613
FXUS63 KTOP 301059
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
559 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe storms with wind gusts to 60 mph and
  very heavy rainfall are possible this morning.

- Cooler and less humid to start the week, hot and humid to end
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Early this morning a surface trough was moving into northwest
Kansas and south central Nebraska. Several complexes of
thunderstorms have developed along this trough. Instability in
the range of 2,000 to 3,000 J/Kg of ML CAPE was present along
and just ahead of this trough axis. This was leading to some
damaging wind gusts around 60 mph in south central Nebraska and
hail around an inch in diameter across northwest Kansas. Short-
term models and radar trends have the trough axis and
thunderstorms nosing into north central Kansas over the next
couple of hours. The line of storms may maintain its strength as
it enters Republic, Cloud and Ottawa Counties, but a quick
weakening of the complex is anticipated as it gets any further
east as instability falls off rapidly from west to east and it
runs into a more stable and decoupled boundary-layer. A few wind
gusts around 50-60 mph will be possible initially in
aforementioned western counties, but we should see a quick
transition from a wind threat to mainly a focus on heavy
rainfall. The trough is forecast to move south of our area by
mid afternoon. A few isolated storms may develop by the
afternoon if we can clear out and destabilize behind the
departing trough and morning complex of storms.

Cooler and less humid air will move in Monday night into
Tuesday. A pleasant day is expected for Tuesday with highs in
the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the 50s!

A slow warm-up and return to more humid conditions is expected
by the end of the week. Precipitation chances may return to the
area Thursday into Saturday as southwest flow aloft is favored
to develop and an upper-level trough may move into the central
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. A complex of
thunderstorms continues to march across central Kansas this
morning. It will continue to weaken as it pushes eastward.
Confidence is high that it will impact KMHK, but there is still
some uncertainty to how widespread and strong storms will be by
the time they reach the Topeka terminals. Therefore, a tempo
group was utilized. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible
around the Topeka terminals later this afternoon. A Prob30 group
was added to account for this.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones