Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 030332
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES...OUR
RECENT STRING OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BROKEN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
FALLING BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...00Z SOUNDING AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH THE START OF
MORE PROMISING TEMPERATURE PROFILE TRENDS IN MID LEVELS (COOLING
BETWEEN H5 AND H7) AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO RECONSOLIDATE EAST OF
THE AREA. SHALLOW OUTFLOW FROM STRONG COMPLEX THROUGH EASTERN SONORA
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WILL COMBINE WITH GULF SURGE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT TO BEGIN THE MOISTURE PUSH TONIGHT. SHALLOW AT FIRST AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS RESPOND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT GAINING
DEPTH WITH TIME AS SOME FLAVOR OF SURGE WILL BE SUSTAINED OVER THE
NEXT 5-6 DAYS OR SO WITH SEVERAL REINFORCING WAVES.

ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH AN EMPHASIS ON INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREAS (ESPECIALLY SANTA CRUZ COUNTY)...THEN RAMPING UP IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL
SURGE IS REINFORCED BY RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT INFLUENCES FROM NORBERT
DOWN NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA.

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THIS IS FURTHER REINFORCED BY ARRIVAL OF
MOISTURE PUSHED AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF DOLLY (FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO) AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING HIGH EAST
OF OUR AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY WET AT THAT POINT AND
SHOULD HAVE A REASONABLY ROBUST SOUTHERLY WIND PROFILE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. EXPECT AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF NEAR SEVERE ORGANIZED
OUTFLOW WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY COULD BE A PRIME DAY FOR
CONVECTIVE BLOWING DUST. SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OR TUESDAY WILL SEE A MARKED ENHANCEMENT TO CHANCES OF HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

AFTER THAT...WE MAY SEE THE TAIL END OF OUR FIRST EARLY SEASON
TROUGH KNOCK THE DEEP MOISTURE BACK SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY.

SUMMARY MAIN CONCERNS FOR EACH DAY:
THU-FRI: POTENTIAL SEVERE/BLOWING DUST
SAT: POTENTIAL SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN
SUN-MON/TUE: POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/04Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF KTUS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR ANY
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPMENT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DAYTIME HIGHS STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO
THURSDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES BACK
INTO THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN INTO WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...GUSTY OUTFLOWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS/HUMPHREYS




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