Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 010129
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
829 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TNITE AS A SHORT WAVE
NEAR MATAGORDA BAY HEADS EAST. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT
AROUND GALVESTON BAY IN RESPONSE. TWEAKED TEMPS UP A TAD DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK SE
FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISO SHRA DIMINISHED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A FEW SHRA BEGINNING TO POP UP
OVER SE TX. FOR NOW...20% STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
A TASTE OF LATE SUMMER HAS RETURNED...WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORNING
LOWS WED EXPECTED IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE SW...INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THU. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS SE TX/C AND S LA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WED...AND AGAIN THU. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...AND
LOW/MID 70S FOR LOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

BY THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD AND ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OVER-
RUNNING MOISTURE POST FROPA LINGERING INTO FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A DEEP LAYER
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS EARLY FALL SEASON. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SAT & SUN MORNINGS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

BY MON & TUE...SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN WITH A PREDOMINATELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT.

DML

MARINE...
SE TO S WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THU WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THU 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THRU FRI
MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED BY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  85  75  87  73 /  30  40  20  40  60
KBPT  75  86  76  85  72 /  30  30  20  40  60
KAEX  71  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  20  40  60
KLFT  76  85  74  86  73 /  30  50  20  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$






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