Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 021102
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
602 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

LOOKING AT WIND OBS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COLD FRONT WHICH JUST BARELY MADE IT INTO WRN MN WEDNESDAY EVENING
HAS FINALLY STARTED TO MOVE. STARTING TO SEE MORE LIGHT NW WIND OBS
IN MN AND AT 330 AM...THE WIND SHIFT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
I-35. THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY THOUGH HAS NOT FOLLOWED THE WIND
SHIFT...AS IT WAS STILL BACK ALONG A RWF TO BRAINERD LINE AT 330 AM.
LIGHT WINDS AND A JUICED BOUNDARY LAYER THANKS TO RAINS WEDNESDAY
HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RATHER UGLY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY. WITH WINDS REALLY NOT PICKING UP MUCH
TODAY...COMBINED WITH UPPER CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE
STRATUS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING THE LOW STRATUS TO GO VERY FAR TODAY.
GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER RAINY
AFTERNOON...CUT BACK ON HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...KEEPING THEM
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S...THOUGH DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MAIN PRECIP
BAND SETS UP TODAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRIP ACROSS THE CENTER
OF THE CWA THAT REMAINS IN THE 50S.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THERE IS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ON ITS WAY.
CURRENTLY ITS DOWN ACROSS NE NEB AND SE SODAK. THE PRECIP THAT WILL
BE COMING THIS DIRECTION WILL BE ROOTED ON A STRONG BAND OF FGEN IN
THE H7-H6 LAYER. THE 02.00 GFS AND NAM AGREE ON THIS BAND...BUT
DIFFERED SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHERE IT WOULD GO. THE GFS HAS THE CENTER
OF THE BAND GOING UP A RWF/STC LINE...WHILE THE NAM WAS WE OVER
ALONG AND EVEN A LITTLE EAST OF AN AEL/EAU LINE...THOUGH THE 02.06
NAM DID SHIFT THE BAND WEST. WHEN LOOKING AT THE
RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF/NMM/ARW...THEY ALL AGREE NICELY WITH WHAT THE GFS
HAS...SO FAVORED THE POP/QPF FORECAST TODAY TOWARD A GFS/CAM BLEND.
OTHER CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE
MPX CWA.

TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT OF WRN WI BETWEEN 2Z AND 6Z.
BEHIND THIS PRECIP...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME STRONGER PRESSURE
RISES MOVE INTO WRN MN. THIS WILL START BRINGING IN SOME BETTER THAN
10 KT WINDS OUT INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE OTHER ADVANTAGE
TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS IS THAT THIS WILL
FINALLY HELP FLUSH THE LOW STRATUS OUT OF THE MPX AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE FOCUS ON FRIDAY REMAINS ON THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND NEAR
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN WESTERN MN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WE ARE
BECOMING A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE IN HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY GIVEN THE SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THE FORECAST WINDS
SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. YESTERDAY`S NAM WAS
SHOWING MORE 44-49KTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL AND THIS
MORNING`S RUN...ALONG WITH THE GFS ARE GENERALLY 38-43KTS. WE WILL
STILL BE EFFICIENT IN BRING THESE WINDS TO THE GROUND DUE TO THE
GOOD MIXING.

THE SLOWER TREND WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM ALSO MEANS MOST OF
FRIDAY COULD BE PRECIP FREE AS WE END UP IN THE DRY SLOT...WITH
THE TRAILING WEAK TROUGH AND UPPER LOW NOT SWINGING THROUGH UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING MIGHT ACTUALLY SUPPORT A FEW MORE SNOW
FLAKES MIXING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURE PROFILE COLLAPSE AND THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO NEAR
1000FT WHILE THE LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF MN AND IN WESTERN WI. THE SURFACE TEMP AND GROUND TEMP ARE TOO
WARM FOR EVEN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NONETHELESS WE`RE ABOUT A
COUPLE WEEKS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE FROM WHEN WE TYPICALLY SEE OUR
FIRST FLAKES. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL HAVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT
/INCHES/ SNOWFALL IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO.

CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW AND COOL FALL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MAINLY DRY. THE ECMWF
IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING BACK WARMER TEMPS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT JETTISONS A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE
APPALACHIANS AND LIFTS THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE CONUS
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE PATTERN IS EVOLVING SLOWER AND TEMPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE. IT`S GOING TO BE TOUGH TO SHAKE THE
40S AND 50S UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY...MAYBE WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING WAS TO IMPROVE
VSBYS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOME
TIME WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE NEXT
WAVE TO THE SW HELPING TO LIMIT MIXING. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH
THE TAF IN TERMS OF TIMING FOR ARRIVAL OF RAIN...OTHER THAN TO
SPEED IT UP A BIT. WENT ABOUT AN HOUR FASTER THAN THE HRRR AS IT
HAS BEEN INITIALIZING A BIT SLOW WITH THE PRECIP THIS MORNING.
CIGS IN THAT RAIN RIGHT NOW ARE MAINLY VFR...SO TRIED TO SHOW SOME
MORE CIGS INTO THE HIGHER MVFR CATEGORY AS THE RAIN COMES IN.
WILL SEE CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY BEHIND THE RAIN...WITH THE
THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO THE NW AFTER 9Z. WILL START
PICKING UP GUSTS AFTER 6Z AT RWF/AXN...WITH MSP PICKING UP ON THE
GUSTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

KMSP...MSP IS OUT OF THE WOODS FOR DENSE FG...BUT LIFR/IFR CIGS
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z WILL KEEP THINGS RUNNING A BIT SLOWER.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE
FIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE VIS DROP BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVES THROUGH. DECIDED TO MOVE THE CIGS
ABOVE 017 WHEN THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN AS WELL BASED ON THE FACT
THAT OBS IN THE RAIN SHIELD NOW HAVE CIGS RANGING FROM 020-050. BY
THE END OF THE TAF...WILL LIKELY BE SEEING NW WINDS GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS WNW 15G25 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WNW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ042>045-
     049>053-057>063-065>070-074>078-082>085-091>093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014-015-
     023>026.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG






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