Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 260815
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...THE FRONTAL BAND OF CLOUDINESS HAS STALLED JUST SE OF
THE TREASURE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S
AND CLOSE TO THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS WHERE
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY OCCUR THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO VEER FROM THE N/NE TO ENE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
MOISTURE LVLS PROGD IN THE H9-H8 LAYER SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDINESS TO
MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND SRN SECTIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. FARTHER NORTH...NAM
INDICATES SLOWER NWD PROGRESSION OF CLOUDINESS AND BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO WILL GO MORE OPTIMISTIC ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE ALSO HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH ANY SHOWERS
FROM THE ATLC AND WILL JUST INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE FROM MARTIN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP
LAND AREAS DRY. HIGHS TODAY WILL IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO MID-UPPER
70S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE
KEEPING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. NAM INDICATES
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH WITH LIGHT NNE LOW LVL FLOW INLAND
AND PLENTIFUL LOW LVL MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT
STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FL. WILL CONTINUE FCST
WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST AND AREAS OF FOG INLAND. LOWS 50S
INTERIOR AND N CSTL TO LOWER TO MID 60S FOR SPACE AND TREASURE COAST.

SAT-SUN....LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLOWLY SLIDES
SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT BOTH MORNING AS LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKE FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BOTH DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

MON-THU...MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FIRST
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN US ON MONDAY. NEXT
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE MON NIGHT AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO FLORIDA
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH. THE ECMWF WITH ITS STRONGER AND LOWER
LATITUDE SURFACE LOW BRING THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY BUT WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
THAN THE SLOWER AND WEAKER GFS. A CONSENSUS OF BOTH PUTS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT-WED BY WHICH EVEN THE
SLOWER GFS HAS THE FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO S FLORIDA. DRIER
DAY ON THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH A FEW AROUND 80 MON AND TUES. A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED AND THURS WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTN. EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS E CENTRAL FL TERMINALS MAINLY
AFT 27/06Z AND WILL INCLUDE ON 12Z TERMINAL PACKAGE. 00Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON -SHRA CHCS FOR TODAY...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
N/NE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO NE/ENE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS UP TO 10-12 KNOTS WITH SEAS NEAR 3 FT.

SAT-SUN...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST ON
SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING SOUTH OVER THE FL PENINSULA ON
SUNDAY. PREVAILING EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL BE
IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...VEERING SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY WITH THE MOVEMENT
OF THE RIDGE AXIS THOUGH WINDS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WILL LIKELY
STILL HAVE A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT.

THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL PUSH A SMALL SWELL INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.
WAVE WATCH IS PICKING UP ON EXTREMELY LONG PERIODS IN EXCESS OF
16-18 SEC WORKING IN WITH THE SWELL TRAIN BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS +15SEC CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. COMBINED SEAS OF
2-3FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD TO
3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AS THE SWELL MOVES INTO
THE AREA. IF LONGER PERIODS PAN OUT COULD SEE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
AT INLETS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK.

MON-WED...WINDS VEER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO N FLORIDA ON MONDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO VEER WEST MON
NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE REGION. SECONDARY BOUNDARY WILL BRING A
MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINDS UP
TO AT LEAST 10-15KTS...PERHAPS 15-20KTS IF STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS
PREVAIL.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE MONDAY...BECOMING 2-3FT OVER
ALL THE WATERS TUES AND WED. WIND SURGE WILL DRIVE UP SEAS TO 4-5FT
WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS TO 45-50 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
LOW DISPERSION AND HIGH LVORI VALUES TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR LATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  57  78  64 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  76  58  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  75  63  81  68 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  77  63  82  65 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  72  55  79  64 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  74  58  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  75  59  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  77  64  81  65 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....MOSES






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