Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 240842
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
442 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Today...Deep layer high pressure, at the sfc and aloft, will
remain over the area. This will keep the atmosphere suppressed
with warm temps aloft, around +10C at 700 mb and -5C at 500 mb.
However, the low level ridge axis has shifted south in the last
24 hrs and is now located across cent FL. This places the best
moisture convergence (on the north side of a ridge) across our
northern sections so this is where the highest PoPs (40 percent)
are drawn. The west coast sea breeze should push inland faster
across the north sparking scattered showers and perhaps a few
storms during the afternoon. The east coast sea breeze will also
develop with quicker inland penetration across the south so rain
chances will be lowest along the immediate Treasure coast. A
collision should occur this evening (6-9 pm) east of the I 4
corridor but inland from the coast, resulting in the best chance
for a band of deep convection. Steering flow will be weak so storm
motions should be driven largely by propagation along boundaries.
This will promote locally heavy rain esp assocd with boundary
collisions. Highs will reach the low 90s interior with a few mid
90s possible and upper 80s at the coast.

Lingering showers and isolated storms should persist across
northern sections late into the evening and possibly into the
overnight.

Sunday...The center of the deep ridge begins to shift into the
Atlantic as a mid/upper level trough develops over the eastern CONUS
and its associated frontal boundary moves toward north Florida.
Moisture pooling ahead of the weak front should enhance shower and
storm chances a bit compared to Saturday, though the lingering ridge
aloft will still keep things somewhat suppressed. Initial isolated
activity expected to develop along the sea breeze before showers and
storms become scattered across inland areas. Lowest chances (20-30%)
confined to the Space and Treasure Coasts where the sea breeze will
move inland quicker. Expect the best chance (50%) for storms along
the I-4 corridor later in the day as boundary interactions
intensify. Steering motion appears quite weak, so excessive rainfall
is a concern with some of the mid/late afternoon activity.

Monday-Tuesday...Deep moisture pooling along and ahead of the
surface boundary combined with added instability aloft courtesy of
the trough will lead to high afternoon shower/storm coverage both
afternoons. While the focus for the highest rain chances will remain
over inland areas, expect shower and storms to develop closer to the
coast. Steering flow appears to remain quite weak, so will need to
watch for heavy rain in some areas. While cloud cover may limit
surface destabilization, cooling aloft should still enhance the
threat for a few strong storms with frequent lightning and gusty
winds. Increase cloud cover will temper highs closer to their late
June averages, upper 80s most areas.

Wednesday-Friday...The surface boundary is expected to wash out over
the area as high pressure builds to our north. Onshore flow will
commence from mid to late week with moisture levels remaining high
enough to support a scattered coverage of showers and storms. Though
the highest coverage of afternoon activity will be across inland
areas, the elevated maritime flow should support onshore-moving
showers from time to time.


&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR through 12Z then patchy MVFR CIGs possible 13Z-16Z MCO
north but confidence is low so will not mention in TAFs. Scattered
TSRA should develop this afternoon focused on northern terminals
(MCO/SFB/DAB) where moisture is higher. A late day/early evening
(22Z-24Z) sea breeze collision should occur near or to the east
of MCO/SFB. Will refrain from adding a TEMPO group for now and
maintain VCTS for the next TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Atlc ridge axis draped across central FL and adjacent Atlc
will produce a southerly flow turning SE near the coast in a sea
breeze this afternoon. A small (2 ft) east swell will be the
primary contribution to wave height in addition to a small wind
chop. Combined seas up to 4 ft well offshore (beyond 20 nm)
Volusia and Brevard coasts.

Sunday-Wednesday...Atlantic high pressure will shift to the east of
the area as a weak front approaches and stalls over the waters early
next week. Winds will remain 10 knots or less outside of
thunderstorms, with seas generally 2-3 ft. Higher coverage of
showers and storms expected, especially Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  90  75 /  40  20  40  30
MCO  93  75  91  75 /  40  20  50  30
MLB  90  76  90  76 /  20  10  30  20
VRB  90  75  89  75 /  20  10  20  20
LEE  92  76  91  75 /  40  40  50  40
SFB  93  75  91  75 /  40  20  50  30
ORL  92  76  91  75 /  40  20  50  30
FPR  90  74  89  75 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Ulrich



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