Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 290506
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
106 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IN THE NEAR TERM, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO AND THEN COOL INTO THE 70S THIS EVENING.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BEING MUCH MILDER THAN WHAT WE`VE
PREVIOUSLY SEEN.  LOWS SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EVENT WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  TWO AREAS
OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOK TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE
TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE, AND DOWN ACROSS OUR SOUTH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING IN.  OVERALL FORCING STILL LOOKS
RATHER LIMITED, BUT COVERAGE OF 15-20% LOOKS REASONABLE AND CURRENT
DATA SUGGESTS THAT FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST.  IT WILL BE A BIT
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S IN THE NORTH WITH
MID-UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.  A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SUNDAY - MONDAY...

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, AHEAD OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW
WORK WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, OVERALL DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S ON SUNDAY, CLIMBING TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD
UNDER THIS PATTERN. CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
WITH HEATING ALONE ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FORECAST DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY EVIDENT TRIGGERING
MECHANISM.

LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE TO END THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE
UNCAPPED OR WEAKLY CAPPED. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LIGHT WIND COMBINED WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL AT BWG/LEX THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MID-
MORNING ALONG WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD WITH BASES 4-5 KFT. THERE
ARE SIGNALS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A STORM
DEVELOPING BY 17-18Z...LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 23-00Z.
THOUGH...EXPECTING LOW COVERAGE WHICH PRECLUDES MENTIONING IN THE
TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........BJS
AVIATION..........ZBT



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