Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 231745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1145 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 159 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

After what has been a wet week so far the Ozarks will see a brief
break in the rain this morning before the next round of rain
begins to push into the area this afternoon. With much of the area
already having received 2 to 4 inches of rain the addition 1 to 3
inches expected starting this afternoon through tonight will
likely produce flooding across portions of the area. The most
likely locations would be mainly south of the I-44 corridor south
and east of a Branson to Rolla line.

Will continue the current Flood Watch area as this remains the
most likely area for the expected heavy rainfall. Temperatures
will be in the upper 40s to middle 50s today and remain in the
upper 30s from Nevada to Warsaw tonight with areas near West
Plains only falling to around the 50 degree mark.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across far southern
Missouri initially this afternoon and spread north through the
overnight hours thanks to strong jet dynamics and modest
instability across the area. This will aid in producing in excess
of an inch of rainfall tonight into early Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 159 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Moderate to heavy rainfall will be ongoing through the day
Saturday and into Saturday night. The period of heaviest rainfall,
especially for the south central Missouri, should occur Saturday
afternoon into the evening hours. This would be in addition to the
rain Friday night. Will need to watch this period, covered by the
current Flood Watch, as the system develops Saturday.

The area will finally see a break in the rain Sunday into Tuesday
as high pressure moves across the region. We will have to enjoy
this rain free period as another storm system develops Tuesday
night as the first of two more rounds or rain move across the
Ozarks. Additional rain Wednesday night, which could again be
heavy at times, may impact locations that see the heaviest rains
today and Saturday.

It does appear at this time however, that a dryer pattern
develops for the end of next week into next weekend. The models
have significant differences this far out however.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

An upper level low is located well west of the area late this
morning. Moisture is being pulled north into the region ahead of
the low which will result in IFR to LIFR ceilings continuing
through much of the TAF period. Visibilities will be reduced at
times too, especially this evening and tonight.

An area of moderate to locally heavy rainfall has also developed
across northeastern Oklahoma into northern Kansas ahead of the low
late this morning. This rainfall will spread northeast into and
through the area this afternoon into this evening/tonight. A
rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out be coverage in any
thunder will be limited. The rain may become more in the way of
drizzle overnight into Saturday morning.


MO...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for MOZ070-071-081>083-



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