Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281343
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
943 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Today-Tonight...Not planning any significant changes.

Precipitable water at upstream Tampa sounding was 1.66 inches this
morning, with 500 mb temps around minus 6 Celsius. However, as
trough aloft and associated frontal trough sag through the southeast
states, 500mb temps will cool and moisture will increase. A deep
westerly wind flow exists with speeds from the surface to 700mb 10
knots or less, but these speeds will increase during the day.

Expect scattered showers/storms to initiate along the west coast sea
breeze boundary and march across east central Florida this afternoon
and early evening.  Guidance is showing the east coast sea breeze
pushing inland less than yesterday, probably staying along/east of I-
95. This will confine east/west boundary interaction to a narrow
zone right along the coast. Main storm threat will be frequent
lightning strikes with a few cells.  Some drier air aloft still
exists, so gusty winds 40-45 mph could occur and be a mariner hazard.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers/storms will affect the TAF sites this
afternoon and early evening and produce brief MVFR-IFR, gusty winds
around 35 knots and frequent lightning strikes.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...No wind problems today with a west wind flow 10
knots or less.  Seas were predominate swell at 2-3 feet.

Weather will pose a mariner threat again as storms marching across
the mainland emerge into the Atlantic waters this afternoon/evening.
A chance for gusts around 35 knots exists and a few strong storms
will produce torrential downpours and frequent lightning strikes.

$$

Forecasts...Lascody
Impact Wx/Aviation...Ulrich



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