Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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657 FXUS64 KAMA 022328 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 628 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 For tonight, the atmosphere has stabilized somewhat behind the latest cold frontal passage which has moved through the forecast area. Numerical model guidance has reduced pops to non-mentionable values for tonight, and this seems reasonable. For Friday through Friday night, a minor upper level shortwave trof coupled with an approaching cold front and sufficient moisture will result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for precipitation is expected later Friday night as the cold front moves southward across the region. A few storms may have the potential to become severe, mainly Friday evening or night, with hail and wind the primary hazards. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 For Saturday through Sunday afternoon, a couple minor upper level shortwave trofs embedded in the overall southwest flow aloft are forecast to move across the region and will bring a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. Based on the predicted track of these minor features, the southern and southeastern Texas Panhandle will likely have the best chance of receiving precipitation, while the far northwestern zones will have the overall lowest chance. NBM pops reflect the above scenario and were utilized in the appropriate grids for Saturday through Sunday afternoon. Based on the southward progression of the cold front this weekend, the heaviest QPF amounts have continued to trend south and southeast of our forecast area as shown in latest model guidance and WPC QPF forecasts, and this scenario was accepted. A much stronger upper level low pressure system is then slated to move across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains Monday into Tuesday. This suggested path offered by medium range models would prove to be more of a dry, windy, and warm scenario for the OK and TX Panhandles. Medium range models and associated ensemble members are in good agreement with that idea and were accepted. That said, warmer temperatures along with breezy to windy conditions and dry weather are in the offing for Monday and Tuesday followed by less wind for Wednesday. 02 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR conditions will persist at all terminals until early Friday morning when low cloud decks will move S to N across the panhandles. All terminals are expected to drop to MVFR conditions with KAMA possibly going to IFR conditions due to these low clouds. Light rain showers have a middle to high chance of occurring in the southern TX panhandles which can impact KAMA and to a lesser degree KDHT. Going into Friday afternoon conditions will become unstable with a low to mid chance of thunderstorms. Conditions have a high chance of remaining unstable through the evening and then overnight hours of Friday. There is a low chance that these thunderstorms can become strong to severe with hail and winds being the main threats. A tornado threat cannot be ruled out but is extremely unlikely to impact any terminal. During the afternoon hours of Friday the winds will be gusty from the south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 49 76 51 69 / 10 30 40 60 Beaver OK 44 79 49 69 / 10 20 70 30 Boise City OK 42 76 42 66 / 10 30 40 20 Borger TX 50 80 53 72 / 10 30 50 40 Boys Ranch TX 48 80 50 71 / 10 30 40 40 Canyon TX 49 77 51 71 / 10 30 40 60 Clarendon TX 52 73 54 71 / 10 30 40 70 Dalhart TX 43 77 44 67 / 10 30 40 20 Guymon OK 43 77 45 67 / 10 20 60 20 Hereford TX 49 78 51 72 / 10 30 30 60 Lipscomb TX 48 77 52 70 / 10 20 60 40 Pampa TX 49 76 52 68 / 10 30 50 50 Shamrock TX 52 74 54 71 / 10 30 50 70 Wellington TX 54 75 56 72 / 10 30 50 80 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...98