Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 271807

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
107 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

A pretty cool morning, perhaps one of the coolest so far this
autumn is currently ongoing across the Missouri Ozarks and far
southeastern Kansas. Temperatures across the region ranged from
the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. Skies were clear and winds were
calm, which has allowed for us to radiate very well.

Today should be fairly similar to yesterday with perhaps
temperatures warming a couple of degrees higher, which should
still be around average for late September. A westerly surface
flow will help moderate temperatures a bit overnight. Again,
although just slightly warmer, still around average.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

A reinforcing shot of cooler air will begin to move into the
region on Wednesday. Surface winds will shift northerly and cooler
air will begin to usher into the area.

Aloft, a upper level low will drop southward from the Great Lakes
region into the Tennessee River Valley by mid to late week. This
will keep temperatures much cooler across the eastern third of the
nation. With dry northwesterly flow, rain chances look to remain
east of our forecast area through the weekend.

The Upper level low across the east will begin to lift northward
into Canada by early next week. A more zonal flow is expected for
our area through the end of the period. The only hope for rain at
this juncture will be perhaps mid week next week as a Pacific
frontal boundary approaches the region.

Confidence is high regarding the overall lack of rainfall and near
average temperatures expected into the first week of October.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFs: VFR conditions are expected at
the TAF sites this afternoon through Wednesday morning. Winds will
be out of the west generally at 6 to 11kt this afternoon and will
decrease to less than 6kt this evening into tonight.

A cold front will then approach from the north Wednesday morning.
A dry air mass is in place and no precipitation is expected with
the front across the area. Winds will become morning northerly
behind the front by midday Wednesday.




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