


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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515 FXUS63 KLMK 140139 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 939 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and storms could produce a few pockets of heavy rainfall overnight, particularly across southern Indiana. Localized flooding will be possible where the heaviest rain falls. * Remaining very warm and humid for most of next week with more scattered rain and storm chances each day. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning will be the main threats. && .UPDATE... Issued at 938 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A weak upper shortwave trof continues to slowly make its way across the Ohio Valley this evening. The main wave is working into southeast Indiana as of 01Z, but the southern "tail" of the wave has hung up near the confluence of the Mississippi and the Ohio. This elongated trofiness, with plenty of lingering boundaries and an axis of PWAT exceeding 2.1 inches will remain draped across southern Indiana and into sections of Kentucky north of I-64 for much of the overnight. Collaborated with ILN on the prospect of a Flood Watch, but confidence in the intensity of rainfall was not high enough. For now we have bumped POPs up to ~80% for most of the night in southern Indiana and roughly our northern tier of central Kentucky. Locally torrential rainfall is possible and we can`t rule out pockets of flooding overnight. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The main focus for the short term will be the potential development of showers and possible strong storms later this evening and overnight. While current conditions of temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s have allowed for the atmosphere to destabilize with around 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE, we lack a trigger to get any widespread activity to fire this afternoon and early evening. While a few isolated showers and storms are possible late this afternoon and early evening, our best chance looks to be later this evening and overnight. Mid-level shortwave trough axis is orientate SW to NE, stretching from the Ozarks up into eastern IA and central WI. Ahead of this feature we have a convective complex over southern IL, with additional activity stretching into the bootheel of MO and long the Lower MS Valley. This trough axis will slowly move eastward tonight and across the Ohio Valley early tomorrow morning. Additional development is expected as a LLJ increases along the Ohio River later this evening and overnight. Shear remain weak, but we could see 20-25kts of 0-6km shear which allow for a little more organization and MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg. PWAT values will surge to above 2.00" making the main threat with these storms gusty damaging winds with localized flash flooding thanks the very deep moisture column. Current thinking is that the best chance for these stronger storms and heavy rainfall is along the Ohio River and northward from north central KY into IN. This is in line with both the WPC slight risk for Excessive Rainfall and the SPC Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms in their day 1 outlooks. Trough axis works to the east tomorrow as a weak quasi-stationary sfc boundary sags southward towards the Ohio River to start the work week. This will continue to keep us in the the very warm and muggy airmass we`ve been dealing with for the past several days. Placement of the boundary and afternoon destabilization will once again allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop late in the day. Heavy rain, lightning along with gusty winds are the main threat with the severe threat lower than the last couple of days. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The weather pattern through the rest of the week remains stagnant with more of the same. We will remain under the influence of weak ridging aloft along with continued moist and very warm airmass. Highs each day will be in the low 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s, this will feature diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours. The threat of severe storms remains low, gusty winds, lightning and torrential rainfall remain the main threats. A few weak mid-level systems will pass to our north over the Great Lakes Wed/Thu and Thu/Fri. This looks to give us an increased coverage in precipitation for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 737 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Timing and impact of convection this evening will be the main challenge in this TAF set, but this environment does not support high confidence in details of any forecast. Expect intermittent impacts as scattered storms move through, so we`ll start off with TEMPO groups for MVFR/possibly IFR vis accompanied by TS/CB. Prevailing VFR initially and through most of the night, but we`ll get MVFR stratus cigs in most sites by daybreak. HNB could even drop into IFR for part of the morning. Low clouds should break out around midday, with VFR conditions and westerly winds expected in the afternoon. Convection is possible again late in the day but confidence is too low to include in the TAF just yet. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...RAS SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...RAS