Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 050922
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
422 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

CURRENTLY...STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RESPONSIBLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION NOW MOVING
INTO MY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
MOVE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET AND NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ONCE AGAIN A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH FORECAST QPF FOR
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
KEEP HIGH POPS CENTRAL INTO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE NOSE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. FOCUSED HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STRONG
MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN...SO HEAVY
RAINERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE 1-1.5K MUCAPE AND AROUND 35KTS
OF WIND SHEAR.

THE UPPER JET WILL FORCE THE STATIONARY SFC LOW FINALLY OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AFTER 00Z.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT NEAR THE TRACK OF THE BASE OF
THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
DRY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BREEZY BUT PLEASANT FOR SUNDAY AS SFC DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES FALL
FROM THE 60S AND LOW 70S WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ON
MONDAY...AREA WILL BE UNDER COOL BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING...AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. QUIET WEATHER RETURNS IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE
PASSING OVER...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

IFR-VLIFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AM
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING/REDEVELOPING CENTRAL INTO EAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



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