Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 292013
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
313 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Lowered pops for coastal areas of southeast Texas and
southwest Louisiana for the remainder of the afternoon.
Also..raised pops across the northeast part of central
Louisiana where unstable airmass has initiated convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1216 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

AVIATION...Low pressure meandering about the western gulf will
maintain considerable shower and thunderstorm activity this
afternoon. Scattered convection can be expected across the southern
portion of the area, becoming more isolated further north.
Maintaining TEMPO for TSRA this afternoon at BPT, LCH, LFT and
ARA. Will simply keep VCTS in at AEX. VFR is expected to prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1003 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

UPDATE...
CURRENT PROBABILITY OF RAIN LOOKS REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AS WELL WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN DEVELOPING OR
MOVING INLAND LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...THEREFORE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND THERE.

ADDED SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 PM FOR THE
EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE MARINE WATERS WHERE HIGHER WINDS AND
GUST WERE FOUND THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WFO
HGX WHICH ALSO HAD A SCA BUMPING UP AGAINST OUR OWN SCA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

AVIATION...Periods of lower visibility and ceilings will be
possible through the day as scattered to numerous thunderstorms
move across the region. Most convection is off the coast this
morning, however rain and storms will spread inland through the
morning. Conditions will improve through the evening as heating
is lost and convection decreases. Winds will be generally
northeast or east and gusty at times near storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 458 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread convection ongoing over the Gulf waters this morning,
with latest radar imagery showing a northward surge twd the SW LA
coast over the past couple of hrs. Stubborn upper low over the NW
Gulf that has kept convective activity around the past few days is
progged to finally weaken and sink to the SW, but only after
yielding one final day of above normal showers and thunderstorms.
Pattern should be similar to that of the past few days, with peak
inland convection occurring from late morning through early
evening. The departure of the low along with the arrival of
relatively drier air will result in more isolated to scattered
convection TUE, with rain chances decreasing further WED and THU
as a deep continental flow develops over the region between a
building ridge over the Central CONUS and a digging TROF to the
east, the latter feature also helping to scoop up whatever
becomes of TD Nine.

A weak CDFNT progged to sag into the area FRI, giving a bit of a
boost to rain chances. This feature subsequently washes out, with
an onshore flow resuming for the weekend.

Temperatures will remain at or below normal today, heavily
influenced by clouds/PCPN. Warmer areawide readings expected
tomorrow and especially WED/THU as rain chances decrease amid the
drier offshore flow. Seasonal temperatures return to end the week
and on through the weekend.

13

MARINE...
An upper low over the northwest Gulf will continue to result in
widespread showers and thunderstorms today. Rain chances will
decrease tonight into Tuesday as the low weakens and sinks toward
the southwest. A light to moderate east to northeast flow will
prevail through the period.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  74  94  74 /  50  20  20  10
LCH  86  76  93  76 /  60  30  30  10
LFT  87  75  92  76 /  50  20  20  10
BPT  85  75  92  76 /  60  30  30  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for
     GMZ450-470.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...06



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