Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 040851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND UPSTATE VERMONT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE MID WEEK.  DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE ERN CONUS THIS MORNING.  IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WFO BTV FORECAST
AREA.  A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NRN-CNTRL NY.
THIS BOUNDARY AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION/SE ONTARIO WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SFC DEWPTS ARE STILL ELEVATED IN THE 50S TO L60S.  THE GFS/NAM
INDICATE SBCAPES ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS NRN-CNTRL
VT.  THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE WITH
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY FOCUS AT
LEAST SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THERE MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SEVERE OR TWO ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.  SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WERE USED IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOW LIKELY AND CHC VALUES WERE USED FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP
UP.  MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/..

AS OF 445 AM EDT...THE SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF THE DIURNAL HEATING TONIGHT.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
H500 TEMPS WILL BE AS COLD AS -15C TO -18C OVER NRN NY AND VT.  SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE W/SW FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY IMPACT THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND NRN DACKS.  LOW TEMPS WILL TEND TO BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S WITH A FEW COLDER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

WEDNESDAY...ALMOST A REPEAT OF TUESDAY WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING.  SPC ACTUALLY OUTLOOKS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN NY AND N-
CNTRL VT IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED.  THE
COLD POOL OF THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR AUGUST DRIFTS OVER
THE FCST AREA.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD FOCUS SCT-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.  SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE A GOOD BET AGAIN.  HAIL MAY ACTUALLY BE THE BIGGER ISSUE
WITH H500 TEMPS IN THE -17C T -19C RANGE...AND DECENT SFC HEATING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE.  HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN TUE WITH
LOWER TO M70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 60S TO AROUND 70F OVER
THE MTNS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING.  THE H500
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND.  H850 TEMPS
LOWER TO +5C TO +7C...WHICH IS 1 TO 2 STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME IN AUGUST.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER THE REGION.

THU-THU NIGHT...STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VT DUE TO THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT BREEZY AND
COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.  THE HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD IN OVER NY
AND VT THU NIGHT WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP.  TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN A TAD BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

DUE TO THE EMERGENCY BACKUP...THE LONG TERM WAS KEPT SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.

AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY...
PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ALBEIT
LESSENING INTENSITY AS WE GET TO LATE WEEK/WEEKEND.

PRETTY UNEVENTFUL...COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AUGUST SUN WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO INSTABILITY AND LOW THREAT OF ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FRI/FRI NIGHT BUT
STILL LEANING THAT WE`LL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE AT WORST...THUS
KEEPING MAINLY DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE AOB SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT ONLY A FEW
DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/40S COLD
SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR TEMPO IFR
MIST AT SLK.  MAINLY VFR TUESDAY...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

GENERALLY DRY WITH FEW TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
ENOUGH CLEARING TO PRODUCE IFR MIST AT SLK BUT WILL LIKELY
OSCILLATE.  WINDS LIGHT TO SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS.

EXPECT AN EARLIER START TIME FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...AS SOON AS 15Z.  I/VE SHOWN 6SM SHRA THRU
20Z WITH VCSH REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.  WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS.


OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA/SLW
AVIATION...LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...JMG



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