Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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790
FXUS64 KLIX 140521
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN LOWERING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
NEAR FL080 MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH MOST TERMINALS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CEILINGS AROUND FL025-030 BY 03Z. ANY SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSE TO 12Z MONDAY. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...POST FRONTAL STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE
AREA TODAY HAS LED TO VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL AIDE
IN COLD AIR DRAINAGE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. I-
12 AND NORTHWARD SHOULD BE BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR LOWS WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN MISSISSIPPI POSSIBLY TOUCHING THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND
500MB HEIGHTS JUMP UP. ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH RIDGE TO
THE EAST WILL START PUMPING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THE
EVENING. BUMPED UP FCST HIGHS BY A COUPLE DEGREES EXCEPT ALONG THE
COASTLINE WHERE COOLER WATERS WILL LIMIT WARMING. BLENDED MODELS
WERE TOO COOL TODAY AND LIKELY TOO COOL FOR TMR SO THE FCST IS
CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY AND THEN THE GULF COAST MONDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SFC TROUGH IN TEXAS WILL GET PICKED UP BY THE
UPPER LOW AND WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND MS. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT MODELS SHOWING A WEAKER LOW CENTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN SYSTEM WITH STRONG
WINDS RIGHT OFF THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS AROUND 100KTS.
GFS BUFR SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THAN 24 HRS AGO WITH SB AND
MU CAPE IN THE 600-1100 J/KG RANGE.  PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE AN INCH BUT PROBABLY NOT EVEN REACH 1.5". LOW TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO AMPLE WIND SHEAR IN PLACE
WILL RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE MARGINAL IN THE SWODY3 OUTLOOK WHICH SEEMS
APPROPRIATE FOR THE EXPECTED LIMITED THREAT. AT THE LEAST WOULD GET
SOME BRIEF DOWNWARD TRANSPORT AND BRING GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH WITH SOME
OF THE ACTIVITY. KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON OF
UPWARDS OF 80 PERCENT. REGARDLESS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE VERY
PROGRESSIVE AND OUT OF THE AREA QUICKLY. TRIMMED POPS OFF SLIGHTLY
QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
TRENDS.

THE LOCAL AREA WILL THEN REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED TO THE WEST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS AND LOWS
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MEFFER

AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...AFTER 21Z SUNDAY. 11

MARINE... MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY
AND TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF AND BE REINFORCED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE PEARL RIVER AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN  = NO WEATHER
IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE   = LONG FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
        ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR
OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  33  65  53  69 /   0  10  40  80
BTR  39  68  54  72 /   0  10  40  70
ASD  35  66  54  71 /   0  10  40  80
MSY  45  67  53  72 /   0  10  40  70
GPT  36  61  52  68 /   0  10  40  80
PQL  32  61  51  70 /   0  10  30  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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