Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 020105
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
9 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING AT EAST CENTRAL FL
BEACHES...
...INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED INTO MID
WEEK...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNWORKED
OVER AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADARS INDICATING THE MOST OF THE
INTERIOR ENVELOPED WITH CLOUDINESS AND LARGE AREAS OF RAIN AND
SCATTERED STORMS. MID LEVEL...500MB...TROUGH TRACKING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES CONSIDERABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL HAVE TO ISSUE AN UPDATE TO
REMOVE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
CLOUD COVER.

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY VFR SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
OR ONCE PRECIP ENDS.

.MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND
3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS WITH A 2 TO 3 FOOT 9 TO 11 SECOND PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AS TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTHEAST U.S. OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSS

CURRENT-TONIGHT...DEEP LAYERING MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE ONGOING
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.80 INCHES FORECAST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C WITH DECENT
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AT 250 MB. SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING OVER THE FL
PENINSULA TODAY WILL EMERGE OFF OF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
PRODUCING ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE OUTFLOWS THAT WILL COLLIDE WITH ONE
ANOTHER AS WELL AS WITH SMALL-SCALE LAKE BREEZES TO CONTINUE
PRODUCING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUING
INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING INLAND FROM
THE EAST COAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SLIGHT WESTWARD DRIFT
PRESENTLY BUT WITH THE OVERALL WEAK WIND PROFILE EXPECT SLOW/ERRATIC
MOVEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGER BOUNDARY
COLLISION WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PENINSULA BETWEEN BOTH
EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW LOCAL STRONG
STORMS LIKELY WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 50
MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALL IN PLAY.

SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.
ACTIVITY WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD DEBRIS
SLOWLY ERODING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL STILL HANG ONTO A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
U60S/L70S.

TUE...INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY. ASSOCIATED TROUGHING/MID-LEVEL ENERGY
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A 250MB JET STREAK (60-70 KNOTS) IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSE INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BRINGING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. COMBINED WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-10C AT 500 MB)...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE
HIGH WITH 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCES AREAWIDE. EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS
WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY...THOUGH UNUSUALLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL STILL PROVIDE A THREAT OF AT LEAST A
FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW
REMAINS RELATIVELY POOR SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL
REMAIN. M80S FOR HIGHS ALONG THE COAST WITH U80S STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

WED-SUN...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD AS A
GENUINE SHIFT IN THE LCL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT HOW THAT PATTERN SHIFT WILL
MANIFEST ITSELF. GFS MID RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING
ANY SIG RIDGING WELL E OF THE BAHAMAS AS THE SRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LVL FRONTAL TROF PINCHES OFF INTO A CUTOFF OVER THE SE
CONUS...AND INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES DVLPG IN THE VCNTY OF
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND LIFTING NE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS FRI-SAT.

WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH RAIN CHANCES LOWERING
BACK TO NEAR CLIMO (SCATTERED) POPS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...THE ECSB PUSHING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE COAST INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO THE
INTERIOR THRU LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. MERGER BETWEEN BOTH EAST/WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES LIKELY WEST OF LAKE COUNTY...DUE TO
SLOWER PROPAGATION INLAND THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. SLOW MOVEMENT
OF CELLS WITH STRONG GUST POTENTIAL/SMALL HAIL/LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALL POSSIBLE. VFR OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO LATE EVENING AND CLOUD
DEBRIS SLOWLY BREAKING UP OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A
HIGH CLOUD BLANKET WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SW. WINDS
FALLING TO LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT ESE/SE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS VEERING TO S OR SSW
OVERNIGHT. 3-4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT IN A
DECREASING ERLY SWELL. STILL AT LEAST AN ISOLD THREAT FOR A STORM OR
TWO ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL/NEAR SHORE ATLC WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING. A SCHC FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

TUE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR EAST CENTRAL FL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS LIGHT WITH S/SSE WINDS MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS 2-
3 FT. WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

WED-FRI...WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL
ATLC FOR WED WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS BCMG ERLY THU WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRI UP TO 15 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS MAY PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 4
FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  85  68  83 /  20  70  40  50
MCO  71  87  69  87 /  40  70  40  50
MLB  71  85  69  84 /  20  70  40  50
VRB  71  85  67  85 /  20  60  40  50
LEE  73  87  71  88 /  40  70  40  50
SFB  71  86  68  87 /  30  70  40  50
ORL  72  86  70  87 /  40  70  40  50
FPR  69  84  68  84 /  20  60  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...MOSES
FORECASTS...WIMMER



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