Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 242328
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
728 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure area will move out of the Ohio valley
slowly tracking northeastward, and bring more widespread
rainfall to the North Country Thursday afternoon through Friday.
Clouds, rain, and cool east winds off the Atlantic will keep
highs in the 60s Thursday, and 55 to 60 on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 710 PM EDT Wednesday...Isolated low-topped showers that
developed across the nrn Adirondacks and Vermont`s Northeast
Kingdom this afternoon are generally dissipating at 23Z. Last
remaining echoes per mosaic composite reflectivity are across
Orleans county east of Newport. May see a few hundreths of an
inch before activity dissipates. Otherwise, generally a quiet
night expected with early AM lows expected in the mid-50s for
the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. Will see lows in the upr
40s to lower 50s across the nrn Adirondacks and VT east of the
Greens. Winds will generally continue light sely overnight as
sfc ridge over eastern Maine weakens and low pressure pushes
into the upper OH river valley region. Will see increasing mid-
upper level clouds associated with this upstream low pressure
system during the overnight hrs, but with associated warm
frontal rains expected to hold off until the daylight hrs on
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 445 PM EDT Wednesday...During the day Thursday, vertically
stacked low pressure system will slowly track from the Ohio
river valley Northeastward towards our CWA. Light rain will
spread southwest to northeast across our forecast area,
especially after 15z. Low pressure system then tracks off the
coast of New England overnight and into the Gulf of Maine on
Friday. Two areas of deeper low level moisture will miss us, one
to our Northwest and one to our Southeast. Have lowered rainfall
totals a bit, mainly a third of an inch to an inch of rain is
expected. GFS is showing an evident dry slot moving across our
area from 18z through about 03-06z. During this time will see
some winds mix down to the surface on strong low level
east/southeast jet, strong Easterly flow will cause downsloping
in Rutland County as well as Eastern Addison and Eastern
Chittenden counties. Have issued a wind advisory, please see
NPW. As low pushes east off the New England coast Friday best
forcing goes with it and precipitation will become more showery.
Temperatures will remain mild through the period, generally 50s
at night and 60s during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday...The synoptic pattern will be
shifting towards a more pleasant weekend as vertically stacked
low pressure system will be pulling off the New England
coastline. This leaves a few scattered showers over the eastern
portion of Vermont as the moisture will be decreasing through
the evening hours. The more welcomed portion of the forecast
will be the high pressure that builds in for Memorial Day
weekend. As ridging occurs at the surface there may be a stray
shower or two but otherwise we can expect highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s with partly cloudy skies with a few breaks in the
that areal coverage.

The latest trends in the guidance has been to slow down how
quickly the next system is to move into the region. In the broad
sense, an upper level low pressure system will track west of
the Great Lakes and lift a warm front through the North Country
and then later on will swing a cold front through. The timing on
this has been even further delayed such that we may get through
much of Sunday with quiet weather and nice conditions to be
outdoors or perhaps going for a run.

Towards Sunday evening and into Monday morning, expect that
warm front to lift north and bring a chance for scattered
showers into Monday. By Monday mid-morning early afternoon a
pre- frontal trough will swing through with shortwave energy
aloft and bring showers with perhaps some embedded
thunderstorms. The GFS depicts decent instability with marginal
elevated instability along with decent 0-6km shear and moderate
lapse rates. So the idea of some showers with embedded
thunderstorms looks good based on the 12z guidance timing.
Heading into the rest of the mid week we should see a break on
Tuesday before the actual front swings through on Wednesday
renewing our chances for showers.

Temps through the period will be depend on the timing of the
fronts but the general idea is upper 60s to lower 70s for high
and lows starting off in the upper 40s over the weekend and
gradually warming to the low to mid 50s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR through much of the period, with
conditions deteriorating after 16Z Thursday. VFR expected until
16Z Thursday with SCT to occasionally broken mid to high cloud
cover generally above 070-100 AGL. Winds light, trending east to
southeasterly 5 to 10 knots overnight. After 12Z Thursday
east/southeast winds trend modest and gusty into the 15 to 25 kt
range with steadier light rains arriving from the south in the
17-21Z time frame with conditions lowering to a mix of ovc
VFR/MVFR late. Of particular concern will be the potential for
strong downsloping southeasterly flow along the immediate
western slopes of the central/southern Green Mtns. Gusts into
the 35 to 45 kt range will be possible from 18Z onward in this
area, and will likely affect the KRUT terminal. While localized,
moderate to severe turbulence will also be possible in this
area.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Localized gusts to 45 kts at KRUT through 03Z.
Rain/showers likely.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Rain/showers likely.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday
     night for VTZ011-017>019.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG


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