Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 042339
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
539 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

The system that brought the wet weather this weekend will exit to
the east tonight. Clouds will gradually erode from the west
tonight. With a moist boundary layer and light wind expect areas
of fog to develop overnight into Monday morning. The fog could be
locally dense. In addition, with temperatures falling to near
freezing some freezing fog cannot be ruled out early Monday
morning.

The temporary break from the rain will persist through much of the
day Monday as surface high pressure moves off to the east. However
clouds will be on the increase by the afternoon as a well defined
mid level trough of low pressure lifts northeast from Texas. Light
rain may develop across far south central Missouri during the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

The aforementioned system will track across the Lower Mississippi
Valley Monday night. A shield of rain will spread northward into
southern Missouri Monday night with rainfall focused across south
central Missouri and eastern Ozarks. The rain will taper off
Tuesday morning as this system tracks to the northeast across the
Ohio River Valley. Tuesday will be the last seasonably cool day
before the coldest airmass of the season arrives mid week.

An Arctic front will surge southeastward across the region
Wednesday as an upper level trough swings from the Rockies into
the central U.S. Good synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system along with adequate moisture to generate the potential for
wintry precipitation. Confidence that we will see light snow
continues to increase as models continue to converge on a
solution.

General solution is to bring the Arctic front across the Ozarks
during the day Wednesday with the development of weak surface low
pressure across Arkansas. Light precipitation in the form of rain
or rain snow mix will develop initially from the west during day.
Expect light snow to develop from west to east Wednesday afternoon
as cold air advection intensifies. Light snow will fall into
Wednesday evening before ending from the west.

Minor snow accumulations are certaintly possible but too early to
pin point exact amounts. We will have to closely monitor potential
impacts during the Wednesday afternoon and evening commute. Even
light snow amounts can impact travel here in the Ozarks. Stay
tuned to the latest weather information.

The Arctic air will settle into Ozarks Wednesday night through
Friday with lows falling into the lower teens. Wind chill values
will into the single digits to near zero Wednesday and Thursday
nights.

Some moderation in temperature is expected heading into next
weekend but temperatures will remain below normal. A passing upper
level disturbance may bring some light precipitation to the area
late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Clouds are quickly clearing from west to east early this evening.
A brief period of MVFR ceilings will remain over the KBBG site
early this evening but VFR conditions will prevail by the mid
evening hours.

Overnight into early Monday morning fog is expected to develop
across the Missouri Ozarks with MVFR to IFR visibilities possible.
Winds will be light and variable overnight. Monday morning winds
will return to the southeast and increase slightly with any fog
burning off by the late morning hours Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise



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