Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 272154
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE STARTING TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE
A FEW AREAS OF WEAK INSTABILITY STILL THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF HAWTHORNE AND NORTH OF SUSANVILLE, WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR TOMORROW, AGAIN CHANCES ARE SLIM
FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BUT THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF SUSANVILLE AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAP, KEEPING
ANY STORMS VERY ISOLATED AT BEST.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST COAST. BY SATURDAY, WE
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TEMPERATURES IN
WESTERN NEVADA WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN
THE SIERRA.

AS HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AND FOLKS BEGIN THINKING
ABOUT SUMMER, PEOPLE MAY THINK ITS A GOOD IDEA TO COOL OFF IN LOCAL
LAKES AND RIVERS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE CURRENT WATER TEMPERATURE IN
LAKE TAHOE IS ABOUT 53 DEGREES. PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR IN LOCAL LAKES AND RIVERS.
HYPOTHERMIA IS A REAL THREAT DURING EARLY SUMMER, ESPECIALLY IF YOU
AREN`T EXPECTING IT. HOON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN CA/NV WITH BREEZY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. THE NEGATIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA MONDAY, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS. HOWEVER, THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINS NORTH INTO OREGON, SO HAVE ONLY LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-FALLON LINE.
A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM
DAY ON SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE WEST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY. THE ONLY PLACES WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON ARE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED STORMS HAVE
FORMED THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET TONIGHT.

FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH THE MARTIS VALLEY,
INCLUDING KTRK, FROM AROUND 10Z-14Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE WEST. DJ

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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