Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 220344
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
844 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MID AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING. WE
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AROUND THE REGION WITH THE 22/00Z TWC RAOB
INDICATING A PWAT DECREASE OF 0.12 INCHES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 1 TO 4 DEGREES F LOWER
THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
OUR CWA. GRID ELEMENTS ALL LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS WE HEAD
INTO A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. STILL...LOOKS TO
BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BUILD UP SOME
SPOTTY CU FOCUSED NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY
...POSSIBLY APPROACHING NEAR RECORD LEVELS. FALLING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES WILL THEN BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/06Z.
DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AT 6-10K FT AGL...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THRU 22/04Z...WITH
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AREA-WIDE. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN
15 MPH THIS WEEK. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...CARLAW/LADER
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL







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