Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 272022
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
120 PM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AN
UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING HAD THINNED AND
DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ENOUGH
SURFACE HEATING TO HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS SO FAR TODAY. EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST 2 DAYS...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AMPLIFIES AND
BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DEEP EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW WITH MOISTRE WORKING
BACK INTO THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS 8-12K FT AGL WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS INCLUDING KDUG/KOLS AREAS AND PERHAPS
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THROUGH ABOUT
28/03Z. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TUESDAY FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST INCLUDING KTUS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 35
KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCE...SFC WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS FROM FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KSAD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OVER ALL
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA ZONES. STRONG OUTFLOWS NEAR STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS
FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL
DEVELOP MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/FRENCH


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