Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 241243
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
643 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

A warming trend will continue today as southerly breezes increase
ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds gusts up to around 20
MPH or so may still add a bit of a nip to the air, even though
most locations will make it up close to 60 degrees. The cold
front will slip through the forecast area from nw to se tonight.
Once again, very little low level moisture or convergence is
expected, and the mid level forcing will be meager. Therefore,
will leave measurable rain chances out along the front as it
passes through tonight...though cannot rule out some occasional
sprinkles.

Drier air will filter back in behind the front Saturday. However,
the air behind the front will not be as chilly as the previous
frontal passage. Cooler temps will actually lag behind the front.
Thus, most locations will still see at or above normal temps from
the mid 50s to lower 60s Saturday afternoon. Sunday will be a bit
cooler though as the center of high pressure moves over over the
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

From an initialization standpoint, the Canadian (CMCnh) and ECMWF
were preferred guidance for this package, with the GFS leaning
closer to the Canadian solution.

The overall trend appears to be returning to a slower and further
north evolution of the Northern Pacific system into the U.S on
Monday. This would a little warmer temperature solution and later
onset of precipitation into the area.

Timing/placement issue of the a southwest U.S. 500mb low and central
Canadian low beginning 12z Tuesday will make it somewhat difficult
to determine whether precipitation will move into the area from the
west Wednesday morning or afternoon.  There is higher local
confidence for the onset of precipitation Wednesday afternoon,
leaving by 18z (noon) Thursday.  However, given the range of
solutions between the ECMWF and CMCnh guidance, as well as
collaboration issues, will keep at least a chance for rain from
Wednesday into early Thursday. As we move closer to the event time,
suspect rain chances will be confined to an 18-24 hour time period
from start to finish.

Given the anticipated warm temperature solution, do not anticipate
any precipitation type concerns at this time in the extended. Made a
slight upward shift in temperatures from Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

South winds below 10 kts will increase and become gusty on this
afternoon. The gusts will likely subside after 00Z, but winds
will remain around 10 kts. Otherwise...VFR throughout today and
tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith



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