Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 290458
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

A weak cold front is working its way east through the CWA early
this afternoon. A few thunderstorms have started to develop over
parts of central Missouri, and this area along with the eastern
Ozarks will be most favored for convection through the rest of
this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to
remain widely scattered, and most locations will remain dry. Weak
shear and only moderate instability will limit any severe weather
potential through tonight. Small hail, moderately gusty winds and
frequent lightning will still be possible with any thunderstorms,
however.

Temps tonight should fall into the low to mid 60s, with somewhat
drier air building in from the northwest. This slightly drier
airmass, along with a bit of ridging aloft, should help temper
thunderstorm chances significantly through the day Sunday. Save
for perhaps an isolated shower or storm over far southwestern
Missouri, it looks as if the Sunday will be a dry day for the vast
majority of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Models indicate a slow backing of the upper level flow from
Memorial Day through the middle of next week. The models have also
been consistent in bringing short wave energy through the central
Plains and then Mid-Mississippi Valley during the day on Memorial
Day during peak heating. This should result in at least scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity.

A stronger short wave trough will then dig and close off across
the northern Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday. This should drive
a cold front into, and eventually through the Ozarks from
Wednesday into early Thursday. This will continue the chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

Cooler weather is then expected behind the front by the end of
next week with increasing potential for dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

A weak surface cold front was pushing through the region late this
evening. Isolated storms continued across the eastern Ozarks, with
the only affect at the TAF sites was at KBBG, where a lower VFR
ceiling prevailed. These clouds will clear out later tonight between
09Z-11Z. Otherwise, light winds and VFR conditions expected at KSGF
and KJLN through the TAF period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Raberding



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