Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 041939
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT...SPORADIC LATE MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA HAS WEAKENED SOME SINCE 17Z/1PM. ELSEWHERE...THE
ECSB HAS BEEN MOSTLY INACTIVE SAVE FOR A FEW EARLIER CELLS OVER SE
MARTIN CO. EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TS TO REMAIN ALONG/NORTH OF LAKE KISM/KTIX WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY
TO THE S/E. A FEW CELLS MAY LINGER PAST SUNSET OWING TO COLLISION
BETWEEN BTWN THE LARGER SCALE OUTFLOW BDRY NEAR ISM-EVB AND THE ECSB.
WILL RUN WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE UP THERE

WED-THU...ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SRN CWA NORTH OF LAKE. A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITH ANY BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. HAVE POPS RANGING AROUND 30-40 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST AND 40-50 PERCENT INLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK W/SW STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE CLIMO. MAXES AROUND
90F ALONG THE COAST AND 92-95F INLAND. MINS L-M70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHIFTING FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE HELPS DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC THAT LIFTS N/NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH TRAILING
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.
THIS BOUNDARY AND LINGERING U/L TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN COAST WILL
SHIFT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD AND LEAD TO A DEEPER OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. LOW LEVEL W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE JUST WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM EACH AFT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED WITH
LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFT AND PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION.
ANY STORMS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT INTERACT WHERE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOW 90S MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD TS PUSHING ACROSS THE ISM-MCO-SFB-DAB CORRIDOR
ATTM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH TIX-MLB AROUND 21-22Z...BUT
MAY NOT DEVELOP MUCH FARTHER SOUTH TWD THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS
FROM VRB-SUA. SHOULD QUIET DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT BY 00Z. SCT
TS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW...PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER OVERALL COVERAGE
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SRN COASTAL AERODROMES (MLB-SUA).

&&

.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN INVOF FORT PIERCE ST LUCIE INLETS
THROUGH THU...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTHWARD FRI-SUN. FLOW REMAINS
BLO 15KT AS IT BACKS SLIGHTLY...BUT REMAINS S-SSW WITH AN ONSHORE
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. WINDS FRESHEN OUT OF THE SSW
AND SW STARTING FRI...WITH SPEEDS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL BRIEFLY
GETTING UP TO AROUND 15KT THU-FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS
IN THE 1-3FT RANGE. BETTER CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  74  92 /  20  30  20  40
MCO  76  93  75  93 /  20  40  30  50
MLB  75  90  76  91 /  20  40  20  40
VRB  74  91  75  91 /  20  40  20  40
LEE  76  92  76  93 /  20  40  20  40
SFB  76  93  76  93 /  20  40  30  50
ORL  76  93  77  93 /  20  40  30  50
FPR  72  91  75  91 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...LASCODY


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