Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 012021
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
321 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Nice Saturday afternoon underway with seasonal temperatures...low
dewpoints and light winds beneath a weak surface ridge. We`ll see
yet another chilly night...with temps falling off into the
mid/upper 40s for the usual cooler spots across far northeast OK
and northwest AR. Low-level temps continue to warm into
Sunday...with afternoon highs generally in the 80-85 degree range.

Temporary upper ridging will give way to southwesterly flow as the
next upper moves through the western states and into the Rockies
early next week. Resultant increase in southerly flow will
eventually bring higher dewpoint air back to the forecast area
later Tuesday. While the latest 12z ECMWF/GFS are in overall good
agreement...they are much slower than previous runs with the
frontal progression by mid-week as both hold significant upper
energy farther west. We`ll still have a decent shot at
showers/storms later Wednesday/Wednesday night...although the best
chances may eventually hold off until Thursday/Thursday night as
the southern stream wave ejects east. We`ve added some chances
PoPs for this period for now...and they`ll need to be raised if
the model trends/consistency remains.

Cooler/drier weather expected late next week and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   55  85  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   52  83  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   48  81  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   45  79  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   50  78  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   52  83  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   48  80  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
F10   53  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   54  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....18



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