Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 290611
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROVIDE
THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT SATURDAY...CIRRUS CLOUDS THE ONLY CHANGING
PARAMETER THIS MORNING. RIDGING CONTINUES THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
FAVORABLE AREAS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR MID-UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AS WE RESIDE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONTINUING THE
WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
11-13C...WHICH SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFER ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO DIFFICULT TO
SAY EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS MOST PREVALENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12-14C. EVEN WITH
SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE
HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS
REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.
00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF


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