Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 261946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
246 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight into Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

A cold front extending from near Branson to Rolla will continue to
move east through the eastern CWA. Convection along the front has
dissipated though showers and isolated weak thunderstorms have
formed over southeast Kansas into northwest OK ahead of a weak
impulse moving northeast over central OK. Short range and
convective models depict this activity diminishing in coverage
this evening...with better coverage over the western CWA.

The next weak wave will lead to the redevelopment of scattered
showers that will move into the western CWA late tonight into
early Wednesday. Like todays activity coverage will be less than
most would desire with amounts remaining on the light side.

Surface high pressure will build southward into the Central Plains
on Wednesday...ushering in drier and cooler air.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

With the surface high keeping the region a tad cooler than normal
through the end of the work week...a broad upper ridge will form
over the western half of the nation that will translate eastward
into the Ozarks warming temperatures to slightly above normal over
the weekend.

The next chance of rain will come as a fast moving upper low moves
from the Washington coast into the southern Saskatchewan by
Sunday with the associated cold front draping southward into the
plains. Like other systems before it...the availability of
moisture will be poor so widespread rainfall will be in question.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

A cold front will push from northwest to southeast across the area
this afternoon and early this evening. Ceilings will lower behind
the front with winds shifting to the north. MVFR ceilings are a
high probability tonight and Wednesday morning. There may
initially be some pockets of VFR ceilings this evening before
MVFR becomes well established. There are a few weather models
indicating IFR ceilings for a few hours early Wednesday morning.
However, confidence remains low in this scenario.




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