Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 252231
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
231 PM PST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will bring gusty winds Sunday followed by snow
Sunday night and Monday. Drier conditions are then expected next
week with below average temperatures through Wednesday followed by
a slow warming trend into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A weak low pressure system will drop along the West Coast and into
Northern CA/NV Sunday into Monday. This storm is not nearly as
strong as some of the bigger storms we have seen this season, but
will still bring some minor impacts to the region.

Winds will become gusty on Sunday as the 700mb flow increases to
around 35-45 kts. This is not expected to be an extremely windy
storm, although wind gusts around 35-45 mph will be possible
Sunday afternoon and evening. Lake wind advisories have been
issued for Tahoe and Pyramid Lake as gusty winds will produce
choppy lake conditions. Sierra ridge gusts may reach up to near
100 mph Sunday.

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Lake Tahoe Basin
from Sunday evening through Monday morning. This storm doesn`t
look very organized at all, but as the snow begins to push in late
in the day on Sunday, we should start to see light to moderate
snow accumulations in the Sierra with snowfall rates up to 1" per
hour at times. Colder temperatures aloft, with 700mb temps around
-12C will help to get higher snow ratios close to 15:1 and
quicker snow accumulations even with the lack of overall moisture.
Gusty winds and lighter fluffier snow will also lead to low
visibility at times for the Sierra passes due to blowing snow.

Overall, we expect to see 2-6" of new snow around the Tahoe Basin
with up to 8" along the Sierra Crest above 7000 feet. Tahoe will
have the most snow accumulations, with Plumas- Lassen and Mono
Counties seeing lesser amounts generally 1-4". Light snow is also
possible for the western NV and Northeast CA valleys Sunday night
into early Monday morning with up to an inch on the valley floors
and potentially up to 2 inches for the foothills and elevations
above 5000 feet. Snow levels will be at all valley floors, with
even some light accumulation up to an inch for Fernley, Lovelock,
Fallon, Yerington and Hawthorne.

Snow amounts will be much less than the bigger storms we`ve seen
this season, but some travel difficulties and slow downs are
possible for the Monday morning commute, especially around the
Tahoe Basin. Light snow showers are expected to continue through
the day on Monday and into Monday evening with little to no
additional accumulations. Hoon

.LONG TERM...Tuesday and beyond...

A welcomed period of quiet weather is expected next week as a low
amplitude ridge builds across the region. Lingering light snow
showers will be possible Tuesday before conditions dry out with a
northwest flow aloft becoming established. Dry conditions, light
winds, and a steady warming trend will develop through next week.

High temperatures in the lower 40s across western Nevada on Tuesday
will warm near seasonable values by the start of the weekend with
mid 50s possible. Reduced cloud cover and modest valley inversions
may allow low temperatures in colder valleys in the Sierra to remain
in the teens and single digits.

By next weekend, broad troughing sets up across the Pacific
Northwest with northern California and Nevada remaining along the
southern periphery of the trough. This will mainly give us better
chances for increased winds and cloud cover by next weekend but the
at this point it looks as if most of the moisture associated with
the trough will stay north across the Pacific Northwest with only
low chances for precipitation for areas near the southern Oregon
border. Fuentes

.Aviation...

A few lingering light snow showers will be possible through late
this afternoon but no runway accumulations expected for Sierra and
western Nevada terminals. Very brief periods of MVFR conditions
possible within snow showers.

Another weak disturbance will push across the Sierra and western
Nevada terminals Sunday evening into Monday. Winds will increase
Sunday afternoon with peak gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range and
turbulence possible. A second push of moisture will result in
continued mountain terrain obscuration due to lowered ceilings and
another round of snow showers early Sunday evening into Monday.

Snow showers look to begin after 03Z Monday for KTRK/KTVL and after
06z for KRNO/KCXP. 2 to 3 inches of snowfall is possible for
KTVL/KTRK with up to an inch possible for KRNO/KCXP/KMMH. Fuentes

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for Pyramid
     Lake in NVZ004.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Sunday for Lake Tahoe
     in NVZ002.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM PST Monday
     NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Sunday for Lake Tahoe
     in CAZ072.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM PST Monday
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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