Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 291633
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
933 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE...SUBSIDING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW COOLING
TO BEGIN ALONG THE COAST....BUT CONTINUE WARMING FOR INLAND AREAS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER WEATHER AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH EVEN COOLER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AROUND 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN
DIEGO...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARIE AROUND 900 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED A FEW AREAS OF STRATUS...MAINLY OFF OF THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COAST. THE 28/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE COLUMN...WITH A CALCULATED 0.78
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS...AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND TRAVERSE SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL
ALONG THE COAST TODAY AS THE MARINE LAYER REDEVELOPS...HOT WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WELL INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST TO OUR NORTH WILL CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
TO 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGH DESERTS.

DRY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN TRANSITION SOUTHWESTERLY AS A VERY BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...A WEAK COASTAL EDDY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO AND
BELOW NORMAL. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THE 29/1200 GFS AND 29/0000 ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PATTERN TRHOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THEN DIVERGE IN
AGREEMENT NEXT WEEKEND IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH. THE LIKELY
OUTCOME WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES F BELOW
NORMAL...AND VERY DEEP MARINE LAYER...AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
291550Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHES OF STRATUS MOVING ABOUT 5 MILES
INLAND OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING...WITH BASES OF 800-1000 FT
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...AND TOPS AROUND 1300-1500 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL. THIS STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 1800 UTC. 1800-30/0300
UTC...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 30/0300-1400
UTC...STRATUS GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND 10-15 MILES...WITH BASES
AROUND 800-1200 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...TOPS AROUND 1300-1500 FT
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND AREAS OF VISIBILITY 3-5 MILES.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
850 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
850 AM...LATEST BUOY REPORTS FROM THE NEAR SHORE WATERS INDICATE
THAT THE SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE HAS FALLEN TO
AROUND 3-5 FEET WITH 10 SECOND INTERVALS. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SURF OF 5-7 FEET WITH SETS TO 8
FEET IS LIKELY FOR ORANGE COUNTY...AND ACTUALLY STILL BEING
REPORTED ACCORDING TO THE MORNING SURFLINE OBSERVATIONS...SO A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND ELEVATED SURF WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...WHERE A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT. NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED AFTER TODAY. FOR DETAILS...SEE
CFWSGX AND SRFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON






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