Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 061415
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSEASONABLY COOL THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON... NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND FLOW BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA AND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND NEW JERSEY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA
BREEZES POSSIBLE FROM NORTH BREVARD CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON PER SHORT TERM SMALL SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE
LOCAL WRFARW6.

CURRENT AFTERNOON WIND GRIDS REFLECT SEA BREEZE. MORNING ZONE UPDATE
WILL CLEAN UP WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.AVIATION...VFR. WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AIRPORTS AND
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 95 AND THE COAST FROM COCOA NORTH MAY
EXPERIENCE A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.  WINDS FALL TO LIGHT
AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...
BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE ATLANTIC AND
THE COASTAL CMAN SITES WINDS WERE AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 2 TO 3
FEET. THE NOAA BUOYS AT 20NM AND 120NM OFFSHORE WERE RECORDING 5 AND 6
FEET RESPECTIVELY.

CURRENT MARINE FORECAST PICKS UP ON A SEA BREEZE WIND IN THE
NEARSHORE MARINE ZONE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH.

MORNING UPDATE TO CLEAN UP WORDING AND BRING SEAS DOWN A FOOT OR TWO
FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SEVERAL HOURS OF RH`S BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PCT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE.  NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC
VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. 20FT WINDS FROM THE NW AT 10-15 MPH.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FRI MAY 6:
DAB  42 1940
MCO  49 1945
MLB  49 1963
VRB  52 1973

RECORD LOWS FOR SAT MAY 7:
DAB  45 1940
MCO  49 1921
MLB  53 1992
VRB  52 2013

PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

CURRENT...ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH ECFL
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WITNESSED BY WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BY A THIN CLOUD LINE. THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN DRIER/COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED ALONG
THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 50S AREAWIDE...GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SEASONAL NORMS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT TODAY AS WNW/NW WINDS INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.
THE WIND COMPONENT MAY VEER AROUND TO NNE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NO
THREAT FOR RAIN. ALOFT...A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SENDING OCNL IMPULSES
ACROSS THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 70S AREAWIDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL BELOW SEASONAL AND GENERALLY IN THE L-M
50S...EXCEPT U50S POSSIBLE ACROSS LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS OR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT WILL BRUSH THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS LATE OVERNIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY/STABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
OVER LAND.

SAT-TUE...AXIS OF THE DEEP WRN ATLC TROUGH SHIFTS EWD SAT AS THE
OMEGA BLOCK TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN. THIS ALLOWS A MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO BUILD EWD ACROSS FL FROM THE GOMEX AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER FL INTO THIS
WEEKEND KEEPING CONDS WX WARM AND DRY BUT NOT TERRIBLY HUMID. HIGH
WILL THEN SLIDE EWD WITH ITS AXIS REMAINING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH EARLY MON THEN LIFT NORTH OF CTRL FL TUE....RESULTING IN A
TREND TWD MORE HUMID CONDS. ONE MORE DAY/NIGHT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS SAT. MAXES NEAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY EXT WEEK WITH MINS RUNNING ABOUT 1-2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.
ECFL NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY ARE ABOUT 85-88F/63-66F.

WED-FRI...FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A COUPLE WEAK MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT WITH LIGHT SE/SRLY FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR A SLGT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHRA/TS BY
THU (IF NOT WED) PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WNW/NW WINDS 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS FALL TO LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...THE LATEST WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED NW WINDS 15-
20 KTS CONTINUING OVER THE OPEN ATLC...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PASS DOWN THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH WNW/NW WINDS INCREASING TOWARDS
CAUTIONARY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. SEAS STARTING 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 4 FT
OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT-TUE...NW-NRLY FLOW WILL DECREASE AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO FL
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SEAS OF 3-4FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT AS WINDS
DROP AOB 10KT. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT SRLY MON THEN BACK TO SE AND
INCREASE TO 10-15KT TUE AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTH OF CTRL FL. SEAS
OF 2-3FT MON INCREASING BACK TO 3-4FT INTO TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...SEVERAL HOURS OF RH`S BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PCT
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE.  NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE BUT THEY SHOULD
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. 20FT WINDS FROM THE NW AT
10-15 MPH.

SAT-TUE...SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED AGAIN
SAT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DRY AIR HOLD SWAY. SHALLOW LATE AFTERNOON
MODIFICATION EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST ON SUN DUE TO LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CIRC...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE WX SENSITIVITY
AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND. GRADUAL MODIFICATION CONTINUES MON ONWARD AS
S-SE FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING HIGH TAKE HOLD.

&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING IN VRB AND MLB/VRB FOR SAT
MORNING. RECORDS LOOK OUT OF REACH ELSEWHERE.

RECORD LOWS FOR FRI MAY 6:
DAB  42 1940
MCO  49 1945
MLB  49 1963
VRB  52 1973

RECORD LOWS FOR SAT MAY 7:
DAB  45 1940
MCO  49 1921
MLB  53 1992
VRB  52 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  56  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  77  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  77  58  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  78  56  79  60 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  77  56  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  77  56  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  78  59  81  63 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  78  54  79  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX/DSS....KELLY



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