Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 152039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
239 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Surface low pressure will develop across the Plains on Saturday,
which will allow the pressure gradient to tighten across the
region. This will allow southerly winds to develop and become
gusty during the morning into the early evening hours. Wind gusts
to around 30 mph will occur at times, especially across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.

These southerly winds will help usher a warmer air mass into the
area as highs top out in the lower 60s Saturday. A dry air mass
will remain over the region and will result in afternoon humidity
values dropping into the 25 to 35 percent range Saturday
afternoon. The warm and dry conditions will combine with the
gusty winds to create an elevated fire weather risk across the
area on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

An upper level trough will spread northeast across Texas then into
the region Saturday night into Sunday. An area of light rain will
develop with the trough and spread across the area. There is a
good chance of rain with this system, but amounts will remain on
the light side with just a few tenths of an inch of rainfall
expected. Most of the rain should spread out of the area Sunday
morning, but some sprinkles/drizzle may remain possible into
Sunday night.

Overall mild and dry conditions will occur through much of next
week as highs warm into the 50s each afternoon through Thursday.
A cold front will then spread across the region late night week
and will send a much colder air mass into the area. Some light
precipitation may occur along the front late next week but at
this time any precipitation should be fairly brief and light.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Low level clouds are currently spreading south through the area
and could bring a brief period of MVFR ceilings to the TAF sites
this afternoon.

Skies will clear this evening and tonight. Low level wind shear
will be a concern late this evening through early Saturday
morning. South to southwest winds will increase and become gusty
Saturday morning.




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