Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 290127
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
827 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Surface warm front extending into west central MN will continue
lifting north as a cold front approaches from the eastern Dakotas.
Warm air/moisture advection will ensue across northwest and
north central MN tonight as the nocturnal low level jet
strengthens. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in
response over northwest MN, and track east and slightly southeast
overnight. This activity should primarily affect the far northern
part of the forecast area late tonight, and pivot into west
central MN around daybreak Monday. As the front enters the
forecast area during peak heating Monday, expect more widespread
activity to spread east/southeast across the forecast area on
Monday afternoon and evening. Prior to the frontal passage, highs
will warm into the low/mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

The longer term concerns are timing of frontal passage across the
cwa into Tuesday afternoon and the attendant severe weather threat.

Initially the front sags into the northern cwa around 00z Tuesday.
Instability and mid level lapse rates are quite unstable along the
frontal boundary.  The flow is rather weak and deeper shear is lagging
the front.  It appears the greatest threat/high pops will be over the
northeast portion of the cwa into Monday evening. The severe
weather threat looks marginal at the moment...but hail and strong
winds will be a definite threat at least through the evening. If
the front is slower than progged...we could see a heavy rain
threat develop if convection becomes well established. PW`s
increase to about 1.75 inches which is above the 90% percentile
for the date. We will have to monitor this threat into he evening.

The front exits the area Tuesday and a large dry ridge of high pressure
settles over the Great Lakes region through the week.  This should provide
drier dewpoint air with cool nights and steadily warmer days through the
end of the week.  The deterministic models are in fair agreement of bringing
in the next front later Saturday through Sunday. Forecast PW`s increase
out ahead of the western conus trough and should surge out along the front
then...providing another heavy rain threat to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 830 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A couple weather concerns tonight and tomorrow. We are watching
developing thunderstorms near the MN/ND border this evening. These
storms are not an immediate threat to any of the TAF sites, but
they are eventually expected to move east-southeast tonight and
could impact KAXN/KSTC and possibly even KMSP before sunrise.
There is also the potential for a little fog/stratus tonight, but
conditions will not be nearly as bad as last night. Another round
of storms is possible tomorrow afternoon - potential for these to
be a little more widespread and impact more airports.

KMSP...

The thunder out in western MN is not making much progress to the
east, but it still might create a concern late tonight if it
grows upscale into a line of storms. If that happens, the storms
will try and drop southeast near and north of the I-94 corridor.
There is a better chance for thunder tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON EVE...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NNE 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF



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