Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 301056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
556 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

The low pressure center that brought scattered storms to the area
last night will make its way slowly across the Ozarks region
during the day today. As the low tracks over the area, scattered
showers are expected to occur through the morning and into this
afternoon. Through the morning hours. a few rumbles of thunders
may occur across the eastern Ozarks but should be the exception.

The low will keep the region under cloudy skies and have knocked
high temperatures for today down as a result of the combination
of precipitation and cloud cover. This should result in highs in
the middle 50s during the afternoon.

The low will track east of the area tonight bringing the rain
chances to an end for a few days. Temperatures will fall into the
lower 40s as skies slowly clear. Will need to watch for the
possibility of some fog with the wet ground and clearing

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Ridging will be ongoing Friday morning through Saturday allowing
the region so see a return of sunshine and temperatures climbing
through the 50s and 60s on Friday and into the 70s on Saturday.
This will occur as winds shift out of the south.

The ridge will begin to move east late Saturday night as an upper
level trough digs into Texas and allows moisture to return along
with breezy winds. This will bring showers to the area for Sunday
into Monday. Models do bring some instability into the region
which would make isolated to scattered thunderstorms a

A brief break in the rain comes Tuesday before the next system
moves across the plains and into the Ozarks region Tuesday evening
into Wednesday and finally moves east of the area Wednesday night.

The long range models differ on the pattern for the end of next
week but in general the pattern looks slightly dryer for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Low end MVFR ceilings and occasional visibilities drops to around
5sm will be possible later this morning through the afternoon
today with patchy mist and scattered light showers from time to
time. Winds will be around 10 knots southwesterly with a gradual
shift to westerly and then northwesterly by late this evening.
There is some potential for ceilings to drop to IFR late morning
into the afternoon and have mentioned this in TEMPO groups. Clouds
will slowly begin to try to clear out by the end of the TAF
period late tonight. Will have to monitor trends for potential fog
development late tonight but confidence is very low at this time.




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