Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 211849
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
249 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A LARGE AREA OF STRATOFORM RAIN IS ENVELOPING THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS AT THIS HOUR. FROM THE KBYX RADAR WE CAN SEE A
MESO SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX SPINNING TOWARD THE LOWER KEYS. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BACK TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS REPORTING
AROUND THE ISLANDS...WITH NEAR 5 KNOTS REPORTED AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS.

.FORECAST SHORT TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE STALLED TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PLUS THE WET ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
KEYS...AS OBSERVED BY THE MORNING SOUNDING...IS VERY WET...AND
FAIRLY UNSTABLE. THE LINGERING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH IS TRAPPING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WAVERING ACROSS THE KEYS AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE TROUGH...A WEAK
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS BEING INVESTIGATED BY A RECON
FLIGHT...IS PUMPING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE KEYS ENVIRONMENT.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WE WILL KEEP
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO DIMINISH AND WINDS TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE RIDGE DOMINATES KEYS WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA STRAITS WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ON THURSDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE ACROSS THE ENTIRE KEYS COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/22ND...EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SUB-VFR EPISODES AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AWAY FROM CELLS...MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS CAN
BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1883...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 8.23" WAS RECORDED.
PRECIPITATION RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  82  75  81 / 80 80 80 80
MARATHON  74  82  74  81 / 80 80 80 80

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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