Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 270731
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
LCL PGRAD WILL SLACKEN AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO LIFT UP
THE WRN ATLC. IN ITS WAKE...AN H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO NUDGE ITS WAY EWD...WHILE THE BERMUDA RIDGE
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LIFTS BACK NWD INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/FL
STRAITS.

THE FL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY STRONG
THERMAL RIDGE: H70 TEMPS AOA 12C...H50 TEMPS AOA -3C. DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AS WELL WITH H85-H50 MEAN RH AOB 30PCT...H40-H20 AOB
20PCT. H100-H85 RH VALUES BTWN 80-90PCT REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLD
SHRAS TO FORM IN THE DEEP ONSHORE FLOW...BUT THE THERMAL CAP ALOFT
WILL LIMIT VERTICAL GROWTH TO AOB 20KFT. DEEP CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE FCST. WILL KEEP TOTAL COVERAGE BLO 20PCT AS THE WEAKENING
PGRAD ALLOWS H85-H50 NE STEERING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO ARND 10KTS.

LOW CLOUD COVER/PRECIP CHANCES WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS
TO GENERATE GOOD HEATING CONDITIONS...AFTN TEMPS IN THE L/M90S. SFC
WNDS BCMG LGT/VRBL AFT MIDNIGHT...BUT EXPECT OVERNIGHT MINS TO HOLD
IN THE L/M70S AS THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE L70S.

THU-FRI...
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW
PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS THU THE SPREADING NORTH
ON FRI. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL WARM AT -4 TO -6C THUS SHOWERS
A BETTER CALL WITH ISOLATED THUNDER AT THE BEST.

SAT-TUE...
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL OFF TO AROUND -8C WHILE THE
DEPTH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCH UPWARD. INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS MVFR SHRAS THRU 28/12Z...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LCL PGRAD HAS SLACKENED OVER THE PAST SVRL HRS...
DATA BUOYS/C-MAN STATIONS SHOW NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO ARND
15KTS THOUGH LONG PD SWELLS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE.

TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO
MOVE N/NE INTO W ATLC. WEAK HI PRES OVR THE DEEP/MID SOUTH WILL NOSE
ITS WAY EWD WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
BUILDS BACK ACRS THE BAHAMAS/FL STRAITS. NE BREEZE WILL DIMINISH TO
ARND 10KTS BY SUNSET...BCMG E 5-10KTS BY MIDNIGHT...THEN E/SE ARND
5KTS OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT LONG PD ERLY SWELLS WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN
OUT...BUT IMPACT WITH THE SRLY GULF STREAM WILL MAINTAIN TREACHEROUS
CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THRU THU MRNG.

THU-SUN...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AND EFFECTS OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...ALONG WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  76  89  76 /  20  20  20  20
MCO  94  74  93  76 /  20  10  20  20
MLB  89  77  89  77 /  20  20  20  30
VRB  89  76  91  76 /  20  20  20  30
LEE  94  75  94  77 /  20  10  20  20
SFB  93  75  94  77 /  20  10  20  20
ORL  94  75  93  77 /  20  10  20  20
FPR  88  76  90  74 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER





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