Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 191958
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
258 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
...Temperatures Will Remain Above Normal through Late Week...

TONIGHT-TUE...
Stout deep layer high pressure centered offshore the southeastern
seaboard is producing a low-mid level southeast wind flow. A few
pockets of higher moisture are shown rotating around this high.
One was presently affecting the southern peninsula and another is
forecast overnight, again mainly over the southern peninsula. The
models only generate very low precip amounts mainly just south of
Martin county. Will carry a small shower chance there the rest of
the afternoon for a few spots along the Space/Treasure Coast. But
MOS PoPs for the second moisture pocket overnight are too low to
include in the forecast.

Overnight lows will be more mild due to the onshore flow, mainly mid
60s inland/north coast and around 70 from south Brevard to the
Treasure Coast.  A few spots may have record warm lows for Tue.

On Tue, the GFS shows the pocket of higher moisture lifting
northwestward and affecting the west side of the peninsula.  The
model only spits out a little precip west of our area late in the
day, so will go with a dry forecast locally. It will continue
warm and be even a little more humid as southeast flow boosts dew
points into the mid-upper 60s. High temperatures will reach the
mid 80s inland and lower 80s along the coast.

WED-THU...
Highly amplified H30-H20 jet pattern with the lifting portion
extending from the Central Plains to Hudson Bay is not conducive
to a rapid pattern shift. Indeed, the core of the jet is too far
to the NW to even nudge the axis of an H100-H70 high pressure
ridge over the W Atlc into the central Atlc. As such, this ridge
will remain in place through midweek, keeping the lcl airmass well
capped while maintaining a deep lyr SErly flow. Sat/RAP40
analysis shows marginal low/mid lvl moisture upstream extending
east of the srn Bahamas and regional H85-H70 lapse rates AOB
4.0C/KM.

Minimal PoPs outside of brief, isold low-topped shras in the Gulf
Stream. Fcst will remain dry. Warm/moist ocean air will keep temps
abv avg...max temps generally in the L/M80s...min temps M/U60s.

EXTENDED...(modified prev disc)
The mid level ridge is forecast to weaken and retrograde W/SW
into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. A persistent east to
southeast wind flow will keep temperatures above avg with upper
70s along the immediate coast to the mid 80s inland. While warm,
record highs in the M/U80s generally look out of reach. There will
be a better chance for a few record warm Min temps along the
coast due to the persistent onshore flow...mins from the M/U60for
the present small area of isolated showers.s along the coast to
the L60s inland. Breezy E/SE flow will occasionally produce a few
showers over the Atlc that cross portions of the coast, but
overall rain chances look quite low with QPF no greater than
0.10". Will handle this with a silent 10 percent PoP. The primary
weather hazard will be patchy dense fog in the early mornings over
the interior.

There is no indication at this time of significant cold air
intrusion before the end of the month. This may result in a record
warm February for some locations in central Florida, such as Orlando
and Melbourne.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with breezy E/ESE winds this afternoon especially
from VRB-SUA.  For tonight a brief broken MVFR ceiling of 2000-2500
ft AGL cannot be ruled out along the coast as marine stratocu move
ashore.  Inland areas should remain VFR with the exception of KLEE
where MVFR visibilities and ceilings are expected late tonight into
early Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUE...Quite strong high pressure over the Atlantic with
an axis extending into the southeast U.S. is producing a
freshening east-southeast low level wind flow. Speeds are
forecast 10-15 knots except over the cooler northern shelf waters
(5-10 knots) and over the Gulf Stream (15-20 knots) where an
exercise caution statement will be necessary. The wave models show
3-4 feet seas nearshore and 4-5 offshore but with a pronounced
wind chop (5-6 second wave periods).

WED-FRI...The axis of the Atlc high pres ridge will remain draped
over north FL from mid to late week, generating a gentle to
moderate E/SE breeze with ocnl gusts in the 15-20KT range. Models
still hinting a brief window of of sustains 20KT winds off the
Treasure Coast late Tue aftn/Tue evng. Duration appears too short
to warrant a Small Craft Advisory at this time...probably will be
able to handle with a short term Caution headline. Seas 3-5FT thru
Wed evng, building to 5-6FT in the Gulf Stream by daybreak Thu as
the persistent erly flow begins to push increasing swells into
the east FL coast. Brief, isold shras at best.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record warm minimum temps and year set for February 20, 21, and 22.

   February 20             February 21      February 22

Daytona Beach 66-1961        68-1989          69-2008
Orlando Intl  69-1961        68-1989          69-1945
Sanford       68-1961        66-2002          68-2008
Melbourne     68-1961        70-1989          69-2003
Vero Beach    72-1961        72-1961          73-1961
Ft. Pierce    73-1961        73-1961          73-1961

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  80  66  81 /  10  10  10   0
MCO  67  84  66  86 /  10  10   0   0
MLB  71  82  69  81 /  10  10  10   0
VRB  71  83  70  81 /  10  10  10   0
LEE  67  85  66  86 /  10  10  10   0
SFB  66  84  66  85 /  10  10  10   0
ORL  66  84  66  86 /  10  10  10   0
FPR  70  82  70  80 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lascody
MID-LONG TERM...Bragaw
AVIATION...Combs


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