Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 040800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...AREA OF 1010MB MSLP OVER WV WITH ANOTHER OVER SERN VA.
THESE ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS LIFTED NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FROM NC. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO AROUND DC TODAY WITH
THE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NORTH OF THIS TRACK/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE STABLE/NO
THUNDER TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
AT BEST. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COMING FROM WV WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH MOST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH CATEGORIAL POPS FOR LOW
QPF THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARC FROM ROUGHLY CUMBERLAND
MD TO DC AND SOUTH. THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHUNTED SOUTH OF MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNSET/FIREWORKS TIME.

BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE FRONT/LOW. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 70S
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LOW 80S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF
THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD
IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA
2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK COLD FRONT/LOW ACROSS
THE DC METROS TODAY...PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR
CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SCT TSTMS DC AND
SOUTH. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICAL SPOTS TONIGHT...THEN VFR SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SELY FLOW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING NLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUSTING OVER SRN MD WATERS. SCA FOR SRN MD WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
HAZARDS TONIGHT/SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT
BUT STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS
MAY REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ017-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.
    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
   ANZ541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR



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