Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 020452

1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 950 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The latest convection-resolving models indicate that a split will
occur with the convection currently near KSTL moving off to the east
northeast, and the convection over southwest Missouri propagating
slowly southward through the overnight hours. This seems plausible
with the 0-3km shear vectors generally from the west southwest. The
latest satellite and regional radar imagery are already beginning to
show signs of this evolution.

Figure that scattered to numerous showers and storms will
eventually work into our northwest counties, and especially the
I-64 corridor of southern Illinois somewhere close to 05Z, so have
updated primarily just to slow down the progression into/across our
region and show a bit more hourly detail through the overnight
hours. Still cannot rule out a strong storm or two, but heavy
rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns through the
night. The storms should generally be progressive enough once they
get here, to keep any flooding potential in check.

Kept the likely PoPs by daybreak through much of west Kentucky,
but won`t be surprised if the coverage is more scattered down
there by then.

The front will move south through the area Tuesday. PoPs for
convection will accompany the front, generally likely in the
morning, tapering off in the afternoon. After somewhat of a lull,
chances of elevated convection will push in from the west by 12z
Wednesday with chances pushing east Wednesday/Wednesday night. Temps
were a blend of MOS and Raw Model output.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Models keep some light QPF across mainly our far eastern counties on
Thursday with some lingering moisture and instability, so kept some
slight to low chance pops going for these areas.  Loss of heating
will result in dry conditions Thursday night.  An approaching cold
front Friday will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
Friday and Friday night, with the highest chances through the day
Saturday with the frontal passage.  GFS and ECMWF are in good
agreement on timing, with precip chances quickly dwindling late
Saturday, while the GEM lingers precip into Saturday night.  Prefer
the GFS/ECMWF solutions, and after high chance pops on Saturday,
went with dry conditions for Saturday night.  Behind the front,
drier and cooler air will filter in the region, with below seasonal
temperatures expected Sunday into Monday.


Issued at 1150 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Main aviation concern is the complex of thunderstorms entering
southern IL and southeast MO as of midnight. These storms are
associated with an upper level disturbance that will move east
overnight. The storms should hold together overnight as they feed on
a moist southwest low level jet from 35 to 45 knots at 850 mb. The
time frame for their passage at the taf sites is mainly 08z to 13z.
Some storms could develop over the kevv/kowb area even earlier than

Once the storms exit the region...broken cumulus clouds will bubble
up with daytime heating. Bases should rise from mvfr to vfr levels
by noon or so. Skies will then become mostly clear with loss of
daytime heating around sunset.




Short term...DRS/CN
Long term...RST
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