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000
FXUS62 KKEY 311447
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. AHEAD OF THIS LEADING
FRONT...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS. ALONG THE TROUGH...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
PERSISTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS 60 NM NORTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
APPEAR TO BE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A WIND SURGE...OWING
TO THEIR FASTER MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS AT THE MARINE
OBSERVATION TOWERS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED THIS MORNING...NOW WESTERLY
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WHILE BUOY 42003 HAS NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS. DEWPOINTS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE AROUND 70F...COMPARED TO
59F AT 42003...SO CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY.

.FORECAST...THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS
AROUND 700 PM THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLIES...LOWERING HUMIDITY...AND CUMULUS-CLEARING SKIES. BY
TOMORROW MORNING...DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE AROUND 60F. THE ISLANDS WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE ZONES...BUT A FEW
TWEAKS TO THE COASTALS INCLUDING MENTIONING OF A SHORT-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TONIGHT ACROSS FLORIDA BAY.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1912...2.15 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON OCTOBER 31ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 102 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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