Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 030816
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
416 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TROFFING ALONG THE SERN SEABOARD THAT HAS
SPLIT THE H100-H70 ATLC RIDGE IN THE VCNTY OF THE NRN BAHAMAS. WRN
PORTION DRAPED OVER THE ERN GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH...ERN EXTENSION HAS
RETREATED JUST E OF THE BAHAMA BANK...RESULTING IN A WEAK W/SW FLOW
THRU THE H100-H70 LYR. MID/UPR LVLS ARE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BTWN KFMY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...RESULTING IN A
STRONG WRLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW. THIS RIDGE HAS ALL BUT SQUASHED THE
H85-H30 VORT FIELD AND HAS LEFT THE H30-H20 LYR FLOW LARGELY
NEUTRAL.

MOISTURE PROFILE ACRS THE REGION SHOWS H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
LARGELY BTWN 70-80PCT. A SLUG OF MID LVL DRY AIR HAS LEFT THE H85-
H50 LYR WITH MEAN RH BLO 40PCT...BUT CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE TROF
TO THE N AND THE RIDGE TO THE S SHOULD SHUNT THIS INTO THE ATLC
WHILE TAPPING HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE ERN GOMEX. NO DISTINCT
CONCENTRATION OF THE DEEP LYR MOISTURE ON THE 00Z KTBW RAOB...
MOISTURE PROFILE OFF THE 00Z KXMR RAOB IS QUITE DRY AS WELL. TEMP
PROFILE SHOWS A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL/S FL WITH H70 TEMPS
BTWN 10C-11C...H50 TEMPS BTWN -5C/-6C...RESULTING IN LAPSE RATES
BTWN 5.5-6.0C/KM.

THE DEEP WRLY FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THE E FL COAST WILL BE FAVORED
FOR DIURNAL PRECIP...BUT THE LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND THE THERMAL
RIDGING OVERHEAD SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY LOW COVERAGE
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY DIURNAL HEATING AND MESOSCALE BNDRY COLLISIONS.
DEEP LYR MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE THRU THE DAY...BUT TOTAL STORM
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN BLO 50PCT. STORMS SHOULD CONSUME MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY BY SUNSET...LINGERING PRECIP ENDING ARND 02Z.

WARM W/SWRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE L/M90S. SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE L/M70S SUGGEST MIN TEMPS ON THE SAME ORDER.

FRI...DESTABILIZATION ASCD LARGELY WITH UPR WAVE MOVING SWD FROM
THE MID ATLC SEABOARD WL LEAD TO SCT TO NMRS AFTN AND EVE
SHOWERS/STORMS. W-NW STEERING LEVEL WINDS WL BECOME MORE PREVALENT
WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALOFT AND SUITABLE MOISTURE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY FORCED STORMS ONCE HEATING BEGINS. LIKELY
COVERAGE WL BE WORDED AREA WIDE WITH THE EAST SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA FAVORED FOR STORMS DUE MAINLY TO FAVORABLE STEERING
LEVEL WINDS.

SAT-MON...WAVEFORM AT MID LEVELS INITIALLY JUST NORTH OF AREA WL
BECOME PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE REGIONALLY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
LTST GUID FROM GFS AND TO SOME DEGREE ECM SHOW MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
WITH DIGGING SWD OF FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. PRESENCE OF
FEATURE JUST UPSTREAM WL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HEATING/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN SEASONAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS. CLOUD COVER TO SOME DEGREE MAY HINDER OR DELAY
ONSET OF DAILY STORMS AND THAT WL BE A MAIN WILDCARD IN
DETERMINING COVERAGE POTENTIAL. LIGHT TO MODEST STEERING LEVEL
WLYS WL NATURALLY FAVOR THE E SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF ONGOING STORMS WELL INTO THE EVENING.

EXTENDED...UPR TROUGH/LOW OVER THE GULF IS ADVERTISED WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH ATLC RIDGE LARGELY EAST OF THE AREA. THE LARGE
SCALE SETUP REGIME WITH THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR AT THE MENTION
OF MID RANGE SCATTERED PCPN CHCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 03/12Z

SFC WINDS: THRU 03/14Z...S/SW ARND 3KTS. BTWN 03/14Z-03/17Z...S/SW
6-9KTS. BTWN 03/16Z-03/19Z...BTWN KTIX-KSUA BCMG E/SE 8-11KTS...
W/NW 6-9KTS ELSEWHERE. BTWN 03/23Z-04/03Z...BCMG W/SW 3-6KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 03/16Z...PREVAILING VFR WITH LCL IFR VSBYS DUE
TO BR KVRB/KFPR/KSFB...CIGS AOA FL120. BTWN 03/16Z-03/24Z...CHC MVFR
SHRAS/IFR TSRAS...SLGT CHC LIFR TSRAS S OF KVRB-KOBE...STORM MOTION
E/SE ARND 10-15KTS. BTWN 04/00Z-04/02Z...SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS S OF
KMLB-KGIF.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS AS A WEAK TROF ALONG
THE SERN SEABOARD/NE FL COMBINES WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF A WEAK
ATLC RIDGE TO GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SW BREEZE OVER THE LCL
ATLC. WINDS BCMG E/SE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTN AS THE SEABREEZE
DVLPS. SEAS AOB 2FT...UP TO 3FT IN THE GULF STREAM N OF SEBASTIAN
INLET.

WINDS WL BECOME VRBL FRIDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES TO N/CENTRAL
FL. OTHERWISE VARIABLE WIND TO OFFSHORE COMPONENT THIS WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KTS WITH SEAS NR 2FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RATHER LIGHT SFC WIND PROFILE. LCL CONDITIONS WL BE INTERRUPTED AT
TIMES BY LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  92  74 /  30  10  50  30
MCO  94  75  93  74 /  30  10  60  30
MLB  92  74  93  74 /  40  20  60  30
VRB  93  73  90  71 /  40  20  60  30
LEE  92  75  93  75 /  30  10  50  30
SFB  94  76  93  75 /  30  10  60  30
ORL  94  77  93  76 /  30  10  60  30
FPR  93  73  91  71 /  40  20  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST


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