Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 050656

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
256 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2015

Upper level ridging will remain in place across the forecast area
today into tonight. The ridge will start to shift to the west
Tuesday with northwesterly flow setting up. At the surface high
pressure will build in from the northwest.

Dry conditions are expected through the short term period. Skies
will be partly cloudy to mostly clear. Temperatures today and
tomorrow will be similar to yesterday. They will top out in the mid
70s to around 80. Lows tonight will drop into the lower to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2015

Middle portion of the work week looks warm and dry, with fairly
healthy ridging both at the surface and aloft. Temps will flirt with
typical late summer readings, but with the surface high to our
north, the Gulf will not open up and dewpoints will be held in the

Main question mark in the long term is the timing of the upper trof
and associated cold front moving through sometime on Friday. Latest
GFS run brings it through faster than previous runs, and is 6-12 hrs
faster than the ECMWF, which is also trending slightly faster. Have
bumped POPs slightly for Thursday night, but still limit the chance
POPs to southern Indiana. Friday POPs also limited to chance across
the board. When timing becomes more clear, will bump our rain
chances higher for one period or another.

Should be a clean fropa with dry high pressure building in for the
weekend. Temps may struggle a bit on Saturday, but should be right
around climo for Sunday.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2015

The only concern for the TAFs this forecast period will be the
potential for some light fog and/or low ceilings early this morning
at BWG and LEX. Guidance is hinting at some MVFR fog at BWG and LEX.
Will put this in for BWG as winds will be light and variable.
However, winds at LEX should be a bit higher, so will keep the
forecast VFR there. Winds today will be out of the northeast around
6-8 knots. Some scattered cu will develop this afternoon.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RAS
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