Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 220326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
830 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and cool conditions are expected into Sunday night.
Then another group of weather systems will bring a threat of showers
to the area Monday through Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected
Wednesday onward with cool temperatures lingering through the week.


.DISCUSSION...Showers diminished quickly as expected with the clouds
clearing just as fast this evening.  At the same time thanks to
decoupling the winds have settled down as well this evening. I did a
quick update to clear out more clouds and tweaked the hourly temps,
dewpoints and winds a bit for the night period to better reflect
current trends. The dry weather will continue through Sunday night
with somewhat warmer afternoon temperatures but still nearly 5
degrees colder than average.

After a short break in the action the longwave trough redevelops
over the western U.S. which will drive a couple of upper level
features across the area. The overall result will be a threat of
showers returning Monday into Tuesday with cool temperatures much of
next week. Much lighter precipitation totals expected with this next
system but should be good for a few more inches of snow across the
mountains. Also a good potential for cold morning low temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday mornings where lows near freezing are likely
in the Tucson area and generally 20s and a few teens in the colder
eastern and southern valleys.

The upper trough will push off to the east middle to late next week
as a ridge builds along the west coast. This leaves our area under
a dry northerly flow aloft late next week through the weekend.
So dry weather with temperatures in a gradual warming trend Thursday
onward but overall remaining below normal.


.AVIATION...Valid through 22/23Z.
A slight chance of -SHSN in the White Mountains through midnight,
otherwise dry conditions expected. FEW-SCT clouds at 5k-8k ft AGL
mainly near NM border.  Surface wind generally westerly and less
than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Clearing conditions will continue tonight with
partly cloudy skies Sunday. A slight chance of showers then exists
west-to-north of Tucson Sunday night, with scattered to numerous
valley rain and mountain snow showers areawide Monday and Monday
night. Precipitation chances decrease on Tuesday, with dry
conditions prevailing late Wednesday into next weekend. Gusty west
to northwest winds will continue through the early evening hours
tonight. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will mainly be terrain driven less
than 15 mph.






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