Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 262348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.UPDATE...

Currently monitoring southeast Kansas and western Missouri for the
development of deep convection over the next several hours.

Water vapor over southeast Kansas indicated a disturbance
approaching the Ozarks. Storms have developed out across the Flint
Hills and east of Bartlesville Oklahoma.

We expect this trend to continue into the Ozarks this evening and
overnight.

We started to get data from our evening RAOB, which measured only
42 j/kg of inhibition from a mixed layer parcel. The level of free
convection was measured at 775mb, which will allow future updrafts
to reach into boundary layer moisture at least through the evening
hours, and potentially through the overnight period.

There is a pocket of drier air between 800 and 900mb that would
support a risk for damaging wind gusts with any organized updrafts
tonight. Some cape exists within the hail growth zone, so we can
not ruled out a marginal hail risk either.

0-3 km shear vectors will orient west southwest to east northeast through
the overnight hours ranging from 30 to 40 knots. Any north to
south oriented line segment will be capable of organizing and
producing an enhanced risk for damaging wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Not much change to the overall forecast. Shortwave near the TX
Panhandle/western OK border will move east to the four state
KS/OK/MO/AR region by 12z. Increasing and veering low level flow
late tonight is expected to support a cluster of showers/tstms,
mainly for the sw or southern portion of the cwfa. HRRR is the
most bullish with other high resolution models not as aggressive,
but still have some signals for precip. Will need to watch rain
amounts in some of our more saturated areas of the western cwfa,
but not seeing anything that makes me overly concerned at this
point. Any hydro issues will likely be small scale/mesoscale.

Nocturnal precip should weaken as it moves east Wed morning, but
isolated-scattered diurnal development could occur late in the
day. However, overall shortwave ridging in the wake of the exiting
trough will probably suppress chances to some extent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A broad upper level trough will shift east into the Rockies Thu
with ripples in the sw flow aloft. Hard to pinpoint a period that
won`t have at least some chance of showers/tstms. A sw-ne oriented sfc
front is expected to move Fri night/Sat as what is left of the
shortwave approaches the region.

It looks like we may see at least a brief period of drier weather
later Sunday into Monday as a Midwestern sfc high noses south into
the region in the wake of the sfc front. There is at least general
agreement with medium range guidance in keeping a weak upper level
shear axis over the area by Tuesday but with only modest chances
for precip given drier air expected to be in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to closely monitor radar trends this evening and tonight.

A weak disturbance was approaching the region from the west, and
is expected to trigger showers and thunderstorms through the
night.

Any storms that directly impacts an airport will temporarily create
lower flight conditions with reduced visibilities. There is also a
risk for damaging wind gusts and a marginal risk for large hail
with any storms that can become organized.

Otherwise look for southerly breezes at 5 to 10 mph over the next
24 hours.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer





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