Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 252319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
719 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

A weak front will cross the area tonight with little fanfare
outside a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm across northern
counties. High pressure returns for Thursday with mainly dry and
seasonably warm temperatures expected. Thereafter, warm and
summerlike weather continues into the Holiday Weekend along with
moderate humidity levels. While much of the period will be dry,
there will be a daily threat of afternoon, early evening showers
and thunderstorms.


As of 656 PM EDT Wednesday...updated forecast to decrease areal
coverage of showers and thunderstorms and remove mention of gusty
winds. water vapor shows deep layer aloft across our
region...which has suppressed any convective development. best
combination of dynamics associated with tail of 5h vort and some
limited 850 to 500mb moisture will be across northern vt into the
northeast kingdom through 03z. have continued to mention chance
pops with slight chance of current radar shows
two weak cells approaching the international border. utilizing the
distance arrival tool has them approaching our border by 00z. will
continue to monitor for potential lightning...but so far nothing
noted. rest of forecast in good shape.

By later tonight skies gradually trend mostly clear and winds
become light as surface high pressure returns to the region. Some
patchy fog will be possible in any areas that do receive rainfall
this evening, with highest probabilities across northeastern VT.
Low temperatures a blend of bias-corrected and MOS-based guidance,
generally from 45 to 55 with some variability.

On Thursday surface high pressure returns to the region along with
mainly sunny skies and light winds. Model-averaged 925 mb
temperatures run about a degree or two cooler than today, so little
airmass change expected with afternoon highs continuing in the upper
70s to lower 80s for most spots. By later in the day a gradual
increase in moisture is expected across the western portions of the
forecast area in northern NY. Some model differences on how robust
this process is, it being dependent on the future evolution of the
ridge axis transitioning to our east over time.  At this point have
introduced lower end chances of precipitation from the Adirondacks
west into the southern SLV from mid-afternoon onward to account for
this uncertainty. Regardless, most of the day will be dry.


As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...A warm front will traverse across
the North Country Thursday night through Friday, producing showers
and thunderstorms with the best chance for thunderstorms occurring
Friday afternoon. PWATS increase to 1-1.5 inches which could help
showers and thunderstorms create periods of heavy rain. NAM BUFKIT
forecast sounding profiles show CAPE values greater than 1000J/kg
with enough daytime heating to reach convective temperatures. This
along with possible elevated mixed layer that will move across the
St Lawrence Valley and Northern tier of CWA support potential for
convection on Friday. Caveat being lack of lift on Friday, so will
mainly rely on heating and moist atmosphere.

Showers, clouds and warmer air filtering in will keep min
temperatures Thursday night in the 50s to low 60s. 925mb
temperatures increase into the low 20s on Friday, resulting in
maxes in the 70s to mid 80s.

Friday night will see showers and thunderstorms diminish with
nocturnal cooling settling in and ridging aloft begins to build to
our south and east. Min temperatures will remain above normal,
generally in the 60s.


As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...Unsettled weather expected
throughout the long term as we remain on the periphery of the
upper ridge. This will result in chance for showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon, throughout the
holiday weekend. Max temperatures on Saturday will be in the 80s
with some spots in the southern valleys nearing 90 when the upper
ridge axis begins to crest over the region.

On Sunday, upper level disturbances will move into the region
keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms. While upstream,
upper level shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region,
reflected at the surface as a gradually strengthening low pressure
system. This system will drag a cold front across the area Monday
with showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, models
diverge on how dry conditions will be.

Overall, above normal temperatures continue with summer-like
conditions...aka showers and thunderstorm potential.


.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR expected through the period. A weak
frontal boundary has passed through the region and winds have
shifted to northwesterly at 05-10 knots and will go light and
variable overnight before resuming lightly out of the north
friday morning. There is a small window for potential fog at SLK
from 09-11z and possible IFR conditions along with that.
Confidence is not high at this time so have gone with a MVFR in
the taf to reflect the potential.

Outlook 18Z Thursday through Monday...

18Z Thu onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest
coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday
time frame.




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