Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 210840

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
340 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Stratus clouds that have been shrouding many area east of the MS
River overnight will gradually push east with H50 trof this
morning, leaving most areas of western KY/sw IN with plenty of
sunshine by noon. However, chilly high pressure nudging eat into
the MS River Valley will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to
lower 60s despite the return to sunshine. In fact, will not rule
out patchy frost later tonight as winds slacken underneath the
high pressure system and skies remain clear. Do not think it will
be a widespread event, so no headlines planned at this time. Will
cover with HWO product and possibly an SPS.

High pressure will begin to push a little farther south over the
weekend, allowing winds to turn swly and a warming trend to
commence. Highs in the 60s most locations on Saturday will be
followed by 70s on Sunday. Looking to be a very nice Fall

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is fairly high
due to good model agreement. The blended model initialization was
used with little to no changes.

From Monday through the early part of Wednesday, high pressure at
the surface will define our weather with slowly moderating
temperatures. Northwest flow aloft will keep us dry. High
temperatures will warm back above normal with readings in the lower
and middle 70s. Overnight lows will warm a little each night with
readings by Thursday morning in the lower to middle 50s.

High pressure will move off to the east by midweek allowing a cold
front to approach the region. This will bring a chance of showers
and isolated thunderstorms beginning Wednesday afternoon. Included
thunder where MUCAPE was present.


Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

With the approach and passage of an upper level trough, MVFR cigs
will shift east this morning, leaving even our eastern TAF sites
will generally clear skies and unlimited vsbys. Winds will
continue out of the northwest to north generally AOB 10 knots
through the first half of the period, possibly gusting up to 15
knots after 15Z, then diminish to AOB 5 knots after 00Z.




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