Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 291749
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CDFNT CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER NW LA PER LATEST SFC OBS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TODAY/TONIGHT...REACHING KAEX BY
EARLY EVENING AND THE COASTAL SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. FOG HAS
DISSIPATED LATE THIS MORNING WITH FEW/SCT CLDS NEAR 2K FT STILL
EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH DUE TO THE LATER EXPECTED TIMING OF
FROPA...REDUCED VSBYS AT THE SRN SITES ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED. DID SEND OUT
A NEW ZFP MINUS THE EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW DENSE FOG IS EITHER ONGOING OR POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW CEILINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES POOLING VIA ONSHORE
FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...AND POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10 KNOTS
OR MORE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DENSE
FOG.  CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE AROUND A QUARTER MILE ESPECIALLY
ALONG I10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES.  CURRENT ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION LOOK FINE FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT
IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED LONGER THAN 14Z.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLY WARM AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ENTER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY MIDNIGHT. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED  THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER.  DRIER MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND NEXT FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.

MARINE...ALONG BAYS...WILL CONTINUE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.
APPEARS THAT ANY FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND NOT
OFFSHORE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED SCEC AND PERHAPS SCA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MORE PERSISTENT SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  47  61  42 /  10  10   0  10
KBPT  72  49  61  44 /  10  10   0  10
KAEX  72  43  59  37 /   0  10   0  10
KLFT  74  47  61  42 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





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