Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 231254
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
854 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WET LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES...

REGIONAL CONDITIONS SHOW VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP CONVECTION TODAY. THE LTST SOUNDING FROM XMR/TBW SHOW MOISTURE
DEPTH HAS INCREASED OVER PAST 24H WITH NR TWO INCHES PWAT IN PLACE.
SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING ON THE XMR DATA IS ALSO EVIDENT. A VEERING
PROFILE FROM 0-1KM ALONG WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER
WILL PROMOTE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN DEVELOPING
CELLS.

MARGINAL HEATING SHOULD BE OVERCOME BY THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATE. CURRENT 70 PCT COVERAGE IS REASONABLE WITH
SCT THUNDER AND POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE RAISED
EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES.
BRINGING BASIN QPF FROM MORNING THROUGH 00Z TO AROUND 0.75 TO AN
INCH . WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOME SENSITIVE AREAS FOR NUISANCE
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

PREV DISC...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
HAS PRETTY MUCH MERGED WITH THE FRONT TO THE NORTH...WHICH HAS NOW
SAGGED SWD INTO THE SAME GENERAL REGION. LIGHT SE TO SRLY FLOW IS
STILL IN PLACE ALONG THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WELL TO THE NE OF FL. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
THE SERN SEABOARD...ACROSS NORTH FL AND INTO THE NERN GOMEX. LOCAL
RADAR MOSAIC PRECIP FREE ACROSS ECFL...WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS
WELL TO THE NORTH...SW AND SE...SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS OF LATE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE AT THE SURFACE OR
ALOFT AS BOTH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAY
IN PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A WEAK SURFACE WAVE FORMING OVER
NORTH FL ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND SLIDING NE UP THE ERN
SEABOARD BY TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...VERY HIGH MEAN PWATS SPELL
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING SOME URBAN TYPE FLOODING PROBLEMS
IN SOME AREAS. HAVE PAINTED A 70 FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CLOUDS/PRECIP
WILL LIKELY HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 1-2F BELOW CLIMO...BUT STILL
M-U80S FOR ALL AREAS. SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS FOR
THIS EVENING GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR A LITTLE BEFORE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS DURING THE MORNING WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
BASES AND LIKELIHOOD OF CIGS NR FL 030-040FT AFT 15Z. OCNL MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TS DURING EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...(PREV DISC) BUOY OBS SHOW LIGHT SE-ESE WINDS BELOW 10KT
WITH SEAS 1-2FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 TO PERHAPS 3FT WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. CONDS UNLIKELY TO SHOW MUCH CHANGE OVER THE NEXT H24 GIVEN
THE STAGNANT PATTERN SFC AND ALOFT. MAIN MARINE CONCERN WILL REMAIN
THE HIGH COVERAGE OF OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AHPS DATA SHOWS THE LATEST STAGE HEIGHT AT SHINGLE
CREEK AT CAMPBELL 57.24FT WITH A CONTINUED SLOW FALL (ACTION STAGE
58.00FT). THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR WAS 2.34FT AND REMAINING
STEADY (ACTION STAGE 2.50FT). WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE SITES
CLOSELY GIVEN THE FORECAST OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND GENEROUS
AREAL-AVERAGED QPF (0.60 TO 0.70 THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ABOUT 0.25
TO 0.50" EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL 24-HOUR PERIODS).

THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT
INVARIABLY FALL IN STRONGER CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THESE LOCATIONS
WITH 2-3+ RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/DKW/PG





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