Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 302326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Vertically-stacked low pressure system pushed across the KS/MO
border this afternoon, with showers rapidly dissipating as the
attendant synoptic lift likewise waned. Some pockets of light
drizzle may persist through the afternoon in the east. A northerly
fetch will persist in the wake of the low through tonight, which
will aid in keeping low stratus clouds in place well into tomorrow
and keep high temperatures slightly below normal for this time of
year. Surface ridging builds over central Kansas overnight with
winds decreasing throughout the afternoon and evening today. Despite
the continuing overcast skies, fog may develop close to the ridge
axis (primarily west of Manhattan) owing to the recent 2-4 inches of
rain that fell over the region over the last 48 hours, helping to
recharge the sub-surface soil moisture. Northeasterly flow off the
departing ridge on Friday will not bode well for clearing out clouds
quickly tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

For the mid range and extended forecast, most NWP guidance is in
decent agreement on forecast outcome of wet weekend ahead.  Good
news is that not nearly as much precipitation is expected to fall
over the already very saturated region.  Therefore, concerns for
flooding should remain low.  The upper pattern will remain active
for the foreseeable future with the weekend system digging into the
desert southwest.  Into the Saturday day period, this upper low
transitions into an open wave and all guidance hints to the
possibility of the elongated trough taking more of a southerly track
into the Southern Plains with a mid level shortwave pulling into the
Central Plains.  This effectively splits the system at this point.
The shortwave does become negatively tilted as it advects over
northeastern KS, which could bring a period of stronger elevated
storms into the area during the morning on Sunday into the afternoon
period.  Models do differ a bit on the overall shear profile and
instability during this time, so it is still hard to say if there is
much severe potential regarding hail mainly.

Monday should be a pleasant day, with a dry atmosphere and surface
ridging in behind the departing weekend cyclone.  High temps in the
60s should be common.  More uncertainty with the Tuesday/Wednesday
time frame system, so hard to say exact amount of precip or storm
potential at this point.  The GFS deepens the Pacific system but not
as much as the EC and tracks the system just to the north of the
KS/NE border.  The GFS therefore keeps the bulk of the precip to the
north as well.  If the GFS verified, then there may be some potential
for strong to severe storms to work into the very southern portions
of the area south of I-70 mainly during a short time frame on
Tuesday afternoon.  Of course if the EC verifies, then this
potential would shift further south of the area and potential for
wrap around precip on Wednesday time frame could include a brief
period of mixed precip along the KS/NE border.  Again, many factors
yet to take shape in the overall pattern before saying one way or
the other.

Overall temps for the forecast period will hang in around normals
with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s to lower 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

MVFR and IFR ceilings will be the main focus for the next 24 hours.
Winds will gradually shift through the period, coming from the
northeast by tomorrow afternoon. There is a chance for some
improvement in ceilings towards the very end of the period but
currently have kept an MVFR forecast through tomorrow.




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