Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 281450
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1050 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure builds
over the region Wednesday into Thursday. Another disturbance
will approach the area late Thursday into early Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mesolow has brought a decent coverage of showers and
thunderstorms so far today. Now the question is whether we will
get more. With rain having fallen just about everywhere and
clouds still plentiful, it has become rather stable. However,
there are some breaks of sun in central and western VA, and if
these can spread north and east and it can become unstable
again, another round of showers and thunderstorms is very
possible. However... latest guidance may be starting to lean
away from this scenario, with stability possibly dominating for
the remainder of the day and precipitation coverage ending up
more scattered than widespread.

SPC has removed marginal threat of severe from just about all of
our CWA. SREF severe probabilities imply the chances are better
across SE VA/NC than in our area, Bufkit profiles show neither
high CAPE nor shear, and this will be coming through fairly
early in the day.

Took highs down a little - we may need to reduce them a bit more
if expected breaks of sun are hard to come by.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front pushes south across the region this evening. High
pressure will be building into the area behind it later tonight
through Wednesday night. Patchy fog could develop tonight with
lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s, though if there is enough wind,
this may limit the fog potential.

Plenty of sunshine is expected Wednesday. Winds from the north
expected to gust up to 20 mph. Temperatures will top out in the
60s.

With the high to our north Wednesday night excellent radational
cooling conditions are expected. This will drop temperatures
into the 30s west of I-95.

A warm front is forecast to be well to our south Thursday. Clouds
will be increasing as the day progresses. It will be cool and
dry. Highs in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A low pressure system will be moving out of the Mississippi Valley
eastward into the Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday morning.
This will send a surge of warm and moist air advection across the
area Thursday night. While best forcing may lift north of the area,
chances for showers will be on the increase Thursday night.

The system will push to the eastern seaboard on Friday. Current
model solutions depict fairly disjointed system, but do show
potential for some consolidation/redevelopment of the surface low
downwind of the strongest upper level energy Friday night. Thus will
see highest chances of organized rainfall from Friday into Friday
night. Temperatures during this time shouldn`t see a whole lot of
diurnal variability with increased clouds/moisture/rain, generally
40s at night, 50s during the day.

The low will pull eastward away from the coast on Saturday. Could
have some lingering showers, but will see a drying trend during the
day. High pressure will build into the region by Sunday with dry
conditions. The next system will eject out of the Plains and may
approach the area early next week.

Highs generally low to mid 60s Saturday through Monday, with lows in
the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Patchy IFR conditions persist with showers at the moment.
Conditions will likely slowly lean back towards VFR at all
sites as some drier air moves in aloft. After that, another
round of showers and thunderstorms is possible mid-late
afternoon. VFR conditions expected tonight through Thursday.

Chances for sub-VFR conditions increase by Friday and continue
through Friday night with potential for low ceilings and
visibilities in rain with low pressure system crossing the region.
Conditions will improve through the day on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Isolated thunderstorms possible remainder of the day. Winds in
any storm could gust to 35 knots, though odds are low.

An SCA has been issued for tonight and Wednesday behind a cold
front. Northerly winds are expected to gust to 20 kt.

Potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions increases Thursday
night and Friday with increasing southeasterly winds ahead of an
approaching system. Winds will then turn north/northwesterly on
Saturday behind the system, with continued potential for SCA
conditions.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ530-535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/MJM/RCM



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