Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 161439
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
939 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough and surface low passing northwest of the region
will bring scattered snow showers to the North Country through
the rest of the morning with little accumulation. A brief ridge
of high pressure will bring a quiet end to the weekend on
Sunday, before the pattern becomes active again next week with
several chances for precipitation, especially on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 933 AM EST Saturday...Seeing some partial clearing at
1430Z in valley locations downwind of the Adirondacks and
central/srn Green Mtns per recent visible satellite imagery in
prevailing WNWLY flow regime. Just a few lingering orographic
snow showers remain in the Adirondacks (around KSLK) and
n-central/nern VT (EFK/MVL/CDA). Any accumulation generally less
than 0.5", except perhaps an inch or so at Jay Peak. Drier air
is filtering in from sern Ontario, so should see a gradual
reduction in snow shower activity and clouds thru the remainder
of the daylight hrs. All in all, a typical December day with
aftn temps in the mid to upper 20s.

As we head into the evening hours, a ridge will build into the
North Country and lead to cold temps again overnight with mostly
clear skies and light winds. Expect lows overnight again in the
single digits above and below zero. Sunday should be fairly
quiet as well as the ridge departs to our east under partly cloudy
skies and temps on the cooler side with highs generally in the
teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday...Increasing clouds and precipitation
chances expected for Sunday night and Monday as a warm front
crosses the region. Temperatures will moderate somewhat Sunday
night , but it will still be a chilly night, particularly in far
northern NY and VT. The bulk of the warm air arrives on Monday,
which will see highs ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s.
There`s not much moisture with this system, so snowfall will be
light; most areas will see around an inch at best.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday....The warming trend continues
through Tuesday as the North Country remains under broad southwest
flow. Precipitation will be likley through mid week, particularly
Tuesday into Tuesday night as a cold front and upper trough swing
across the region. Temperatures will be warm enough Tuesday
afternoon for snow to mix with and/or change over to rain. Colder
air spills into the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
frontal passage, turning any lingering rain showers back to snow.
Snow showers will continue over the favored areas as the region is
under northwest flow, but an influx of drier air will bring these to
an end by Thursday. Our next system approaches from the Great Lakes
later Thursday night into Friday. There are the usual model
differences on the details, but current indications are low pressure
will track up along the Saint Lawrence Valley sometime Friday or
Friday night. The associated warm advection precip will move into
the region Friday morning and continue through the day. At this time
temperatures look marginal, with perhaps a bit of rain mixing in
across the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Generally looking at improving flight
conditions to VFR by mid morning at all sites. Light snow
continues at SLK and has been reducing visibilities to IFR.
Anticipate IFR to continue through 13-14z before improving to
VFR by 17z. Elsewhere ceilings are already lifting with MVFR at
MSS and VFR everywhere else. Winds are in the process of
shifting from light south/southwest to west/northwest at 5-10
knots with gusts to 15 knots between 18-00z across NY taf sites.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Deal



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