Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 132112
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
312 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure centered over the western Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon. Low pressure over southwest Wisconsin with a cold front
extending through Missouri and Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle.
Upper low over Baja California aiding moist upper flow from the
Pacific Ocean across Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico is spreading
cirrus deck across the south half of Texas toward Louisiana.
Temperatures at mid-afternoon are generally near 60 degrees with
dew points upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Surface low over Wisconsin will move off the Atlantic Coast
tomorrow, but with zonal flow across the southern states, the
associated cold front will take until overnight tomorrow night to
move through the local area. Moisture is extremely limited with
this system, and any rainfall is likely to remain limited to areas
south of Lake Pontchartrain. Baja California upper low will not
lift out toward area until late Saturday. This should keep Friday
and most of Saturday dry across the area.

Temperatures will be chilly tonight, but cirrus clouds should
hold readings above freezing, even in the normally colder areas.
Tomorrow`s highs slightly above normal. Winds associated with cold
front will promote enough mixing to keep tomorrow night`s lows
similar to tonight. Friday will be cooler than today behind the
front. Light freeze possible north of Lake Pontchartrain Saturday
morning before temperatures recover to near normal Saturday.
Trended toward middle of the pack on temperatures in the few
instances where there were significant differences in guidance
temperatures. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

Baja California upper low kicks out toward the area late Saturday
into Sunday as a northern stream trough drops into the Rockies.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with this system with
the best chances of thunder primarily south of Lake Pontchartrain.
Column is rather saturated on Sunday, but cannot rule out a few
strong storms.

Beyond Sunday, forecast confidence drops very rapidly. GFS 12z run
maintains likely POP`s through Tuesday as front hangs up near the
Louisiana coast. ECMWF 12z run on the other hand, moves the front
far enough south and east to dry out pretty much all of our land
areas. Blended guidance leans toward the ECMWF solution, but
forecast continuity and integrity with the neighbors leads me to
maintain at least chance POP`s, primarily light rain, for Monday
and Tuesday across the area before things dry out.

Above normal temperatures expected Sunday, but not quite to the
level of MAV guidance, with temperatures closer to normal for
Monday through Wednesday. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds may increase enough to approach Exercise Caution criteria in
far eastern waters tonight, but will not headline for now. Winds
relax tomorrow until front approaches and moves through late
tomorrow night into Friday, when Advisories may be necessary. Flow
quickly turns onshore Saturday night into Sunday, with Advisories
possible again. Beyond Sunday, forecast confidence rather low as
far as timing of fronts and wind shifts. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  39  63  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  40  65  39  53 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  39  66  41  54 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  46  66  45  55 /   0   0  10  20
GPT  44  64  43  55 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  40  66  41  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


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