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000
FXUS63 KSGF 090446
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1046 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

A gloomy day over a large part of the cwfa continues. A sfc front
extends from west central AR into far southeast MO. Most areas are
in the 30s, with some isolated sites areas near freezing over the
western cwfa. Still have some 40s along the MO/AR line in south
central MO closer to the front.

Reports from spotters, MPING, and a couple of cooperative
observers have reported some sleet and snow mixing in with rain at times.

Temperatures should be fairly steady through the afternoon.
An earlier conversation with KDOT indicated road temperatures were
in the mid 30s over the far western cwfa. Some slight cooling below
800mb will likely turn light precip into snow/sleet late over the
next few hours. Could see some minor accumulation in spots once we
cool a little at the sfc and the sun sets, but am not expecting any
widespread adverse travel impacts. The precip is expected to end
from nw to se this evening, maybe lasting just past midnight in
some spots over the southeast cwfa as the shortwave and sfc front
shift away from the area.

High pressure will build into the area for Sunday with warmer
conditions. Low clouds and maybe some stratus build down fog may
linger over southern MO early Sunday morning, but it should clear
fairly quickly.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

High pressure will shift south of the area for Monday with
southwest winds developing. Typically this general setup can
produce a nice warm up, and guidance has been trending that way for
the past couple of days. Afternoon temperatures well up into the
60s with a few low 70s seems plausible. Drier air aloft mixing down
should produce RH values down into the 20s for some areas with an
elevated fire danger to finer/smaller grass and wind exposed leaf
litter fuels.

Tuesday will be slightly warmer with a bit less wind with progged
readings in the 70s expected to be more common during the
afternoon.

Tuesday night...Guidance is coming into better agreement with a
shortwave expected to dig southeast into the central Plains Tue
night. The associated sfc low and cold front is expected to
quickly move through the area Tue night with a rain-snow
transition possible. The ECMWF is still stronger with this
potential system, bringing colder low level air southward and it
is also more bullish on the precip amounts versus the GEM and
GFS. All models are trending a bit faster, with the bulk of the
precip exiting early Wednesday.

Thursday-Friday-Saturday: Looks nice with mid level height rises,
s-sw winds developing, and warmer temperatures. A weak shortwave
may support a dry sfc trough passage late Friday or Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

Precipitation has ended across the forecast area with clearing sky
starting to take place from northwest to southeast. With light
wind and recent rainfall, am expecting fog to quickly develop
after sky clears out and have all 3 sites dropping down to a half
mile overnight. Should start to clear out by 15-16z as fog burns
off. SREF probs have even higher chances developing for tomorrow
night which is outside of this TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg