Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 300051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS DRY ADIABATIC TO A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK
AROUND 2700 FEET THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
REMAINS ELEVATED FOR LATE MAY AT 1.58 INCHES. WEAK WINDS WERE
FOUND THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE
SURFACE AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 18 KNOTS AT 46100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING LASTING 103 MINUTES
AND ASCENDING TO A HEIGHT OF 20.6 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE
BALLOON BURST NEAR LACOMBE 7 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

FOR TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. IN
FACT...EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A BATON ROUGE TO
MCCOMB LINE WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AS THIS INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE AREA...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS. A
BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING OMEGA
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE FAIRLY HIGH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
FORECAST. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FARTHER FROM THE
COAST...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR.

THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WITH DECENT LIFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PULSE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STREET FLOODING IF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION LONG ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S DURING THE
DAY AND THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF
LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOME LINGERING VORTICITY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF NATION. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION...AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE LOW FROM MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE EURO SOLUTION HAS THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON SUNDAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND STALL MORE OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT STILL
DEVELOPS THE CUT OFF LOW AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE LOW IS MUCH WEAKER AND THE RIDGE FAR MORE
DOMINANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY...THE GFS SHOWS A
COOLER AND MUCH WETTER SOLUTION AND THE EURO SHOWS A WARMER AND
MUCH DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES...AND THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT
OFF LOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF...HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. THUS...HAVE WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR EACH DAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. CONVECTION COULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...DECIDED TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR EARLY JUNE.

AVIATION...

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS...GENERALLY WITH CUMULUS
FL025-040. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN MOST CASES...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE A REPEAT
OF TODAY. 35

MARINE...

A VERY BENIGN WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK FRONT THAT SLIPS TOWARD THE TIDAL LAKES ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME WEAK LANDBREEZE
EFFECTS COULD IMPACT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE
BORGNE...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO ONSHORE BY MID-MORNING.
THIS TREND WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  86  67  84 /  20  60  40  60
BTR  70  86  69  85 /  20  60  40  60
ASD  71  86  68  85 /  20  50  30  50
MSY  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  30  60
GPT  73  85  70  85 /  20  40  30  50
PQL  69  86  68  86 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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