Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 201101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

While heat will be the main forecast concern for today and the
next several days, there is one potential fly in the ointment for
later today. A weak short wave trough currently over northeastern
Texas will slide northeast towards the Missouri Ozarks today.
Outside of the effects of the wave, the atmosphere will be
unsupportive of convection. However, weak lift and an increase in
mid/upper level moisture is expected to be enough to initiate
isolated convection this afternoon across southwestern Missouri
and extreme southeastern Kansas. It is actually possible that too
much moisture is present and we see very little in the way of
lightning.

Otherwise, the heat will continue with highs generally in the
lower to middle 90s. Some upper 90s temperatures will again be
possible out towards I-49...but an increase in clouds this
afternoon may keep temperatures from spiking too much. We again
expect quite a bit of mixing today which will keep dew points and
heat indices somewhat in check. We may not see as much mixing over
western Missouri given an increase in cloud cover. Nevertheless,
we are still looking at afternoon heat indices ranging from 96 to
103 degrees area-wide. Lows tonight will then be in the lower to
middle 70s with dry weather expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Five wave charts continue to indicate a strong upper level ridge
centered over the eastern U.S. into this weekend. This long wave
pattern will favor a synoptic scale upper level ridge
strengthening over the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley. Hot and
dry weather will be the result from Thursday through at least
Sunday. Highs in the middle to upper 90s will be the rule with
lows in the lower to middle 70s.

This pattern remains supportive of relatively high mixing heights.
This will hold down afternoon dew points over many areas...
especially along the Ozark Plateau. Afternoon heat indices will
therefore be very similar to actual air temperatures. We may
eventually need a Heat Advisory over some areas where several
consecutive days of afternoon heat indices over 100 are expected.

Medium range models then attempt to flatten the ridge/shift it
east just enough to allow a front to seep south towards the
Ozarks. Tough to say at this point how far south it will get, but
it may at least open the door for some shower/thunderstorm
potential and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 554 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Conditions should generally remain VFR today across the region.
There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms affecting mainly
the BBG terminal, though a storm near JLN and SGF can`t be
entirely ruled out. In the end, however, potential is just too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. Amendments will be made
later today if it appears a storm will affect a given terminal.

Otherwise, the other weather concern for the day will be gusty
southwest winds from mid morning through early evening. Gusts
around 20 KT, perhaps approaching 25 KT at times, can be expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell





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