Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 231709
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1109 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Happy Thanksgiving! An upper level ridge was positioned over the
western U.S. early this morning, continuing the northwest flow
pattern across the central U.S. including the SGF CWA. Surface
high pressure has been nudging southeastward over the area tonight
with a light southerly wind returning. Not much in the way of
moisture over the area with this upper pattern not really
conducive for the return of low level moisture.

So our main forecast focus will be with the winds on both Friday
and Monday and the potential for fire weather issues as we remain
dry across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

For Thanksgiving, surface high pressure will be centered to our
southeast with southerly winds returning to the area. Temperatures
should warm back into the mid to upper 50s with plenty of
sunshine. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten up later
tonight in advance of the next system and should see a steady
southerly surface wind. Temperatures will be warmer with lows in
the mid 30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Fairly strong low level warm advection is expected on Friday with
gusty southerly winds across the area...some gusts up to 30 mph
possible. RH values in the afternoon will dip into the mid 30s to
low 40s which will give some locations elevated fire weather
conditions on Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be warm with
highs from the mid 60s to around 70.

Another dry frontal boundary will move through Friday night, but
temperatures will still be mild on Saturday with highs in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

Another strong system will approach the area on Monday with strong
southerly winds setting up over the area. These winds are expected
to be even stronger than Fridays winds with 30 to 40 mph possible.
Highs will again be in the 60s. It looks like another elevated to
significant fire weather day.

The Tuesday and Wednesday time frame next week are fairly iffy for
now. Models showing significant differences with the GFS taking a
very progressive system through Tuesday night and the ECMWF having
more of a closed system move through the area much slower on
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Will have low end pops for Wed/Wed
night which goes closer to the ECMWF at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Surface winds will be from the southwest through today, and
become more southerly early Friday morning.

High pressure was building in from the west, and will continue to
offer fair weather across the region over the next few days.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at
this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer


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