Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 301438
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPDATE WILL BE POPS AND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING MCS
MOVING INTO NE TEXAS. SOME ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING AS LCH SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MULTICELL STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF MCS OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION. NO CHANGES TO POP OR RAINFALL FORECASTS AT THIS MOMENT
AS CONFIGURATION OF MID TO HIGH POPS FOR LATER TODAY LOOKS GOOD
FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE INITIAL MCS
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...HOWEVER NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PW`S LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. OVERALL THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT
ISSUE A WATCH...HOWEVER WITH WET SOILS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE
ECMWF IN MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED REDUCED RAINFALL
CHANCES. THAT SAID THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (AVERAGE OF 1-1.5 INCHES) TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF THAT COULD SWELL SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS
THAT ARE IN FLOOD AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW OTHERS TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD.

AS MENTIONED ALREADY THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT A BIT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT POPS STILL
MAY BE TOO HIGH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MAY NEED TO BE
REDUCED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. IN ADDITION THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INSTEAD OF ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  40  60  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  30  60  40
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  30  60  40
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04



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