Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 290935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
235 AM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016


Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Memorial Day with
the best chances south of Highway 50. Otherwise, a significant
warming trend is on tap this week with high temperatures pushing
80 degrees in the Sierra and lower 90s across some western Nevada



Weak upper low was tracking eastward across southern CA this
morning and is progged to move into Arizona Monday. The best
chance for showers and thunderstorms is going to be this afternoon
as deformation across Mono-Mineral Counties combines with incoming
shortwave aloft. There will be a bit more instability as initial
cloud cover will be more limited. However, both the GFS/NAM show
thick cloud shield developing in response to convection and this
may once again limit heavier showers and strongest storms to the
afternoon period with a decrease early this evening. In addition,
best phasing of dynamics and deformation appears to be over
central and eastern NV early this evening. So scattered coverage
for Mono-Mineral Counties and along the Pine Nut Mountains will
suffice with isolated storms elsewhere.

High pressure begins to build into the region to round out the
Memorial Day weekend. Storms will be more isolated Monday
afternoon and confined mainly to the Sierra Crest south of Lake
Tahoe. Tuesday should be dry and capped as high pressure brings
significant warming aloft. Highs will continue to warm with highs
in the 70s Sierra valleys and well into the 80s across lower
elevations by Tuesday. Hohmann

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...

Ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the area through the
last half of the week, with temperatures well above normal for
early June. Very warm temperatures will allow for unstable
conditions, although we should remain capped on Wednesday with
only a few buildups over the Sierra. By Thursday, however, we
should see enough moisture and instability to overcome the weak
capping and get some thunderstorms over the Eastern Sierra of
Mono-Alpine Counties and into the Pine Nut Mountains of western

By Friday and into the weekend, forecaster confidence is rising
regarding an area of low pressure off the southern CA coast
moving inland and bringing additional moisture/instability to the
Sierra. This would be consistent with typical Great Basin High
thunderstorm pattern that increases thunderstorm chances for our
area. That being said, we are still about 6-7 days out and there
remains much uncertainty in the track/timing of the low into
SoCal, thus we have introduced only a slight chance of
thunderstorms for next weekend. Hoon



VFR conditions expected through today outside of showers and
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected again this afternoon with the best chances mainly south
of a KTVL-KNFL line. Across the Sierra, KMMH will see the best
chance for TS with about a 30% likelihood this afternoon.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing small hail, brief heavy
rainfall, and outflow winds up to 45 mph. Fuentes/Hoon


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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