Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 172048
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
348 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...
A nice fall day across the forecast region as high pressure
remains fully in place over the eastern United States and this is
the main driver of the forecast over the short term. No rainfall
is expected through the rest of the work week...well maybe only a
slight chance of a shower Friday afternoon. Temperatures will
moderate some over the next few days. Overnight lows tonight
across the northshore will be in the upper 40s and 50s across the
southshore. Lows will be in the 50s Wednesday night...middle to
upper 50s Thursday night and into the 60s by Friday night. Daytime
temps will moderate into the 80s this week.

.LONG TERM...
Models point to a front moving through the area late Sunday into
Monday. Strong onshore flow will increase moisture across the area
this weekend. Ahead of the front showers and storms may be
possible Saturday afternoon. The best chance of rain will come on
Sunday into Monday. There is an outside shot of a few strong
storms across the forecast area Sunday into Monday...but most of
the strong dynamics will be well north of the forecast area...so
severe storms at least for the moment does not look to be a big
issue. We will have to watch this over the next few days. The GFS
and ECMWF are a little bit more in step with each other. Will
continue to carry likely pops for Sunday night into Monday
morning. There could be a few lingering showers around Monday
afternoon into Tuesday...but strong high pressure will move in
behind the front by midweek. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR through 18z taf cycle. Patchy of light fog is possible at
KHUM between 09 and 13z Wednesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Cold front was located over the Florida peninsula to central
Gulf to southwest Gulf. The front is expected to remain
stationary as the high pressure remains entrenched for the Mid
Atlantic states to Texas through the rest of the week. These
features will maintain a east to moderate southeast flow over the
coastal waters through the week. Lake Pontchartrain,
Lake Borgne and the Mississippi Sound winds should be lighter. Winds
may remain 15-20kt over the remaining waters through the week. There
will be a diurnal fluctuation each day in wind speeds with the
highest being found overnight.

Caution flags will remain over open waters south of a Lake
Pontchartrain to Mississippi Sound line tonight. A few showers will
begin to make their way back to the coastal waters by Wednesday and
should gradually begin covering more of the area through the weekend
with a few thunderstorms moving back into the forecast as early as
Friday and lasting through a possible frontal passage by Sunday
evening.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  48  78  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  50  80  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  51  80  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  60  79  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  53  79  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  48  79  52  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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