Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 061606
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
906 AM MST FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ONCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 06/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE THE UPPER
LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CALIFORNIA.
IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH OVER PARTS
OF CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...UTAH AND COLORADO. CLOSER TO HOME...A
NARROW PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM NOGALES AND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE TUCSON AREA AND NORTHWARD INTO UTAH. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
CLOUDS...MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO AND ACROSS THE
MOGOLLON RIM EAST OF PAYSON AND NORTH TO SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTH.

THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND AS
SUCH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM THE WEST...WITH THE
BEST THREAT OCCURRING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL COME THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GIVING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THAT TIME WILL BE
LOW...GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S TO THE MID 70S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A
TEMP OF 71 DEGS...AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 62 DEGS. THESE READINGS
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO EITHER THE SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMPS OR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST AS NEEDED.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WE ALREADY HAVE A WIND ADVISORY AND A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR MAINLY PARTS OF COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...A RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF ALL OF THESE
HEADLINES IS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING.

THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING SHOWED STRONG WINDS...WITH 28 KTS AT
850MB...36 KTS AT 700MB AND NEARLY 60 KTS AT 500MB. AT 300MB WINDS A
BIT ABOVE 100 KTS. WINDS CURRENTLY KICKING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 16Z WITH DOUGLAS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 24 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 36 MPH. AT THIS TIME THAT IS THE STRONGEST WIND AT OUR ASOS
SITES...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL EARLY...THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/18Z.
MAIN CONCERN NEXT 24 HOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WIND WITH ALL TERMINAL
SITES SEEING GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE S-SW. KDUG WILL LIKELY BE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STRONGEST
GUSTS. A CLEAR SKY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF KTUS WHERE SCT-BKN 8-12K FT
AGL WILL DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR -SHRA/EMBDD TS W-NW OF
KTUS AFT 06/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY ARE ONCE
AGAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TODAY WILL BE FROM TUCSON
EAST INTO COCHISE COUNTY. A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
ZONES 151...152 AND SRN 153 FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FOR STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING. 20-
FOOT WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS THIS LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE LATER
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAXES THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

DRY NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM MST FOR AZZ151>153.

  WIND ADVISORY TODAY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FOR AZZ507-508-511>513.

  BLOWING DUST ADVISORY TODAY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FOR AZZ507>509.

&&

$$

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