Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180511 AAC
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...Mesoscale Discussion and Update to Aviation Section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2014

Convection beginning to show its cards in the past half hour with
a band of storms lining up from Manhattan, KS to Fort Scott, KS to
near Crane, MO. A very modest low level jet is producing just
enough isentropic upglide near the 310 K layer that is tapping
into elevated CAPE in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range to produce this
activity. Training of storms will be the main concern tonight,
with a risk for flash flooding in areas that encounter numerous
storm passages. Otherwise, there is a risk for hail, mainly in the
dime/nickel range, though occasionally reaching low end severe
limits. This activity is rather elevated, thus the wind risk is
low.

Fog has become more prevalent in areas along and southeast of the
plateau during the past hour. Have hoisted the dense fog advisory
in these areas with visibility frequently being reduced to one
quarter mile or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Well its been a little more active than previously thought. Models
did not handle today`s situation very well and confidence in
tonight`s forecast is low.

A frontal boundary is currently stalled from roughly near
Lamar to Roaring River State Park. West of that boundary
temperatures are in the middle 80s and over the eastern Missouri
Ozarks...temperatures were in the 60s. Convection continues to
regenerate near that boundary and has shown signs of moving slowly
westward.

The short term models are in a bit of a disagreement on the next
12 hours. But the over all trend was to move the axis of
convection slowly westward this evening. Temperatures will be
again tricky tonight through tomorrow. One note to add is there is
another very subtle mid level wave on the Water Vapor imagery over
western Nebraska that is riding southeastward it the mid level flow.

The big question mark is how this will interact with the boundary
in the area overnight and if there will be a similar repeat of
overnight convection developing late tonight through early
tomorrow morning. Will maintain highest chances for additional
convection over portions of southeast Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri for the rest of the evening and tonight.

Even though we have seen some heavy rainfall in the Springfield
area from earlier convection...no headlines for any flash flood
watches because the new development tonight should be southwest of
where the heavy rainfall fell today. There will still be a chance
for an isolated strong storm or two through tonight with marginal
severe hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph with the strongest
convection.

Will have the chance of rain diminishing through out the day on
Thursday as upper level ridging begins to move in and cut off rain
chances. Temperatures will be warmest out west tomorrow...low 80s
and coolest out east...low 70s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Warm and dry weather with high pressure in the upper levels on
Friday and for most of the day on Saturday. A front will move in
late afternoon and overnight Saturday to bring additional showers
and thunderstorms. Look at the upper level flow and the leftover
moisture from the tropical system out in the southwest U.S...looks
like that will mainly stay southwest of our area and most of the
energy with the trough will stay up in the Great Lakes Region over
the weekend. Will continue to maintain the chance for rain this
weekend but not expecting anything heavy at this time.

The front clears through on Sunday with gradual clearing and
drying. A Canadian airmass moves in for early next week with
seasonable Fall like weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2014

Fog has developed in a more organized fashion along and south of
the plateau, with BBG at 1/4 for the past hour or so. To the
northwest, stratus has maintained itself, for the most part in the
MVFR to low end VFR range. Will continue to watch for fog
potential at SGF given moist surface conditions. Starting to see
tonight`s band of storms set up. Generally in a northwest to south
east fashion from near Fort Scott, KS to just west of BBG. For
areas along and west of this band (including JLN) scattered to
numerous storms are expected with IFR restrictions beneath the
heavier downpours. Activity may briefly shunt eastward enough to
affect SGF/BBG, but this shouldn`t be until around/after sunrise.
This activity will dissipate through the morning hours with flight
conditions improving to VFR during the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Thursday FOR MOZ082-083-091-
     092-095>098-102>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






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