815
FXUS61 KBUF 120807
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
407 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening area of low pressure will slowly cross our region this
morning, resulting in intermittent showers. The precipitation will
gradually taper off today as weak high pressure noses into the area.
While noticeably warmer weather will move in for Monday, it will
also once again become unsettled with increasingly widespread
showers and thunderstorms that will persist into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Regional radar shows the evidence of a surface low over western NY
with rain showers moving counter-clockwise across the region this
morning. Intermittent showers and patchy fog will continue through
daybreak.

A stacked low over western NY this morning will separate as the
midlevel trough moves east today. The surface low will continue
to weaken and become a surface trough across the Genesee Valley/Finger
Lakes region. The loss of mid- level forcing and moisture will
allow showers to dissipate across most of the region this
morning. Showers will likely linger near the surface trough and
the combination of daytime heating and low level moisture will
allow for additional showers to develop this afternoon. Weak
instability may allow a rumble of thunder mid to late afternoon.
Elsewhere, a shortwave ridge will build into the area and
clouds should thin out enough to see some sunshine especially
across the lake plains. Temperatures will reach the upper 50s to
low 60s today.

Mid-level heights and a southerly flow will increase across the
region tonight. Dry weather is expected most of the night with
increasing chances for rain showers across the Niagara Frontier by
Monday morning. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 40s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Two waves will impact the region during this time period. The first
wave near James Bay is expected to drop a cold front into western
and north central New York Monday, where it will eventually stall
and become stationary. Though it is hard to pinpoint duration of
shower and thunderstorm activity, there is high confidence in an
unsettled period. The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms
look to be on Tuesday as a second wave moves east along the
stalled frontal boundary. Will need to monitor model trends as very
weak flow will bring the potential for slow moving convection and
heavy rain. Potential for severe weather looks to be very limited
with unfavorable shear profiles and only marginal instability.
This looks to be warmer period, although degree of warmth will be
dependent on boundary location and rainfall, but high temperatures
should nudge above seasonal normals in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday night...the speed and track of the low will determine
weather we continue to see wet weather areawide or a slow but
gradual drying trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weakening mid-level low centered over the northern Quebec
Wednesday morning will continue to pull northeast into the Canadian
Maritimes by Thursday morning. Meanwhile, ridging to the west across
the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Wednesday will build
across the remainder of the Great Lakes into Thursday night before
the next trough dives southeast across the Central Plains Thursday
night into the start of the weekend.

With weakened low and associated mid-level trough overhead overhead
of the area Wednesday, rain showers associated with the cold front
the crossed the area Tuesday, will gradually end from northwest to
southeast Wednesday.

As the aforementioned mid-level ridging pushes east across the Great
Lakes, associated surface high pressure will also move into the
eastern Great Lakes. This will result in a period of dry weather
Wednesday night thorugh much of Thursday.

The next chance for showers will return Friday and last into the
start of the weekend as warm front pushes across the area. Model
guidance this far out remains differed with the placement and track
of the upper level features and low level features. Therefore, kept
rain shower chances on the lower end due to the lack in confidence.

Expect a gradual warming trend throughout much of next week, with
subtle warming each day. By the end of the week the temperatures
will have rebounded to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weakening area of low pressure is evident on regional radar with
showers rotating counterclockwise across the region. Low level
moisture and showers will persist resulting in fluctuating VFR to IFR
conditions across the region this morning. VFR conditions at KROC
and KART will become MVFR early this morning. Showers are capable of
reducing visibility for a short (1-2 hours) period.

Flight conditions will slowly improve through the morning hours as
the weak low dissolves across the region. A surface trough will be
left behind across the Finger Lakes region and showers will linger
south of KROC through the afternoon. There is a non-zero chance of a
thunderstorm from KDSV to KELZ this afternoon. VFR conditions with
dry conditions are likely tonight.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with the likelihood for showers and
thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Improving conditions with precipitation exiting.
Thursday...VFR weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will be the rule
through Sunday night, although southwest winds becoming northwest
later tonight may approach 15 knots between Dunkirk and Ripley
producing some moderate chop in this area. A more pronounced
southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) will develop on eastern Lake Erie
Sunday afternoon ahead of a warm front approaching from the west
that will bring some light to moderate chop, but waves should mainly
be less than two feet.

Southwesterly winds on Lake Erie/western Lake Ontario and southerly
winds across eastern Lake Ontario will freshen on Monday with near
Small Craft Advisory conditions possible across these aforementioned
areas. Otherwise, winds and waves are expected to remain well below
Small Craft conditions with just some light chop at times through at
least Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK/JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...JM