Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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943
FXUS65 KREV 280334
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
834 PM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...

With winds diminishing across the area, the Lake Wind Advisory for
Pyramid Lake was allowed to expire on time. Otherwise forecast
remains on track with shower activity ending this evening as the
atmosphere stabilizes. -Dawn

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 PM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

SYNOPSIS...
Showers will diminish this evening with dry weather returning for
Tuesday and Wednesday with light winds and a warming trend. The
next storm will arrive Thursday with rain and snow showers as well
as gusty northwest winds. It will be much colder Thursday and
Friday behind the storm.

SHORT TERM...
Rain and snow pellet showers continue across the Eastern Sierra
and Western NV this afternoon. They remain brief, but are capable
of producing slick spots on area roads for a few minutes. These
showers should quickly diminish early this evening as solar
heating wanes.

Otherwise, the main change for the forecast for midweek is to
increase the threat of showers for the next system Wednesday night
into Thursday. Until then, light winds under a short wave ridge
are expected with a warming trend. Some gusty winds will occur
over Sierra ridges from the northeast tonight, but will be much
lighter for Tuesday night as the northeast gradient weakens.

For Wednesday night, the next system drops out of the northwest
with a strong cold front expected to pass through during the day
Thursday. The trajectory of this system shows it behaving as a
slider with impressive dynamics in the cyclonically curved left
exit region of the upper jet. With it having a more over water
trajectory than is typical of sliders, it will be capable of
brief, but intense precip along the cold front. Snow levels will
start high at 7-8000 feet, but then look to crash to near the
valley floors.

The front looks to pass through during the day which should help
to limit any snow or pellet accumulation on roads. However, it
will be unstable with thunderstorms possible along the front and
in the cold, unstable air behind the front. These could put down a
quick coating on roads with roads going from dry to a skating rink
in a short distance. Overall precip with the front should average
about a quarter inch or so for all locations. Sliders don`t care
if you are in the desert or in the mountains. Wallmann

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...
A few lingering showers will remain across central Nevada in the
wake of the departing upper-level low Friday morning. Showers will
diminish through the afternoon as drier air works its way in
ahead of a building upper level ridge. Winds will remain breezy
out of the north on Friday which will keep temperatures seasonable
and waters choppy on Pyramid Lake. The building ridge will allow
temperatures to warm through the weekend with high temperatures
returning to the mid and upper 60s across western Nevada and upper
50s for Sierra valleys.

Heading late into the weekend and into Monday, models are showing
considerable uncertainty in the large scale pattern with the GFS
depicting a developing closed low across northern California with a
much drier solution in the EC. There also has been considerable run
variability and ensemble spread, not surprising given the time of
year and the difficultly models tend to have with springtime
patterns. Most GEFS members depict some form of shortwave trough by
early next week but given the amplified flow, it may be quick and
aggressive in developing this trough. For now, will leave only a
slight chance mention for showers and will continue a cooling trend
into early next week. Fuentes

AVIATION...
Brisk northwest winds will continue through early evening with
gusts remaining in the 25-30kt range through about 03z this
evening. Light rain and graupel showers fueled by afternoon
instability will also diminish after sunset with some localized
gusts around 35 knots possible near shower activity. Expecting VFR
conditions with CIGs near 5,000` with brief periods of MVFR
conditions with CIGS to 3,000` along with mountain obscuration.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry with light winds, while another
system queues up for Thursday. Rain and snow showers with gusty
winds are expected with that next system, with a few thunderstorms
possible over west central NV. Edan/Fuentes

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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