Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 130030
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
830 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...A FEW CELLS HAVE PERSISTED THIS EVENING AND SOME
COULD LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AS POCKETS OF INSTABILITY AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PERSIST.

THEREAFTER WE WILL REMAIN IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW REGIME WITH
THE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.  THE
ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVELS IS WEAK THOUGH SO ATLANTIC
SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY ENCROACH ON THE TREASURE COAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  FARTHER NORTH THE STEERING WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH SO
ATLANTIC ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. NOT PLANNING MUCH
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.

SUN (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TOMORROW WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING. GFS PW VALUES SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN
EARLIER START OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FROM THE CAPE
NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE GENERAL TREND OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG THE COAST FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THIS ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT.  A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR FROM ABOUT KVRB-KSUA DURING THE
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS COULD ALSO
AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE SUN
MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD AFFECT
COASTAL TAFS.  THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE INLAND TERMINALS
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT/SUN...THE GRADIENT WIND WILL CONTINUE RATHER LIGHT...10
KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS. THERE ALSO
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS DUE TO THIS MOIST AND LIGHT WIND
FLOW REGIME.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...MOSES





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