Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 270308
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND CENTERED
OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
TONIGHT. SFC WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. INTERMITTENT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS FAR NERN OK AND FAR NWRN AR AT
TIMES TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH CLOUD TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES MUCH. OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST IS TRACKING VERY
WELL AND SEE NO REASON FOR EVENING UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.  TRANSIENT MID CLOUD.
NW WIND BECOMING LIGHT / VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TURNING
SOUTHERLY THURSDAY,

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAYS COLD FRONT HAS RACED THROUGH THE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...SOMETIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH GUSTS...WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LESSENING WITH SUNSET.
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IN FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL AS TODAY TO SOME. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN FROM ITS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STATE
OF LATE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 15 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON DECK FOR
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND GAINING A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE CRITERIA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST DATA GENERALLY FAVOR A
LATER ARRIVAL THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SPOTS...LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...TO REACH THE MID 70S OR SO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS
MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECEDING
DAYS AND ALSO THE LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A BIG EVENT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL...ALLOWING
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN ANYTHING BUT STABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...SO FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  49  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  49  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   29  53  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   21  47  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   22  46  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  44  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  49  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   23  45  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   28  50  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   31  55  34  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...21
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....22




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