Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 012046
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
145 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL FORCE MONSOON MOISTURE
EASTWARD OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THEIR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REACH
THE WESTERN VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND RETREAT TO NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SURFACE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE STRATUS SHIELD LINGERED AT THE SAN DIEGO COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE
EVENING. ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES CLEARED A LITTLE BETTER TODAY. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY SO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
IS THE WAY TO GO FOR TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING AT SOME
OF THE COASTAL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH DRIER THAN IS WAS ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
LOWER. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE
MONSOON MOISTURE BOTTLED UP OVER ARIZONA. A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN
VALLEYS. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A 500 MB UPPER HIGH BRIEFLY GAINS FOOTING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL BRING WARM/HOT DAYS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET
SHALLOWER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH
SETTING UP OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY MOUNTAIN
AND DESERT WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... 012000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 2000
FT AND TOPS BLO 2500 FT MSL OVER THE BEACHES AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
ADVANCE INLAND OVER COASTAL AREAS...RETURNING TO COASTAL AIRPORTS BY
02/02Z-05Z. THE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 1000-1500 FT MSL WITH
TOPS NEAR 2000 FT OVERNIGHT...AND SPREADING INLAND UP TO 25SM
THROUGH 13Z SUN PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN.

KONT...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS FAR INLAND
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE NV/CA BORDER.
DEPENDING ON LATER GUIDANCE...AN IFR CIG MAY BE ADDED FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND DAWN.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 1 PM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS LATE AFT/EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD


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