306
FXUS66 KLOX 151006
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
306 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...14/1054 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog continue for
coasts and most valleys through most of this week. A cooling
trend will develop and continue through the middle of the week
when valley highs are only expected to be in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...14/1154 PM.

The streak of benign weather will continue through the short term.
The upper high that was over Srn CA Monday with 595 dam hgts will
break down today and hgts will fall to 591 dam. The hgts will then
further fall to 588 dam by Thursday. The lowering hgts will allow
the marine layer depth to rise and there will be a better stratus
coverage in the vly. At the sfc, there will be strong onshore flow
to both the N and E in the afternoon and moderate onshore flow in
the mornings. Night through morning low clouds will continue
unabated and as mentioned above with better inland coverage Wed
and Thu.

The drop in hgts and continue strong onshore flow will bring 2 to
4 degrees of cooling to the vlys and 4 to 8 degrees to the mtns
and interior today. The csts will not see much change in max
temps. Another 2 to 4 degrees of cooling away from the cst is
expected on Wednesday. These max temps are 4 to 8 degrees blo
normals and on Wednesday highs across the vlys will only be in the
80s.

The upper flow turn to the SE on Thursday and opens the door for
some monsoon moisture to move. Current mdls are not too
enthusiastic about the amount of moisture that comes into the area
and are even less so with the forecast instability and CAPE. All
in all a non zero chc for convection, but only 10 percent. Still
have to keep an eye on the fcst in case there is a change in the
moisture advection fcst.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...15/305 AM.

The Monsoon threat remains very low with all of the action fcst to
occur S and E of LA county. Still worth a 10 percent chc in the
afternoon through the weekend.

The strong onshore flow regime will finally weaken and will reduce
the marine layer coverage. The low clouds will also clear quicker.
Beaches that have been mired in clouds will finally start to see a
good deal of sunshine.

The weaker gradients and slightly higher hgts will bring 1 to 2
degrees of warming both Fri and Sat with little change then fcst
for Sun/Mon. Max temps will remain several degrees blo normal for
most of the area with only the Antelope Vly coming in with
slightly above normal highs. This warming will bring some readings
in the lower 90s to the warmer vly locations.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0514Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4200 feet with a max temperature of 25 C.

For the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in KPMD and KWJF.

There is a 20% chance of LIFR conditions at KPRB 12Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. Timing of
flight category changes could be off by +/- 90 minutes. There is a
30 percent chc of 1 to 3 hours of SCT conds in the afternoon for
sites with no clearing fcst.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be of by +/- minutes. There is a 30 percent chc of
SCT conds 20Z-23Z. No significant easterly wind component is
expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of low clouds may occur
any time between 0730Z and 0930Z. SCT-SKC conds could arrive as
early as 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...14/818 PM.

Overall, tonight through Saturday winds and seas are expected to
remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across all the
coastal waters. From Friday night through Saturday, there is a 20%
chance of SCA level winds around Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT/CS
SYNOPSIS...MW/Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox