Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLIX 030855
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
355 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM... WELL...LOOKS LIKE THE GOOD OLE DAYS OF SUB 65
DEWPOINT DAYS ARE JUST ABOUT OVER. THE RANGE ATTM IS ABOUT 70 TO 75.
SOME MIDDAY MIXING WILL BRING THEM DOWN TO 65 TO 70 IN AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 12. THE REST OF THE WEEK HOWEVER WILL BE 70+ DEGREE
DEWPOINTS AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EXCEPT OVER COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOW MOISTURE WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING OUT OF
HAND. FOR RAIN CHANCES...HAVE KEPT MENTIONABLE POPS TO LAND AREAS
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS METRO...INCLUDING OFFSHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE
HRRR DOES INDICATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE I-10/12 CORRIDORS...DONT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE ZONE FORECAST IF IT EVEN DOES HAPPEN.

BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY WILL SOLIDIFY
INCREASING MOISTURE TREND. WITH SUCH INTENSE HEATING AS THE AREA
GETS THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ALL IT WILL TAKE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL HAVE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ON TUES.

.LONG TERM... RAIN CHANCES WILL BUMP UP SLIGHTLY AGAIN ON WED AND
THU INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL ERODE
THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL
REDUCE SUBSIDENCE AND ALLOW FOR INCREASED CONVECTION COVERAGE. COULD
ALSO SEE HIGHS DROP A COUPLE DEGREES WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING HEIGHTS.
IT LIKELY WONT BE ENOUGH TO FEEL THE DIFFERENCE THOUGH B/C DEWPOINTS
WILL BE COMING UP AT THE SAME TIME WHICH WILL BRING HEAT INDUS`S
UP TO 105 IN THE AFTN HOURS.

GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF THE END OF LAST WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE TOWARDS
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. IN THAT POSITION...THE CWA WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY WHICH WILL BE A SUITABLE LOCATION FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR UNDER A NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. AS SEEN
LAST WEEK...THAT CAN BE CONDUCIVE FOR OCCASIONALLY STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

VRF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. 18

&&

.MARINE...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND WESTERLY FLOW HAS REPLACED THE NORTHERLY FLOW. THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH FLORIDA IS EXPECTED LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER EAST GULF WHILE A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM RED               RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  98  74  98  73 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  97  76  97  75 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  97  76  94  75 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  95  79  93  78 /  10  10  30  20
GPT  95  78  92  77 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  96  75  93  75 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.