Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 211429
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...BROAD/SLOPPY LOW PRESSURE GYRE OVER THE BOC CONTINUES TO
SPIN WHILE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS CARRY HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
(ABOVE 500MB ACCORDING TO TBW/XMR RAOBS) ENEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TO THE NORTH...A WEAK REINFORCING
SURFACE COOL FRONT LIES JUST NORTH OF LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES. SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM AREAWIDE HOWEVER 12Z RAOB/PROFILER DATA
SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE SW-WSW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. 14Z TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 73-75F RANGE. LOCAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER OKEECHOBEE/MARTIN COUNTIES.

LOOKING ALOFT...AXIS OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
THE SERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS NRN FL...BECOMING MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED
OVER THE NERN GOMEX.

REST OF TODAY...AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CWA WHILST SLOWING TODAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL
WIND/RH PROGS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
STREAM OVER FL...WITH SOME EROSION ALONG THE NRN FLANK BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH AND MINIMAL TO NIL RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE SRN HALF TO THIRD CWA. MORNING UPDATE EMPHASIZES
THIS A LITTLE STRONGER...BUMPING POPS FOR OKEECHOBEE/MARTIN/ST LUCIE
COUNTIES TO LIKELY WHILE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA UNCHANGED.
PRECIP MAY HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
OSCEOLA/BREVARD COS...BUT WILL LEAVE SMALL CHC THERE FOR NOW.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE OF NOTE WAS TO SHAVE A BIT OFF OF MAXES OWING TO
THE HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ABOVE BKN-OVC200 FOR MOST AREAS. PRECIP CONFINED TO
MLB-VRB-FPR-SUA CORRIDOR WITH MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN SHRA/TS...AND
CHANCES PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER AT EACH SITE AS YOU HEAD SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY W-SW WINDS BELOW 10KT WITH SEAS 1.5-2.5FT NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 3FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WIMMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

RAIN MOVES OUT OF MOST LOCATIONS QUICKLY THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE
WITH FRONT THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER MARTIN COUNTY AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC.

WED...A DEEP CLOSED LOW AT 500 MBS WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE
DELMARVA AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST IN THE
MORNING PUSHES SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A VERY DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SRN OKEECHOBEE AND
ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID 80S SRN
INTERIOR.

WED NIGHT...NNE LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST AS
THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPPER 50S FOR LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO 65-70 ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST.

THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE INTO S GA WITH NE TO ENE LOW
LVL FLOW. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY CLOSE
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS S FL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...00Z GFS INDICATES SFC LOW/TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL
EJECT ENE ACROSS CUBA OR POSSIBLY THE FL STRAITS AND MOVE WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE MAY LIFT TOWARD THE TREASURE
COAST AS THE SFC LOW EJECTS AND WITH NE LOW LVL FLOW EXPECT SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO A FEW ATLC SHOWER BANDS THAT MAY MOVE ONSHORE. WILL
ADVERTISE 20-30 PCT RAIN CHANCES FOR SRN SECTIONS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES ENE.

SAT-TUE...A DIVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE FROM CAROLINAS
SHOULD PICK UP THE SYSTEM OR WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND MOVE
IT FURTHER OUT TO SEA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SE STATES MOVING
TWD THE MID ATLC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL VEER THE LOW LVL FLOW
FROM NE TO EAST WITH SLOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE ATLC TO PUSH ONSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LCL MIFG/BR POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z. ISOLD-WDLY SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA LIFTING NORTH FROM S
FLORIDA AFTER 11Z AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF KMLB TO LAKE KISSIMMEE
TODAY WITH NORTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY. A FEW SHRA LINGERING AFTER
00Z VCNTY KOBE-KSUA OTHERWISE MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER LCL
ATLANTIC.



&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LIGHT GRADIENT IN BETWEEN FRONTS WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AROUND 5KTS MOST OF THE DAY...OCCASIONALLY 5-10KTS. PREVAILING
DIRECTION S-SW WITH A ONSHORE COMPONENT RIGHT AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN W-NW LATE TONIGHT AS SECONDARY FRONT MOVES IN
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO A SOLID 10KTS. SEAS 2-3FT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET THIS AFTERNOON.

WED-THU....N TO NE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6
FT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS INTO MID WEEK. ON FRIDAY NE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS...WITH HIGHER SEAS
CONTINUING TO 4-6 FT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
FOR THE SRN WATER SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH
SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT OFFSHORE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
SE STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  63  81  58 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  86  66  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  84  67  84  65 /  20  10  10   0
VRB  84  67  85  67 /  30  20  10  10
LEE  86  65  84  58 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  86  66  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  86  67  85  62 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  84  66  84  67 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$





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