Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 162026
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND VALLEYS DURING THE
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. WARMER INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. A DEEPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHILE
ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...WITH +5.1 MB SAN-DAG AND +5.7 MB
SAN-IPL.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT...ONSHORE FLOW...AND A COASTAL EDDY
WILL CONTINUE THE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THU. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY LATE
MORNING...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S WEST OF THE MTNS. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE DESERTS AS LARGE-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW REFLECTS DOWN TO THE SFC.

FOR FRI AND SAT...THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...LOWER TEMPS...STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW...AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD
INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS COULD PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ON FRI AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND...BUT A LACK OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

FOR SUN AND MON...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVR SOCAL. THIS
WILL BRING SOME WARMING...MAINLY INLAND...ALONG WITH A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER FOR LESS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

FOR TUE AND WED...GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...INDICATING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE NORTH...WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
NOTICEABLE COOLING AND COULD BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS. THE 12Z CYCLES OF BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECM NOW SHOW EVEN LESS CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOUTH OF SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
162005Z...COAST/VALLEYS...THROUGH 17/0000 UTC...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND
MOSTLY SKC...EXCEPT THERE MAY BE SCT-BKN CLDS AROUND 1500 FT MSL
THAT MOVE INLAND 3 SM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING.
17/0000-0300 UTC...STRATUS MOVING BACK INLAND 10-15 SM...EVENTUALLY
REACHING 20-35 SM INLAND BY 17/1200 UTC. BASES WILL BE 1400-1700 FT
MSL...TOPS 2200-2400 FT MSL...AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
INTO KONT AGAIN. ALSO...EXPECT AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM...WITH LOCAL VIS
1-2SM IN THE VICINITY OF KONT/KCNO/KRAL AND KRNM. STRATUS CLEARING
TO THE COASTAL WATERS 17/1600-1800 UTC.

MTNS/DESERTS.....UNRESTRICTED VIS AND MOSTLY SKC THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

THE WAVE WATCH 3 SHOWS POSSIBLE LARGE SHORT-PERIOD SWELLS AND STRONG
COASTAL WATER WINDS NEXT TUESDAY DUE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THE
MOMENT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON





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