING THE
ISLAND CHAIN WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 90 DEGREES. WITH THE
SAHARAN LAYER OVERSPREADING OUR REGION...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING
A FEW SHOWERS ON THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER
KEYS...AS WELL AS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE EXTREME UPPER KEYS. SURFACE
WISE...A TENACIOUS...STEADY STATE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND
10 KNOTS ALONG THE REEF.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ALIGNED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SUNSHINE STATE TONIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A LOW AND MID
LEVEL UNDULATION TRACKS WESTWARD AND INTO THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN BY LATE
FRIDAY. GIVEN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ANTICYCLONE...MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR IN THE FORM OF A WELL
PRONOUNCED INVERSION BELOW 850 MB WILL GOVERN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH DIME POPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND 20 PERCENT
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURE WISE...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW AND MID LEVEL UNDULATION...BUT IN
VARIOUS DEGREES OF CURVATURE...WILL TRACK WEST AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...WITH A MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. IN ADDITION...A DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC...MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY REGIME WILL SET UP ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
BECAUSE OF CONSISTENCY AND CLIMATOLOGY...HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP UP
POPS TO 40 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS HAVING TO BE INSERTED FOR NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AMPLE
INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 80 AWAY FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL PREDOMINATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL FRESHEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SLACKENING SOMEWHAT SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE END OF THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT
SAID...AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
OTHER PORTIONS POSSIBLY INCLUDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 20/06Z. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS CONTINUE TO PUSH CLOUD LINES NORTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN...WITH ON IMPACT ON TERMINAL OPERATIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 19TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1884...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY REACHED 80 DEGREES. THIS COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD REMAINS 129 YEARS LATER. FOR COMPARISON...THE
NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN KEY WEST FOR THIS DAY OF THE
YEAR ARE 88 AND 79...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  89  83  89 / 10 10 10 20
MARATHON  84  92  84  92 / 10 10 10 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA ACQUISITION......MP

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