Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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233
FXUS63 KSGF 210602
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1202 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Precipitation was ending from west to east with the back edge now
mainly freezing rain with a little sleet. Have allowed the the
winter weather advisory for southeast Kansas and portions of
western Missouri expire at midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

A sharp cold front was cutting its way across the Missouri Ozarks
early this afternoon. The front was dividing temperatures in the
low 70s across south central Missouri from temperatures in the low
30s over extreme southeast Kansas and west central MO. Some light
freezing rain was also occurring behind the front where
temperatures were below freezing. Several waves of low pressure
were along the frontal boundary and there was some instability out
ahead of the front, which was helping in some embedded
thunderstorm activity. A few stronger storms may be able to
produce some wind gusts up to 50 mph this afternoon over south
central Missouri, but overall the severe risk is very low.

A large band of showers and embedded thunderstorms stretched from
southeast Texas through the Missouri Ozarks and into southern
Wisconsin and the L.P. of Michigan. In advance of the front, some
PW values near 1.40" or near record values for this time of year
are leading to efficient rain producing showers and storms.

The risk of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will
continue ahead of the front during the remainder of the afternoon
and tonight as the front slides southeast through the area. Two to
three inches of rain is expected south and east of the I-44
corridor. A flood watch remains in effect through tonight for much
of the area.

Colder air will move in behind the front, with temperatures
eventually dropping below freezing along and northwest of the I-44
corridor by midnight and a Branson to Salem line by daybreak
Wednesday. There will be rainfall trailing the cold front (albeit
not as much as ahead of the front) and some of this will fall
within the below freezing air mass as freezing rain. We are
expecting generally between a tenth to quarter of an inch of ice
(tonight through Wednesday night). Most of this will impact
elevated surfaces as the ground temperatures have been warm the
past few days. A winter weather advisory is in effect until
midnight for northwestern portions of our CWA and from 6 pm this
evening through 10 AM Wednesday for areas northwest of a Branson
to Salem line.

Temperatures on Wednesday will generally be in the 30s across the
area with many areas meandering above the freezing mark again
during the day. So any ice accumulation from tonight should melt
or at least begin to. Most of the remaining precipitation during
the day Wednesday will be over south central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Another disturbance will begin to lift north out of Oklahoma late
Wednesday into Wednesday night, spreading into eastern Kansas and
far western Missouri with another round of freezing rain. At
present, most of this activity should remain north and west of the
area, although any shift of this main axis to the southeast would
cause additional ice accumulation for extreme southeast Kansas
into western Missouri. As of now, we are only expecting a few
additional hundredths of ice there for Wednesday night.

After a mostly dry day on Thursday, moisture will again be working
northward into the area and additional showers with embedded
thunderstorms and heavy rain will be possible beginning Thursday
night and continuing into Saturday night. We are forecasting the
main heavy rainfall axis southeast of the Interstate 44 corridor
where another 2 to 4 inches of rain will be possible. Drier air
will then work in to the area for the rest of the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Back edge of precipitation extended from near
Shell Knob Missouri to Versailles Missouri moving eastward, but some
light freezing drizzle was begnning to show up behind the main
band. IFR flight conditions will persist through much of the
overnight hours, with ceilings rising into MVFR category towards
morning and remain there through much of the day before decreasing
again Thursday night. The terminals could see some more
precipitation later on Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ055>058-067>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ056>058-
     068>071-078>083-088>095-101>103.

KS...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Raberding
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Raberding



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