Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 302320
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
620 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Satellite clearly shows the Low is rotating across the mid Ohio
river valley attm. Spiral bands of showers are rotating across the
CWA, esp east of the Mississippi river, and will continue to do so
thru the daylight hours again, diminishing with/shortly after
sunset. Low clouds will again hang around tonight, even as the Low
starts to lift north again, headed back toward the Great Lakes.

Its close proximity means we`ll continue shower chances again
tmrw, albeit not as much as today. Highest chances will again be
in our north and east. Tmrw nite, these chances will diminish for
good, as the Low finally makes its way back to the Great Lakes.
It`ll then lift on out from there, slowly dragging its upper trof
with it, across the lower Ohio river valley, Sunday. While it`s
possible that could still touch off a shower, chances by then will
be diminished enough to preclude mention, with silent pop if any.

These coolish temps hang around again/into the weekend, under the
influence of the Low, but moderation is just around the corner.
60s might sneak back into the low end 70s tmrw before making a
bit better recovery into the 70s Sunday. Lows will stay in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

A rather benign weather pattern is expected during the long-term
period in our region. With the exception of a small window of
shower/tstm potential along a cold front later in the week,
conditions will be dry. High temps will be mainly in the mid 70s to
mid 80s, with lows mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

As far as the synoptic overview, weak ridging at the surface and
aloft will build eastward over our region on Monday. This ridging
will bring lots of clear sky and light winds. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 70s with abundant sun.

Weak ridging will be nudged slightly to our east Tuesday, and then
attention will be focused on a strong 500 mb trough over the
northern Plains. The models differ on the details of the speed and
configuration of the trough. The general idea is that the trough
will flatten out the ridge over the eastern states late in the
week, leaving a quasi-zonal flow pattern over much of the country.
This will allow a cold front to swing eastward across our region
Thursday. The models indicate modest moisture return ahead of the
front, with sfc dew points reaching about 60. Forecast pops will be
in the low chance category, mostly for Wed night and Thursday.

Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s ahead of the front on
Wednesday, falling back into the lower and mid 70s behind the front
Friday. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

More robust convection anticipated during the first two hours of
00z Saturday Routine WFO PAH TAF forecast period, then again in
the 10z-14z time frame during transitional phase of ceilings and
visibilities due to dynamic changes within banded regions around
closed low. With this package attempted to focus on mean ceilings
within the gradient of 5.5C/km lapse rates and dropping surface
visibilities with surface relative humidities between 97-99
percent. The complicating factor will also be the changing surface
wind flow as the low continues to reform and slowly move from
central Kentucky northward into Indiana through Sunday.

Most ceilings and visibilities remain either in the VFR or MVFR
category, with only brief dips in the visibility in to IFR
category during the transitional periods.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith


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