Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 270837
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
VERY DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERHEAD WITH KTBW/KJAX/KTAE RAOBS
MEASURING PWAT VALUES ARND 0.2". HIGH PRES OVER THE GOMEX WILL
GENERATE A STRONG NW FLOW ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/FL PENINSULA WHILE A
SECOND RIDGE DIVING OUT OF THE PLAINS PUSHES A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THRU THE STATE. SFC WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE MID ATLC INTERACTS WITH THE GOMEX RIDGE TO PRODUCE A
TIGHT PGRAD ACRS THE REGION.

DESPITE FULL SUN...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERATED BY THE NW
FLOW WILL KEEP AFTN MAX TEMPS 5-10F BLO AVG WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE M60S ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE L70S ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST. PGRAD WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...ALLOWING THE NW SFC WINDS TO DIMINISH. MEANWHILE...THE
PERSISTENT NW WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY SIG MOISTURE ADVECTION AS
THEY TAP A DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT THAT WILL PUSH MIN TEMPS 10-15F
BLO AVG. W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL SEE READINGS FALL INTO THE
U30S/L40S...WHILE E OF I-95 THE MODIFYING EFFECTS OF THE ATLC WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE L/M40S.

FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE HIGH
POSITION WILL PRODUCE A NORTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY...WITH LITTLE
OCEAN MODIFICATION. MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED COOLER SINCE YESTERDAY
WITH LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH. THE DRYNESS
OF THE AIR WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF CANAVERAL WHERE THE GFS SHOWS SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS.

FRI NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY BACKED TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
BUT FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
AN OVERALL SLOW MODERATION OF LOW TEMPS. SOME LOWER 40S SHOULD
STILL OCCUR IN LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA BUT MID 40S EXPECTED
OVER THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. COASTAL SECTIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPE
WILL STAY 50 OR ABOVE.

WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL ELONGATE SEAWARD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL TO WEAKLY RIDGED. THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHEAST
WINDS SAT TO VEER TO THE EAST ON SUN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SAT WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL
KEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY MENTIONABLE COASTAL
POPS...BUT A LITTLE MORE MARINE STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY.

MON-NEXT THU...STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
OUR NORTH. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TUE WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED SO ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CONSENSUS MOS SHOWS SMALL CHANCES FROM MON-WED
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT MENTION THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WINDS: THRU 27/16Z...W/NW AOB 5KTS. BTWN 27/16Z-27/23Z...NW
12-15KTS WITH G18-22KTS. AFT 27/23Z...W/NW 5-8KTS.

CIGS/VSBYS: THRU 28/12Z...VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TODAY AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE LCL ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE WED
FROPA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW SFC/BNDRY LYR BREEZE WILL FRESHEN TO
15-20KTS NEARSHORE AND 20-25KTS OFFSHORE. SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NWD...6-8FT ELSEWHERE. SEAS
BCMG TREACHEROUS AFT SUNSET AS DOMINANT PDS SHORTEN FROM ARND 9SEC
TO 6-7SEC DUE TO THE OPPOSING NRLY WIND/SRLY GULF STREAM.

FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION...SO WILL
EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH 4 PM.

WEEKEND-MON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE TO
NORTH FLORIDA OR SOUTH GEORGIA. THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE AXIS
TO THE LOCAL WATERS LOOKS TO BE ON SAT...SO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
EASE...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE FORECAST.
THEN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO OSCILLATE
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD ON MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  43  61  44 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  67  39  63  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  68  42  65  48 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  70  42  67  51 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  65  37  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  66  39  63  45 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  66  39  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  70  43  67  50 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....LASCODY



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