Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 221004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST....WITH
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ELEVATED THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION.

AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE TX...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS REGION IN MARGINAL RISK...INCREASING TO SLIGHT TOWARDS
ACADIANA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN MORNING.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION...SW WINDS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SUN...BUT PRECIP ENDING. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE A BIT DELAYED...NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL COOL RE-
ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER ALL ZONES...UPGRADING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BY 18Z FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES THRU 12Z SUN. THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

DML

&&

.TIDAL FLOODING...
THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE TIDAL LEVELS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SE TX/LA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS. WITH THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 2 FEET OVERNIGHT...TOTAL
TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 3.5 TO 4.0 FEET MLLW.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  62  76  52  66 /  50 100  20  10  10
KBPT  70  62  77  52  65 /  80 100  10  10  10
KAEX  71  60  77  48  65 /  30 100  20  10  10
KLFT  73  63  77  54  67 /  40 100  80  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$






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