Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281129 AAA

529 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2014

Issued at 530 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Relatively high forecast confidence in the short term period.

In the wake of a frontal passage last evening, high pressure at the
surface and flow aloft becoming more zonal will continue to push
deeper moisture off to our south and east. As a result, rain and/or
drizzle over the southeast half of our CWA at the time of this
writing will gradually shift to the south and east throughout the
day today.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft should
keep the region dry with near normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Sfc high pressure will be centered over western Nebraska and
stretching east across most of the CONUS to start out the period.
The high will sink south and then east with time, leaving us dry
through Thursday. In the upper levels, a weak wave travels southeast
toward the area but dampens out with time. The only real result
locally will be colder temperatures for Wednesday. Highs may not
even reach the freezing mark for some locations...after a cold night
on Tuesday night.

But by Thursday, we will see upper heights start to rise as our next
weather system gets its act together in the four corners region. An
upper level low closes off over southern CA Tuesday night and slowly
moves east with time. Moisture begins to increase dramatically after
06Z Fri as the flow becomes southerly/ southwesterly throughout the
column. Chances for precipitation will start late Thursday night and
may start out as a wintry mix on the onset. Soundings from the
GFS/ECMWF indicate the possibility for freezing rain/sleet in the
south with a possibility of snow/sleet further north. With it being
day 5 and a lot can change from now until then, with the storm track
adjusting over the next few days. Will try to make things simple and
convey the possibility of wintry weather for those time periods and
we can fine tune from there.

Things warm up though as we go through the day on Friday, in which
rain should be the precip type by Friday afternoon and evening. The
rain will continue into the evening/overnight hours as the upper low
moves into the central Plains states and then into MO.

By 12Z Saturday, models indicate the main sfc low associated with
the system will be situated just to our north but then rapidly move
northeast throughout the day. This means precipitation will be
ending from west to east throughout the morning hours.


Issued at 530 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

As low level moisture decreases and high pressure overspreads the
region, MVFR cigs at all sites should become VFR from west to east
starting around 21Z at KCGI. Northerly winds AOB 10 knots will
become northeast and decrease to AOB 5 knots after 00Z.




LONG TERM/FIRE WX...CW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.