Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250501
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1201 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

...06Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Looks like we are about to transition into a pattern change from
the hot and humid conditions of last week to more moderate
temperatures and at least a chance of rain each day during this
forecast period.

Currently in the upper levels...there is a flat ridge situated
over the southern tier of states with an upper level trough near
Lake Winnipeg in southern Canada. As this upper level trough makes
its way into Quebec on Monday...it will begin to suppress the
ridge forcing it to retrograde to the west.

This will allow a surface front...which is currently situated from
eastern Iowa across northwest Missouri to a low over south-central
Kansas...to drop southward into the region. This will increase the
chances for rain across the region beginning late this afternoon
into this evening. Already seeing widely scattered convection
across south-central Missouri.

The combination of the breakdown of the upper level
ridge...increased cloud cover...and widely scattered convection
should hold down high temperatures on Monday to more seasonable
levels. Thus...will let the excessive heat warning expire at 8 PM
this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

As the upper ridge continues to retrograde to the west...the area
transitions to a northwest flow pattern in the upper levels.
Meanwhile...the surface front stalls out across the area and
meanders in the vicinity as weak waves pass through in the upper
level flow. As the low level jet sets up during the overnight
hours...the possibility exists for MCS development each night.
Meanwhile...during the day...the presence of any left over
boundaries...cold pools...and MCVs as well as daytime heating will
contribute to producing afternoon and evening pulse type
thunderstorms.

Therefore...will need to carry slight chance to chance PoPs in
nearly all periods. With the increase in clouds and convective
activity...temperatures should remain near seasonal levels with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the low
to mid 70s.

The surface front once again approaches the region Thursday into
Friday which could moderate temperatures a bit more. By next
Sunday...it looks like the upper ridge could once again begin
building back into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Thunderstorms will increase north of the terminals early this
morning, and eventually move southeast toward the TAF sites
toward daybreak. Activity will be somewhat scattered in nature,
especially later this morning, and have indicated VCTS and PROB30
groups to account. Scattered thunderstorms will continue through
much of the day, before becoming less widespread Monday evening.

Conditions should generally be VFR outside of thunderstorms, with
MVFR to occasional IFR in and near thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Boxell



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