Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 032056
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
256 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)

Expect most locations, except perhaps the MO bootheel, to stay dry
and mostly cloudy through the afternoon while high pressure meanders
out of the area and weaker low level moisture supply remains.
Short term operational guidance is generally in agreement on the
influence of tonight`s nearby shortwave disturbances. As better
forcing and moisture move in tonight, expect light rain to move
into SE MO and along the TN/KY border where most QPF (<0.25") is
anticipated. Essentially all guidance keeps low levels of
atmosphere in the mid to upper 30s, removing chances of any frozen
precip in our area.

On Sunday, the aforementioned shortwave to our north and inverted
sfc trough to our south allow for limited available forcing in the
Quad State area. Kept pops slight to chance in the AM and expect
coverage to be isolated or scattered at the most with very light
rain. Rain chances will decrease west to east through the day,
essentially out of the area by sunset. Overcast cloud cover will
remain through much of Sunday night. Dry weather is expected Sun
night and Mon as a second sfc high pressure system moves through.

The next precip producing system approaches Monday from south TX
with significantly better forcing than the weekend system as the sfc
low passes adjacent to or through our FA, along with its associated
upper level shortwave energy. While slight chc pops come in Mon
afternoon due to NAM influence, generally not expecting rain until
Mon night when low levels can become sufficiently saturated
again. As with weekend precip, most guidance keeps low levels
above freezing, removing chances of any frozen precip. The blend`s
storm totals give a reasonable half inch to one inch area wide
with the heaviest amounts falling overnight into early Tues. Rain
should move west to east out of the FA by Tues afternoon.

Temperatures through the short term period moderate less than normal
due to cloud cover. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will be in the
lower to middle 40s. Lows bottom out Sunday night in the lower to
middle 30s.

$$

.Long Term...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)

In the wake of a departing negatively tilted 500mb trough a west
southwest flow develops and then intensifies as a 500mb long wave
trough progresses E toward the Mississippi River Valley Tuesday
night/Wednesday. This will set the stage for our next chance of
precipitation.

At the surface the 12Z ECMWF has low pressure developing to our
southwest and races northeast Wednesday night toward the TN valley
but this feature is less pronounced with the 12Z ECMWF than with the
previous run. If this scenario evolved this would delay the cold
air infiltration and would lessen or delay, but not necessarily
eliminate the chances for a change over to snow Wed night. However
the GFS is absent of this solution and thus generates much less
QPF. The 12Z GFS is a bit slower than its previous run on
precipitation nosing into the FA (about 00z Thu vs. 21Z Wed) and
it still generates no more than a few hundredths of an inch of QPF.
The ECMWF yields much greater QPF (1/4" plus) but overall will
lean toward the colder, lesser QPF solution of the GFS. This
would mean that more of the precipitation would be in the form of
snow, albeit only light snow or flurries. This is even more the
case with the morning GFS run which brings the cold air in sooner.
In fact, the GFS max temp Wed at MVN is 7 degrees colder compared
to the previous run - although only a degree or two colder
elsewhere Wed, as well as Thu.

Given model differences and subsequent marginal confidence
levels, will maintain a rain/snow chance north Wednesday evening
and rain/snow chance south overnight with a lingering
flurries/light snow showers early Thursday morning in the cold NW
flow aloft.

What is far more certain is the cold air that will be surging
into the region late Wednesday into Thursday as arctic high
pressure builds in. Again this is an arctic high and the air will
by far be the coldest of the season. It will start out cold at
the beginning of the extended and only get colder until some
moderation in temperatures by the weekend. Temperatures will be
well below normal for this time of year with lows in the teens
Thursday night and max temperatures only around or below freezing
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 256 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon. Lowering cigs
and light rain will enter from the south and spread NE overnight.
Expect MVFR cigs/vsbys to develop at KCGI/KPAH and areas further
south and west. For Sun AM, expect MVFR cigs/vsbys to work NE
toward KOWB, with IFR cigs further south at times. East winds
generally AOB 10 kts tonight, becoming ESE Sunday.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BP2
LONG TERM....RLS


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